cjdrum wrote:It's actually slightly more, because if the goon is lynched then there's a higher chance of hitting the Kingpin. Especially with voting patterns and whatnot.
In practice? Sure. The goon isn't going to vote his kingpin either. EV is all about theory, however.
cjdrum wrote:The odds of hitting the Kingpin, with these things in mind and assuming random lynching, is 1/6 + 1/5 + 1/4, about 0.62.
The odds of town winning are as follows:
d1: 1/6 chance of lynching the kingpin d1 = 1/6
d2: 5/6 chance of not lynching the kingpin d1 multiplied by a 1/5 chance of lynching the kingpin d2 = 1/6
d3: 5/6 chance of not lynching the kingpin d1 multiplied by a 4/5 chance of not lynching the kingpin d2 multiplied by a 1/4 chance of lynching the kingpin d3 = 1/6
So actually the town's EV increases by 1/6 for each game day, giving us a total EV of 3/6 or 0.5.