NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[kanyeknowsbest]

help i cant sleep also i remembered i need to do this

JUST IN CASE

unvote

[MrZepher]

And basically confirming night kills and vig shots looks bad.

what?

Poor choice of words on my part, I was tired as shit. I was talking about where he said

...
Idher is dead tonight. However, there's NOTHING that can prevent that shot. So, I say one of LLD, Zeph, Kunk get lynched and the other shot. Personal preference is LLD lynch and Zeph shot by a small margin over kunk.
...

I didn't like this, and not because It's me getting shot, it just feels like SpyreX is psuedo-starting a vigpool.

As for my reads....
uhhhh lessee

Likely Scum:
Mastin
Ludi
SpyreX - I haven't taken my own time to evaluate this. I'm taking from other people's arguments and forming an opinion here.

Maybe Scum?:
LLD
KKB

Null:
Kunkstar - Idk what it is about his claiming tree stump that I'm just like... hmmmmm.... He's more town than scum, but still.

Town:
Oversoul
Idher

[SpyreX]

Mastin AND Ludi are scum?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mastin AND Ludi are scum?

[MrZepher]

It's either or, I just don't want to take part in Mastin's gambit at the moment, not until I get a better sense of what's going on here.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

It's either or, I just don't want to take part in Mastin's gambit at the moment, not until I get a better sense of what's going on here.

So wait.

You believe that one of Mastin and Ludi is scum. Just one.

And you want to lynch OUTSIDE the 50/50 (from your perspective) in favor of another lynch?

[SpyreX]

Someone got hotfoot scoop scoop.

Unvote, Vote: Zepher

[mastin2]

The Zepher wagon is MadeOfFail.

It's Ludi or Me.

No. Alternatives.

[MrZepher]

It's either or, I just don't want to take part in Mastin's gambit at the moment, not until I get a better sense of what's going on here.

So wait.

You believe that one of Mastin and Ludi is scum. Just one.

And you want to lynch OUTSIDE the 50/50 (from your perspective) in favor of another lynch?

No, I was kind of explaining why my vote isn't on either of the two at the moment...
I'm not necessarily in favor of another lynch at the moment, I just want to make sure that I'm putting my vote on the right person, get it?

It's because of my post #1513 that you're like "wait, wut?", right?
That was in response to I believe KKB's vote on me. While I think voting off the wagon has information, I'm pretty sure ONE of the two is scum
I have no idea of which one is more likely scum. Mastin is being... Mastin.... so it's hard to tell.

I can feel how not coherent my thoughts are here.

[kanyeknowsbest]

give us your reads please lambda!!! THANK YOU

[MrZepher]

Someone got hotfoot scoop scoop.

Unvote, Vote: Zepher

really?

I don't even have to explain how terribad this is.


Also, I asked you a question.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Kanye:

I thought that You Kunk and Mastin were the mafia coming into today.

Mastin's gambit + Oversoul being bad + Zepher being bad, + your play today has made me reevaluate.

I'm now leaning something like:

One of ML/Mastin
Oversoul
Zepher

[kanyeknowsbest]

whats your read on spyrex? who do you think is more likely to be scum between ludi and mastin? do you believe kunk's claim?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

whats your read on spyrex? who do you think is more likely to be scum between ludi and mastin? do you believe kunk's claim?

In Order:

SpyreX is in the middle for me. I mean, he pushed the Bookie stuff... but he also saw what I did in Zepher's post.

I DID think Mastin at the beginning of today, but Ludi REALLY HAS been flailing. :S

I meant to say in my last post that Treestump is a provable claim, and I believe it, hence Kunk town now.

[kanyeknowsbest]

given the choice between lynching zepher and ludi today, who would you choose?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

given the choice between lynching zepher and ludi today, who would you choose?

Ludi.

[SpyreX]

You didn't ask a question. You went "ohh god why am I scum I dont understaaand" and then backtracked way back from "Mastin and Ludi are scum and SpyreX is because other people said so" to "One of Mastin AND Ludi is scum but I dont want to figure out which one now"

Which is super cool when Mastin and Ludi are town.

[kunkstar7]

Zepher's post with reads was way too passive, putting both Mastin and Ludi in scum, not taking a hard stance on my claim, and slotting two more people under "maybe scum?", it reads like someone testing waters, which right now is scummy.

KKB needs to start putting some conclusions together as well because you are asking a lot of "questions", but not really going anywhere with them. Decide Ludi or Mastin, then decide former or LLD.

To be honest, I don't see the Mastin or Ludi ONLY deal. Explain Mastin(succinctly, one or two sentences preferably), why you two apparently have to be of opposing alignments. I can read the rest of your arguments with this summary in mind.

[Magister Ludi]

One of

ML

/Mastin
Oversoul
Zepher

Nice reads! I agree here.

I DID think Mastin at the beginning of today, but Ludi REALLY HAS been flailing. :S

Not really, i've been trying to simulatenously defend myself against a wagon I think is mostly scum driven (mastin and oversoul), and defend yopu aginst your wagon. I think you should join me Mr. Zepher wagon.

[kanyeknowsbest]

dont worry kunkster, im makin conclusions.

scum distancing from bookied target after bookie has been established: "dont lynch hes bookied"
not scum distancing from bookied target after bookie has been established: "i dont think hes scum"
zephyr gets town points from me as he wanted to give empking the benefit of the doubt. youll recall this is also one of the tells that got me to stop thinking hiraki was scum.

similarly on the empking wagon, mastin preferred instead to vote me because of kanye vs chair.

people who were immediately on the empking lynch? spyrex and koc. right out the gate. the rest of his posting for that day is pretty fluff. also he notes that whoever comes in to quickhammer empking is scum. saporo does this and he doesnt mention it the next day. while im talking about koc, kid was way eager to back me up on the yosarian "scum slip" thing. the way he backed off of it was a little disconcerting too.

town

amrun - conftown

kunkstar - i dont think he lying. he can stump if we get to mylo if we doubt the validity of his claim later.

oversoul - he

believed

i was scum as hard as he could after the chair lynch until some point today. it (unfortunately) showed in his reactions to me elsewhere but thats.. well.

zepher - if ludi and zepher are scum then he has been bussing him since he replaced in. i doubt that. also his reaction to empking wagon. pretty shitty hes town but whatevs.

mastin - either town or a mega scum gambit. im inclined to believe town as it makes more sense despite the amount of town wagons hes been on and ythans role fishing d1.

scum

spyrex - remember near the end of d3 when things were winding up and it looked pretty imminent that chair was getting lynched? remember that weird ass little "oh my god youre so town or a mafia genius" spiel spy threw at oversoul? that shit did not feel right. it felt like he was trying to cuddle up to newbie town to score townpoints with said town. man, even now i really want spychan to be town, but i just cant believe it now. every setup i can imagine being viable for where we are in this gamestate revolves around spyrex being scum, and it is just backed up by several other tiny little things in his play that make sense when you say, "oh, spyrex isnt town at all. hes scum."

Why was it obvious Idher was the vig? (I actually thought it was you KKB until you claimed).

if spyrex is scum and this statement is true, then i am alive because they did not think i would shoot scum. i indicated zepher/kunkstar as my secondary scum targets after chair. i indicated spyrex as strong town, mastin and ludi as leaning town and lld as null.

ludi - consider the shit i wrote about koc above and that your interactions with mastin are just so scummy. ive gone back and forth on this a lot in my head, but considering spyscum and the way he was convinced koc was town for little reason (i never really understood that town read) and the fact that you say you think mastin is scum but you talk to him like hes town just makes it clear that you are scum scum scum. thats the big clincher for me btw. you believe (or know as the case may be) hes town, but say you think hes scum and call him scum.

lambda - this is mainly poe. if im right about the scum team then she is willing to bus ludi going so far as preferring ludi to zephyr (who i contest is the scum mislynch of choice today.) similarly, spyrex opened the day prepared to bus her.


so basically, heres what i think: mastin is either town with spy/ludi/lambda, or mastin is scum gambitting for town points and a free bookie shot with spy/ludi/mastin

i think spy/ludi/lambda is the more likely situation given that these theories place 5 town on lld's L-1 wagon. it would have been too easy for scum to have a reason to make that hammer if she was town, and the chair wagon was far from certain at that point.

so the question then is who do i wish to see lynched? spy is the easy choice given a large amount of my thinking relies on him being scum. but i still have to consider how convinced i was that he was town until the end of d3, and if by some miracle the other flips we get somehow turn this read around i would rather he still be alive tomorrow to decide for sure then. especially when i consider that i feel a ludi flip would inform this strongly. ludi is the other option, but the problem here is the threat of mastin being scum. i dont think mastin is a good choice.

speaking of a ludi lynch, hey mastin, i agree with you ludi needs to die. i think youre town and youre bein legit here, but you see, im terrified of that bookie (shakin in my fuckin boots.) that tiny chance that youre scum with a bookie shot locked and loaded. so lets not lynch him today. instead lets vig him. idher, youre okay with lynching ludi, can we vig him instead? we get virtually the same effect as lynching him but we remove a dangerous possibility.


~in conclusion~
i think that the best and safest possible play for us today in terms of gathering information is a lambda lynch with a ludi vig. there is zero doubt in my mind that at least one of them is scum.

vote lambadelta

[Oversoul]

Ludi, I voted you for 1386, 1388, and 1391 combine that with KoC's diehard trying to get Parabollocks killed and then joining the Untrod Wagon from out of nowhere after suspecting Idher and Para...

You're using AtE a lot with your dealings with Mastin and it is pretty distracting. Also, you're wasting your time trying to scumhunt me, which is another reason why I suspect you, but more so LLD for that same offence.

After looking at Saporo/LLD I am more inclined to vote her. Ludi, your replace in confidence that Zepher is scum has been eclipsed by Mastin pushing for your lynch and then his lynch. Do you find him that much more scummy?

UNVOTE:

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Huh, what?

When did I become scum Kayne?

Further, if I'm only scum by PoE how am I your safest play today? Considering that you're guaranteed not 100%, you must be wrong about someone.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

AND LOOK AT THAT.

The second Kanye votes me, Oversoul pops up to jump on the NEW wagon of the day.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Actually... Oversoul was just on the Zepher wagon right?

...

Unvote; Vote: Ludi

[Oversoul]

Actually... Oversoul was just on the Zepher wagon right?

...

Unvote; Vote: Ludi

What wagon am I on? if anything, I would be returning to my original voting place for the day.

Reasoning why you chose Ludi over Mastin?