Mafia Invictus ~ Game Over!

[DrippingGoofball]

I love Nautilius, but Nautilius needs death.

I'm sorry you got a scum PM, Elli.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah I know I have a workman in the house installing a new kitchen.

Can you do me a favor?

Please list all the wagons at their peaks. I'll do the rest.

I have a meeting coming up. I'll try to round it up for you this afternoon, ok?

[DrippingGoofball]

Deal! I will be around.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wagons at their height –

Day 1

Fate RVS Wagon (6) - Quilford, DrippingGoofball, Gut, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, danceHello

Spyrex DERP Wagon (10) - Nautilius, Zachrulez, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, Ban, danceHello, Gut, DrippingGoofball, Fate, silavor

Day 2

Silavor Day 2 Wagon Part 1 (7) - Fate, Gammagooey, Duplicity, Benmage, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, MagnaofIllusion

MoI Day 2 Wagon Part 1 (8) - Fate, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, silavor, danceHello, Gut, Gammagooey, Zachrulez

MoI Day 2 Wagon Part 2 (8) - Fate, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, silavor, danceHello, Gut, Gammagooey, Nautilius

Silavor Day 2 Wagon Part 2 (9) - Duplicity, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, Ban, Baby Spice, The Illuminati, Zachrulez, Gammagooey, Fate

Day 3

Guts wagon Day 3 (6) - Zachrulez, The Illuminati, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, DrippingGoofball, Duplicity

MoI wagon Day 3 (6) - Fate, VitaminR, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, Gut, Gammagooey

[DrippingGoofball]

The main frame is being fired up!

[DrippingGoofball]

Day 1

Assumption: 4 scums out of 19 players
21% scum by chance
I'm not counting the RVS Fate wagon, it's too dependent on when people showed up in the game.

21% of 10 players to start, so 2 scums.

Spyrex

DERP Wagon (10) - Nautilius, Zachrulez, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, Ban,

danceHello

, Gut,

DrippingGoofball

, Fate,

silavor

2 scums out of these players (28 points)

Nautilius
Zachrulez
Tarhalindur
VitaminR
Ban
Gut
Fate

Day 2

Day 2 would have 16 players, 4 scumz.
40% scum per wagon by chance.
There is a lot of overlap in the MoI wagons, I don't want to double-count, so I'll count every one ONCE. Same with silavor wagon. Everyone gets counted once.

MoI Day 2 Wagon Part 1 & 2 merged (9) - Fate, Tarhalindur, VitaminR,

silavor

,

danceHello

, Gut, Gammagooey, Zachrulez. Nautilius

This wagon is 36% scum with 9 original players, so 3.2 scums on this wagon. (45 points)

Fate
Tarhalindur
VitaminR
Gut
Gammagooey
Zachrulez
Nautilius

silavor

Day 2 Wagon Part 2 (9) - Duplicity, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, Ban,

Baby Spice

, The Illuminati, Zachrulez, Gammagooey, Fate

This wagon is 36% scum with 9 original players, so 3.2 scums on this wagon. (40 points)

Duplicity
Benmage
MagnaofIllusion
Ban
The Illuminati
Zachrulez
Gammagooey
Fate

Day 3

This is very unnusual, we're divided halfway so it's not an informative day without a flip. I'm leaving it for reference.

Guts wagon Day 3 (6) - Zachrulez, The Illuminati, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion,

DrippingGoofball

, Duplicity

MoI wagon Day 3 (6) - Fate, VitaminR, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, Gut, Gammagooey

113 Zachrulez
113 Fate

85 Gammagooey

73 Nautilius
73 Tarhalindur
73 VitaminR
73 Gut

68 Ban

40 Duplicity
40 Benmage
40 MagnaofIllusion
40 The Illuminati

[MagnaofIllusion]

DGB's absolute Town for this last exercise. I specifically gave her every wagon and she properly excluded the Fate RVS and the doubled Silavor / MoI wagons.

Interesting that Zach and Fate both show up as the top outputs and both are Town reads for me. I'm guessing that my 'Hiding in Town reads' scum is one of those two ...

[DrippingGoofball]

OPERATOR COMMENTS

Judging by these results,

Gut

is a better lynch than

MoI

. That's also true if you take a minute to iso

Gut

and meta against

chamber

alone, or

CES

alone. It's been a COMPLETELY OPAQUE, ZERO EFFORT game for the accursed hydra.

Zachrulez

... looks like the scum won't bus him.

Gammagooey

... scum having a ball.

You have to wonder why these two players haven't gotten wagoned and

MoI

comes to an inch of his life every day.

Fate

is a heavy wagoner, so his high number might be biased by his meta.

Nautilius

iz scumorz come on.

Tarhalindur

- lots of role speculation at first, I was convinced he was prepping the room for a FLYING PUMPKIN SHOOTING LAZERZ claim. Bodyguard. Bodyguard??? That's IT??????

VitaminR

- Could be the scumteam member trying to look consistent. Is very consistent.

Gut

- So scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

SCUM IS:

Zachrulez
Gammagooey
Nautilius
with a dash of {Tarhalindur, VitaminR, Gut}

NONE OF THESE PLAYERS HAVE BEEN WAGONED. OR INVICTUS'ed.

COINCIDENCE???

I THINK NOT

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: Zachrulez

The scumputer thanks you for your patience.

[Fate]

Fuck any computer that has me as scum and MoI as town.

It analyses wagon behavior NOT sheer scummkiness.

For
FUCKS

SAKE

[DrippingGoofball]

Fate, I have terrible news.

[Benmage]

First glance and the computer still looks retarded.

MoI I derailed for ya before... tar might want to hang today instead of you... no need to rush.

All should have 2-3 invictus

invictus, gut Nautilus, Tar

[Fate]

If its "I'm not voting MoI ever" then save it.

Now you're not getting Illuminati invictus EITHER.

We had a fucking deal

[MagnaofIllusion]

First glance and the computer still looks retarded.

MoI I derailed for ya before... tar might want to hang today instead of you... no need to rush.

All should have 2-3 invictus

invictus, gut Nautilus, Tar

Ben

- do you like normal VC analysis? If so then don't knock the Scum-puter. I'm just now getting to understand how it works. Go look at Cyclical Experiment 1.0 where as Serial Killer she used to to nail the scum (and would have won if she hadn't gambitted with her claimed abilities).

I also think that Invictus group is way solid.

[Fate]

Invictus groups are fine, someone update the VC to include multiple votes

[DrippingGoofball]

First glance and the computer still looks retarded.

WTF

This is my best scumputer EVA

I'm actually CALCULATING the scum proportions instead of pulling the numbers out of my recycling box.

[DrippingGoofball]

If its "I'm not voting MoI ever" then save it.

Now you're not getting Illuminati invictus EITHER.

We had a fucking deal

IS THAT HOW IT'S GOING TO BE

I'm on the phone with my lawyers

[Fate]

BRING IT GOOF GALL

ILL BE INVIDICATED

[DrippingGoofball]

Fate

You have to forsake Satan

[Gammagooey]

Gut - So scum.

Zachrulez
Gammagooey
Nautilius
with a dash of {Tarhalindur, VitaminR,

Gut

}

NONE OF THESE PLAYERS HAVE BEEN WAGONED.

(A vote for Zach that I'm too lazy to go find)

Zach is town, why don't you invite him for a cup of tea and a nice chat, instead of voting him?

DGB I am legit confused.

I know your scumputer is generally somewhere between decent and quite good at finding scums but isn't that after you account for a few town reads in the higher computations?

I should probably talk to MoI some in a bit too.

[Tarhalindur]

Since this Gut wagon isn't going away and Gut has outed himself as mainly CES, I went back and reread Gut.

Yeah, Gut's town for the exact same damn reason that MoI is scum. EXACT SAME DAMN REASON.

Seriously, folks. He's an obvious counterwagon. ANOTHER obvious counterwagon. Why the hell isn't MoI dead yet?

---

Wagons at their height –

Day 1

Fate RVS Wagon (6) - Quilford, DrippingGoofball, Gut, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, danceHello

Spyrex DERP Wagon (10) - Nautilius, Zachrulez, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, Ban, danceHello, Gut, DrippingGoofball, Fate, silavor

Day 2

Silavor Day 2 Wagon Part 1 (7) - Fate, Gammagooey, Duplicity, Benmage, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, MagnaofIllusion

MoI Day 2 Wagon Part 1 (8) - Fate, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, silavor, danceHello, Gut, Gammagooey, Zachrulez

MoI Day 2 Wagon Part 2 (8) - Fate, Tarhalindur, VitaminR, silavor, danceHello, Gut, Gammagooey, Nautilius

Silavor Day 2 Wagon Part 2 (9) - Duplicity, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, Ban, Baby Spice, The Illuminati, Zachrulez, Gammagooey, Fate

Day 3

Guts wagon Day 3 (6) - Zachrulez, The Illuminati, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, DrippingGoofball, Duplicity

MoI wagon Day 3 (6) - Fate, VitaminR, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, Gut, Gammagooey

Whee, wagon analysis! I want in on this!

Operating assumptions:

1) Scum stayed the hell of the tail end of the SpySpy wagon. Why would scum put themselves out in the open at the tail end of a DERP wagon
2) Silavor composite wagon D2 was heavily scum-driven, since there was effectively no risk to scum for being on due to broad consensus that silavor needed to die. This applies even if the silavor wagon wasn't the counterwagon I think it is - the main differences that a MoI flip would indicate are whether there were three or four scum on silavor (three if MoI town, four otherwise) whether the scum are on the silavor wagon early (if MoI is scum) or late (if MoI is town - scum wouldn't have much reason to care about which wagon to be on if MoI is town and could just pile on whichever one was going through). Note that Gamma looks really bad either way, but worse if MoI is town.

I REALLY need to get time later today to template "common wagons" - the player base is pretty obviously split into two distinct groups (plus DGB) based on which wagon players were on yesterday/are on today (and whether players were on SpySpy D1, since most of the players in group 2 are conspicuously off that wagon), and I'm pretty sure one of the groups has a lot of scum (3 or more) in it.

Please don't lynch before I do that.

[Tarhalindur]

First glance and the computer still looks retarded.

MoI I derailed for ya before... tar might want to hang today instead of you... no need to rush.

All should have 2-3 invictus

invictus, gut Nautilus, Tar

Oh look who starts to push me once he gets cover to do so from the Wagonalysis Scumputer.

Not surprised in the slightest.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Keep ignoring your scummy as hell "WHY DID YOU LYNCH SPYREX OH MY GOD" response and the accusations that your play this game hasn't remotely resembled anyone wanting to draw a NK Tar.

The 'Head in Sand" defense is working for you well.

[DrippingGoofball]

...but isn't that after you account for a few town reads in the higher computations?

I did.

But there's been a lot of monkeying around in this game, like lulzwagonhammerz, claimless hammers, Tar breadcrumbing Flying Pumpkin, opaque hydras, daily MoI to L-1 but scum won't lulzhammer no more.