Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[Amrun]

Yeah, no. Andrew has been pretty scummy up to this point, though this weird self-voting thing is throwing me off. It could be a gambit.

[zMuffinMan]

Nope.

[Amrun]

Well I'm not auto lynching anyone. That is not a good idea.

[chkflip]

VOTE: zMuffinMan

One of the four is hardcore lying. Pretty sure it's MuffDiverMan.

[andrew94]

betting no1 will volunteer

[chkflip]

I don't understand how town was convinced that this was a worthwhile plan to begin with.

"HEY GUIEZ LETS ALL CLAIM OUR PR'S AND THEN WE KNOW WHO TO--"

Shut the fuck up.

[andrew94]

volunteer?

[chkflip]

I love how Muffin RVS votes andrew, later comes to say "That and ANDREW IS SCUM" and then flip-flops to "YEAH I THINK THEY'RE BOTH TOWN."

GTFO scum.

[andrew94]

HE CLAIMED PR

[zMuffinMan]

Look.

I'll make this very simple.

I am awesome and cool and you should listen to me.

andrew and hoopla are town, I'm town, and chkflip is an idiot but he's probably town. This game is so very, very simple.

Someone from the vig pool volunteers to be the lynch today. Hider hides behind one of the players in the lynch pool tonight. det-psych can do whatever they want, and HT can just sit there and be awesome like me. The vig pool is still diluted enough that scum don't have a great shot at hitting the vig tonight. Hider will likely confirm one of the lynch pool players as town. And if scum take a shot at the PRs, there's a chance they hit the hider (i.e. they don't hit anything at all). In the mean time, the vig has a better shot at hitting scum with one less person in the vig pool.

Now, this plan has a chance of backfiring if I'm wrong about Hoopla or andrew. But I doubt I am. Why? Because I am awesome and cool. Duh.

Stop arguing with me and do what I say.

[MrBump]

Deadline in four days, btw.

Vote Count 1.10

andrew94 - 3

(andrew94, DarkFlashlight, Amrun)

Quilford - 1

(coventry)

jakesh97 - 1

(silverbullet)

neil1333 - 1

(Quilford)

Hoopla - 1

(glowball)

zMuffinMan - 1

(chkflip)

Not Voting:

neil1113, Hoopla, Oversoul

With twelve alive, it takes

seven

to lynch! The deadline is on the 18th of July at 16:47 GMT!

[chkflip]

HE CLAIMED PR

AND ONE OF THEM'S A DOGSHIT EATING LIAR, DUMBASS.

[neil1113]

Lol so much WIFOM in your plans Muffin. You might want to really reconsider your reads, or rather how you have drawn conclusions.

[zMuffinMan]

No. I might not want to do that.

The only way I could be wrong in how this plan plays out is if I'm wrong about Hoopla or andrew.

Do you think one of them is scum, neil?

[zMuffinMan]

Wait, I just realised...

I love how Muffin RVS votes andrew, later comes to say "That and ANDREW IS SCUM" and then flip-flops to "YEAH I THINK THEY'RE BOTH TOWN."

GTFO scum.

You hosted 305 and you're saying that? REALLLLLLY?

[Amrun]

Your plan sucks because there is no scum motivation to volunteer at this point. Scum's just sitting back hoping we do this plan.t

[zMuffinMan]

...............................................................

No, that's not a valid objection to what I said, unless you think one of Hoopla or andrew is scum.

[DarkFlashlight]

First off, though, I want to hear whether people think this is two townies in the lynch pool.

Probably, not definitely.

One person from the vig-pool volunteers themselves, we lynch them today, no questions asked.

That way you can lynch three townies total!

Because it keeps two nigh conf-town alive while killing off someone who may be gambiting scum volunteering themselves because they think I'm not serious and it'll make them seem like town sacrificing themselves for the cause.

You know, that logic doesn't work if you explain it.

Pretty sure it's MuffDiverMan.

OR, you could

not

sabotage the whole goddamn thing, wait till D3, and be much more sure. Whether you wanted to or not, we already claimed, don't disregard that.

Hider hides behind one of the players in the lynch pool tonight. det-psych can do whatever they want, and HT can just sit there and be awesome like me. The vig pool is still diluted enough that scum don't have a great shot at hitting the vig tonight. Hider will likely confirm one of the lynch pool players as town. And if scum take a shot at the PRs, there's a chance they hit the hider (i.e. they don't hit anything at all). In the mean time, the vig has a better shot at hitting scum with one less person in the vig pool.

There are two people in the lynch pool. If hider did that, there's a 50% chance of two town dying, including a PR, and then having to rotate someone else into the lynch pool to fulfill enough lynches. If we do that along with swapping a vig pooler into the lynch pool to lynch today, we could have 4 in the lynch pool (counting dead), 4 in the vig pool by D2. Both scum are hypothetically in the vig pool, since the only reason you want to swap a person right now is because you don't think there are any in the lynch pool, so 2 scum, 1 vig, 1 townie in a single pool. Four in vig pool by N2 is the same as starting with 5, AKA the 4/5 split [later 3/5] that we decided against.


I don't know why you're semi-conftowning Hoopla and Andrew. Hoopla hasn't even posted all that much not related to technical blatherings.

[Coventry]

I am curious.

At this point, if we were to follow zMuffinMan’s plan, we would in effect be creating a new pool. This pool is town confirmed not by power role claim but by demonstrated willingness to die in service to the town.

He would like us to maintain this pool of non-power-role claiming but “proven” to be town while diminishing the vig pool exclusively. Which would mean, by my way of thinking, 2 dead from the vig pool by the end of the night and, even if this experiment wasn’t repeated, so long as the vig survived the first night, one more dead the second.

And understand that this experiment cannot safely be repeated. It is essential to lynch someone from the “Confirmed by willingness to Sacrifice themselves” pool , at least for everyone in town who is not Hoopla, Andrew and zMuffin. However town your read is on any or all of these three, to not do so would be to absolutely put your faith in a plan conceived by Hoopla and modified by zMuffin in a way that would make sure Hoopla remained safe from lynch while he remained safe by virtue of having claimed a power role. The original plan is stripped of its entire original utility, because there are no longer two ever-drying pools but instead one rapidly drained pool (where, incidentally, the town’s most powerful power role is located) and one artificially protected one.

It is changed from what Hoopla described as a suboptimal plan for scum to use into an optimal plan, because with zMuffin’s design change it:

1. Identifies three out of four power roles.
2. Creates a pool where a bad guy or two could safely hide from both lynch and vig through day one.
3. Shields another bad guy through at least the first day by virtue of a power claim.

Upon replacing, when I first read the rather intense discussion between Hoopla, zMuffin and a couple of others about the shape this plan would take I found myself hoping that Hoopla would have a clean claim for a power role. When she did not I was happy she volunteered for the lynch pool, because that guaranteed at least the alignment of her plan, especially with the lynch pool containing only two members. Now, if we follow zMuffin's lead, the lynch pool will be the safest place to be.

So the real question is do we have enough faith that zMuffin, Hoopla and Andrew are town that we're willing to bet the fate of the town on it, when the possible prize is still a dead townsperson, and a somewhat smaller vig pool.

Either the plan is good as it stands, and it rather seems to me that it is (I would have preferred a three person lynch pool to begin with, because then I think it would have been almost certain to lure a bad guy, unlike zMuffin’s current plan, which will definitely result in a town death). Because this is bad enough reasoning and obviously bad enough reasoning to be almost nonsensical:

Because it keeps two nigh conf-town alive while killing off someone who may be gambiting scum volunteering themselves because they think I'm not serious and it'll make them seem like town sacrificing themselves for the cause.

The chance for that was in the initial pool, and not now. This proposal just doesn’t seem to pass the sniff test.

[glowball]

Yeah zMuffinMan is losing it and I want Hoopla lynched. She called for this plan, and I want to know whether or not the idea was birthed from town or scum.

[Oversoul]

Yeah, no. Andrew has been pretty scummy up to this point, though this weird self-voting thing is throwing me off. It could be a gambit.

He didn't vote himself?

He hasn't really contributed to anything, but that is his style of play. I am with him in another game and he is acting the same way. Unless he is scum in both game, it is probably the way he participates. I hate using meta, but Andrew... hasn't given much other than meta to analyze.

Also, are you really his sister?

VOTE: Andrew for not really doing anything this game. :\

With zMuffinMan's plan, wouldn't we be going behind Hoopla's back about the plan and essentially stopping the whole thing that we have wasted so much time preparing for?

[Amrun]

i volunteer.
i guess hoopla looks pro town

unvote vote andrew

He actually did self-vote...

And I am a lot more familiar with andrew's meta than you. I've nailed him as scum before. That being said, he is borderline with his meta, not playing strongly towards either way.

Coventry has nailed the prblems with zmuffin's plan.

[Quilford]

WE COULD JUST FUCKING NL.

RIGHT?

[zMuffinMan]

Coventry hasn't nailed crap to do with my plan.

Which would mean, by my way of thinking, 2 dead from the vig pool by the end of the night and, even if this experiment wasn’t repeated, so long as the vig survived the first night, one more dead the second.

The original plan only had 5 in the vig pool. It was modified to have 6 in the vig pool because of the possibility of all 3 scum hiding in the vig pool and having a relatively good guess at who the vig is. But here's the thing. There can only be 2 scum max in the vig pool now. So, effectively, lessening the vig pool to 5 while lynching a volunteer means that

nothing changes...

The only thing that changes is we have 2 prob-town players still alive tomorrow.

The original plan is stripped of its entire original utility, because there are no longer two ever-drying pools but instead one rapidly drained pool (where, incidentally, the town’s most powerful power role is located) and one artificially protected one.

No, it isn't. Nothing changes. It's the exact same as the original plan, with one simple change.

There will be one less person in the vig pool because there's one less scum in the non-PR pool, and instead of going after one of the two volunteers who are most likely town, we go after a third volunteer, who is also most likely town.

Where is the flaw?

Again, the only valid objection to my plan is if you believe one of Hoopla and Andrew are scum. Which is near impossible considering they were both going to be lynched D1 and D2 consecutively before I suggested my plan. Which utterly gimps the scum team because we also know there's one scum in the PR pool.

It is changed from what Hoopla described as a suboptimal plan for scum to use into an optimal plan, because with zMuffin’s design change it:

1. Identifies three out of four power roles.
2. Creates a pool where a bad guy or two could safely hide from both lynch and vig through day one.
3. Shields another bad guy through at least the first day by virtue of a power claim.

1. This was Hoopla's plan, not my modification. Although I had a similar idea.
2. I'm really, really amazing, but even if I were scum, how would I communicate this plan to my teammates? Or how would scum know to hide in the lynch pool prior to me explaining what my plan was?
3. ????????????????????????????????????

With zMuffinMan's plan, wouldn't we be going behind Hoopla's back about the plan and essentially stopping the whole thing that we have wasted so much time preparing for?

No.

[zMuffinMan]

PS:

Vig Pool:
Chk (Swank)
Darkie

Neil
Amrun

Quilford

Coventry (Pac (Jake))

The only good vig shots are bolded.

And I would like so very much for one of them to come forth and volunteer to be lynched today.