Mafia Invictus ~ Game Over!

[Benmage]

Yes gamma could be 3rd party but I still read that slot town.

AND THERE IS ZERO SCUM LOGIC TO RISK LOSING ONE OF THEIR OWN!!!! Gamma isnt scum period.

[Gut]

In Whoniverse mafia, we NK'd you, and you were scum. You hadn't had a vote all game. So you're quite likely to remain undetected scum. We can't keep you to end game. You need to die much sooner.

Remember that argument, DGb? I can't pull off that kind of scum game without my meta shield. I stand out too much.

[Benmage]

Fate, what's you're potential scum team right now?

[Benmage]

I'm trying todo some mental PoE here....

Town :
Me
gamma
fate
Ban
dgb
Vitamin

Leftover
Illuminati
tar
Nautilus
duplicity
Gut
MoI

[Benmage]

Zach leftover too

[Benmage]

Taking gut, tar, and Nautilus off the list....

Forces the scumteam if 4 tobe
MoI
Zach
illuminate
duplicity

I don't think its that simple.

I can't write those other 3 off.

Something is amiss.

Has gut claimed?

[Gammagooey]

But DGB my dear the tea will get cold if it's left out all night and my vote has a secret invitation on the back asking Zach to do just as you ask.

[Vi]

Vote Count XI:

Lightning Round of Death
Gut (L-1) ~ Zachrulez, The Illuminati, Benmage, MagnaofIllusion, DrippingGoofball, Duplicity
MagnaofIllusion (L-2) ~ Fate, VitaminR, Tarhalindur, Nautilius, Gut
VitaminR (L-6) ~ Ban
Zachrulez (L-6) ~ Gammagooey

(Minimum L-7)

-Gut is at L-1!

--Deadline is Tuesday, July 19 at 2100 EST. ((expired on 2011-07-19 21:00:00))

[Fate]

Town lists in this game are BAD, don't make them. Scum already have free reign to kill people, which is the ONE semi-drawback to invictus count, lets not make it even MORE obvious who they should be killing.

My potential scumteam, thus, looks like this:

MoI
[Insert people who aren't obvtown here]
Illumuniati
MoI

Did I mention MoI needs to fuckin DIE yet?

Ben, someone, unvote Gut I don't LIKE him being at L-1 like taht for fuck's sake. His claim IS NOT NECESSARY

[Tarhalindur]

This will take more than a phone to answer.

Tar, gamma is town because KK said in thread he was invictus-ing Gamma..... KK flipped town. Scum had no way to tell KK was lying therefore they went with the safest logical way to elude invictus and shot KK.... its so simple I am dumbfounded by you're logic.

Yeah, no. It's not as simple as you're trying to portray it, Mr. Going-to-Hang-For-This-Post. As far as I'm concerned, this is effectively circular logic, and boils down to "Quilford is town because scum shot KK to bonus-kill Quilford who is town". This is admittedly a possible explanation for the KK kill. It is NOT, however, the only possible explanation.

Let's take a look at the counterfactual to your claim. Assume Quilford is scum. Why might scum have killed KK despite his claim that he was invictusing a scum? Two immediate possible answers come to mind. First, from what I've seen KK is a strong player and good analyst, the sort of player that scum LOVE to kill (note that if a weak player had been killed N1 instead of Kublai I would be much more willing to accept the "scum trying for bonus kill" theory). Second, KK was openly suspicious of Quilford, who by the assumptions of this counterfactual is scum - silencing players who are suspicious of your faction via NK is an old and effective target (Xyl's Most Cunning Manipulation in MS3 is a shining example). A kill for these reason looks very, very plausible, so the implication that KK *must* have been killed to double-kill Quilford does not hold water.

The only restriction to this counterfactual is that scum must have been willing to risk an Invictus shot on one of their own members. Such risk makes sense only in one of three scenarios:
1) Quilford/Gamma slot has one or more bulletproof shields, allowing the scum to take out a player who might lynch one of their own without a significant risk of killing him.
2) Scum have a doctor who protected Quilford/Gamma N1.
3) A Tarhalindur over Mafia ability affected KK's Invictus.

Note that even if we assume that Hinduragi bodyguarded Quilford (which is likely, since the only other alternative is a Tarhalindur invictus redirector) both scenario 1 and scenario 2 are plausible, since Bodyguard resolves before other protective abilities (so Hinduragi's ability would have taken precedence). In fact, I'd guess that one of these scenarios is LIKELY - I'd be surprised if scum don't have some form of kill-stopping ability.

Given this, the final question is, is there any benefit to scum for killing a player who had declared an Invictus on scum over a player with a random Invictus target? I'd say yes - by targeting a player whose Invictus target is known and whom the scum could guarantee was protected from a kill, the scum could prevent an unprotected member of their faction randomly dying to an unknown Invictus.

So, from what I can see there's a pretty clear possible scum motivation for killing Kublai Khan despite his Invictus being on Quilford/Gamma. That means that the "Quilford must be town because KK kill" argument is unpersuasive and I will continue to judge Gamma by his slot's play - which is godawful. If it wasn't for me not wanting to see the MoI wagon derail for the second straight day, I'd be voting him right now. Or you. I'm really not picky at this point, so long as nobody outside the four scumbags I've caught is lynched.

---

On a related note, what do all the people that keep ragging on me for my "WTF" reaction to the SpyreX hammer have to say about this?

Dance's joke makes me think he thought this wasn't going through so we'll give a tiinny bit of town there.

I really didn't,

the fuck

? Threw a vote on to see what would happen,

didn't think you guys would fucking lynch what the fuck

FoS: I don't even know

- PBuG

HOLY SHIT GUYS

WHAT THE FUCK

SILAVOR 4 OPPORTUNISTIC SCUM

---

Take a good look at that Gut wagon, people. Take a good look.

That wagon is godawful. It is a scum counterwagon, just like silavor yesterday except for the poorer justification. If you take a good look, you will note that there are THREE scumbags on it.

Why is Gut still at L-1?

[Duplicity]

Hey guys, I'm really really sorry to be posting this late about this. I'm currently on vacation in California, meant to post earlier but the past week has been more hectic than I originally anticipated (This is the only game I'm in so I thought I could cope easily). Unfortunately, the activity level of 7 people in a small apartment is much, much higher than I thought it would be. All I've read since my last post is the flips, all I have to say is disappointed in Sil's flip. Now that I have semiregular internet access I'll be trying to catch up in the coming days and will hopefully be posting normally again soon. Again, I'm sorry to have waited this late but the one time I got access it was in the night phase. Was going to post earlier today but my phone decided to derp and delete two paragraphs not once not twice but three times so I ragequit. Anyway, until then I'm going to have to point you to Regfan if you have any questions.

-Shift

[Gammagooey]

: / Tar you're making me a bit sad here. Would you at least be willing to seriously reconsider your Benmage read if I die and you see my town flip later in the game? Because yeah there's a decent chance you're right about MoI being scum, but I really don't think Ben is and I don't want to see you go on a tunneling rampage for the rest of the game if your read on MoI is right and wind up forcing through mislynches because you were right earlier in the game.

And yes I'm well aware that you're not going to trust anything I say until I'm dead. But me becoming dead a bit later is definitely a possibility and I'd really like you to not be that one guy who won't listen to what anyone else has to say until everyone is bitching at each other in postgame.

[Tarhalindur]

I’m going to address the wagon on because it’s an exact replay of yesterday and quite frankly disappoints me greatly.

LOLWIFOM? That’s it? No-one has given one hint of actually scummy play (unlike say, Silavor Gut or the others I’ve actually detailed as scum with actual reasons why) and are just bandwagonning for a variety of reasons (Fate is Butthurt that I won “Best Newbie”, several others are clear scum, etc).

Usually, I'd note that for me trying to quantify a gut read based on specifics is horribly counterproductive (tends to trigger the kinds of doubts that lead me to ignore caught scum).

But I don't need to, because the first hint of your scummy play is this very quote. See all that dismissiveness of the votes on you, the attempts to discredit players attacking you? That's scum behavior.

You know, after reading a bunch of games where MoI was town I was starting to wonder what his scum game looked like.

You didn’t vote in this post but this is the most important element of your ‘meta-vote’. Please detail the MoI Town games you have read. Pretty bad use of meta. I’d expect experienced Tar to know better.

1) "know better" = pet peeve of mine. Unfortunately, it's only a null tell

2) The two main games that lead me to conclude that you are scum are both currently ongoing (though one probably won't be for much longer - PARTAY TIME anyone?), though you have flipped in both. Other games that I have considered so far:
Mafia MetaMafia
American Gods Mafia
Metropolis: Revisited (multiscum)
Choose Your Side: A Monument of Sins (closest town game to your play here)
Mini Normal 1086

After metamaf and [redacted] I very much expected to see more mellow town play, but instead you're stating that you've got 3 scum and that everyone else should go ahead and listen to you.
Naut's thing is similar- Yeah it wasn't a GOOD reason but unless I'm mistaken it was for an RVS wagon at the time and I have a really hard time seeing Naut use it as an excuse for being on a d1 quicklynch instead of just passing off the spy-scum claim as rvs shenanigans. Going you're absolutely scum while insulting their reason for the vote isn't what I expected from MoI-town.

And why isn't it worth your time. This is a serious question.

1. I don't see why your opinion of how I should play based on MetaMafia and [REDACTED] means I should change. Frankly I am and always have been an aggressive player. Based on those two games in question I don't see you calling for others who are playing here to change their style also.
2. Rhetoric in calling someone 'absolutely' scum isn't any different than rhetoric like "Why aren't you bussing your buddies". I don't see you calling anyone else to the carpet for that either. Granted I'm the top wagon but consistency in approach to what is scummy is Pro-Town.
3. Its not worth my time because I am not really going to share my reasoning for them. When it is an obv-case like Fate it is one thing. More nuanced reads - nope. That's how I roll.

Technically not directed at me, but worth commenting on nonetheless.

See, the key thing that tips me off about you is that in games where you've been town lately you've been aggressive in that levelheaded, evidence-gathering manner that I tend to associate with Glork. You're not levelheaded here. You're not questioning here (a HUGE point, that). What's more, what I'm seeing here IS consistent with your scum games.

I know this kind of reaction.

This is the kind of defense you see from scum who've been cornered by a case they think is utter crap. It's just like when The Fonz got lynched back in Stargate SG-1 as SK due to perceived connections to revealed scum.

In fact, it's more than that. MoI just let it be known that he feels ENTITLED to not be the lynch today because silavor is the DESIGNATED lynch today. Look at the last part of that first sentence. It's not "because he's scummier than I am", it's "because that's what you're supposed to do". Then MoI brings up SpyreX from yesterday to try to frighten players out of his lynch. Not convince.

Frighten.

I repeat: This is NOT town defense. And the posts I don't have time to cover right now aren't any better.

MoI: Claim or die.

Lulz. It's not a Town defense? Showing clearly how the entire argument is meta done in a completely half-assed and non-scum-hunting manner isn't Town.

Yes, we will have to disagree completely.

You complete attempt to Straw-man away the fact Silv has committed multple 'scummy plays' while no-one can bring up anything other than 'LOL Meta' and 'This isn't how Town reacts' is pretty telling.

Everyone on my wagon can't be scum. But I have a hard time believe you are this foolish as Town Tar.

I'm not claiming. I don't think I'm even at L-1.

Oh and I eagerly await your response when you actually have time.

Here's the thing. I fail to see how "posting differently than how you post as town" isn't a giant-ass sign that you aren't town - that's basically the definition of a scumtell.

From what I can tell, you are not posting the same way that you post in games where you are town. That's the meta tell. That's why you're scum.

Want a specific example of how you're posting differently this game? In the town games of yours I was reading, you tended towards being highly logical. Here, I'm seeing logical fallacies (particularly ad hominem) all over the place. Like in that "hard time believing you are this foolish as Town" up above - not because it implies that you think I am scum, but because it implies that even if I am town then I am just being foolish.

Also, why on Earth should I prioritize "scummy plays" (which have led me astray in the past) over a player whose posts as a whole suggest a nontown mindset? That's not a way to hunt scum, that's a way to get bogged down chasing after scummy townies.

More to come.

[Tarhalindur]

: / Tar you're making me a bit sad here. Would you at least be willing to seriously reconsider your Benmage read if I die and you see my town flip later in the game? Because yeah there's a decent chance you're right about MoI being scum, but I really don't think Ben is and I don't want to see you go on a tunneling rampage for the rest of the game if your read on MoI is right and wind up forcing through mislynches because you were right earlier in the game.

And yes I'm well aware that you're not going to trust anything I say until I'm dead. But me becoming dead a bit later is definitely a possibility and I'd really like you to not be that one guy who won't listen to what anyone else has to say until everyone is bitching at each other in postgame.

Of course - Benmage is less likely to be scum if you are town. I won't just throw him into the town pile if you are town, though, because the other big problem with Benmage (being active but off to the side the entire game) is still valid - and far be it from me to rule out scum white knighting town.

Mind you, this shouldn't matter, because I just painted a big, fat target sign of "will die tonight" on my forehead so I really shouldn't be alive long enough to worry about it.

[Gammagooey]

More words than I feel like quoting

<3.

Time to wait for Zaaaaach.

[Benmage]

unvote

still busy

[Fate]

I'm so glad Tars good with words.

Course BEN would be the one who unvotes off l1, like he needed any MORE town points...

[Duplicity]

Tarh, Gamma did state that he was considering replacing out multiple times (It wasn't just MoI). Bens reply to what votes he finds suspicious and which he doesn't impacts my town read on him minimally, it's more so information I want him to elaborate on than conditions to my town read on him and am still waiting on.

Your point about there being a potential scum doctor, bulletproof or alternate power preventing an Invicitus occuring makes no sense when it comes to your read on Quilford. A failed invictus vote and no invictus death would leads towards it being abundantly obvious that something prevented the invicidus kill going through which again throws attention and suspicion onto Quilford. There legitimately is no scum motivation for Quilford to shoot at KK at all as it would lead to a likely 1 for 1 trade which is something mafia would avoid at all costs.

Gut, the only motivation I can find behind revealing you're a hydra knowing that it would be conisdered scummy to late claim it is so you can attempt to use it as an excuse to cover your previous scummy behaviour. With that said I'm getting serious second thoughts in regards to my suspicion directed towards you after reading glancing at a few of your other games.

CES, you claim to be the solo posting head of the hydra, does this mean that all of chambers thoughts and opinions are discussed elsewhere, if so I want him to come in here and make the next post elaborating on his reads. I want to have a conversation with Shift asap, his internet difficulties is proving to be incredibly frustrating.

For now I'll

Unvote

though this vote is likely to come back at some point but I want a chance to read through Naut, The Illu and Zach in more detail before that occurs. I still believe MoI's town and Tarhs outright claim of "Lynch me or follow me" reads as a town-tell, I don't see him putting such a suggestion or claim out there as scum after two town lynches occured.

[Fate]

Lol Duplicit scum too late for unvote town points

[VitaminR]

Vitamin I was just starting to like you too but that's way too many of those "I don't think we should lynch Gut" posts. I attack you for not doing more and you go way overboard with these whispers of 'it's a bad lynch'... I just... you... confound me. Damnit tar beat me to it. Oh well, he says it better then I could have anyway.

I confound you because I'm hard to read. I never really bleed pro-townness. Frankly, I care more about a potential Gut mislynch than a silavor one. CES is my little brother. I'm one of the players here who knows him well and that his playstyle is generally scummy, so I feel like I need to speak up. And I always feel kinda bad when he's mislynched.

Btw, you asked why I didn't refer to meta when I voted Magna. I don't really remember why, but I remember I had a reason for it? That's kinda a bad answer, but it's true. I was a little nervous about placing that vote generally. I was worried it would look scummy to hop on another wagon after SpyreX (I generally am not a bandwagonny player), but it was where my gut was telling me to go. It may have been because I was afraid to get into a detailed argument with Magna about his meta. My vote was really based on a gut impression rather than anything that's really easy to pinpoint and I think I was worried about getting drawn into a lengthy discussion about it.

[Benmage]

Oh fuck me... Hindu bodgy guarded quil... its so simple... I keep neglecting bodyguard stops invictus kills.

Fyi a scum doc wouldn't.

And a bpv... would show no kill despite KK flipping with invictus ... and everyone would go, oh KK invictusd quil....lynch quil.


WELL THEN. Time to reexamine gamma when I get the chance.

[Benmage]

Duplicity I don't know what you asking from me on the votes I analyzed on MoI ... I was looking for a case and came up wit that. I wanted to analysis the timing of the votes for momentum purposes... I haven't gotten to that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And a bpv... would show no kill despite KK flipping with invictus ... and everyone would go, oh KK invictusd quil....lynch quil.

WELL THEN. Time to reexamine gamma when I get the chance.

Didn't it strike you as odd that Gamma, who basically called me a good lynch and scummy Day 2 didn't come out firing with a Vote on me Day 3 after Silavor flipped scum?

[Zachrulez]

More words than I feel like quoting

<3.

Time to wait for Zaaaaach.

I'm not going to be back in Minnesota until Sunday, so you'll be waiting until at least then and for me to catch up on my reading as well.

[Gut]

CES, you claim to be the solo posting head of the hydra, does this mean that all of chambers thoughts and opinions are discussed elsewhere, if so I want him to come in here and make the next post elaborating on his reads. I want to have a conversation with Shift asap, his internet difficulties is proving to be incredibly frustrating.

When blarg and I decided to hydra, part of the plan was to really put up a united front. We have a clear division of labour and we really want this to feel like you guys aren't with chamber and I, but with Gut, so I'm going to say no to this request.

Oh fuck me... Hindu bodgy guarded quil... its so simple... I keep neglecting bodyguard stops invictus kills.

Why would Hindurage bodyguard quilford? Even no-actioning would've been a better move.