NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[Magister Ludi]

{Kayne, Yos2, KoC/Ludi} contains 1 scum. (80% sure of that, now. 19% being 2 scum. A gratuitous 1% for all-town, which quite frankly I find pretty much impossible.)

No, all these people are probably town. I asked kayne a question about your alignment not even checking the vote-count, he answered that you were probably town, despite the fact you were voting him. Thats a town mindset.

Yosarian is town as well, as am I.

Seriously, I don't understand the pro-town intent behind making so many conditional If X than Y or one of A B or C is Scum so that means this to E D etc. Either someone is scum, or not. Chair is probably not. If you're going to vote one of them, vote saporo. (But you're not voting her. You should be )

~~~

SpyreX, whats your read on mastin2?

[Magister Ludi]

Idher, unless town knew for a fact there was a vigilante on day two, there was no point in holding off lynching someone who was almost certainly scum in the hope that there was a vigilante to shoot him in an effort to dodge a potential booky (who nobody knew for sure existed)

[Îdher]

It was completely obvious that Reckoner would have added a bookie to the setup and nobody disputed it.

Correction: there was no point in

not

holding off lynching him. There was certainly a point in holding it off. You just said the point.

-Ether

[SpyreX]

So if we knew there was a bookie AND we knew there was a vig AND we knew the vig wasn't Empking....

Sure.

I feel terrible now.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Theres no point in arguing about this now. Lets move on and lynch Chair please.

[SpyreX]

mastin is Ythan is town++. Sorry I missed that yo

[Îdher]

Obviously there's a point. We're arguing about where the scum are in that end of day votecount.

Obviously the scum didn't know whether there was a vig or not--but why on Earth would they want to take the risk, and waste a shot or two in the process?

Correction: there was no point in not holding off lynching him. There was certainly a point in holding it off. You just said the point.

-Ether

[kanyeknowsbest]

Idher, why are you opposed to a chair lynch.

[SpyreX]

I still don't get it because every bit of this is predicated on "we would have totally lynched other scum guys" or otherwise the absolute best case scenario with absolute hindsight... is the same as what we got.

[Îdher]

It's not predicated on that at all. The faster we kill off people of unconfirmed alignment (ie, not Empking), the faster we get an idea of who they would and wouldn't be scum with. (Which is the normal reason that even scum who almost certainly won't survive to endgame try to stall their deaths as long as possible--to deny the town information and connections.) Aside from the end of day votecount that everyone is interpreting the wrong way, the Emplynch got us...confirmation of an alignment we already knew. Yay?

The Chairwagon sucks because:
a.) He was not on the Empwagon and the scum are on the Empwagon
b.) I seriously don't even get what the case on him is supposed to be

The fact that SpyreX is voting him doesn't add to its credibility. Why are you opposed to a Sapo lynch?

-Ether

[MrZepher]

I'm alive.
Will post content shortly?

[MrZepher]

First things first, I realized during work today that my read on Yos was entirely confirmation bias based on Para's completely anti-town behavior.
I'm reconsidering his read. For now he sits null, and quite frankly makes some things look a lot better.

Ludi apparently doesn't have any reason to think I'm scum so Kanye's willingness to sheep sans the vote seems scummy.
Will be looking into this.

Mastin seems to be playing like town Mastin..... Still debating as to whether or not this is a good thing, but I appreciate that he's able to read me better than anybody else here.

[Chair]

I could see saporovirus as scum. Something about zepher's posting makes me think he's town. I'll try to explain that more in-depth if asked.

Anyone who was neither on that wagon nor strongly protesting it is scummy, yes. Scum wanted the wagon to go through, but it is not a wagon I would like to be on if I were scum.

assuming that this is directed at me - the issue is that I have a town motivation for this as well. I had reason to believe that empking could have been town, which i've explained - however, I didn't have an explicit town read on him. I thought it would be fine to lynch someone else and give him a second chance, but I didn't have any reason not to lynch him either seeing as he was, of course, likely to be scum.

i did justify why i felt it was fake though. anyways, spyrex elegantly summed it up better than i did. vote town, fos buddy.

"vote town, fos buddy" is well and good, but only if the voter/foser in question has flipped. You can't use it to determine that person's alignment. Why? Well, simple. Town members don't know other peoples' alignments. So it's completely possible - in fact, it's bound to happen to some town members at some points in the game - that they will vote someone who is town and fos someone who is scum. If there's a deceased scum who happened to vote one person and fos another, it's a perfectly reasonable tell to use - but it can't be used to discern MY alignment.

Here is a question Chair: you have been mentioning spyrex and me as scum together a lot. if i were lynched today and flipped town, would that affect your read on him? vice versa?

Slightly. I have both of you as scum reads independently of each other. However, you do make sense as a team as well. So if one of you flipped town, that part would obviously disappear, but i would still have an independent scumread on the other.

I could swing for a Chair lynch mainly for the whole "shutdown the townbloc" deal way back when, but sapo is obvious at this point with empking flipped.

Actually, I did very little in the way of attacking the block itself relatively to attacking SpyreX. If spyrex had explained why each of the people in the block were town with reasonable explanations, I wouldn't have found it scummy of spyrex.

Looking at the way Empking did this makes me lean to him placing all scum in the null category, and possibly one in the regular town category. Sapo and Chair both fit here. Yos is likely town too from this.

I would disagree with you there - i see no reason that emp wouldn't have put a scumbuddy in the scum category. Yos is still town though, and I lean town on kunk right now. People are convincing me that sapo is the last scumbuddy from empking interactions.

I'm going to have to keep disagreeing with you on this Idher, I am convinced that the majority of scum were in the group of people who were neither on the wagon nor tried to stop it. Also, I am really not seeing anything that makes saporo a better lynch than chair or zepher.

Why do you continue to assert this even after it's been explained that the scum

had

to have the wagon go through that day?

Swag was obv-town. Simple as that. Zepher's play seemed to be town as well. I didn't see scum Motivation in his moves. I didn't see scum Tone in his posts. I didn't see any condemning interactions from him. And speaking in more traditional scumhunting terms, I don't see any real evidence against him. The same applies to his predecessor, only moreso. The guy's obv-town.

This sums it up well, actually... zepher's actions just don't feel like they come from scum. There just doesn't seem to be much scum motivation.

Scum can not win a phyrric game with even a bookie.

This is just bad... Think of it from emp's point of view (in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if the mafia planned this in pre-game): He's going to be lynched. He's scummy. How does he save himself? Why, claim a confirmable power role! there's a bookie, so it not only delays his lynch a day, it gives the scum a free extra kill! Scum aren't going to lynch bus every single scum with a bookie - first of all, we don't even know how many shots the bookie has... second of all there's no reason that the scum couldn't try to push a lynch on a bookied townie instead of a bookied scum.

And that is assuming super awesome bookie. The ONLY way Empking wasn't the right lynch is...

1-shot bookie. That is it.

Which is better for the town: consuming one bookie-shot or consuming two bookie-shots in the case of a 2+-shot bookie?

I may be convinced to wagon sapo.

Also,

Îdher

, why exactly is kanye town?

[Chair]

Theres no point in arguing about this now. Lets move on and lynch Chair please.

I honestly shouldn't even need to explain why this is scummy.

i will anyway. We have a week until deadline, or something like that. There are several active wagons (you, us, sapo, zepher are all possible lynches for today). Why would we stop arguing and discussing when we still have so much time left in the day and there are so many possibilities?

[Chair]

-implosion on both of those by the way.

[mastin2]

Call me paranoid, but both of my other scumreads going against Sapo is making me doubt that scumread.

Meh, we'll get around to it after both of my scumreads are dead and figure out the WIFOM then.

[Îdher]

Off the top of my head, the fact that 835 happened at all, even if he moved over later. He was the first person to acknowledge my post about the bookie at all, and could have hoped for it to blow over, though that's kind of a side thing over the simple fact that he hesitated. I think Amrun's got more to say about him than that, but in general he doesn't really feel like scum to me.

I find it kind of hard to read your posting style, by the way. That is way too many quotes.

-Ether

[kanyeknowsbest]

Ludi apparently doesn't have any reason to think I'm scum so Kanye's willingness to sheep sans the vote seems scummy. Will be looking into this.

im not sheeping ludi. i have viewed your slot as scummy the entire game, and were i to join your wagon i would obviously explain the full extent of my scumread on you. regardless, as i said before, i find the chair wagon vastly superior.

The Chairwagon sucks because:
a.) He was not on the Empwagon and the scum are on the Empwagon
b.) I seriously don't even get what the case on him is supposed to be

The fact that SpyreX is voting him doesn't add to its credibility. Why are you opposed to a Sapo lynch?

-Ether

chairwagon summed up: interaction with empking/ut wagons day1, interaction with the empking wagon day2, attack on a townblock consisting of people he agreed were town, reaction to spyrex's prodding day1.

i am not opposed to a saporo lynch per se. i have him at null right now, and honestly have not reconsidered my read on him today. i suppose i will do that shortly. regardless, i am way more into a chair lynch than anything else.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Theres no point in arguing about this now. Lets move on and lynch Chair please.

I honestly shouldn't even need to explain why this is scummy.

i will anyway. We have a week until deadline, or something like that. There are several active wagons (you, us, sapo, zepher are all possible lynches for today). Why would we stop arguing and discussing when we still have so much time left in the day and there are so many possibilities?

i was attempting to steer conversation between my two top town reads away from discussion about our vig. and i am obviously not insisting that we reach a lynch immediately.

assuming that this is directed at me - the issue is that I have a town motivation for this as well. I had reason to believe that empking could have been town, which i've explained - however, I didn't have an explicit town read on him. I thought it would be fine to lynch someone else and give him a second chance, but I didn't have any reason not to lynch him either seeing as he was, of course, likely to be scum.

this still doesnt fly. empking was basically mod confirmed not vig.

"vote town, fos buddy" is well and good, but only if the voter/foser in question has flipped. You can't use it to determine that person's alignment. Why? Well, simple. Town members don't know other peoples' alignments. So it's completely possible - in fact, it's bound to happen to some town members at some points in the game - that they will vote someone who is town and fos someone who is scum. If there's a deceased scum who happened to vote one person and fos another, it's a perfectly reasonable tell to use - but it can't be used to discern MY alignment.

yes it can.

Actually, I did very little in the way of attacking the block itself relatively to attacking SpyreX. If spyrex had explained why each of the people in the block were town with reasonable explanations, I wouldn't have found it scummy of spyrex.

Ythan, I understand why he's on there. Spyrex, it makes sense to put oneself on there. Hiraki, I also understand. But knight, t-bone and kanye? I can understand townreads on these people - but it seems like spyrex has ridiculously strong townreads on them for this point in the game. Especially t-bone and kanye. I also just kind of don't like the proposition of a 6-person voting block when: A, there are plenty of people that still have barely posted; B, it's only a 17-person game and 6 people is 2/3 of a lynch wagon; and C, there's no town reason to have such damn strong town reads on these people.

Just a reminder, heres your original attack on the town block. oh.... thats weird. it looks like youre attacking the block to me??

I'm going to have to keep disagreeing with you on this Idher, I am convinced that the majority of scum were in the group of people who were neither on the wagon nor tried to stop it. Also, I am really not seeing anything that makes saporo a better lynch than chair or zepher.

Why do you continue to assert this even after it's been explained that the scum

had

to have the wagon go through that day?

Because town was more than happy to oblige them and push it through.

[Yosarian2]

We already knew Empking was scum at that point. We didn't need confirmation of his alignment to update our reads on other players.

I don't think it's quite that clear cut. Hiraki was still arguing pretty strenuously that Empking was town, so clearly not everyone was sure Empking was scum.

[kunkstar7]

@Mastin: while that is a general theory, I'm disregarding that and doing the analysis based on my reads and the flips in the game specifically. I'm sure Empking was aware that his reads would be analyzed on his flip as well and of the general theory. Empking's really town category is all townreads, and all his scum have either flipped or is myself. (yos is an exception, but once again another townread). So final verdict is what I stated earlier.

[xRECKONERx]

Chair (3): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2
kanyeknowsbest (2): Chair, saporovirus
MrZepher (2): Yosarian2, Magister Ludi
saporovirus (2): kunkstar7, Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to lynch.
mastin2 is V/LA until Monday July 11th.
Deadline is in (expired on 2011-07-19 23:00:00).

[kunkstar7]

UT is flipped town. Sapo is asking for an alternative lynch on Empking know that a)it wasn't going to happen, which leads to b)free "towncred" for arguing against a townflip when UT flips without necessarily needing to push an alternative wagon, which is win all around for scum considering UT still got lynched.

You do remember that SpyreX and I were also trying to deflect that wagon off of UT, right?

The key here is that Sapo was deflecting back to Empking, a claimed vig, rather than away to some other wagon. Since we know Empking is scum, and UT was town, the scum motivation for what Sapo did is pretty clear.

[SpyreX]

I'm not 'opposed' to a sapo wagon, nor have I ever been. However watching Chair grease up for that wagon is a teaparty in space.

That doesn't change how ridiculous this is:

It's not predicated on that at all. The faster we kill off people of unconfirmed alignment (ie, not Empking), the faster we get an idea of who they would and wouldn't be scum with. (Which is the normal reason that even scum who almost certainly won't survive to endgame try to stall their deaths as long as possible--to deny the town information and connections.) Aside from the end of day votecount that everyone is interpreting the wrong way, the Emplynch got us...confirmation of an alignment we already knew. Yay?

The Chairwagon sucks because:
a.) He was not on the Empwagon and the scum are on the Empwagon
b.) I seriously don't even get what the case on him is supposed to be

The fact that SpyreX is voting him doesn't add to its credibility. Why are you opposed to a Sapo lynch?

-Ether

Chair claims scum right now. Do you lynch him?

Its that simple. You lynch scum.

There's no world in which a no to that question is the right answer. (blah blah multiball, etc).

Of course that's not near as ridiculous as:

This is just bad... Think of it from emp's point of view (in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if the mafia planned this in pre-game): He's going to be lynched. He's scummy. How does he save himself? Why, claim a confirmable power role! there's a bookie, so it not only delays his lynch a day, it gives the scum a free extra kill! Scum aren't going to lynch bus every single scum with a bookie - first of all, we don't even know how many shots the bookie has... second of all there's no reason that the scum couldn't try to push a lynch on a bookied townie instead of a bookied scum.

Which is better for the town: consuming one bookie-shot or consuming two bookie-shots in the case of a 2+-shot bookie?

I may be convinced to wagon sapo.

Also, Îdher, why exactly is kanye town?

Do you think for a second scum WANTED to bookie scum?

What would have changed if Empking was alive D3 in all scenarios BUT a dead bookie?

And your last question is so bad I don't even know lets try again:

Which is better for the town: killing a confirmed scum or lynching someone else?

[Chair]

chairwagon summed up: interaction with empking/ut wagons day1, interaction with the empking wagon day2, attack on a townblock consisting of people he agreed were town, reaction to spyrex's prodding day1.

My defense summed up: I explained how my day one interactions have a town motivation, your assigning of a scumtell to how I acted day two is controversial and I gave why I acted how I did either way, I didn't agree that the people on the block were town. I agreed with some of them, and others I had as null or scummy. But I wasn't attacking the concept of a town block - I was attacking

SpyreX

for not

justifying

the people that he included in the town block. I'm not sure what you mean by my reaction to spyrex's "prodding" on day one, or how that reponse was scummy.

this still doesnt fly. empking was basically mod confirmed not vig.

I explained both my reason for thinking he might have been town and my reason for disagreeing with you on this reason, namely that it was a form of outguessing the mod.

As for the rest of your post... "yes it can" is a meaningless response, and if you read the quoted post I was in fact attacking SpyreX. In order to explain why his proposition was scummy, I had to explain why his proposition didn't make sense, e.g. points A B and C. Notice how I conclude with the most important point: "there's no

town

reason to have such strong town reads." That is, I don't see what SpyreX said as having come from town. I'd also indicated suspicion of SpyreX prior to the quoted paragraph, so even if I hadn't explicitly stated this it could be implied that I was attacking SpyreX himself.

As for this gem...

Because town was more than happy to oblige them and push it through.

The reasoning that I was talking about wasn't talking about the location of town members in the wagon / off the wagon, it was talking about the location of

scum

. Lets say that there are scum on the emplynchwagon. Now, lets say that none of them had ever joined it. It's completely possible that it would never have gone through without any scum pushing. Now, let me assert this point: the scum almost DEFINITELY wanted empking to be lynched on day two, for the simple reason that he was dead meat to them at that point and they may as well have tried to get in a free double kill, especially at that point when it allowed them to totally eliminate the masonry. They couldn't risk what would happen if they didn't join the wagon. So scum would push the wagon.

Your implicit reasoning for "off the wagon but not against the wagon" would be something like those people not wanting to be caught up but also not wanting to stop it... this is easily refuted: if the majority of scum were off the wagon, they'd be risking the wagon not going through, a very bad situation for them. They lose a bookie shot and have to decide whether or not to use another one, and empking is still doomed.