Fall of the Matrix: Game Over!

[Zindaras]

I just don't understand the whole counterclaim logic from Brian. I mean, it's not

that

clear-cut. If it's 4-4 or 4-4-1, then there would be a Merovingian to counterclaim me.

Also, Zindie likes hir gender confusion. >.>

<.<

[BrianMcQueso]

If it's 4-4-x, Zindaras is the last Merovingian and nobody will counterclaim.

If it's 3-3-x, Zindaras is a member of a 3-person team and claims, knowing that all 3 members of the other team are dead and nobody will counterclaim.

Nobody will counterclaim in both situations, so it doesn't prove if Zindaras is telling the truth or not.

[/genderneutral]

[Albert B. Rampage]

BMQ they think he is matrix scum pulling off a gambit.

[Zindaras]

Oh, by the way: I'm going on vacation as of tomorrow, until July 28th. As far as I know, I will have Internet access in all but the last four days. It might be a tad more sporadic (it will likely be impossible to reread the game or anything spectacular like that) than it was so far, but I want to finish this game.

[Zindaras]

Also, Albert, I think BMQ is suggesting there are three-player scumgroups and I'm faking it. In that case, there wouldn't be a counterclaim because all the Merovingians would be dead.

I still don't see how you can see it as likely because I don't think that it's a very balanced setup (especially because the deaths so far suggest very strongly that scum did not have power roles), but okay, fine.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I know that's what he says, I'm not under the impression that's what the others are saying.

[BrianMcQueso]

On a different note:

Given the fact that we were a four-man team, I highly doubt that there are only three Matrix Mafiates. Three Agents

and the Architect

makes sense anyway.

What makes you think The Architect is in this game, and part of the Agents team?

[Zindaras]

On a different note:

Given the fact that we were a four-man team, I highly doubt that there are only three Matrix Mafiates. Three Agents

and the Architect

makes sense anyway.

What makes you think The Architect is in this game, and part of the Agents team?

It would make sense. Four-man team with a GF (like we were), Architect seems like the quintessential Godfather for the Matrix. Besides the Agents, I think it's the only robot-controlled program that we even see in the movies.

[Zindaras]

On a different note:

Given the fact that we were a four-man team, I highly doubt that there are only three Matrix Mafiates. Three Agents

and the Architect

makes sense anyway.

What makes you think The Architect is in this game, and part of the Agents team?

It would make sense. Four-man team with a GF (like we were), Architect seems like the quintessential Godfather for the Matrix. Besides the Agents, I think it's the only robot-controlled program that we even see in the movies.

EBWOP: All other programs are either good (Oracle, Seraph (?), Keymaker, the little kid Neo meets at the train station at the start of the last movie) or just rogue (Merovingian, Twins, Trainman).

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm just trying to acknowledge both possibilities. Heck, I think I was even the first one to suggest it might be a gambit. It's what I believe, mostly out of hope. If there are still 1 Merovigian and 3 Agents, then the scum outnumber the town, and I'm not happy with that. If it's 3-3, we still have a chance, and I'd like to make the play that has the best chances of a town victory.

Like I said before, if it's a 4-4 setup, we're pretty screwed and can only win if we lynch and vigilante perfectly. It's not something I have a lot of faith in.

[BrianMcQueso]

It would make sense. Four-man team with a GF (like we were), Architect seems like the quintessential Godfather for the Matrix. Besides the Agents, I think it's the only robot-controlled program that we even see in the movies.

I understand how The Architect would make sense as Godfather, but your naming him came out of nowhere. I went back and searched all player's posts. The only other times "Architect" was mentioned was by me (listing a number of characters that might be in the setup) and by Mastermind of Sin (in a vote count quote).

My opinion of the "Agents" team was that it was made up of Agents. Speculating that there is an Architect... feels like a slip.

[SensFan]

Maybe it's just me, but something Zindy said makes me more likely to join the 'Hope he's lying and lynch him' camp. He said that part of his deal is a Happily Ever After if we get rid of all the Matrix; that doesn't work for Town. That makes the risk:reward of trusting you make no sense, since the

upside

is a draw.

[Zindaras]

I'm just trying to acknowledge both possibilities. Heck, I think I was even the first one to suggest it might be a gambit. It's what I believe, mostly out of hope. If there are still 1 Merovigian and 3 Agents, then the scum outnumber the town, and I'm not happy with that. If it's 3-3, we still have a chance, and I'd like to make the play that has the best chances of a town victory.

Like I said before, if it's a 4-4 setup, we're pretty screwed and can only win if we lynch and vigilante perfectly. It's not something I have a lot of faith in.

I would be inclined to disagree. Not only do you disregard probability (you may

hope

that the setup is not like that, but is it

realistic

?), you also disregard behaviour and balance.

Also, if it's 4-4, like I said, we get one mislynch. If we mislynch, Albert and I then have to kill perfectly. And if it's 3-3-1, town is pretty much screwed as well and has to hope there's a crosskill between Mafia and SK at some point. Like I said, I think the optimal strategy is to lynch today. If we lynch correctly, Albert and I nokill and we get the same situation tomorrow and we are in the same situation. Using that strategy, we can afford a singular mislynch and make it to an endgame Prisoner's Dilemma.

If it's 3-3-1, you're really not much better off.

It would make sense. Four-man team with a GF (like we were), Architect seems like the quintessential Godfather for the Matrix. Besides the Agents, I think it's the only robot-controlled program that we even see in the movies.

I understand how The Architect would make sense as Godfather, but your naming him came out of nowhere. I went back and searched all player's posts. The only other times "Architect" was mentioned was by me (listing a number of characters that might be in the setup) and by Mastermind of Sin (in a vote count quote).

My opinion of the "Agents" team was that it was made up of Agents. Speculating that there is an Architect... feels like a slip.

I'm sorry, but the team does not say Agents, it says Matrix. And, given that I can be fairly sure there are four Matrix aligned players, the Architect is the most logical choice. Also, since all Agents in the movies operate in trios, it would make sense to have three agents and a GF.

Maybe it's just me, but something Zindy said makes me more likely to join the 'Hope he's lying and lynch him' camp. He said that part of his deal is a Happily Ever After if we get rid of all the Matrix; that doesn't work for Town. That makes the risk:reward of trusting you make no sense, since the

upside

is a draw.

Beyond the fact that I've always considered Happily Ever After a win for both (because people overcame their respective differences and huggled and snuggled for all of eternity), I'd also suggest that it would up your chances. Regardless of the setup, Town is practically guaranteed to lose.

My offer was an offer, and nothing more. If you wish to take your chances, that's fine by me. I am more than willing to simply play this out.

[SensFan]

Maybe it's just me, but something Zindy said makes me more likely to join the 'Hope he's lying and lynch him' camp. He said that part of his deal is a Happily Ever After if we get rid of all the Matrix; that doesn't work for Town. That makes the risk:reward of trusting you make no sense, since the

upside

is a draw.

Beyond the fact that I've always considered Happily Ever After a win for both (because people overcame their respective differences and huggled and snuggled for all of eternity), I'd also suggest that it would up your chances. Regardless of the setup, Town is practically guaranteed to lose.

My offer was an offer, and nothing more. If you wish to take your chances, that's fine by me. I am more than willing to simply play this out.

I'm not sure how you get that "Town is practically guaranteed to lose" in a 3:3:1 endgame with a Vig.

[Zindaras]

Maybe it's just me, but something Zindy said makes me more likely to join the 'Hope he's lying and lynch him' camp. He said that part of his deal is a Happily Ever After if we get rid of all the Matrix; that doesn't work for Town. That makes the risk:reward of trusting you make no sense, since the

upside

is a draw.

Beyond the fact that I've always considered Happily Ever After a win for both (because people overcame their respective differences and huggled and snuggled for all of eternity), I'd also suggest that it would up your chances. Regardless of the setup, Town is practically guaranteed to lose.

My offer was an offer, and nothing more. If you wish to take your chances, that's fine by me. I am more than willing to simply play this out.

I'm not sure how you get that "Town is practically guaranteed to lose" in a 3:3:1 endgame with a Vig.

If there's an SK around, it's quite possible that it's Albert. If he's kill immune his earlier claim may not actually have been that bad for him. Anyway, simply taking your assumptions and running with them:

If it's a 3:3:1 situation, then there are currently two Mafiates and an SK. You still need to lynch correctly two days in a row and pray for crosskills and that Albert manages to hit scum. And crosskills aren't likely since Albert has a huge target on his forehead, so it's likely that the town will have to find all the scum on their own.

Let's assume Albert is a Vig and it's a 3:3:1 setup, despite the fact that that would make no sense whatsoever from a balance standpoint. Then, there are three options:
-Lynch Town (3-2-1): Albert or SK has to kill Mafia in order to have a chance. Unless Albert and SK both kill Mafia, Town will end up in a Prisoner's Dilemma (as Mafia kills Albert and hence, no danger of crosskill there)
-Lynch SK (4-2): Albert needs to vig correctly or Town loses.
-Lynch Mafia (4-1-1): clearly the best situation, but with three kills, the best town can hope for is a standard endgame (or a double crosskill), while the odds for a Prisoner's Dilemma are fairly high.

And I'm still befuddled as to the total lack of behavioural analysis. Fact is, I have much more of an incentive to do this as Merovingian than as Matrix. I was not on the block.

[SensFan]

And I'm still befuddled as to the total lack of behavioural analysis. Fact is, I have much more of an incentive to do this as Merovingian than as Matrix. I was not on the block.

But as Merovingian, you would know that you have a greater incentive to do this as Matrix, and so the wine is clearly in front of me.

[BrianMcQueso]

If Albert is the serial killer, then good on him for putting himself in the best position to win this game. There's no way we can lynch a claimed Neo.

Alright, Zindaras, say I believe your claim. Say we're even skilled or lucky enough as a town to lynch an Agent, and the setup becomes TTT M AA. The Agents kill you tonight, and you lose, unless you have your Commuter power up. I'm assuming you do, otherwise you just got yourself killed. If you don't, you get nightkilled the next night.

You can't win this game, Zindaras.

You know it, too, and are trying to negotiate a "happily ever after". The thing is, we have no reason to accept that deal, even if you keep your word. Town can win this game. We also can't trust you to help us find Agents, because of the

possibility

that you might be an Agent pulling a gambit. You offer us nothing.

I'm starting to think that we don't win by lynching you, though. Town's best option is to lynch an Agent and vig-kill Zindaras. If you can commute and dodge the kill, you're confirmed. If you're lying, we vig'd an Agent. If you don't have your commuter up this night, it's like we lynched you anyway.

If we lynch an Agent today,

it doesn't matter if Zindaras is telling the truth or not

, and the town still has a chance to win. It removes the guesswork as to what the setup is. I think that's where we should focus our efforts.

[SensFan]

I'm really uncomfortable with a plan that involves vigging Zindy tonight, because it sets up Town to get blown out even if he's telling the truth, as long as he Hides.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I am confirmed town. Look at the other PRs. Morpheus, Trinity. I'm vigilante that claimed Neo, thus confirmed town.

[BrianMcQueso]

because it sets up Town to get blown out even if he's telling the truth

Sorry, I can't visualize these things without writing them out ^_^;

Spoiler: Agent Lynched, Zindaras self-protects

Setup now: TTT M AAA (assuming Zindaras is telling the truth)

Lynch Agent: TTT M AA

Town attempts vig on M, fails.
Agents kill T, since M is being targeted anyway.

TT M AA, with Zindaras's kill left over.

Zindaras kills T (50% chance): T M AA, no lynch, Matrix wins no matter what.

Zindaras kills A (50% chance): TT M A, no lynch, A kills M (no protection), town only wins if M kills A (33% chance).

You're right. Man, we're just in an awful spot no matter what, eh?

[BrianMcQueso]

Actually, those numbers are a bit off because all the kills happen simultaneously, so M and A might cross-kill? But that's unlikely, and only results in us getting a lynch or lose scenario, I think.

[SensFan]

Actually, those numbers are a bit off because all the kills happen simultaneously, so M and A might cross-kill? But that's unlikely, and only results in us getting a lynch or lose scenario, I think.

Exactly.

At this point, I think we do have to cross our fingers and just hope that Zind is gambitting. Ironically, if Zind is telling the truth about being M, but added on the Commute in an effort to not be killed tonight, then it may have cost him his chance.

Vote: Zind

[BrianMcQueso]

I would really like to hear more from DeathNote and Porochaz. (I have a good feeling as to where Kison stands).

Albert: You're the only confirmed town we have. You need to be amazing right now. You want to lynch Porochaz? Why? I'm all ears, I need an opinion that I know isn't trying to manipulate me.

[Albert B. Rampage]

We have a lot of time. Everyone should go back and read this game including me.

[SensFan]

Albert makes a good point.

Unvote