NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins


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Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:00 pm

Post by Chair »

Magister Ludi wrote:Why was there one kill night one and three night two. Was this answered somewhere in here?

I'll read this soon.

Scum shot + bookie shot + vig shot. n1, empking was supposed to prove his claim, so it would make sense that a real vig wouldn't shoot.
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Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:16 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

SpyreX wrote:I'd lean that way too but its soo strange it bothers me intrinsically (like the Idher business).


Ftr, I misread the bookie role as well.
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Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:27 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

Chair (2): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest (3): mastin2, Chair, saporovirus
MrZepher (1): Yosarian2
saporovirus (1): kunkstar7

Not voting: Îdher, Oversoul, MrZepher, Magister Ludi


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Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 5:02 am

Post by Magister Ludi »

Vote: Mr.Zepher


I'll have a longer post up by tonightish.
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Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 6:10 am

Post by saporovirus »

Why is Chair scum again?

I am going to look into that tonight.
but I love you still

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Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 6:57 am

Post by MrZepher »

lol

Scum: Most scummy
Other scum: Slightly less scummy

Sorry, I felt like I was being clever; I guess I should have clarified better.
or something like that....
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Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:59 am

Post by mastin2 »

"I'm looking into it tonight."
"I'm looking into it."
"I'll get back to you after I look into it."

...How many people are actually paying attention to this game?!? >_< (I realize I am theoretically among those names. :P)
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Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Mon Jul 11, 2011 5:34 pm

Post by ├Ädher »

I've reread a bit. Let's do this.

Empking (8): SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia,
T-Bone
, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul,
Hiraki
, saporovirus


In light of the bookie's nature, I will absolutely not vote anyone off of this list in the near future. Yosarian is obviously town, so he's off the hook. The fact that Kanye even tried to resist it early, immediately after I first drew the thread's attention to the bookie's existence, automatically gives him points, though it bugs me how easily SpyreX convinced him to flip over. Anyway, Amrun thinks he's town, and I'm fine with leaving it at that for now. Oversoul does the same and holds out longer and switches over more convincingly than Kanye, plus he's one of the people who misinterpreted the bookie role (861); I'm pretty sure he's town based on that.

I reeeeeally don't like Sapo's hammer, which is her only post of the day at all. As for her Day 1 play...she voted Empking, yeah, but fairly late into the wagon, and announced that she supported his lynch over the Tripodlynch after he'd claimed, the wagon had dissipated and it was completely obvious that it wasn't happening. She feels sinister. I dunno if there's some other nuance Yosarian saw in her, but if there is, I'm gonna want to hear it.

SpyreX and Ludi's predecessor are also both pretty bad, though Cydonia at least misinterpreted the bookie role. I hate a lot of things about SpyreX's play: his terrible push on Ethos, his terrible disbelief at a fucking Day 1 mason claim that helped lead to the whole masonry getting outed, his terrible pushing of the Emplynch
when he knew that not putting it off would cost us a lynch thanks to parity
.

Of the three, Amrun is least enthusiastic over my SpyreX hate; she's only null on him and has scum reads on the other two. And Ludi just replaced in, so...I dunno, if he wants to confess, that's cool, but otherwise I'm fine joining Kunkstar.

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Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:08 am

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

Chair wrote:Why does this matter? Empking was bookied - if anything, I'd expect scum to be more inclined to jump on the wagon since bussing gives towncred, the lynch was inevitable, and they needed it to happen that day or either the bookie would fail or they would have to use another shot of it (depending on how many shots their bookie has). Is it scummy to have not been on the emp wagon?
Anyone who was neither on that wagon nor strongly protesting it is scummy, yes. Scum wanted the wagon to go through, but it is not a wagon I would like to be on if I were scum.

Chair wrote:If you can't justify why you see it as fake, then your point has no merit. 695: Iirc, someone asked me why I wasn't voting Spyrex. I explained why. 754: first of all, the deadline was fast approaching at that point. As I also explained in that post, Empking is difficult for me to read. I have no idea what you're talking about in "making sure that i was on the empking wagon" - I said I was willing to lynch empking because the deadline was approaching and I think the empking wagon was bigger at that point, and there was also a Yos wagon, and I would have pushed an Emp lynch over a Yos lynch by far. I understand the point you're trying to make, but why if I was trying to keep an option to jump on Emp open would I not have joined his lynch wagon? Isn't it a simpler explanation that it was close to deadline and I wanted to ensure that there would be a lynch?
i did justify why i felt it was fake though. anyways, spyrex elegantly summed it up better than i did. vote town, fos buddy.

Chair wrote:At this point, Misder and I feel strongly about kanyescum, so I'm pushing kanye hard. I'll probably be pushing Spyrex fairly hard tomorrow if kanye is lynched.
Here is a question Chair: you have been mentioning spyrex and me as scum together a lot. if i were lynched today and flipped town, would that affect your read on him? vice versa?

Chair wrote:Now, anyway, to respond to what you DID say... here, you did represent my argument more accurately. However, your logic is still flawed for two reasons:
1) it assumes that every single person on that list is town.
2) it assumes that I'm scum.
1) is obvious, and I think you'd agree that you're assuming that with this argument. I'd also note that you really haven't justified everyone on that list as being town. In order to justify this, you'd either have to justify individual townreads (which you really haven't done) or just justify it by saying that the whole list is town because i'm scum (in which case, you can't use it as an argument against me as it would be circular).l.,uuuuyyuyhyyyh As for 2), here's how it assumes that I'm scum. Lets say that every single person you listed is, by some chance, town. Then my behavior could be two things:
A) scum - I am, as you said, prodding at it.
B) town - I disagree with you and think that your suggestion was indicative of you being scum, and am voicing my disagreement and opinion.
There is no reason that you have given that it can't be B). Now, your response to this will be something like "but all of the people on the list are town, the scum are going to prod at it and you were prodding the hardest" - well, see subpoint 1). And more than that, scum wouldn't even necessarily prod at it - it's conceivable that scum would just ignore it in the hopes that it would dissipate (if it were all town, which I'm pretty damn sure it isn't) and then attack it if it didn't. There's no reason to assume that my behavior is scum behavior when there's a town motivation for my actions and you haven't explained why the scum motivation is more likely.

1) why is this even an issue? if you agreed with his reads, why does his not explaining them weaken the concept of his town voting block. the rest of this is really great bullshit where you try to disprove his argument by..... side stepping the argument completely and arguing about semantics that dont matter? the fact is, if you actually agreed with his town reads (you said you did) then addressing the voting block that may or may not have materialized should not have been high on your agenda as TOWN. the fact that you did attack it suggests that you felt threatened by the possibility of its existence because you are SCUM.

Chair wrote:
SpyreX wrote:Kanye is town although I'm starting to get paranoid at him being gone soo much.

Nice, subtle distancing with scum who's about to be lynched.
town++, scumspy has no reason to distance from me when the most likely lynch candidates for today are myself and his primary target.

idher wrote:though it bugs me how easily SpyreX convinced him to flip over.
im a pushover when the argument is "lets lynch conf scum." i did not notice oversoul's 861 before. regardless, i still hold that scum wanted to be nowhere near that wagon.
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Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:17 am

Post by Oversoul »

I feel like Chair could be scum. If the bookie is multiple shot whoever dies today will have at least 1 scum partner on their wagon as there were really no clear people to lynch like Empking yesterday.

Sapo made a post that I wasn't comfortable with, but I can't find it at this moment. Hold on.
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Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:23 am

Post by Oversoul »

saporovirus wrote:I think Ythan is obvtown, but someone or the other on this Ethos wagon is scum. And that someone is being terribly opportunistic. IIRC, people who piled on that Ethos dealie later included Hikari, Spyrex, KoC (though he changed it to Parabollocks), and Empking. So Empking, why are you voting for Ethos now?


I feel like this could have been a plan in order to raise suspicion against Empking, planning that he would claim Vig, wait lynch someone else, and then once the claim falls through, lynch him with the fact that he was already suspicious.
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Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:07 am

Post by ├Ädher »

I don't think that's why things went down the way they did. I seriously doubt the scum actively decided to trap one of their number in an obviously-lynchable fakeclaim on Day 1 and sacrifice it on Day 2; the "claim vig, stall for day, profit" plan could have worked at any time. (If it was even a plan at all. The fakeclaim/bookie combo didn't occur to me until Day 2; I just assumed he was obvtown until the kill didn't happen. Though it seems obvious in retrospect. Bah.)

Of course. I'm still voting her.

Sidenote:
Post 899, Cydonia wrote:True. If scum came in and speedhammered him to stifle talk, though, it'd be suicide. Can't see anyone doing it.
Post 910, about six hours later, Sapo wrote:I don't believe Empking.

Vote: Empking
Every single post has Cydonia made since then wrote:
[conspicuous lack of acknowledging Sapo]
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Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:09 am

Post by ├Ädher »

(-Ether has forgotten how to sign posts.)
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Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:16 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

agree with idher, thats an extremely unlikely scenario oversoul. as for saporo hammering, she only put empking at L-1. thats still as good as hammering though, i suppose, and something i did not give too much thought to previously.
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Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:35 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Top Secret Replacement Reads:

Scum:
MrZepher: This is THE best possible lynch today. How does anyone read him as town?

Others include possibly SpyreX saporo.

I think this game becomes a lot easier once we lynch Mr.Zepher.

I think the cases on chair and kanye and god knows who else are not that strong at all, I'm not really feeling anti town sentiment from either.
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Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:37 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Willing to explain a little if needed. Realize that was rather short winded.
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Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:41 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

zepher is very likely scum and i dont get yosarian's town read on him. spyrex is town.

why do you think the game becomes easier once we lynch zepher?
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Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:42 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

note, despite being fairly certain zepher is scum, chair is still my #1 choice.
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Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:48 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

huh? Yosarian is voting zepher. And generally, games become easier once scum die and we can build of connections.

I think you should switch to zepher. Do you have a post detaling why chair is more scum to you than him?
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Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:08 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

my mistake, it was mastin who has been throwing out the zepher town reads. dont know why i mixed that up. anyways, i feel that chair scum flip would shed more light on the game than zepher at this point. im going to keep pushing chair for now, but if we can't get more people on board with it i will switch to zepher closer to deadline.
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Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:10 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Also, whats you read on mastin?
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Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:36 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

i originally read ythan as very town, and mastin's initial bits were town as well. rereading his day 2 and day 3 though i'm not sure im prepared to call him super town anymore. he fits my scum criteria of staying off the empking wagon, and defends zepher and claimed he thought there were two scum teams (it was pretty apparent what he meant.) chair scumflip would restore my town faith in him, and im not sure how a zepher scumflip would affect my read on him. for now, hes somewhere between null and town for me.

mastin what are your current reads on chair? what did you mean by "willing to wagon chair"
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Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:46 pm

Post by kunkstar7 »

I could swing for a Chair lynch mainly for the whole "shutdown the townbloc" deal way back when, but sapo is obvious at this point with empking flipped.

Sapo's ISO Post #6 is so passive, "I don't agree with their logic, and they make a lot of plain wrong statements but that's not scummy." Notches Ythan as town and leads into a Yostownread too.
And oh damn this is good:
saporovirus wrote:I don't agree with UT being the #1 lynch. EMPKING GO GO GO.


UT is flipped town. Sapo is asking for an alternative lynch on Empking know that a)it wasn't going to happen, which leads to b)free "towncred" for arguing against a townflip when UT flips without necessarily needing to push an alternative wagon, which is win all around for scum considering UT still got lynched.

Oh cool, found Empkings List-O'-Reads, lets take a look:

Really, really town:
04. Ythan
09. SpyreX


Bet you both here are actually town.


Town:
12. Untrod Tripod

07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05. Knight of Cydonia


Null:
01. saporovirus
02. Swag136 x|x
03. dramonic

06. kanyeknowsbest
13. Chair (implosion + Misder)
14. T-Bone x

15. Oversoul

Scum:
16. kunkstar7
17. Yosarian2
08. Hiraki


Really, really scum:
10. Ethos (Slaxx + Regfan hydra)


Looking at the way Empking did this makes me lean to him placing all scum in the null category, and possibly one in the regular town category. Sapo and Chair both fit here. Yos is likely town too from this.
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Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:56 pm

Post by ├Ädher »

No. We're not lynching Chair or Zephyr. That is not how this is going to go down.

Your criteria is completely backwards. There were 15 players alive yesterday. That gave the town 7 lynches total to find the scum. By lynching Empking yesterday instead of putting it off (or giving a potential vig a night to deal with him, which would have
worked
), we brought that number down to 5. We know now that the bookie can't guess every night; keeping the scum guessing would weaken them. Lynching Empking cost us two lynches instead of one, and freed up the bookie target for other purposes.

We already knew Empking was scum at that point. We didn't need confirmation of his alignment to update our reads on other players. Nothing was accomplished by lynching him sooner, except wasting a lynch--and giving us a wagon full of scum to look at. No one except Hiraki was actually trying to keep Empking alive out of some perceived townishness. They were trying to save a lynch that we should absolutely have been able to save.

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Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Tue Jul 12, 2011 5:40 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Mastin wrote:{SpyreX,
Chair
}, and {Kayne, Yosarian} looks like it's one scum in each group.
^That's what I meant.

I disagree with Kunk. Generally, scum tend to spread the names out as evenly as possible. One in scum (theoretically, Yos2, possibly Kunk--but it is possible this one's all town), one in null (If Yos2 is town, Chair. My second guess, Kayne), and one in town. (Let's include "really town" as well. My guess here is either KoC or Spy, but it's depending on the lower tier of Null. Chair-->more likely KoC, Kayne-->more likely Spy.)

Additionally, I still maintain that the Emp lynch probably contained two scum. (Potentially three, but doubtful that they'd risk it all.)
{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia,
T-Bone
, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2,
Oversoul, Hiraki
, saporovirus}
And 'coincidentally', pretty much all of my suspects are in there, too. The only one absent is Chair.
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