Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[mith]

Fluff: It makes a great deal of sense for you (/your partner) to kill Thor if...

a. You're scum with Chris.
b. You're scum with Marble or Amrun, and the kill was more to do with your partner than yourself.
c. You wanted to be able to make a WIFOM argument that it doesn't make any sense for you to kill Thor (while in 1373 giving motivation for almost everyone else still alive to do so).
d. You're scum with pretty much anyone other than Chris and felt Chris was more lynchable than Thor. (See Also: Chris creeping up Fluff's list, for no apparent reason.)
e. Some combination of the above.

[I can just as easily speculate on the other kills; I'm not particularly familiar with either player, but just based on what I've seen in this game I'd say SocioPath was every bit as unpredictable and viewed as town as InflatablePie; and that it would make no sense for me, if I were scum, to kill IP (who had a strong town read on me - which I know I, and I suspect most players including you, would care more about than whether the target agreed with my reads)... while of course not only did IP list you as one of his top suspects, he was trying rather hard to get you lynched at the end of that day.

But I don't need to know exactly

why

you made those kills; I'm pretty confident that you're scum based on your actions during the day.]

---

DemonHybrid: Why do you think Fluff is town? (Fluff has spent most of the game not being able to defend his vote for me beyond "gut" - even giving that as a reason for voting me in 1368 - yet you call him town in the same post that you call out Amrun for voting on gut.)

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: It makes a great deal of sense for you (/your partner) to kill Thor if...

a. You're scum with Chris.
b. You're scum with Marble or Amrun, and the kill was more to do with your partner than yourself.
c. You wanted to be able to make a WIFOM argument that it doesn't make any sense for you to kill Thor (while in 1373 giving motivation for almost everyone else still alive to do so).
d. You're scum with pretty much anyone other than Chris and felt Chris was more lynchable than Thor. (See Also: Chris creeping up Fluff's list, for no apparent reason.)
e. Some combination of the above.

Well WIFOM but...

a - I wouldnt have. Probably would have gone with marble since most people were pushing that I am scum with him specifically so it would get that out of the way while keeping thor around to lynch you and amrun.
b - Then chris was the kill. Amrun I would have treated this game entirely different if I was scum with her, marble it would be considered but Thor talked in such a way that it wasnt his top pick, so again getting read of universal town read chris is better. Also Amrun? Seriously? Again im not foolish enough to slowly inch a very lynchable partner up my scumlist as the game goes on
c - Backing of my reads by a general town read is far more important than trying to set up a 'maybe WIFOM' situation
d - I have three people solidly over chris in wanting to lynch starting the day so there goes that arguement. The NK and pairing probability pushes chris over equinox as he works with more of my top reads then equinox does. Are you saying you disagree with some of my justification?
e - All covered, yadda yadda.

Either way, I make lots of more unorthidox kills as scum since I usually dont care about the immediate threats, but more where my support is going to come from. Who cares if you get rid of someone who thinks you are scum, ESPECIALLY in a game like this, when no one else is going to listen to your reads? Backing of what you think is going to be the best thing scum can have going for them in this game type. Why would I give away the person who backed my read more than anyone else in the game? Chris would have been the obvious kill if I was scum with anyone but him, if with him probably marble who isnt getting lynched and clears up one of the pairing people are pushing me on. Im not a complete idiot, I know what the right kills for me are as scum, which Thor was most certaintly not.

Anyway!

Impossible pairings (it will NOT be any of these)
Marble-Amrun
Chris-DH
Chris-Marble
Mith-DH
Amrun-DH

Unlikely pairings (not quite as unlikely, but the chance of happening is neglegable)
Equinox-Marble
Equinox-Amrun
Equinox-DH
DH-marble
mith-marble

Neutral Pairings (torn)
Equinox-mith
mith-Amrun

Decent Pairings (good chance)
Chris-mith
Amrun-Chris

Great Pairings (top picks)
Equinox-Chris


See this is where im just frustrated

This list shows DH is town, and marble is almost for sure town (someone challenge one of those, I dare you). Also shows probably not Equinox (writing this out is where my read there shifted). Whats more interesting though is how much it really points to a chris-scum or mith-scum thing here. I mean, as wierd as I KNOW this has to sound, I almost want a Chris lynch. At the same time, mith is a decent lynch since there really are few people he *cant* be scum with.

Just Grah really.

I mean, two bullets at this point? Not even sure really, but I know its in the mith/amrun/chris trio, heavily leaning mith-chris for the two shots, but Amrun really isnt a poor one. Yes im that confused at all this right now, and need to think about it indepth

unvote

[Amrun]

DH, what a lame attack. I've blitzed you as scum before and I could do it again if I wanted to, but I'm not scum and therefore I'm far more interested in having my vote on scum. I could make a case for townfluff or scumfluff at this point, but I simply won't bother.

"Unless I am scum with Chris" from him is wifoming the fuck out of me, though.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm a bit lost. Have we played a game together where you were scum? I can't remember.

Also, yeah. Keep pushing your "gut" case. Its working perfectly, mmyes. Or, you know, you could just hang.

For the record, no one should be voting at this point without evidence. It can be PART gut, but 56 pages in, you should have something relevant to the conversation.

[TheButtonmen]

D4VC2:

Amrun (2): Llamamarble, DH
LlamaFluff (2): mith, Amrun
DH (1): ChrisB

Not Voting (2): Equinox, LlamaFluff

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

[Amrun]

New Designers, remember?

[DemonHybrid]

New Designers, remember?

Oh. Right.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Chris

It makes too much sense.

[Amrun]

How?

[LlamaFluff]

NKs and possible pairings mostly. Also he just voted DH and im like "oh hellz no he didnt" so I went back and looked at other stuff and then was like "oh snap he actually could be scum here"

Oh and by the way, I get lynched that means under no circumstances DH or marble get lynched tomorrow. Seriously, to the extent where either of them being voted should be taken as a confession of being scum.

[DemonHybrid]

Chris and Amrun?

How likely are those two?

[Amrun]

0%

[DemonHybrid]

0%

I wasn't asking you, but you can give me evidence against that case if you'd like.

[Amrun]

I'm not scum and it's unlikely Chris is, especially due to his daytalk slip that we discussed in previous days.

[DemonHybrid]

Still the daytalk slip? My lord.

[LlamaFluff]

Amrun-Chris is likely enough... really not sure how to assign things like that percentages since there are so many variables though. It would be a top three choice for me however.

@Amrun - The slip is the *only* reason to not consider him obviously scum, and the only reason I didnt vote him until now. Just everything else points at it though. His way of constantly saying DGB is scummy yet finding a way to keep his suspicion limited and then push onto the opposing wagon which felt a little out of place. Subsequent pushes have also been lacking in just about everything, especially the DH attack which I really do not see happening. Also are you agreeing that when I get lynched you are never going to vote DH or Marble? I want you to say it such to the extent that if you vote them you will be auto-lynched.

[Amrun]

P sure it is game over if we mislynch today. So uh. But I will not be voting for DH ever. Not so sure about Marble.

And yes, STILL THAT. It didn't go away.

[Equinox]

Sorry, guys. Things have been insane over here, but the self-imposed 5-day deadline to get things done still applies to me.

P sure it is game over if we mislynch today. So uh. But I will not be voting for DH ever. Not so sure about Marble.

Nope. If we mislynch today, tomorrow is LyLo.

[mith]

Fluff: I want to see some reasoning for those pairings. I'm also interested in your stance on Equinox - you say he's "probably not" scum, yet have him in your top pairing; meanwhile, you include Amrun in your trio of lynch options, yet have every pairing with Amrun as less likely or on the same level as the corresponding Equinox pair.

Amrun: 1377's "I've blitzed you as scum before and I could do it again if I wanted to..." sets off alarm bells for me; could you summarize what happened in that game?

[LlamaFluff]

To better show what I mean with the possible slip is the ONLY thing that Chris has going for him...

Goof also has my FOS, based on his jumping all over lurkers within hours of the game starting. Lurker-hunting is always a nice way to make it look like you're doing something active. On top of that, his 'town list' corresponds exactly with my 'scum list'.

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he.

<snip>

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

<snip>

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

Ok this is big.

Chris first takes a little lolz FoS DGB because she is harping on him hard for lurking (yet never actually attacks him hard). Later, all is from ONE post which is just wow. First he lays out that Equniox is his top scum pick, fair enough, then we move on to DGB where he says he likes the SP case on her and gives credit to it, yet wont vote and instead throws the vote on the counterwagon (who according to line one is not his top pick). It feels way off for him to brush by his top pick and jump on a latter one while at the same time saying he agrees with the case on scum, yet wont vote for them.

@Amrun - Who is marble scum with?
@Chris - Who is DH scum with?

[DemonHybrid]

Amrun, give me the best case you can against Chris B scum. Next post.

[Chris B]

Sorry about recent quietness. Been ludicrously busy, and somewhat ill this week. Will try and catch up tonight/tomorrow.

[Chris B]

Wow. Hadn't read up yet, and just saw Fluff aiming his sights right at me. I think DH is scum because of the Llamarble defense the day before. It struck me entirely as 'he can only be scum if scum defend him, so let's wait for scum to defend him to see if he's scum' - which is an awesome defense and delay if you're scum as well. So in answer to your question, I think he's scum with Llamarble.

Re Equi - I pushed hard against Equi early, to the point where I was accused of tunnelling. I didn't vote DGB because I was trying not to go with gut. I didn't vote Equi because I was the only voice shouting about that.

[Chris B]

To better show what I mean with the possible slip is the ONLY thing that Chris has going for him...

Goof also has my FOS, based on his jumping all over lurkers within hours of the game starting. Lurker-hunting is always a nice way to make it look like you're doing something active. On top of that, his 'town list' corresponds exactly with my 'scum list'.

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he.

<snip>

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

<snip>

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

Ok this is big.

Chris first takes a little lolz FoS DGB because she is harping on him hard for lurking (yet never actually attacks him hard). Later, all is from ONE post which is just wow. First he lays out that Equniox is his top scum pick, fair enough, then we move on to DGB where he says he likes the SP case on her and gives credit to it, yet wont vote and instead throws the vote on the counterwagon (who according to line one is not his top pick). It feels way off for him to brush by his top pick and jump on a latter one while at the same time saying he agrees with the case on scum, yet wont vote for them.

@Amrun - Who is marble scum with?
@Chris - Who is DH scum with?

I notice you didn't mention that I'd had my vote on Equinox for days at that point. Following a huge post where I laid out EXACTLY my case against her, and was ignored by everyone.

[Amrun]

Mith: I replaced into an uncomfirmed spot on day 1; 1/3 of my scumbuddy was on his way to a lynch, and was lynched day 1. I basically was never suspected at all, and was most people's strongest townreads even through LyLo. When DH died, his last words were that I was the player he trusted most. Won that game, obviously, and got a scummy nomination after it. Trying not to toot my own horn, here, but you asked. It was easily my best game ever. I've had plenty of bad ones, but that one was good. Link in my wiki.

DH: I'm phone posting from work, so a case will have to wait. It is fairly safe to say that the best case on ChrisB involves his fencesitting on DGB and how he avoided the wagon. My point is that to make a case based on that ignores lots of other factors that point to ChrisB town, such as DGB's last-ditch attempt to wagon him, his new to MS status, and his daytalk slip. It's similar for most people, including you; for example, your Sotty hammer was terribad, but your reaction to your own "hammer" convinced me you are town.