My Little Pony Mafia - GENOCIDAL FRIENDSHIP PONIES

[Twilight Sparkle]

Day 2: Votecount #1

Mina:

hohum

Equinox:

Cogito Ergo Sum

Ojanen:

Jahudo

Espeonage:

Equinox

Not Voting:

Eseponage, Fluttershy,, Inhimshallibe Mina, Ojanen, Pinkie Pie, Primate

Day 2 deadline

Deadline is (expired on 2011-07-18 11:30:00)

which is the 18th of July at 11:30am EST.

[inHimshallibe]

Oh, hey.

Need to sort out some thoughts.

[Ojanen]

I think the worst WLC vote, that also tipped the momentum the most, should be discussed at the start of today.
@Ojanen: Why base your argument on something WLC was not doing by the time you voted? (that he wasn't taking a stand on Jahudo vs. inHim)
Why didn't you mention WLC had scum reads on both Jahudo and inHim in the post you had a problem with? Why didn't you see that as a hurdle in making that stand? Why didn't you ask him to weigh the options?

Middle question: I see you have not properly read my vote post.
I

specifically

quoted from his "reads of everybody" post his reads,

only

his reads on inHim, you and Pinkie. My subsequent EBWOP underlines this by noting I forgot to put [...] marks to indicate it wasn't the whole post. I emphatically wasn't ignoring it.
My vote was based on reaction timings. Inhim and you were at L-3, not too long to deadline, he states scumreads on both but chooses to sideline with an ultra-classical lurker vote (has anyone ever seen a single obviously not feasible lynch wagon lurker vote late in the day be useful?); then a couple of days later the wagons aren't moving anywhere, he himself has gained a vote, and he votes between Jah. inHim with recycled feeling arguments.
I got a (obviously false) gut feeling from the Jahudo vote and went back to his iso. The reaction thing was also referring to the fact that he found inhim's attack on him suspect late in the day, but did not state anything to that direction while initially defending himself.
I also didn't like him saying that Equinox might be scum with you despite his townread on Equi - he acknowledged it so not talking about contradiction, rather the ease on which to give up a townread in favour of something as (in my view of mafia) magnificently weak as D1 buddy guesses without any flips.

Jahudo: what is your position on inHim after flips?

V/LA for next 24 hours. Haven't had a chance to re-review D1 yet - getting more confident on a smallish pool of suspects, will elaborate asap.

[Ojanen]

also Jahudo: she, not he. we've played as scum together. you've helped me fake role pm screenshots. I'm OJ from Ojando hydra from Adel's hydra double games.

[Mina]

Vote: Espeonage

I think you spelled Mina wrong, but I might be open to an Espe lynch today.

I am going to blow your mind.

VOTE: Espeonage

Espeonage, please mention a single player you think something positive or negative about. I can relate to being in catch-up hell, but surely you have at least ONE opinion on something you've missed, right? I mean, anything? Did you see a single post you thought was good or bad? Otherwise, why don't you just replace out?

Oh, @CES, in all honesty, the "claiming scum" thing was a large chunk rhetoric to get a rise out of Espeonage. Yes, I can conceivably see Espeonage being really bad town. But it wasn't the fact that he voted WLC "to get a lynch" so much as that he basically side-stepped my vote on him and all the people asking

Oh, speaking of which, hohum, there's something I was meaning to ask you about when the thread opened. Now you threw me off by voting me and defending Equinox, but...

That's the scummiest thing equinox has done all day.

Was the "scummiest thing" Equinox's last-ditch Fluttershy wagon? Why did you comment on this, but not my not-a-prayer-in-hell vote on Espeonage? Also, what made you see the light on Equinox?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I am going to blow your mind.

VOTE: Espeonage

Did not see that coming. Not sure why you think your Espvote warranted a response by the bye; I would've ignored it.

#528 is a town tell.

[Ojanen]

Oh Jahudo:
meant to ask: state my scum-motivation for jumping to WLC from you if you are town, please.

[Jahudo]

I

specifically

quoted from his "reads of everybody" post his reads,

only

his reads on inHim, you and Pinkie. My subsequent EBWOP underlines this by noting I forgot to put [...] marks to indicate it wasn't the whole post. I emphatically wasn't ignoring it.

There is a difference between acknowledging that he did talk about every player, and acknowledging that you have an interpretation on the details. You didn't mention how he had scum reads on both of us and what that meant for his vote. You forced that conclusion about him just settling with a lurker without first pressuring him about why he didn't make a decision between Jahudo and inHim scum reads. Your thought process doesn't look town there.

My vote was based on reaction timings. Inhim and you were at L-3, not too long to deadline, he states scumreads on both but chooses to sideline with an ultra-classical lurker vote (has anyone ever seen a single obviously not feasible lynch wagon lurker vote late in the day be useful?); then a couple of days later the wagons aren't moving anywhere, he himself has gained a vote, and he votes between Jah. inHim with recycled feeling arguments.
I got a (obviously false) gut feeling from the Jahudo vote and went back to his iso. The reaction thing was also referring to the fact that he found inhim's attack on him suspect late in the day, but did not state anything to that direction while initially defending himself.

Again you did not characterize it that way, so now it just looks like you are trying to revise the past. The reaction timings is another suspicion but again I don't understand how you act like its new to you at that time. Didn't you know he was that big of a lurker on your initial read? So what, you were just waiting to throw that suspicion out there when he finally did try to contribute? I'm not used to seeing people lay traps for lurkers like that.

I also didn't like him saying that Equinox might be scum with you despite his townread on Equi - he acknowledged it so not talking about contradiction, rather the ease on which to give up a townread in favour of something as (in my view of mafia) magnificently weak as D1 buddy guesses without any flips.

Any reason why you didn't bring that up back then?

Jahudo: what is your position on inHim after flips?

Still scum. I wasn't convincing anyone all yesterday so I figure the best thing to do is take a step back and focus on looking for scum elsewhere. If I see him doing new scummy stuff, you bet I'll try and convince people of him.

also Jahudo: she, not he. we've played as scum together. you've helped me fake role pm screenshots. I'm OJ from Ojando hydra from Adel's hydra double games.

I didn't call you a he, but I did call you a she seven times.

meant to ask: state my scum-motivation for jumping to WLC from you if you are town, please.

Plenty of possible reasons. Two vote changes to my wagon before your vote switch off, meant it was still at L-2 and had the possibility of being the lynch without your help. Scum would want that. But even if you were hopeful to be a part of a WLC lynch, there is still the notion that my wagon could be viable on day 2 regardless of WLC's alignment. A WLC day 2 wagon could be less viable if he were to commit to the game and make reads, not be a lurker.

[Ojanen]

I couldn't get to sleep.

There is a difference between acknowledging that he did talk about every player, and acknowledging that you have an interpretation on the details. You didn't mention how he had scum reads on both of us and what that meant for his vote. You forced that conclusion about him just settling with a lurker without first pressuring him about why he didn't make a decision between Jahudo and inHim scum reads. Your thought process doesn't look town there.

I guess I could have been more elaborate, but it should be obvious I specifically choose to cut and paste the quotes I chose to make a point on him having scum reads on both you and inhim. what other purpose do you think the quoting of 3 snipped passages serves? come on. i didn't think it was necessary to say "look, he says here this" when the scumreads stand right there, and I continue to say that vote was for plain lurker while both inhim and jahudo are viable wagons, and his previous voted (chesskid) is also still hated by him - the whole argument stands on the premises I quoted.
I didn't question before voting because it was 2 days to deadline. I wanted my vote in play, creating a dynamic where it would be likelier to have competing wagons on shady characters instead of the obvtown inHim. Also, I meant to follow situation, perhaps come back to you, but life got in the way and I never saw the thread again before hammer again.

Again you did not characterize it that way, so now it just looks like you are trying to revise the past. The reaction timings is another suspicion but again I don't understand how you act like its new to you at that time. Didn't you know he was that big of a lurker on your initial read? So what, you were just waiting to throw that suspicion out there when he finally did try to contribute? I'm not used to seeing people lay traps for lurkers like that.

Oh this is the same rubbish you fought over and over with inHim yesterday.
I did not state in as many words as now but all of it is perfectly compatible. Mine was a reaction vote to gut on WLC simul; went back and checked his iso; posted about 15 min later a short elaboration on what bothered me in the iso.
Also, I'm a replacement. I posted in the thread from SUNDAY to WEDNESDAY (next access WLC hammered). started cathing up sunday. 35 hour traveling v/la monday/tuesday. no real linear all-encompassing catch up post. I wasn't waiting anything; things were occuring to me naturally late; still need another read for proper internalizement of late D1.

Any reason why you didn't bring that up back then?

It's how gut works. A post bothers you. AFTER that you try to pick it apart. reasoning=gut that you have subjected to self-reflection and deciphered to some extent.
the Equi thing was on my mind when I read the vote post and wrote a P-EDIT. then I went back and looked at the iso and posted about that. now I looked at the page again, remembered the bad feeling andf picked it apart.

Jahudo: what is your position on inHim after flips?

Still scum. I wasn't convincing anyone all yesterday so I figure the best thing to do is take a step back and focus on looking for scum elsewhere. If I see him doing new scummy stuff, you bet I'll try and convince people of him.

We disagree massively, again.
Gamma was the nightkill. For being universally seen as obvtown, I expect. Buuuut. Let's say you were town, and inHim was scum. Scum kill huge defender of one of their own, AND the biggest attacker of you (in turn the biggest attacker of inHim-hyposcum). Makes the whole dynamics muuch more unpredictable. There's always wifom involved in nightkill analyze, but this one isn't obvious enough (a common enough thought pattern brought up) to be a likely candidate for mindfuck shenigans - scum benefit for keeping Gamma alive to defend inHIm and attack you is tangible.
I say Gamma kill solidifies my TOWN!!!! read on inHIm.
Also, interesting if you're still "certain" inhIm is scum and think I'm a buddy white knighting him like hell.

I didn't call you a he, but I did call you a she seven times.

I apologize. I'm very sleep-debted atm; I somehow managed to read your WLC-referrals in a paragraph related to also me as referrals to me. came to my mind cause I think you asked D1 where I had seen you play scum.

[hohum]

That's the scummiest thing equinox has done all day.

Was the "scummiest thing" Equinox's last-ditch Fluttershy wagon? Why did you comment on this, but not my not-a-prayer-in-hell vote on Espeonage? Also, what made you see the light on Equinox?

Two votes does not constitute a wagon. He had plenty of other targets that were quite a bit well more on the way to L-0 than Fluttershy was.

Anyways I don't know what to make of Equinox. At the moment I'm concerned with two things. Lynching you and confirming jahudo's role. (and possibly even his alignment in the process)

@Jahudo: I need to know if you're on board with the confirmation plan as I've laid it out and if not, you need to state why. If you're in agreement with my plan you need to consider leaving Ojanen alone to her own devices for the rest of the day.

[Jahudo]

I only have a problem with that confirmation plan if it requires me to limit my voting focus. I'd rather just be lynched than turn into even a limited proxy.
We can just switch out one of the three people you named in case they get a healthy wagon on them. Or are they not an arbitrary selection?

I guess I could have been more elaborate, but it should be obvious I specifically choose to cut and paste the quotes I chose to make a point on him having scum reads on both you and inhim. what other purpose do you think the quoting of 3 snipped passages serves? come on. i didn't think it was necessary to say "look, he says here this" when the scumreads stand right there, and I continue to say that vote was for plain lurker while both inhim and jahudo are viable wagons, and his previous voted (chesskid) is also still hated by him - the whole argument stands on the premises I quoted.

I think you are backtracking now. You actually made it clear that those quotes were meant to highlight WLC's lack of Jahudo and inHim reads before that point. That he had a problem with inHim's earlier play but hadn't mentioned it until then. That's what you actually talked about, not how he could justify having two scum reads on two larger wagons and not voting one of them.

I didn't question before voting because it was 2 days to deadline. I wanted my vote in play, creating a dynamic where it would be likelier to have competing wagons on shady characters instead of the obvtown inHim. Also, I meant to follow situation, perhaps come back to you, but life got in the way and I never saw the thread again before hammer again.

Fair enough that you wanted to draw more attention to WLC's lack of good scumhunting around decision time, but my main point remains that you didn't ask the real questions while you placed the vote.

I did not state in as many words as now but all of it is perfectly compatible. Mine was a reaction vote to gut on WLC simul; went back and checked his iso; posted about 15 min later a short elaboration on what bothered me in the iso.
Also, I'm a replacement. I posted in the thread from SUNDAY to WEDNESDAY (next access WLC hammered). started cathing up sunday. 35 hour traveling v/la monday/tuesday. no real linear all-encompassing catch up post. I wasn't waiting anything; things were occuring to me naturally late; still need another read for proper internalizement of late D1.

But are you telling me you didn't get that vibe off WLC when you read? It really seemed as though you were surprised he hadn't talked about anyone.

It's how gut works. A post bothers you. AFTER that you try to pick it apart. reasoning=gut that you have subjected to self-reflection and deciphered to some extent.
the Equi thing was on my mind when I read the vote post and wrote a P-EDIT. then I went back and looked at the iso and posted about that. now I looked at the page again, remembered the bad feeling andf picked it apart.

So what made you think it was less likely that WLC did the same thing? Sure it took him ten days but in that time he wasn't posting much else, claimed not to have free time, and might have spent some of that time just reading the thread and staying on the scumtell he felt was straight-forward and clear.

Gamma was the nightkill. For being universally seen as obvtown, I expect. Buuuut. Let's say you were town, and inHim was scum. Scum kill huge defender of one of their own, AND the biggest attacker of you (in turn the biggest attacker of inHim-hyposcum). Makes the whole dynamics muuch more unpredictable. There's always wifom involved in nightkill analyze, but this one isn't obvious enough (a common enough thought pattern brought up) to be a likely candidate for mindfuck shenigans - scum benefit for keeping Gamma alive to defend inHIm and attack you is tangible.
I say Gamma kill solidifies my TOWN!!!! read on inHIm.
Also, interesting if you're still "certain" inhIm is scum and think I'm a buddy white knighting him like hell.

I try not to speculate on night kills and I'm not interested in arguing connections until we get our first scum flip. But those theories do not make me think any less of my opinions.

[hohum]

I only have a problem with that confirmation plan if it requires me to limit my voting focus. I'd rather just be lynched than turn into even a limited proxy.

Limited focus implies that I'm asking you to focus your lynching efforts to a specific subset of individuals. I'm simply asking you to not lynch ojanen. It's a reasonable request in context -- which is basically a confirmed jahudo.

[hohum]

EBWOP. This was a half-completed thought. Edited for clairty.

I only have a problem with that confirmation plan if it requires me to limit my voting focus. I'd rather just be lynched than turn into even a limited proxy.

Limited focus implies that I'm asking you to focus your lynching efforts to a specific subset of individuals. I'm simply asking you to not lynch ojanen. It's a reasonable request in context, especially if you believe I am town as you've been claiming in your reads for a while now.

This could potentially lead to you being confirmed.

[Espeonage]

Ok bored with my personal projects. So catchup time it is. rereads and I don't get along well. Iso's and I get along much better. Will report results once I have done a few. Then I'll become an active member of the town and help us win. So les go.

[Espeonage]

@ Mina: Have you seen how much I have looked at this game. If you want something instant I would go to the vote count and look at the analysis. from what I did see it was the kind of easy lynch wagon that scum work hard to remain impartial about until the end. So I would be looking there at the moment. Also the person on tipping point should be under scrutiny, taking in to account the race-esqe finish the the day we had.

[Espeonage]

Based on what i just said. Hohum will be my first iso.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Prodding Pinkie Pie and Fluttershy

[inHimshallibe]

Jahudo should not be the lynch for today. I was too caught up in the inHim arguments that when I went back and fully isoed him I found something I really missed.

To answer Jahudo's question, I don't want to chose either. I don't agree with your points on inHim and that you are making a case where there isn't one. But if it was a life or death choice, I would pick inHim.

Chesskid slot is still looking town imo.
VOTE: WLC

I believe nothing changed much on my opinion of him

Fluttershy's stated opinion of WLC are in http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p3147444 and http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p3154878, which to me look like a whole bunch of nothing. "At first scum but leaning null" and then a post with lots of words not directed at WLC summed up with some pittance vote for WLC based on... conjecture? I really should have looked into this more before this point.

vote: Fluttershy

- this name was brought up a lot Yesterday as a compromise, but nothing now. O.o

Jahudo's Ojanen vote is extremely odd. Like, seriously, it's as if you decided I'm unlynchable and so nevermind?

[inHimshallibe]

My schedule is changing this month because of traveling so I'll probably only post once a day.

Time to analyze the lynch wagon:

- Primate was always straight-forward about wanting a WLC lynch and not wanting a Jahudo lynch, though didn't give much reason whether that was due to time constraints or the nature of his case?

- Fluttershy's change does confuse me. She was voting for me then came up with some piece of information that made her unvote me. She never explained what this was:

I went back and fully isoed him I found something I really missed.

So what was it? Otherwise I can't follow why she'd say in one post that I was twisting inHim words, then in the next saying that if forced to she'd vote him over me.

- Ojanen's vote switch from me to WLC was suspicious because she isolates one aspect and ignores the rest. She claims that WLC shouldn't be voting a lurker that doesn't have a real wagon on them at that point in the game. She says he should instead take a stance on Jahudo vs. inHim, like some of us also asked of him. But she ignores where, in that same post, he does mention he has scum reads on both of us. And he does, before she votes him, make a choice to vote me. Clearly he was weighing his scum reads at the time and pressuring a lurker until he was ready to make that choice. She doesn't even bother to analyze that post and argue that his Jahudo vote is a bad timing, etc, which makes me question if she really wanted to talk about it.

- CES's vote has its questions but I should probably keep in mind that it is CES. He didn't label WLC as a top three suspect before his vote, but the wagon was the only other big one at the time. It's understandable he places some value in claims that can be tested. I just wish there was a little more info from him day 1 to help explain where WLC was on his reads and if I was his top suspect or just the top wagon at that time too. Some of that can be excused by being a late replacement, so I don't feel bad about his voting.

- hohum I had the feeling he thought both myself and WLC were lean town most of the day. But I trust he was very concerned with getting a lynch passed and his late vote, after trying to get other wagons to form, looks like a town effort to me.

- Espy's vote could have easily been done by town to ensure a lynch happened. Even though he saw WLC as scum-bait and me as just plain scum, in order to get a Jahudo lynch passed at his point would have required some votes from no-shows Pinkie Pie, Mina, and a vote from Equinox. I think town or scum can easily justify that position so its pretty null. It would have been more townish if he had been more active in trying to get his preferred lynch going earlier, instead of waiting to ISO me and just voting me without any comment.

- Equinox early on had both myself and WLC as more scummy than not. As the day went along he argued that myself and inHim could be having a town on town argument and that argument is fair enough, although I'd be interested to hear more of the details.
There's also the fact that he had to vote WLC but overall his vote was fine.

Pinkie and Mina looked like they only just showed up around the L-1 vote and were not fully caught up. Well, Mina looked more aware of all the details but was still trying to analyze possibilities of my claim and people's voting motivations. Pinkie looked lost. inHim's lack of a vote is understandable, though it would be fun to hear his reasoning in his own words to see if I guessed why. I still have a scum read on him, but my vote is going elsewhere right now.

Can I get your reads from these?

Primate TOWN
Fluttershy ?
Ojanen SCUM
CES ?
hohum TOWN
Espeonage ?
Equinox ?

Changing the question marks to your reads based on the vote analysis and correcting me if I misinterpreted you.

Bah, ran out of time at work. Will continue later.

[Equinox]

I'm sorry, guys. It's either this or wait forever for me to catch up, and I think we all can agree that the game doesn't need any more lurkers; therefore, I'm

requesting replacement

.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay, thanks Equinox. Will work on that now

[Equinox]

Oh, by the way, don't let Pinkie Pie lurk to victory. That's what I was alluding to earlier in my response to Jahudo; Katsuki tends to lurk more as scum from what I've seen, and it's a bloody hydra.

[Fluttershy]

My apologies everyone. Apparently, all my attention has been funneled down to one of my current games. Soon will be back while I play ketchup!

[Pinkie Pie]

MPR flaked. Or at least, I don't think he's even read the game.

I play lurk2victory whenever I'm busy IRL.

Good thing I've already caught scum though.

Vote: Mina

[Fluttershy]

I would like you to confirm your role. You're welcome to pick any of the three of Myself, Primate or Ojanen to neighborize with any other person in the game.

Odd list you have here. You spend D1 saying that you would be willing to vote for Ojanen's slot and Primate's slot was leaning scum. Today, you pick those two to join you in a "confirmable" group and that Ojanen will not be lynched. Puzzling how you came to this list...

- Fluttershy's change does confuse me. She was voting for me then came up with some piece of information that made her unvote me. She never explained what this was

Correct. I didn't. I saw your last crumb (the "TO THE MOON" in caps in your latest post at that point) and that got me thinking. I thought you said something like that before, and I went back and checked it. You did. I missed it before because I was so interested in the inHim arguments it just slipped my mind. I was not about to continue to push a lynch on someone who was crumbing to be one of the most powerful ponies in all of Equestria. If it was scum crumbing, that could be dealt with at a later date. Of course I wasn't going to go "lol hey guyz, I found Jahudo crumbing his role as Princess Celestia"

(yeah, totally got sidetracked here, but my main game just finished so we will be good later (>_>)b )