Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over


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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:26 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day One: Vote Count #15


6 Hiraki (Pomegranate, iamausername, smallpeoples343, [Low Key], Amrun, Ameliaslay)
4 kunkstar7 (WeyounsLastClone, Ranmaru, RedCoyote, iamausername)
3 Ranmaru ([Low Key], Ameliaslay, Empking)
3 WeyounsLastClone (Amrun, Empking, Pomegranate)
2 Ameliaslay (Ranmaru, imaginality)
2 Crazy (Ellibereth, kunkstar7)
2 iamausername (Hiraki, Ellibereth)
2 imaginality (Hiraki, Crazy)
2 Pomegranate (imaginality, kunkstar7)
1 Amrun (WeyounsLastClone)
1 Ellibereth (Crazy)
1 smallpeoples343 (RedCoyote)

With
15
alive, it takes
8
to lynch. Deadline is July 15 at 4:00 PM PDT.

Not Voting – 0 – Nobody
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:28 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

I have reason to believe 2/3 of his scumreads were not based on the small wagon. [originally]
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:32 pm

Post by iamausername »

[Low Key] wrote:
I made a mistake in saying the RVS was irrelevant but tried to dodge by saying it was about Eli and then recanted that and said again I made a mistake.



This is probably an even better point against him than my one, because it's even less plausible for a town player to make the 'mistake' that Hiraki claims to have made here. How on earth do you 'accidentally' say that RVS is irrelevant when you don't actually believe that?
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:39 pm

Post by [Low Key] »

iamausername wrote:
Ranmaru wrote:Alright. Iam, did you believe that he was faking suspicion on Imag? Is this the premise of your suspicion?


Somewhat. I think he's faking all of his suspicions, and imaginality is one of those, so yeah.

He claims to have looked at the smallwagon, seen 2 out of 3 of his early scumreads on it, then 'doubted himself', checked the wagon again and counted 3 out of 3 of his early scumreads on it, even though we was actually right the first time.

I do not believe it is plausible that he would make this mistake. I don't see how, if he was genuinely suspicious of imaginality, he could completely imagine his presence on that wagon
when he was specifically looking to see if he'd made a mistake in his count
. I think it is much more likely that the mistake he made was forgetting who his three early scumreads were. Specifically, one of the people he voted for at the start of the game was Empking, who was on the smallwagon. Add me and Ellibereth, and that gives you the three he counted.

And, obviously, forgetting who his early scum reads were is a lot more likely to happen if he is faking those reads, which would make him scum.

I would also like to point out that I encountered similar cog-dis with each of the points that I covered as well. Based on the two cases, there is a similar pattern of cog-dis throughout his play.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:44 pm

Post by [Low Key] »

And how do you miss the green bolded NK less than two inches above your own post?? He stated he didn't even know who the NK even was.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:44 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Hey Lk, can you quote what Iam is referring to in his #402?
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:45 pm

Post by [Low Key] »

Ranmaru wrote:I have reason to believe 2/3 of his scumreads were not based on the small wagon. [originally]

This is an interesting catch. I'd like to see how you got this. Your requested quote coming up.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:55 pm

Post by [Low Key] »

[Low Key] wrote:
First off, your first question is extremely inconsequential.
This is RVS, it's got nothing to do with the real game
.

This is such a terrible argument on its own merits BUT I have seen Hiraki scum hunt in RVS before and use it as a scum hunting tool so,
LIE
. Why does Hiraki need to lie about the value of the RVS in his own defense?

Hiraki wrote:
[LowKey wrote:This is such a terrible argument on its own merits BUT I have seen Hiraki scum hunt in RVS before and use it as a scum hunting tool so, LIE. Why does Hiraki need to lie about the value of the RVS in his own defense?
That is true, that was a bad statement by yours truly. I think I was saying it more towards the use that Elliberith gave it.

Hiraki wrote:
Low Key wrote:Could you please clarify what you mean by this? Because you used this as a defense against my initial reasons to vote you.
I mean that while RVS is useful, Eliberith was not using it in the best pro-town way.

Hiraki wrote:
Low Key wrote:Your quote was: "This is the RVS, it has nothing to do with the real game". How come your above answer doesn't jive as a defense of that statement?
Because, like I said before, I'm not infallible and I make mistakes.

Sequential ISO #43
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:57 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

#109

Ok, let us remember that Iam asked who his 3 suspicions were. They were
Iam, Imag, and Elli
. In the quote linked above.

Spoiler: Hiraki's suspicion towards Iam
iamausername wrote:VOTE: RedCoyote

Pre-emptive OMGUS because I'm sure he'll be bearing a grudge after Khan's game. :D

VOTE: smallpeoples343

for other reasons.



Hiraki wrote:
Unvote: Empking
Vote: Iamausername

Here, he votes you immediately after you vote smalls for other reasons. I didn't know this was possibly the reason until his defense of the Smalls wagon being newb and an easy target.



Spoiler: Hiraki's suspicion towards Elli
Ellibereth wrote:Who's played with Furry before.
I have.


Hiraki wrote:This is your first post?

DAMN IT.


Ellibereth wrote:Is that a yes or a no.


Hiraki wrote:Oh. I wasn't sure if that was a question.

No.

Here, Hiraki is astonished to Elli starting out with a question about the NK over N0. I don't know why he felt this was a scumtell, but I'm sure this pinged Elli on his scumdar. This also makes his unvote of Elli make more sense, even though the reasoning was not the best. This has nothing to do with smalls, but Elli asking about a nk and this might have rubbed Hiraki the wrong way.


Spoiler: Hiraki's suspicion towards Imag
imaginality wrote:I've played with: Amrun (ongoing), Ellibereth, iamausername, RedCoyote, WeyounsLastClone.

Vote: Pomegranate
Same reason as Empking. It's a milder version of claiming to have used random.org

Vote: Crazy
for:

In 15 Crazy wrote:I'm also struggling to figure out why you asked that question. What were you planning on doing with the results to your survey?


First sentence seems disingenuous, second seems counter-productive.



Hiraki wrote:
Unvote: Empking

Vote: imaginality



Hiraki wrote:EWBOP: Derp.

All three are scum.

Triple dip where are you.

Unvote: Elliberith
Vote: Imaginality


Here it seems Hiraki voted Imag due to something he said in his previous post. As you can see, Hiraki usually would vote right after he saw the scumtell in a reactionary stance. Anyways, Imag didn't speak of Smalls in his first post, so Hiraki couldn't have voted him because of something Imag said related to Smalls, because he has said nothing of him.


Also remember that the Smalls wagon only had one vote on it, so his suspicion couldn't have been based on the Smalls wagon because he had suspected 2/3 of his scumpicks before it even was pushed further.

Pedit: Thank you LK. I'll be looking at it and I'll give thoughts.
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:34 am

Post by [Low Key] »

I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:36 am

Post by Ranmaru »

I would like some comments on what I found. (From everyone)
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 12:40 am

Post by [Low Key] »

I'm sorry I couldn't understand it. It seemed to me that Hiraki stated that he had 3 scum suspects and that those suspects then appeared on the smalls wagon (whoop dee doo, Smalls was megascummy). I don't think Hiraki was saying that they were his suspects BECAUSE they were on the wagon but that they were pre-existing suspects. Amrun does point out though that Hiraki's certainty about small was unnatural due to small's obv-scum status; I do tend to agree.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:17 am

Post by Amrun »

Hiraki's defense of "I'm stupid, I make mistakes" is out of character for him. Not sure what to make of it.
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:20 am

Post by [Low Key] »

Ya him declaring the RVS as totally meaningless is definitely ott, especially for him.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:26 am

Post by Hiraki »

Amrun wrote:Hiraki's defense of "I'm stupid, I make mistakes" is out of character for him. Not sure what to make of it.
Damnit it Amrun.

You are using meta, and it's annoying me.

LowKey wrote:I'm sorry I couldn't understand it. It seemed to me that Hiraki stated that he had 3 scum suspects and that those suspects then appeared on the smalls wagon (whoop dee doo, Smalls was megascummy).
Right. Newbs are usually uber scummy like this.

LowKey wrote:I don't think Hiraki was saying that they were his suspects BECAUSE they were on the wagon but that they were pre-existing suspects. Amrun does point out though that Hiraki's certainty about small was unnatural due to small's obv-scum status; I do tend to agree.
Explain.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:41 am

Post by Amrun »

A) I wasn't using it to implicate anything.

B) It is a valuable tool and I don't care if you don't like it. It should never be used on its own, or at least that should be avoided, but this game is about psychology and behavioral trends increase the accuracy of assessments.
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 4:46 am

Post by Hiraki »

Amrun wrote:A) I wasn't using it to implicate anything.

B) It is a valuable tool and I don't care if you don't like it. It should never be used on its own, or at least that should be avoided, but this game is about psychology and behavioral trends increase the accuracy of assessments.
Sure, but realize that you've already said that you've only played 2 games with me that have finished, or that I have flipped.

That's really not enough to tell my meta. I don't think you're scum, but this play is really annoying.
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:18 am

Post by [Low Key] »

Hiraki wrote:
LowKey wrote:I don't think Hiraki was saying that they were his suspects BECAUSE they were on the wagon but that they were pre-existing suspects. Amrun does point out though that Hiraki's certainty about small was unnatural due to small's obv-scum status; I do tend to agree.
Explain.

1) You suspected the 3 before Smalls became the wagon of the day. I disagree with your suspect list there 100% btw.

2) The theory is you knew Smalls was town more than a town-aligned player should; i.e. scum defending a townie for town cred.

2a) This MAY even be the reason you messed up your scum list because you thought "Aha! The Smalls wagon, easy town cred! My scum suspects are on it!" but you got confused and couldn't get it straight to the point you had to change your views 3 times.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:20 am

Post by Amrun »

I have skimmed others AND I am not basing anything off of meta, so get your panties out of a bunch.
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:41 am

Post by Hiraki »

Amrun wrote:Hiraki's defense of "I'm stupid, I make mistakes" is out of character
for him
. Not sure what to make of it.


Considering the other half of your argument is shit, and you've seen my other games, then you must know how much of a newbie master I am.

Hmmzorz.
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:42 am

Post by [Low Key] »

^^^ veiled threat.
I realized that I was planting seeds, and that it was important to stay low-key, because once you say, 'I've got it' or 'This is it,' then resistance starts to build. But, if you start giving away seeds, people will claim their seeds. Some nurture them and grow them, and that makes a foundational change.
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:44 am

Post by Hiraki »

^^^ uses period.
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 8:38 am

Post by Ameliaslay »

Ranmaru wrote:
Ameliaslay wrote:
unvote
vote: Hiraki, Ranmaru


To answer the questions asked of my votes, by Empking. I initially placed only one vote and randomly to give myself the opportunity to look over the thread. I hadn't yet decided how I wanted to use both votes, although I thought in tandem is a little strange, as second votes might be more useful to place pressure.

To comment on one of the wagons, I was initially a bit confused by the smalls wagon-- to me he reads very newb, but not necessarily newb scum. But as the latter end of the thread progresses he seems very willing-- almost falling over himself to accomodate requests for outside of game activity on other sites.
That over-eager to please mentality strikes me wrong. I also really didn't like the comment in post #198, where he mentions that we should look tomorrow for those attacking him hardest. That being said, I don't know that this sways my balance toward a vote.

As to reasons for my current votes, I haven't really been fond of the tone of Hiraki's posts..
he seems pretty excitable early game
. However, I really haven't liked either Lowkey or Ranmaru's
method of scum-hunting
. Both of them seem to rely on a form of metagaming, that forgive me as I haven't played in a while seems like going beyond the pale. As in this post by Ranmaru:

ranmaru wrote:Actually, I was asking because before he has been set to visible. I told him I would be checking his recent posts to make sure he is following up with the game, but I didn't want to sound like a creeper. He usually jokes around and I'm fine with throwing some sillyness toward him. He knows that I have called him out and multiple others and still do. I am sad at him being invisible.


The only time I remember ever watching who's visible/not-- timestamps, etc. was as scum looking for justifications to point fingers at other players. Lowkey and Ranmaru seem to use similar logic to point fingers at smalls and redcoyote, on what I think of as weak cases, especially given my preference towards only looking in game at in game behavior.


Purple text I agree with. He was never scummy to me. *To Hiraki, I posted that quote to ask for thoughts on Smalls to see if he was doing the same or not.

Your Hiraki vote, is based on how he was excited to play? That is not good, at all. Why does that make you think he is scum?

The quote you bring up is not scum hunting, it's a clarification.

If you don't like meta-ing, why haven't you spoken of Crazy? Here is a quote:

Crazy wrote:VOTE: Ranmaru

Not really a first post I'd expect from you... I thought you'd come out guns blazing, especially with all this NK-WIFOM talk. What's up?

@Amrun - A-ight, I can believe the cell phone thing. UNVOTE: Amrun


He used it for scum hunting.

I also call out activity all the time, so I don't see how that makes me scum. (It's a null tell)

Anyways, my scumhunting isn't heavily based on meta. Currently i'm voting you and Kunkstar, both of which I have never played with. How is this meta-ing?

I never pointed fingers at RC nor Smalls. If I say "Hey RC, I see you there!" It doesn't mean I think he's scum for it, it means I want him to post.

Why did you vote Elli?


I wanted to address this post briefly before moving on...
I think you've mischaracterized my words "excitable" by painting them a suspicion of eagerness to play. You should read more, and I even think I've said-- angrily, reacting strongly, all caps, etc.

As to your comment and subsquent example of Crazy re: meta-ing, if I can perhaps explain my position further: extra game relationships feel fine to me as a form of analysis, if one believes that they can extrapolate behavior based on previous games and roles-- although I feel it's sort of a black science in that people sometimes behave in deliberate ways for deliberate reasons-- thus with more experienced players unconcscious slips are harder to catch-- This meta I'm talking about is extra game activity-- thus outside of the "pristine environment" of game play. and I don't like it.

And to address your final question, I answered that above-- random vote on Ellibereth while I was reading these massive walls of content.

To answer the semi-newb and etc. questions about my post game thread in posts 319, 320, while worthless for the purposes of this game as it was prior to any roles going out etc. I have been on this site for a long time-- though was gone for a while. This was a joke @Jelly who I used to play with quite frequently.

@Ranmaru-- let me come back to your analysis request tonight, when I have time to post in more detail.

Couple of quick comments, questions:
LK: Post 361 questions re: N0 not looking attractive, are you referencing a prior post?
Hiraki: Post 362: You haven't really addressed the logic of why posts ending in a ? are generally bad.. do tell.

Crazy: (post 377) Your analysis of kunkstar seemed a little stating the obvious... "shape up- ship out"... why bother? Content fluff?
Kunkstar: (post 381) Good catch (I think) on Pom not really saying anything other than "scummy" to move her vote from rvs to real. I'd like to hear more about this from Pom.

More later....
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:57 am

Post by [Low Key] »

Hiraki wrote:This is quite absurd. Just because I didn't call it N0, because to be quite sincere it doesn't look attractive, rather than calling it N1, I'm scum?

I just found it odd that he tried to say that he thinks typing N0 is unattractive. That really does sound like reaching for an excuse to me.
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:35 am

Post by Hiraki »

Ameliasay wrote:Hiraki: Post 362: You haven't really addressed the logic of why posts ending in a ? are generally bad.. do tell.
Because most of the time they don't give any information out. And if they do, it's by blind luck.

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