Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[Hoopla]

And... momentum's dropped again. I'm not sure if I like that. I'm starting to get paranoid that Hoopla and jakesh are scumbuddies, and they're stalling a lynch....

Um.

Okay then.

[glowball]

@Hoopla....why did you feel the need to reply to Swank?

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla....why did you feel the need to reply to Swank?

Because it's a silly thing to say. And I thought it should be quoted in all its glory at the top of the new page.

Why did you feel the need to ask me that question?

[swankidelic]

And FoS on DarkFlashlight. It's absurd to suggest that you want to wait for more posts on D1. We at least have some RVS content.

I think you misunderstood. First of all, RVS consisted of like 5 votes, so there really wasn't much there, but regardless, I didn't mean I don't have any scumpicks, I meant I'm not going to call out the three people I think might be scum when there are four that I can't read from yet. All three could technically be in that pile, making choosing rather futile.

So my point is that we should be playing a Mafia game in addition to trying to enact Hoopla's plan. I really don't like the fact that discussion seems to always deteriorate to "post jake post!" after a page or so. People play Mafia games with no starting information, and with lurkers, so the presence of a cooperative strategy and a lurker shouldn't damper normal Mafia play. In fact, since Hoopla's plan isn't algorithmic, we still need nice, juicy D1 content to refer to. If people have weak or even no reads after an RVS bootstrap, we should still be pressuring people to get those reads as if this was a regular Mafia game.

Unwillingness to vote and lynch, though, is crippling; that's why I'm starting to get paranoid about Hoopla.

[glowball]

@Hoopla....why did you feel the need to reply to Swank?

Because it's a silly thing to say. And I thought it should be quoted in all its glory at the top of the new page.

Why did you feel the need to ask me that question?

I just find that scum tend to reply to things about themselves that didn't require any attention, it's like they are worried that someone else might agree so they are on the defensive- not to mention your response was just nothing.

I felt the need to ask you the question because that's part of the game.

[neil1113]

@Hoopla....why did you feel the need to reply to Swank?

Because it's a silly thing to say. And I thought it should be quoted in all its glory at the top of the new page.

Why did you feel the need to ask me that question?

I just find that scum tend to reply to things about themselves that didn't require any attention,

it's like they are worried that someone else might agree so they are on the defensive- not to mention your response was just nothing.

I felt the need to ask you the question because that's part of the game.

To be fair, I think this is an excellent point. I know I do this when I'm scum, without even meaning too.

[Oversoul]

Neil Read:

Okay I'm going to risk looking stupid and probably getting heat from others in this game for "not reading the thread" or whatever, which I'm fine with. Hate me if you want. But I can't quite figure out from the postings between Am and Glow, is the plan a no-go?

Why does it matter if you get heat at this point? If you are legitimate town you wouldn't be scared of such heat. This post shows cautiousness which is somewhat a must for scum.

Glow, you keep bringing up the possibility that Hoopla is scum and using this plan to her advantage? In your mindset, how would this plan benefit the scum team, if you were scum? Because I can only write this off as town minded, considering how it turns the playing field to benefit us, and not them? Unless I've missed something?

It looks like he is trying to fish for some loophole in Hoopla's plan. The post gives me an anti-town vibe especially with the unnecessary last two sentences.

Muffin, I'm with you there. I have very little reads, because I feel like this game is going away from normal Mafia to formulate it's new plan. I would rather this game just get on, either with the plan or without it. But I'm tired of spending the past 7 or 8 (maybe more?) pages between three people discussing the plan...

This post seems nervous. Hoopla at this point already stated the fact that using the plan would be much more beneficial to the town than just trying to play normally. However, Neil wants to ignore this "for the sake of the game". If he was town, he would go with the plan and ignore the fact that it has taken a while to work out all the kinks. Also, this is the first time that he makes any recognition that zMuffin is in the game. It almost seems like at this point he is purposely ignoring zMuffin.

UNVOTE: Neil1113
It was supposed to be a reaction test, but we got really sidetracked, so there never even was a reaction.

To be fair... I didn't even notice you voted for me. Sorry. If you'd like to vote for me again, I'll gladly give you a reaction.

Glowball makes me smile with her style of play, but I think town is wrong to go her direction for today's suspect pool (or in other words, a main wagon on her would be a mistake I believe because I believe her to be genuine town.)

I'm not sure what the case on LittleGreen is, or why people find him/her suspicious? I think I'll have to look over this play slot before I can really comment on it, but I'd like those that are serious about pushing this slot to explain why.

Jakesh I'm pretty sure just dodged the prod, and is lurking. Noted. If you don't have time for the game, why bother playing it in the first place?

Amrun makes me nervous, because she has a "really townie" feel about her. But I'm very tempted to fall into a too townie fallacy with her, so I'm trying not to think about her too much.

Ever since Glow's mention of the possibility of Hoopla being scum and orchestrating this plan, it's got me nervous about the Hoopla slot. I really wish you'd explain to me the benefit to scum this plan would have though Glow, because I just don't see it. And I've tried to imagine it.

Probably the scummiest post of Neils. In my opinion.

The reaction part is negligible. I don't see anything inherently scummy there apart from the fact that he can now "prepare" a reaction. Why bother even saying "vote again, i'll give you a reaction" if you already know it is coming...

The first (real) paragraph and the last paragraph focus on Glowball. He *knows* she isn't scum because she isn't on his team, but is willing to keep her around because she makes other townies nervous and apprehensive. If I was in a scum team I would sacrifice her first, seeing as the scum don't get any power roles to lose and everyone is already suspicious of her playstyle.

Again, though he asks Glowball, what mistake could exist for the scum. He really wants to know and this is in

DIRECT

contradiction to his earlier comment saying he wants the game to go "with or without the plan". Why ask that question if you want the game to move forward? You are only impeding yourself by asking another question. In addition, he needlessly adds to the Hoopla paranoia that Glowball legitimately created out of fear. What better way to avoid a mafia murder plan then to peg its creator as scummy?

His LittleGrey comment doesn't give anything of substance here, but his explanation is completely horrible later on in the thread. Plus, he immediately hones in on the fact that people are calling him, zMuffin, and LittleGrey as scum buddies. What do you have to lose here Neil? Those are just suspicions that won't come into play for a while and you can prove your towniness later.

Nothing overtly scummy about his Jakesh comment. Also, Jake is playing the same way in [redacted]. Neil should know that because he is also playing [redacted]. Seems like a fluff comment to give himself credibility when he inevitability goes after the lurker/inactive player for a mislynch.

"Too townie"? Are you serious, Neil? To me this is just fear mongering and fluff to dispel suspicion from himself or another scumbuddy just like the Hoopla comment.

PS: Oh, neil... You're scum again, aren't you? That sucks. Was hoping for a town game with you.

How'd you know??? What gave it away? Dangitt, I thought I was doing so good too!

Actually no, not this game. So we have a town game together now! However I'm going to be very upset if we lose.

The first part is completely unnecessary. I think this is an allusion to the zMuffinMan/Neil scumteam that he will *definitely* say is sarcastic or such.

Grey, now I see why people think you're scummy. Out of the three people you signaled as scum, you picked the one person that is least likely to address your suspicions based on his play this game? I'd have picked Muffin first, since he's active and would be most likely to address my suspicions, then Quilford, because I know Quilfs meta, and I know Quilf will respond if pressured, and THEN FINALLY, if both have cleared their name for the time being in my book, then I'd address Jake. It seems like this post of yours if a false sense of scum hunting, and you just don't really want to be confronted with your reads, so you picked the one person that is least likely to confront you about them and pursued your lynch target on that person.

How does you knowing Quilf's meta help Grey? At all. At this point I think he is trying to push a LittleGrey bandwagon either because he knows she is scum and would thus gain townie cred for "correctly" reading her. However, his answer as to how she is scummy is flimsy at best and is just a filler to get people off his back. He also indirectly supports zMuffin by saying he is active and will be able to address any suspicions as well as throws Jakesh unto the traintracks of a Jakesh/Little Grey scum team possibility later on in the game.

zMuffinMan:

... Damn. I'll do MuffinMan in another post. I have to go. Again.

I'm just going to say that Muffin's earlier posts sound like a scum trap.

[Amrun]

Oversoul's case on neil is quite good. He got several things I hadn't noticed.

[neil1113]

I'll do quote by quote. Thanks for the case Oversoul, and good try! I especially enjoyed how you twisted my words, and took things out of context like this first quote... let me begin. I'll split this into Spoiler Points, so that it's not one huge post.

Spoiler: Point One

Neil Read:

Okay I'm going to risk looking stupid and probably getting heat from others in this game for "not reading the thread" or whatever, which I'm fine with. Hate me if you want. But I can't quite figure out from the postings between Am and Glow, is the plan a no-go?

Why does it matter if you get heat at this point? If you are legitimate town you wouldn't be scared of such heat. This post shows cautiousness which is somewhat a must for scum.

Amrun's posts here, here, Glowball's post here, and finally Dark Flashlight's post here all caused me to be cautious with my post. It seemed like a response that I could count on would be any of those three saying "Wow, read the thread!" and I didn't want my post to be discredited just because of that like Glowball's posts were almost discredited because Am believed she wasn't reading the thread. I'm not scared of the heat, which is why I said "I'm fine with that. Hate me if you want." Thus, I'm probably going to get heat, but I don't care (or in your words, I'm not afraid.) Which is in almost direct contradiction to your accusation. And with 4 posts, from 3 different people, I think addressing the concern of not reading the thread was valid.

Spoiler: Point Two

Glow, you keep bringing up the possibility that Hoopla is scum and using this plan to her advantage? In your mindset, how would this plan benefit the scum team, if you were scum? Because I can only write this off as town minded, considering how it turns the playing field to benefit us, and not them? Unless I've missed something?

It looks like he is trying to fish for some loophole in Hoopla's plan. The post gives me an anti-town vibe especially with the unnecessary last two sentences.

Why don't you look at it the way it was written? I didn't understand why Glow kept bringing up the chance that Hoopla was scum and using the plan to her advantage. I didn't understand how the plan could've been twisted, so I asked Glow to explain to me how she viewed it, so I can see why she's so suspicious of Hoopla? I don't believe that's Anti-Town at all...

Spoiler: Point Three

Muffin, I'm with you there. I have very little reads, because I feel like this game is going away from normal Mafia to formulate it's new plan. I would rather this game just get on, either with the plan or without it. But I'm tired of spending the past 7 or 8 (maybe more?) pages between three people discussing the plan...

This post seems nervous. Hoopla at this point already stated the fact that using the plan would be much more beneficial to the town than just trying to play normally.

#1. However, Neil wants to ignore this "for the sake of the game".

#2.If he was town, he would go with the plan and ignore the fact that it has taken a while to work out all the kinks.

#3.Also, this is the first time that he makes any recognition that zMuffin is in the game. It almost seems like at this point he is purposely ignoring zMuffin.

I can't defend how you think it seems. However there's two key things I want to address, which is bolded for emphasis.

1. I never said that. I said it's been wasting the day, and I don't want to waste time. Which last time I checked, was a TOWNIE mindset. Not a scum mindset. Which brings me to point #2.

2. I addressed the fact that it was taking up so much time, and wasting our time to actual scum hunt. Which means I was wanting to take note that time was being wasted, and I wanted to use that time to scum hunt instead of talking about a plan that from where Glow was at the time, and where Jake was lurking, looked like it probably wouldn't even happen anyways. So to

directly contradict

you, town would want to address the issue of wasted time, not just "go with the plan and ignore the fact that it's taking a while to work out"... I believe you just slipped and showed your own scummy mindset here. Town wants to scum hunt, not just "ignore" that time is being wasted!

3. This is what bothers me most. You flat out lied here. Because last time I checked (and a REAL ISO check would've showed you this), that this post by me right here

CLEARLY

mentions Muffin, as the

CENTRAL POINT

of the whole post. Did you really overlook this, or are you purposely "missing it" because you know the point would be null and void?

Spoiler: Point Four

UNVOTE: Neil1113
It was supposed to be a reaction test, but we got really sidetracked, so there never even was a reaction.

To be fair... I didn't even notice you voted for me. Sorry. If you'd like to vote for me again, I'll gladly give you a reaction.

Glowball makes me smile with her style of play, but I think town is wrong to go her direction for today's suspect pool (or in other words, a main wagon on her would be a mistake I believe because I believe her to be genuine town.)

I'm not sure what the case on LittleGreen is, or why people find him/her suspicious? I think I'll have to look over this play slot before I can really comment on it, but I'd like those that are serious about pushing this slot to explain why.

Jakesh I'm pretty sure just dodged the prod, and is lurking. Noted. If you don't have time for the game, why bother playing it in the first place?

Amrun makes me nervous, because she has a "really townie" feel about her. But I'm very tempted to fall into a too townie fallacy with her, so I'm trying not to think about her too much.

Ever since Glow's mention of the possibility of Hoopla being scum and orchestrating this plan, it's got me nervous about the Hoopla slot. I really wish you'd explain to me the benefit to scum this plan would have though Glow, because I just don't see it. And I've tried to imagine it.

Probably the scummiest post of Neils. In my opinion.

1.

The reaction part is negligible. I don't see anything inherently scummy there apart from the fact that he can now "prepare" a reaction. Why bother even saying "vote again, i'll give you a reaction" if you already know it is coming...

2.

The first (real) paragraph and the last paragraph focus on Glowball. He *knows* she isn't scum because she isn't on his team, but is willing to keep her around because she makes other townies nervous and apprehensive. If I was in a scum team I would sacrifice her first, seeing as the scum don't get any power roles to lose and everyone is already suspicious of her playstyle.

3.

Again, though he asks Glowball, what mistake could exist for the scum. He really wants to know and this is in

DIRECT

contradiction to his earlier comment saying he wants the game to go "with or without the plan". Why ask that question if you want the game to move forward? You are only impeding yourself by asking another question. In addition, he needlessly adds to the Hoopla paranoia that Glowball legitimately created out of fear. What better way to avoid a mafia murder plan then to peg its creator as scummy?

4.

His LittleGrey comment doesn't give anything of substance here, but his explanation is completely horrible later on in the thread. Plus, he immediately hones in on the fact that people are calling him, zMuffin, and LittleGrey as scum buddies. What do you have to lose here Neil? Those are just suspicions that won't come into play for a while and you can prove your towniness later.

5.

Nothing overtly scummy about his Jakesh comment. Also, Jake is playing the same way in [redacted]. Neil should know that because he is also playing [redacted]. Seems like a fluff comment to give himself credibility when he inevitability goes after the lurker/inactive player for a mislynch.

6.

"Too townie"? Are you serious, Neil? To me this is just fear mongering and fluff to dispel suspicion from himself or another scumbuddy just like the Hoopla comment.

Breaking it down into Numbers again.

1. You really took that statement seriously. I was apologizing for not seeing his vote and not giving him a reaction. I was implying if he had a case, to state it and I'll gladly respond. You really stretched and looked deep into this sentence. I can't tell if you did it out of town, or scum motivation.

2. I can't defend a point that just simply isn't true. I don't "know" if Glowball is town or scum. I'm leaning town due to reads, but if you're implying I know something more, then you're wrong. And I can't defend against that accusation, except by saying I don't know if she's town or scum.

3. First and foremost, this does not contradict my statement. They are two separate points. I asked Glowball why she was so paranoid of Hoopla being scum, and I asked her what flaw could be in the plan because (like others clearly understood here, but you've stretched to try and twist it) if there is a flaw I'd rather us address it here and now, and not just hope the scum doesn't catch it. And how is it needlessly mentioning my thoughts? That's your opinion, and I can't really accurately defend against that. If my thoughts are pointless, then I'm sorry. But I don't see posting a pointless thought as town or scum motivated specifically, and I don't see how you can call it either way. Unless of course you're fabricating a case.

4. I don't even understand this point. You say that the post has no real content, and then go onto to address points that weren't even part of the post you were commenting on?

5. How do you defend against "this is just a fluff comment"? I could say the same thing about this point. This is just a fluff point in which you're making trying to continue your stretching and make me look scummy.

6. I already mentioned the Too Townie fallacy, so I don't understand why you'd bring that up? I simply stated my thoughts on the person I was commenting on. If you don't like it, tough. "I don't see how this could be town or scum motivated specifically, and again I don't see how you could call it either way. Unless of course you're fabricating a case."

Spoiler: Point Five

PS: Oh, neil... You're scum again, aren't you? That sucks. Was hoping for a town game with you.

How'd you know??? What gave it away? Dangitt, I thought I was doing so good too!

Actually no, not this game. So we have a town game together now! However I'm going to be very upset if we lose.

The first part is completely unnecessary. I think this is an allusion to the zMuffinMan/Neil scumteam that he will *definitely* say is sarcastic or such.

Okay. Well you know why you know I'd call it sarcastic? Because it was. And you know it. And I know it. And everyone else who reads it will know it. You know why we all will know it?

BECAUSE IT IS.

Sometimes, things are exactly what they seem. You don't have to stretch or over-analyze everything people post here. That's how mislynches happen, though if you're scum, I assume you wouldn't care and my advice is falling on deaf ears here. Glad you indirectly admitted you knew though.

Now Sarcasm in general I have to ask, how is it one motivated over the other? Like, I'm pretty sure Town uses sarcasm just like Scum do? Actually, Humans use sarcasm in general. Some are more sarcastic then others, because that's who they are. Considering you don't know me, how could you actually make sarcasm a valid scum point against me?

Spoiler: Point Six

Grey, now I see why people think you're scummy. Out of the three people you signaled as scum, you picked the one person that is least likely to address your suspicions based on his play this game? I'd have picked Muffin first, since he's active and would be most likely to address my suspicions, then Quilford, because I know Quilfs meta, and I know Quilf will respond if pressured, and THEN FINALLY, if both have cleared their name for the time being in my book, then I'd address Jake. It seems like this post of yours if a false sense of scum hunting, and you just don't really want to be confronted with your reads, so you picked the one person that is least likely to confront you about them and pursued your lynch target on that person.

1.

How does you knowing Quilf's meta help Grey? At all.

2.

At this point I think he is trying to push a LittleGrey bandwagon either because he knows she is scum and would thus gain townie cred for "correctly" reading her.

3.

However, his answer as to how she is scummy is flimsy at best and is just a filler to get people off his back.

4.

He also indirectly supports zMuffin by saying he is active and will be able to address any suspicions as well as

5.

throws Jakesh unto the traintracks of a Jakesh/Little Grey scum team possibility later on in the game.

Again, numbers.

1. Because I know Quilf, if pushed, will respond out of nature. I'm not sure how you didn't understand this, since I stated it pretty clearly with "then Quilford, because I know Quilfs meta, and

I know Quilf will respond if pressured

".

2. Last time I checked, if I wanted to push a bandwagon, the way to do it would be to place a vote on her. Where's the vote? In fact, a part from that post, I've asked for those who do have cases on her to actually make them because I don't see it.

3. This is your opinion, based off of no facts. It's not a filler, and it's a valid suspicion. It's called, "attacking the Lurker." Look it up.

4. How did I support Muffin in ANY way with the above post? By syaing he's active and will address the suspicions? How does that support Muffin?

5. You have very weird points. I threw Jake under the traintracks because I said he's a lurker, and he shouldn't be pressured when you have other reads that according to his post, look to be on the same exact scummy level? I'm not sure either how I ever implied a Grey/Jake scum team? In fact, the thought never crossed my mind until now. You've stretched a lot with these few points.

[neil1113]

Oversoul's case on neil is quite good. He got several things I hadn't noticed.

No it's not, at all. It's stretching, opinionated (with very little facts), biased, tunneled, and wrong. He had actually only 2 real things that he didn't twist and those things were obvious things that could not be pushed left or right, town or scum, without an actual biased.

[glowball]

K, Um I'm getting weird today so I'll comment on this Oversoul case when I'm a little more clear headed.

Who did he replace again? he is a replacement,right? I'll look don't get up.

[glowball]

NEVERMIND- He isn't a replacement.

I read the case and Oversoul just comes off as active lurking to me and then very opportunist with that case on neill. I mean if you ISO Oversoul he hasn't done much in this game until that case and to be fair I've seen scum just float under the radar.

[Oversoul]

NEVERMIND- He isn't a replacement.

I read the case and Oversoul just comes off as active lurking to me and then very opportunist with that case on neill. I mean if you ISO Oversoul he hasn't done much in this game until that case and to be fair I've seen scum just float under the radar.

I admit I've been very lurky, but I have been reading the thread. This is actually my most active thread (in terms of my own personal work) and Neil's read was actually my first attempt at an iso. Clearly I have some things to work on. I am doing Muffin's right now and I'll post it when I get done (with spoilers).

This game has actually taken me away from my other two. Then again, this is the only one that truly interests me.

[Oversoul]

zMuffinMan Read:

Spoiler: Muffin

My idea for claiming is this: basically just the Hider/HT/det-psych claiming and the hider/det-psych co-ordinating night actions. This narrows scum down to a pool of 9 players and also means PRs can avoid each other (with the exception of the vig-tracker). Lynch one. Hider hides behind another (who he/she announces before nightfall). det-psych and vig-tracker would check/kill whoever they want of the remaining. Scum will target the det-psych first prob, then assuming the hider dies we can go from there. Worst-case scenario is that we go into MyLo D2, but that's happened before and turned out well, so 'sall G. Best case scenario, PRs rock scum and we win, gg.

Scum really cannot counter-claim in this setup, so I don't think counter-claims will be an issue, but if they happen, it can be discussed if/when it happens.

Anyway, I figured I'd lay this idea out here as a basis for discussion, BUT I don't think it should actually happen until much later in the day.

Also a good discussion point is whether or not the vig-tracker should choose to be a vig or a tracker. I personally prefer vig. As long as the vig doesn't take out the det-psych N1 with the hider hiding behind her, I think it's a much better choice than tracker. Although it depends on the D1 lynch, really. If scum is lynched, Tracker might be a better option.

I get a pretty towny vibe from this post and early on in the thread zMuffinMan is already proposing a plan before Hoopla even unveils her master town-win plan. I can't really decipher this post much other than some backwards logic, but that doesn't really telling anything other than a null tell. Although, I am curious that you would have Hider openly hide behind someone. Hider is probably the most important role when it comes to Nightkilling. Having the Hider declare who they hide behind is like giving the scum a 2 for 1 shot.

Also, just because luck was in the town's favor last time doesn't mean it will be in our favor this time. Luck is the *only* thing you can't prepare for in life as it just happens. Dismissing the worst-case scenario like that seems rushed especially given the magnitude of the subject.

Spoiler:

Muffin

This line here is what I really don't like about swank's #48. It

sounds

to me like he thinks whatever plan Hoopla is going to propose will benefit scum in some way, but he's willing to blindly follow it for 'experimental' purposes.

This seems to be the first notion that some believe Hoopla is scum and has orchestrated a grand scheme that looks beneficial to the town, but in some obscure way it puts them all in grave danger. Perhaps in the scum QT (do they have one?) they have created their own plan beginning with this post?

I still don't see how following it for the sake of experimental purposes is a scum-tell either. Hoopla stated that this would benefit the town right from the get go. Why would scum blindly follow a plan that would lead to their demise?

Spoiler: more muffin

Yes, it would neutralise one of town's PRs (in my plan, the det-psych), but here's the thing.

Any

sort of mass-claim is going to 'neutralise' at least one of the PRs. My plan protects what I consider to be the more useful PRs (vig-tracker, HT) in exchange for the sacrifice of the det-psych (baiting the N1 kill) and most probably the hider at some point.

You brought up the issue of counter-claims, but it's a non-issue, because the vig-tracker cannot be counter-claimed (he won't be claiming) and the HT issue I already proposed a solution. But here's the thing: even if the vig-tracker did claim and was counter-claimed D1, the real vig-tracker could choose to be a vig and vig the liar, and we'd have all our other PRs alive tomorrow. There is really no counter-claim issue here. So yes, I'm being dismissive.

Nothing scummy about the first part and it actually presents itself as a town read. However, I am curious as to how the Hider Tracker is more beneficial than the hider itself. Should the Hider even be chosen as the nightkill, scum will most likely lose a night. Also, what point is there to the Hider Tracker if the Hider is publicly claiming who he is going to hide behind? It seems contradictory.

Spoiler: Muffin

I disagree that the hider should flip coin to decide who he hides behind.

I think, if we go ahead with your plan, hider should announce who he hides behind before nightfall. Yes, there's a possibility he hides behind scum and scum kill either HT or det-psych, and we're down 2 PRs, but it also means we'd have confirmed scum going into tomorrow on top of D1 lynch + vig shot + 2 town PRs left with the vig still in hiding. And if the hider doesn't die, then we have a confirmed town + hider + 2 PRs still left + vig shot + d1 lynch.

Also, this circumvents the issue I had with your plan (that all 3 scum could hide in the possible-vig pool and aim the vig tonight) because we'd be building a pool of confirmed townies outside of the possible-vig pool.

You fail to mention the possibility of straight up killing the Hider and his Towny shield which I feel is very scummy. Hider Tracker is absolutely useless in a mass claim scenario (apart from a counter claim in the beginning/being confirmed town) and you are still supporting their somehow inherently better value over the Hider.

Also, what if a confirmed scum hides in the Vig pool? This essentially forces the town to lynch someone they don't have a strong read on as well as make the Vig kill the already confirmed scum, negating both of the benefits for the split pool system.

Spoiler: MUFFIN!

EBWOP: disagree that he should flip a coin to decide whether he hides*

I think he should always hide and announce it (just in case scum do kill the HT first).

Also the HT could technically be counter-claimed, so the hider should only claim after the HT claims and has no been CCed.

Order would be like: everyone claims det-psych or not-det-psych, once that is over, everyone claims HT or not-HT, once that's over Hider claims.

I think this is rather self explanatory. You are still pushing the HT > Hider because of the counter claim issue (which you said was a non issue earlier). However, you do present the order (I believe) for claiming that we will use *after* Hoopla has posted. It seems like an opportunity post to try and pass yourself off as an aid to the plan, but other than that I don't know. Very nullish at this point in the game.

Spoiler: can you guess..

To clarify, if the Hider announces a town target - then the scum just need to target that player to net a townie/hider double kill. We don't get any confirmed innocents from that situation, as the Hider's target doesn't live.

This would be optimal for town.

Hider/townie dying while the vig takes a shot, the det-psych gets a check and the HT is a confirmed townie alive D2? I'll take that.

Absolute worst case scenario, we'd be down to 8 people with 3 scum still alive, 2 confirmed townies, 1 vig who could claim D2, and we'd be in a really, really good position to win the game.

Um what? How does a vig claiming with 3 townies alive still good? O_o I am not following that post.

True,n but I still don't think it's good to announce.

And if the scum kill the HT, then we get a spych/det result AND we know there's scum in that VT pool so we just kill it until it's dead.

Which is why I think if the Hider isn't going to announce it, he should just not hide altogether. Saves complications with losing 2 PRs N1, especially when a det-psych investigation isn't necessarily reliable.

That would just be reckless. Earlier you proposed a situation (MyLo D2) that was just as reliant on luck as choosing a candidate to hide behind, but you were fine with it.

Spoiler: M

I'm being really, really paranoid here, but this should explain why I'm not liking play based solely on odds.

To be honest, I'd much rather play the game as is and consider mass claiming again further down the line.

Even when the game is tipped in your favor? This post also shows that zMuffin is also willing to play the game as is, in a suboptimal fashion for the sake of not going against odds that are tipped in the town's favor. Surely he would know that given he already proposed an optimal situation and defended it in #83.

we have to gamble on some players being town throughout the game

You call it gambling, I call it reading.

Your plan doesn't eliminate gambling in any way, though. There's still a gamble.

If I'm scum, I wouldn't lock us into a suboptimal play.

You call it sub-optimal, but it really isn't. You're nullifying all the town PRs except for the vig (essentially they'd all just be confirmed townies) and pretty much ensuring you get to at least LyLo because you probably wouldn't be vigged or lynched over other candidates. You'd be removing most of the PR luck elements that could potentially destroy scum before D2.

I don't actually believe this is a scum-sided game when played straight. Although it really comes down to town PRs playing well, and in past hard-boiled games I've looked at, town have misplayed or scum has been a bit lucky (e.g. in one game, the last remaining scum took out the tracker on the night he tracked the last remaining scum).

All this said, I am a sucker and I do believe you're town, but I really don't like that you said that you must be town because you wouldn't suggest this if you were scum.

You state in your the post preceding this one that you are against the luck elements of the plan, yet you don't want to follow the plan because it removes the luck elements of the PRs? It seems contradictory and scummy. You try and discredit Hoopla's plan stating that it isn't suboptimal for scum when at first you even proposed your own plan for mass claiming. That also seems contradictory.

In addition, another reference to the possibility of the master creator (Hoopla) being scummy.

Spoiler: M

Actually...

What's your take on how easy the vig could get lynched / pointed out if all the scum hide in the no-claim pool?

This isn't really a concern.

We should go ahead with this, with a 4/5 split. No more questions or hints for scum. And no more discussion about what would or wouldn't be optimal for scum.

This post is completely dismissive and if my hunch is correct, then zMuffin seems to be coaching Neil. Also, zMuffin already said that a 3/6 would be a good idea and yet he chooses the option that he previously had qualms about?

He then goes on to dangle information over our heads saying he will tell us after massclaims are done. At this stage in the game, the plan is not in action and therefore cannot be undone. Why wait until we as a town have already progressed too far to correct the problem unless you know of a fool-proof solution?

Spoiler: M

Just 'coz.

Mostly too scummy to be scum. I don't see scum trying that hard to derail this claim plan; much more likely scum is in the people agreeing with everything without questioning anything. There's probably also scum hiding in the 'helpful' players, and you are the first that comes to mind in that regard. But I'm not scum hunting like I should be due to the circumstances in this game, and the only real reads I have right now are gut reads with little or no substance to back it up.

This post is a reference to Amrun's question whether or not he thinks Glowball is scum, which he replies with a curt 'no' needing to be asked why she isn't scummy. He then replies with the same sort of thought process that Neil used to be wary of Amrun. Coincidence? He turns the tables onto the people who legitimately hope and agree that this plan will be able to bring them a town victory, confirming what we already know. He also mentions Amrun as a possible scum for basically the same reason Neil is wary of Amrun. He also then provides no substance other than gut reads giving him a pass until someone should ask him again. He already has "gut" knowledge that Glowball isn't scum because she isn't a part of his scum group.

Spoiler: Muffin

@Amrun,

Yes... Because I am coaching her. She should stop doing it if she's town.

@neil,

Yeah, which is why I didn't want to go ahead with this until later in the day, but apparently people want to get this over and done with now. So I don't really mind, as long as there's at least day or two before it happens so I can make sure I'm not missing anything. I still have some things that I will discuss only after the mass-claim is over, and people will probably not like it at all.

I think this post is setup for a possible scenario later that would give him town cred by avoiding the lynch on a townie (Glowball). Also, he still holds that ever valuable information and seemingly gloats about it knowing that people will be mad he withheld the information.

Spoiler: Muffin

It's not that scum has an idea of how to beat it. It's that scum has no choice but to agree with it and hope they look town enough to avoid being lynched/NKed while trying to find whatever loopholes they can in the plan.

Which is why I don't want to go ahead with it so quickly, until all aspects have been evaluated to screw scum over as much as possible, and it's why I think scum is in the people blindly agreeing with everything, and maybe one of them is in the people being really 'helpful'.


PS: Oh, neil... You're scum again, aren't you? That sucks. Was hoping for a town game with you.

Again he hints at Amrun being scum because she is acting too helpful. I wouldn't be surprised if both zMuffin and Neil are on her bandwagon at some point later in the game based on their suspicions for her generosity.

He contradicts himself saying that he wants all the wrinkles ironed out, but he refuses to post his specific information until after the mass claims are over? o_o wat?

(already addressed the neil you're scum comment in Neil's read)

I want to see Amrun in the lynch pool.

He has a read on Amrun that must be pretty well established at this point. We still haven't even seen what Jakesh thinks of the plan at this point, but he preemptively seeks to form a wagon on her. All because she is being too helpful.

Furthermore, his next post after that

It's not a slip out of context either. It's not a slip altogether. It's a fairly self-explanatory sentence fragment.

Is what I think a defensive post for his scumbuddy. He doesn't give a reason other than that the sentence is explanatory and therefore should be obvious.

[Oversoul]

I'll get back to your points later, Neil. I'm tired right now.

[glowball]

Oversoul you are scum. You are active lurking scum, who's decision to suddenly become active was based on the opportunity to corner neil since many player have some suspicions of him already.

Here are some things that bothered me...

Yes, it would neutralise one of town's PRs (in my plan, the det-psych), but here's the thing. Any sort of mass-claim is going to 'neutralise' at least one of the PRs. My plan protects what I consider to be the more useful PRs (vig-tracker, HT) in exchange for the sacrifice of the det-psych (baiting the N1 kill) and most probably the hider at some point.

You brought up the issue of counter-claims, but it's a non-issue, because the vig-tracker cannot be counter-claimed (he won't be claiming) and the HT issue I already proposed a solution. But here's the thing: even if the vig-tracker did claim and was counter-claimed D1, the real vig-tracker could choose to be a vig and vig the liar, and we'd have all our other PRs alive tomorrow. There is really no counter-claim issue here. So yes, I'm being dismissive.

Nothing scummy about the first part and it actually presents itself as a town read. However,

I am curious as to how the Hider Tracker is more beneficial than the hider itself

. Should the Hider even be chosen as the nightkill, scum will most likely lose a night.

Also, what point is there to the Hider Tracker if the Hider is publicly claiming who he is going to hide behind?

It seems contradictory.

Isn't the bolded what you accused Neil of? Fishing for tips for scum or scum trying to deduce the best kill and wanting more answers as to how the game will unfold so they can try to beat it. Not to mention, this is just hypocrisy since you bashed Neil for the same thing IMO.

This seems to be the first notion that some believe Hoopla is scum and has orchestrated a grand scheme that looks beneficial to the town, but in some obscure way it puts them all in grave danger.

Perhaps in the scum QT (do they have one?) they have created their own plan beginning with this post?

I just love it when people try to fake town slips- they always sound so ignorant. Now I am not opposed to anyone being attacked and saying straight up "I am town" it's not helpful, but it's just more honest then playing dumb. Oversoul, if you are in 3 games and none of those seem to be newbie games although you only have 67 posts I am going to assume you have some offsite experience and I am also going to assume you've read the role PMs provided by the Mods on the first page of every game- MEANING you KNOW there is a QT and pretending that you don't know is just playing dumb. Town slip=failed.

Even when the game is tipped in your favor? This post also shows that zMuffin is also willing to play the game as is, in a suboptimal fashion for the sake of not going against odds that are tipped in the town's favor. Surely he would know that given he already proposed an optimal situation and defended it in #83.

YOUR favor? Distance/Alignment slip? Odds, tipped all things scum would take heavy knowledge in- maybe this is a stretch but something about Oversoul isn't sitting right with me.

UNVOTE: Hoopla
VOTE: Oversoul

[zMuffinMan]

Hey, Oversoul.

Save me some time, and tell me what your actual read is. I can't be bothered sifting through that to find out.

[MrBump]

This is a redundant Vote Count, but this is mainly to tell you that I will be away being a nerd at an anime/gaemin' convention until late Sunday (GMT, fyi). If jake hasn't posted when I get back, evilpacman18 will replace in immediately. Try not to kill each other while I'm gone =P

Vote Count 1.06

andrew94 - 2

(zMuffinMan, Quilford)

Quilford - 1

(jakesh97)

Glowball - 1

(andrew94)

LittleGrey - 2

(Amrun, swankedelic)

jakesh97 - 1

(LittleGrey)

Oversoul - 1

(glowball)

Not Voting:

neil1113, Hoopla, Oversoul

With twelve alive, it takes

seven

to lynch! The deadline is on the 8th of July at 9:42 GMT!

andrew94 is currently V/LA until the 24th/25th.
MrBump is currently V/LA until the 26th. =P

[Oversoul]

Muffin, you are null-leaning scum.

Glowball, it is funny you say those are slips when they aren't. And I can't accuse Muffin and Neil of doing the same thing? I don't need answers to my questions because I'm not looking for the answers. They are rhetorical questions. I hope your other reads aren't as wrong as this one, Glow.

[Amrun]

Neil, why are you upset because Oversoul's case is opinion-based? That's what the game is about.

Not all of his points are well founded and one or two are incorrect, but he pointed out a couple of good things and in general showed me he is noticing things that a townie would notice. It's fair for a d1 case.

Your reaction to it is scummier than anything in it, though.

Not that you've eclipsed my top scumreads or anything, but when Hoopla said she suspected you so strongly, I took a look back and noticed some of the same things as Oversoul.

[glowball]

Muffin, you are null-leaning scum.

Glowball,

it is funny

you say those are slips when they aren't. And I can't accuse Muffin and Neil of doing the same thing? I don't need answers to my questions because I'm not looking for the answers. They are rhetorical questions. I hope your other reads aren't as wrong as this one, Glow.

You know what is really funny? How I never asked for answer-- don't jump on the defensive unless you intend on actually addressing the points I made instead of trying to discredit them through patronizing mockery.

[neil1113]

Neil, why are you upset because Oversoul's case is opinion-based? That's what the game is about.

I never said Oversoul's points were invalid and stupid. I admitted two of them were good and I didn't really have much to say to them. However, what upsets me about a case that is purely opinionated, is that opinions can argue all day and still not be any closer to the truth. Perception is a funny thing, but if we try and stick to the facts of what I said, and not what you think I said, or how you think I said it - then I think we could come to a quicker conclusion of rather or not my posts are town or scum motivated.

[Amrun]

Glowball, that response is like WHOOSH excessive.

Neil, once again, this is agme of opinion-based arguments.

[glowball]

Whatevs....I also want to make sure if we are going through with this plan we aren't OUTING any power roles. I just want people to come forward and say that they have a power role-- no claiming the exact power role. This way at least scum will be aiming in the dark to find who they want....

[Amrun]

That is the current plan, UNLESS more than 3 people say they have PRs. Then, we are going to have those people claim specific roles, starting with the detective/psych.