Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Amrun]

ChrisB, vote Llamarble then.

Thor, Chris made a huge case on Sotty... It concerns me that you don't know this.

[Chris B]

Today, Llamarble is throwing in huge amounts of IIOA, WIFOM and general nothingness. My post was intended to point this out, and also ask other people's verdicts on it. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

So...by me mocking a sideways attack on Llamarble when you're not even willing to vote him it makes me unreadable? How about you ask again? How about you ask a specific question that doesn't look like an attack post? How about you consider me to be blatantly defending him by shutting you down?

How does not voting someone = not even willing to vote him? As long as you're making stuff up, why not go hog wild?

I tend not to vote early. I don't like wavering on my vote, unless there's a good reason to do so. That said, Amrun raises a good point. Since it was now aeons ago, I'd forgotten my early suspicion of Llamarble, and was concentrating on my Sotty suspicion. It kind of shows how much he's been flying under the radar to me, at the very least.

I'll switch my vote, but Sotty remains my default.

Unvote, Vote: Llamarble

[Thor665]

Thor, Chris made a huge case on Sotty... It concerns me that you don't know this.

I track aggressiveness and pressure more than length of case. I think the former is far more telling of intent than the latter.
I think this shows with his unvote - I don't feel he's about the Sotty wagon at all. You can disagree...but you'll be wrong
Also - why does it 'concern' you? You're allowed to go somewhere with that, rather than leaving it nebulous.

How does not voting someone = not even willing to vote him? As long as you're making stuff up, why not go hog wild?

Because no one needs to hear about how ginormous my sexual prowess are again.
Votes matter. Pressure matters. Sideways attack looking for support from others matter, but not in the same way. Why does my assessment of your Marble issues bother you so? I don't think I'm making anything up, I'm offering my opinion of your actions - why do you feel it's made up?

[Chris B]

Because you didn't back it up, nor was there anything to back it up. Feel free to point out that I didn't vote for Llamarble since day one, but at least back it up if you're saying that I'm not willing to vote marble, when at that point, I hadn't voted for anyone.

[Thor665]

Seriously? I am "making it up" when you just agreed that there was factual evidence in support of my call?
Here's the facts - you attacked Marble, whined about me when I called you on attacking Marble, and then voted Sotty. Then you changed votes because Amrun pointed out you were allowed to vote Marble.
Yeah.

[Amrun]

He did vote Sotty, though that quick switch was a bit weird... I didn't actually expect him to do it, though I am glad of the wagon support.

And it concerns me because it doesn't bode well if you don't take note of the basic pushes and cases in the game, because only scum wouldn't be aware of them - and asking for case repeats is just asking fpr distracting noise.

If you're not concerned with cases, Thor, why did you ask Chris to restate his Sotty case?

[Chris B]

What I love? I was on the Sotty wagon yesterday before Thor was. And again, he hasn't explained why 'not voting' = 'not willing to vote'. I was willing to vote (as shown by the fact that this is the second time in the game that I've had my vote on Llamarble).

Amrun, simply put, you made a good point. I lost out on DGB's wagon when I didn't vote her when I was suspicious, because I talked myself out of being suspicious. At the time Thor asked, my main suspect was Sotty, as it had been the day before. As I explained earlier, I don't like throwing my vote out early. I prefer trying to work out where the best place is for my vote, unless there's a wagon I agree with. At that point, it was Sotty. You made a good point on Llamarble, and when I looked back to see what the crap Thor was on about with 'not willing to vote', I was reminded that I suspected Llamarble early on. And his going under the radar, along with todays weirdness, was a good reason for me to vote.

But Thor, let me spell this out. If a wagon forms on Sotty, I'm there. I tried to get one going yesterday, and it didn't get anywhere.

[Amrun]

Not complaining. I want Llamarble lynched.

[Thor665]

But Thor, let me spell this out. If a wagon forms on Sotty, I'm there. I tried to get one going yesterday, and it didn't get anywhere.

Your vote and my vote would make the Sotty wagon one of the strongest contenders today thus far.

And it concerns me because it doesn't bode well if you don't take note of the basic pushes and cases in the game, because only scum wouldn't be aware of them

Psssh, no.
And shouldn't you be voting me if you believe that? You're being pedantic and silly.

and asking for case repeats is just asking fpr distracting noise.

Nope here as well.

If you're not concerned with cases, Thor, why did you ask Chris to restate his Sotty case?

Because I'm trying to drum up support for a Sotty wagon, and the more people talking Sotty and explaining how she's scum who should die the better.

[Chris B]

Obliqueness is often the clearest way.

[Chris B]

However, Amrun - what are your thoughts on Sotty? I apologise, but I'm at work, so going back through posts is a little awkward at the moment. Would you be up for a Sotty wagon today in return for a Llamarble one tomorrow if we're wrong?

[Sotty7]

This is the first time I address Ipie in my big info dump - this is what I say about him, and this never once changes. Sotty, you are attempting to twist this into a contradiction that just is not there.

Yeah I saw that. my point I'm trying to make is why is Pie town to you with bad reads? Why isn't he scum trying to push mislynches?

Your use of “conformation bias” when talking with him is so out of place. It is a phrase I associate with town, because the whole point of being scum is not to display conformation bias. I think you were trying to subdue him by calling him town (not very strongly) while discrediting his reads until you could kill him.

I mean unless you can show your working as to why Pie was town independent of his reads, cause I would really like to see that.

mith by POE is acceptable. Does that mean you think the team is Llamarble+mith?

About you, I think my thought process on you has been fairly transparent - not entirely, but it is not as obscure as you are making it out to be. In the early game, I found you to be pretty townish because I totally followed, understood, and agreed with your attacks on Llamarble, and this continues to be the biggest point in your favor. However, after I replaced in, you made some sloppy attacks that I thought were closing to mudslinging than scumhunting - for example, you suggesting that I replaced into Klazam's slot because I am a better scum player than Klazam, which I quickly broke down as a bad argument, and also you telling me if I didn't want DH or Sevei lynched, I should "do something about it" when I was clearly doing all I could, but also your continual attacks on Thor for coasting when I don't think he was. You don't seem very committed to your reads, either, which concerns me. Yesterday, I was willing to lynch you as a compromise simply because the other top candidates were DH and Sevei, both of whom I have very strong town reads, and if you were to die and flip town, it would aid me in getting Llamarble lynched at the very least. How is that hard to understand? Three townreads get strung up... you choose the townread that is the weakest to vote for.

If it was transparent why would I be asking?

Let me break it down to show you exactly what I mean.

Early Amrun puts me as her second town read under only obvtown Chris B. I can almost understand you think the fact your replaced in is a poor attack. Personally I still think it has a little merit, but it's a generally unfair point against you that you can't really defend and I'm not going to push it. It's a lot of weak meta, but there you go.

What I didn't like was your reaction to me as I poked you. Suddenly I was pushing vague suspicion and that was scummy. The reality was Klazam attacked Socio in what looked an awful lot like a chainsaw for DGB to me. The minute he starts to get real pressure he bails and out of everyone on your team, you slide in. I know your a very component scum player so I voice my concerns. Your posting makes it sounds like this weak meta is my only reasoning for suspecting you when we both know that wasn't true.

The fact was, if anyone was pushing vague suspicion, it was you.

Spoiler: back and forth with me

Sotty, I'd like to see actual thoughts on all that I've said instead of pushing a vague suspicion on me that doesn't even make sense. You're only town by virtue of me suspecting Llamarble, to be honest.

Oh hohoho... There it is.

I said I would get to it and I will. Chill. Plus did you miss the part of the day where I have been saying Klazam is a good lynch today? Just because you come in all guns blazing doesn't mean I'm going to clear you. I'm currently working on one other game before coming back here. Expect it in the next hour or so.

I didn't mean GET IT UP RIGHT NOW RAWRRRRRRRRR. Just saying, eventually, I would like a response from you specifically.

Okay Amrun, I initially didn't like your mith vote when I first saw it. But reading you post I realize it isn't so terrible. You voice a lot of the problems I had with mith on day one up until I re-read his exchange with DH, we just came to different conclusions.

Is your read of DH tied in completely with your mith read? Same question about your Fluff read. What do you think of DH's complete lack of presence in this game? What do you think of Fluff defending DGB on day one?

After reading your posts 562 looks really out of place. You have me reasonably high on your list and yet imply that I'm only townish because of my interactions with marble. I don't like that back tracking much.

Other than that I liked your info dump almost enough to down grade you back behind Llamafluff.

My read of DH is tied in with my read of marble. If mith were to die and flip town, I'd have some re-evaluating to do.

My read on Fluff is dependent on nothing. He's town. I see his defense of DGB as a towntell more than anything. Fluffscum would bus there, in my opinion.

My post 562 is misleading. I didn't mean you are scum indepedent of the marble interaction.

However, the reason I have the degree of townread I have on you is due to my suspicion of Marblescum. Were he to flip town, you'd lose some town points but not necessarily gain any scumpoints. I would re-evaluate you and other's cases on you if that were to transpire.

After all this I'm town to you until suddenly I'm a compromise lynch.

Meaning you want me to make a towncase on Sotty? I've said all I'm going to say on that matter barring another flip.

And yes, sotty, llama is one of my top townreads. I posted a list a couple of pages ago.

I have decided I'm willing to compromise on a Sotty lynch, though it's still not optimal.

Llamarble or mith is who should be swinging for real.

Post 659 was made on Sat and post 730 on the Monday. I don't go after Thor for coasting until next week so that's not a good reason for why you were willing to switch to one of your top town reads. Also if that was such a scummy thing for me to have done, why didn't you call me on it?

Also LOL for you trying to claim I wasn't committed to my reads? Are you serious? DemonHybrid ring any bells?

If I missed anything, let me know.

Yup you did. I want your personal experience playing with Fluffscum.

[Sotty7]

Eh... not impressed with Sotty's case. Agree that 1051 is a little weird, but otherwise Amrun's stance on Sevei/singer (and InflatablePie) seems clear, and I can't help feeling that her mentions of me in particular have an agenda ("Why did you drop your mith case?"; "Would you lynch mith today?"; "Amrun's best posting comes with her rationale for her mith vote..."; "I have no real understanding why she dropped her mith vote/case..."), perhaps feeling out the possibility of a mislynch on me (or perhaps subtly pushing Amrun away from Llamarble?).

What exactly could be my agenda when I have called you town lately? Maybe I am just trying to hold Amrun accountable for her reads.

Chris and Thor are still town. Amrun is fanning the flames. Color me amused.

[Amrun]

Sotty, I gave a whole nice little paragraph explaining my iPie townread, but here is a recap: his early wagon built too quick and he had an excessivily town reaction to it, and overall he was very committed to his reads in a way that read as genuine.

Your weak meta crap has merit, now? Funny, because after I pointed out its flaws, you said something to the effect of, "Yeah, you're right. I am really tired and should stop posting," thereby distancing yourself from your own admittedly bad argument. If I was going to choose a scum role due to my own strong scum meta (which is arguable to begin with; also my scum record is no longer perfect), it only follows that I would have done it from the start - and my original game is done and I was town.

And you ignored the context of post 730. Two of my strongest townreads were the opposing wagons, but YOUR wagon had marginal support and your townread wasn't as strong by far - and as I said, I was hoping to use your townflip as a point in my Llamarble case, if the game continued. Obviously, I had people I would rather wagon, but those obviously were not going to happen that day. This point in your "case" is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Fair enough that you were comitted to DH, but what happened to Llamarble in your eyes? The reason I had you so far down my town list early on was due to your Llamarble case, but as the game progresses and you continue to not support Llamarble wagons, the probability of a Llamarble+Sotty team raises. At this point, I find Llamarble+mith likelier, but Sotty+Llamarble is no longer out of the question.

And I did answer about Fluffscum. You missed it.

[Amrun]

Also, Thor: sorry if I mislead you, but my recent reads list is correct in regards to my thoughts of your relative scumminess. I just really don't want to waste my life by re-reading a Chris B recap wall. I read it the first time.

[Sotty7]

Is this the paragraph you mean RE: Pie?

p-edit: Actually, Llamarble being an opposing wagon to DGB is a point against him, imho. DGB's buddies had a huge incentive to push Llamarble over DGB, but in fact, Llamarble's biggest opposition also suspected DGB and helped push that wagon along. I think the two biggest wagons on d1 were on scum (with the exception of the Ipie wagon, which grew much more quickly than either of those, which should tell you something).

Don't you think the DGB wagon was faster than the Pie wagon? Was this your only reasoning for Pie town, because it is really weak.

If this is not what your talking about, I'm missing it. Help me out and point me in the right direction.

Your weak meta crap has merit, now? Funny, because after I pointed out its flaws, you said something to the effect of, "Yeah, you're right. I am really tired and should stop posting," thereby distancing yourself from your own admittedly bad argument. If I was going to choose a scum role due to my own strong scum meta (which is arguable to begin with; also my scum record is no longer perfect), it only follows that I would have done it from the start - and my original game is done and I was town.

I'm not going to argue this point with you. Why? Because it is all meta and WIFOM that can be spun either way. I have my gut feeling and that's that, it's not even a part of my case on you. What is a part is how prickly you became over my poking of you. Suddenly I was scummy. considering you apparently had me as your number two town read at this point, I find your reaction pretty scummy.

I do noticed how you totally side stepped that whole point of my argument to instead, put yourself in a favourable looking position to challenge me on a point I'm not even using against you.

And you ignored the context of post 730. Two of my strongest townreads were the opposing wagons, but YOUR wagon had marginal support and your townread wasn't as strong by far - and as I said, I was hoping to use your townflip as a point in my Llamarble case, if the game continued. Obviously, I had people I would rather wagon, but those obviously were not going to happen that day. This point in your "case" is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

I want you to explain how I fell from number two town read to a lynch you were willing to consider. Posts 577, 659 and 730 are your back to back mentions of me in your ISO. Are you really saying I fell so far after my points on Klazam and how he effectively bailed on the game? I'm having a hard time buying it.

I have never played with Fluffscum but I have skimmed several Fluffscum games and read completely and organically farside's Dating Game mafia just because I was interested in the set up and followed it. Fluff was scum and I read that correctly before he got outted by the cop (though I wasn't in the game so I didn't post that, obviously).

Okay I don't know I missed this. Sorry about that.

So you read one game and skimmed others and yet you are willing to make the following assessments on his play as scum. I'm not buying it.

My read on Fluff is dependent on nothing. He's town. I see his defense of DGB as a towntell more than anything. Fluffscum would bus there, in my opinion.

If scumFluff were going for a threat kill, it would havemore likely been Equinox, who is a near universal town read and a bit more of a mover and a shaker.

I'm not sure how not even having played one game with FluffScum can make you so confident in how he plays the role. Could you link or name the games you did skim and when you looked at them? You seem a lot more certain about the inner workings of Fluff than you should be.

[Amrun]

No, that was not it. I responded about ipie in my response to your wall where you voted me. I also disagree that the DGB wagon was faster.

The middle-to-upper echelons of my replace-in reads list were fluid, and you only warranted such a high spot on it is due to Llamarble - and my read on mith was much stronger at that point. Several things happened in between the posting of that list and when you became a compromise - my townread on you decreased as I experienced your play organically, and my townread on others increased. But you attack this whole thing as if I was trying to get you lynched because I thought you were scum. This was never, and still is not, the case. I truly believe that you are intelligent enough to understand the concept of compromise lynches, so this is silly.

As for Fluff, 570 refers to several things: me witnessing Fluff bus as scum previously, and Fluff's discussions of White Flag theory in this thread.

The other post did not refer to Fluff's scumplay at all. Someone was suggesting that iPie was a threatkill from Fluff. I was saying that that was a silly theory because iPie wasn't even the biggest threat to Fluff - Equinox is.

I skimmed his games during Cold War, I skimmed some more during reading along with dating game, and a couple of more during [redacted], with varying degrees of attention. In every game I have played/read along with so far, I have read Fluff correctly, for whatever reason, so thathelps my degree of confidence in my read here.

[Amrun]

That being said - I bet scumFluff would be capable of tricking me. I still choose to trust my reads here.

[TheButtonmen]

D3VC4:

LlamaFluff (2): DH, mith
Llamamarble (2): Amrun, ChrisB
Amrun (2): Llamarble, Sotty
Sotty (1): Thor
mith (1): Llamafluff

Not Voting (1): Equinox,,

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

[DemonHybrid]

Chris,

update

us on why you think Sotty is scum.

That was sort of the key word.

[LlamaFluff]

I still am pretty convinced that mith is scum here.

This has been gone over more than one time, but early game there is a whole lot of passive comments at DGB that really dont take solid stances. Mith thinks DGB sorta reminds him of a past scum game, mith thinks SP case on her is ok at parts, mith now thinks DGB is scum when the wagon takes off. On the other side DGB thinks mith is lurking, DGB thinks mith isnt doing much... just keeps reading like scum-scum. DGB being as opinionated as she is never takes a hardline stance on mith throughout the game despite a small exchance they had, mith floats the DGB read around until late in the day when the lynch is happening.

Since then mith really just isnt doing much. At all. Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day. More then thats its almost all regurgitated every five posts or so. He continues to call me scum with DH, and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too. One of my big things though is the way he is abandoning the DH thing right now

He is saying that because I have been defending DH the entire game, that im scum. I have had a town read on him since WAY early on in the game, and have been saying that he is town AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN. But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him. I say he is town, and because of it these others are probably town for interaction reasons and these people are scum but again, blown off and ignored by mith. When it looks like DH is going to get lynched anyway, you better be DAMN sure that if he flips town im going to shove my reads right in your face all indignant as such. This is pure BS though what he is pushing though that I was trying to line up lynches because WHAT ELSE DO I DO? You never really respond to what I am saying, just post "herp derp he could be scum with you" and continue to vote him. It takes a fakehammer for you to realize and then you say "OH WELL FLUFF IS SCUM ANYWAY".

If that is true why do you vote DH over me? You dont vote him over me, unless you are scum. Which you are. Who was trying to chain lynch DH then me, and then the DH lynch went away, so you got stranded.

[mith]

"This has been gone over more than one time, but early game there is a whole lot of passive comments at DGB that really dont take solid stances." - Indeed, we've been over this (435, 585).

"Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day." - ?? Quite a few of my day 2 posts were about DH... because he was my top suspect, I wanted him lynched, and we were going back and forth arguing. Almost everything? That's blatantly false.

"...and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too." - Er, no... pretty much the opposite. I didn't (and don't) think Amrun is scum unless with DH, and didn't (and don't) have any interest in lynching her.

"He is saying that because I have been defending DH the entire game, that im scum." - Huh? Where have I said that?

"But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him." - What were you saying about him?! You haven't actually said much of anything about DH other than constantly repeating that he's town. (258, more likely town, not a strong read, no why; 444, he's town because his attacking you day one is "a bit of a town tell"... not something I can really do much with, having no meta on anyone; and then a whole lot of repeating that he's town and not in your lynch pool until very late in the day, 866, some pairing analysis which I did directly question you about.)

To summarize my case (or that part of it, anyway): LlamaFluff has been very vocal about DH-town throughout, but as far as actually

defending

him, not so much (I didn't even realize how little reasoning he had given for his read on DH until ISOing him just now)... yet when he goes to L-2, he's weary of defending him and "he may not be the worst possible lynch". I just don't see any possible town motivation for that post. We weren't near deadline, we weren't in compromise mode... and until a few posts prior, DemonHybrid's wagon was one of four, and only leading by a single vote. Town in that position redouble their efforts to push things away from their town reads - they don't roll over and suggest that it won't be the worst thing in the world.

[DemonHybrid]

To summarize my case (or that part of it, anyway): LlamaFluff has been very vocal about DH-town throughout, but as far as actually defending him, not so much (I didn't even realize how little reasoning he had given for his read on DH until ISOing him just now)... yet when he goes to L-2, he's weary of defending him and "he may not be the worst possible lynch". I just don't see any possible town motivation for that post. We weren't near deadline, we weren't in compromise mode... and until a few posts prior, DemonHybrid's wagon was one of four, and only leading by a single vote. Town in that position redouble their efforts to push things away from their town reads - they don't roll over and suggest that it won't be the worst thing in the world.

:goodposting:

Has Llama even said ANYTHING about my vote on him?

[Equinox]

Gah. Apologies, everybody. I've been sidelining this game, and I meant to catch up late yesterday and earlier today, but I got distracted by shiny objects. I'm definitely getting on this now, but given the size of your cases, I probably won't be able to have anything substantial of my own until I've cross-referenced your cases and compared them to things.

A fellow pony ran through the events of Day 1 and listed his reads of people's reactions to the DrippingGoofball wagon, so you'll definitely hear from that front tonight as soon as I figure out how to not break the "Don't paste from QuickTopics" rule.

[LlamaFluff]

"Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day." - ?? Quite a few of my day 2 posts were about DH... because he was my top suspect, I wanted him lynched, and we were going back and forth arguing. Almost everything? That's blatantly false.

Fine, almost everything that was related to strong reads was about DH. You go off on theory a few times, but most other things do loop back to the central point of DH being scum.

"...and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too." - Er, no... pretty much the opposite. I didn't (and don't) think Amrun is scum unless with DH, and didn't (and don't) have any interest in lynching her.

Enough of your posts were structured such that she was the second pick to DH it seemed.

"But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him." - What were you saying about him?! You haven't actually said much of anything about DH other than constantly repeating that he's town. (258, more likely town, not a strong read, no why; 444, he's town because his attacking you day one is "a bit of a town tell"... not something I can really do much with, having no meta on anyone; and then a whole lot of repeating that he's town and not in your lynch pool until very late in the day, 866, some pairing analysis which I did directly question you about.)

Partially due to not being able to word my read well, but also due to a feeling that the only thing I could word (pairings) would get the response it did from you of "well you can be with him" which lets you ignore my points for him being town.

To summarize my case (or that part of it, anyway): LlamaFluff has been very vocal about DH-town throughout, but as far as actually

defending

him, not so much (I didn't even realize how little reasoning he had given for his read on DH until ISOing him just now)... yet when he goes to L-2, he's weary of defending him and "he may not be the worst possible lynch". I just don't see any possible town motivation for that post. We weren't near deadline, we weren't in compromise mode... and until a few posts prior, DemonHybrid's wagon was one of four, and only leading by a single vote. Town in that position redouble their efforts to push things away from their town reads - they don't roll over and suggest that it won't be the worst thing in the world.

My town reads usually are very good, and I normally get stuck in situations like this where I cant explain them all that well, yet end up chasing everyone off the wagon of town. If DH feels town, im still going to just say it again and again while trying to get other reads off it. Still, you really refuse to look at this from my standpoint... people were arguing Amrun-scum and DH-scum, mostly with eachother and not anyone else. For the most part defending these wagons wasnt going so well either, yet the attacks came in such a way that if one got lynched, the other would get written as probably town. At the stage of the game nowhere near a lylo situation, yes I am fine with one mislynch to take another off the table. My read sure looks right, and if not being able to explain it well enough for you oh well. And trying to use one death to get another player cleared, I have zero problems with that if it ends up shutting down scum options. Not going to apologize for either of those at all, and I would do it again in an instant.

If I get lynched, mith tommorrow, in the first four posts. Period.

@DH - You normally start these conversations so go for it. Or move your vote somewhere useful.