Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Amrun]

Not only are marble's parameters dumb, he doesn't even follow them properly. He deflated other pairings to make mine highest. Yawn. Too easy.

[Equinox]

Darn it unintentionally clicked submit in the middle of writing.

...implying that the post above this one was unfinished. Sooooo what were you in the middle of saying when you got rudely interrupted by the Submit button?

Llamarble case interests me greatly. I'm going to laze about a bit first, though.

[Llamarble]

I was in the middle of writing down what I thought of Fluff's reasoning for Amrun-town.
In addition to what I had finished so far Fluff mentioned Amrun's setup confusion and defense of him.
Setup confusion is minor bayesian townpoints, but I did not the manner of her Fluffdefense town.
After I misclicked submit I got distracted.
Then Sotty asked what Fluff found Amrun town for right after I was discussing those reasons.

I'm not sure what happened with removing Thor-Fluff.
What my notes say is:
G.remove_edge("Sotty7", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
G.remove_edge("Thor", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
G.remove_edge("Equinox", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
Except Thor wasn't actually on that wagon. I think it may have been this post:

I could be fine with a Fluff lynch if that means we get a Sotty lynch next. Chain the lynches, chain them I say!

I was also looking at Equinox's list of ruled out pairings when I made mine.
Anyway, I don't think Thor-Fluff is the scumteam regardless.
And my vote isn't based on the network I drew.
As scum I'd try hard to ensure my pair missing the list of plausible ones, so I'm using this as a guide for things to look into as opposed to a device worthy of forming a lynchplan based on.

I'll collect my Amrun case together when I'm less tired.

[Chris B]

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

[TheButtonmen]

D3VC3:

LlamaFluff (2): DH, mith
Llamamarble (1): Amrun
Sotty (1): Thor
Amrun (1): Llamarble
mith (1): Llamafluff

Not Voting (3): ChrisB, Equinox, Sotty,

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

[Thor665]

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

You get smarter when you vote, maybe if you voted or expressed strong suspicion you'd suddenly understand it?

[Amrun]

Llamarble, so let me get this straight.

You don't want to vote based on your graph because as scum you'd work to rule out pairings.

Yet I have the most pairings on your graph and you are voting for me.

If you are not voting based on most pairings OR on least pairings, what is the point of the graph at all?

[Llamarble]

I'm using this as a guide for things to look into

As in I am not going to place 100% faith in it since I may have ruled out the actual scumpair at some point.
I'm experimenting with new scumhunting science but puzzling through and figuring out what makes the game make most sense remains my primary weapon.

[Amrun]

I haven't seen you demonstrate any such reasoning.

[Sotty7]

Not really feeling the early marble hate today. It seems centered around his little chart and from what I can see he isn't trying to force anyone into following what the chart says, clear explanations of the pairs and lack there of would be nice but I don't think he is scummy for posting it up. Post 1100 is awful because of this. Marble also defended me yesterday when he could have easily piled on and called me scum. Maybe I'm nuts, but I am starting to lean slightly more town for now.

This post by mith was one of the first things that bothered me, but I couldn't put my finger on it until later.

First, it was just his lack of vote and his reasoning for it which I didn't like. Lack of vote is more often a scumtell than not -- however, I'm not dumb enough to think that this is anything but a nulltell in the hands of mith.

But it did make me pay attention to his posts more closely.

Reading back, I am finding the bold strange. You quoted mith's post 181 where he addresses DH about the whole Equi back and forth. What exactly do you mean about mith's lack of vote and his reasoning for it? At the time of this post mith was voting for DH and this was just a response to him.

[Amrun]

The chart isn't the reason I suspect llamarble.

The "lack of vote" thing referred to the long expanse of d1 that lacked a vote from mith. At first, this was the only thing that bothered me about him as I was following along, but it didn't count for much because I thought mith would avoid such an obvious scumtell as scum - but then when his tunnneling emerged, I found that scummy on its own.

[Sotty7]

Okay then, I'm confused. Here is the whole post for reference:

DemonHybrid: Fair enough if you would have spoken up on suspecting Equinox, but wouldn't you also speak up (before now, when you have been asked about her directly) if you found her townish? That whole exchange with LlamaFluff reads like you were trying to defend Equinox without actually coming out and committing to a town read (in case things went south?).

First in 51, we have you responding to LlamaFluff's vote by questioning his stance on meta; the follow-up in 55 then asks (paraphrasing) "Well if you think it's Equinox-IP, why aren't you picking on IP??".

So that's part of what was odd about that exchange. Then you apparently take offense when he implies you agree with him about Equinox - again without actually saying "No, I think she's town", followed by some "I FOSed you and you didn't respond" sulking. Meh.

(I'm not sure which point you're talking about with "I believe I have the right to agree with a point, even though I don't have a specific read on a person." - if you're talking about your post 45 point 2, I'm still lost, because you're saying you have the right to agree to a point which was never made. If you're talking about some other point, clarify.)

DrippingGoofball: I'm loving a DemonHybrid/Llamarble/Equinox group right now; they were my top three independently, but DH/Equinox makes a lot of sense given the above, and I quite like Llamarble/Equinox for the sheeping, plus the end of 179: "If I were Sottytown and didn't like the parroting, I'd have liked Equinox for wavelengthsharing on disliking the Mith wagon parroting.".

This post by mith was one of the first things that bothered me, but I couldn't put my finger on it until later. First, it was just his lack of vote and his reasoning for it which I didn't like. Lack of vote is more often a scumtell than not -- however, I'm not dumb enough to think that this is anything but a nulltell in the hands of mith. But it did make me pay attention to his posts more closely.

This dancing around Equinox is, and continues to be, mith's only point against DH that has any validity whatsoever (except being off the DGB wagon, which occurred later).

mith's case on DH then shifts to attacking him for attacking Llama for attacking one out of a possible scumpair (in which the facts on both sides were all sorts of screwy).

This is quite ironic to me, and something I pointed out to Klazam, which led him to ask mith some questions about the Equinox/DH relationship according to mith.

In order for DH to be scum according to mith, it seems to me, Equinox would HAVE to be scum. Mith attacks DH for "lying" about his read on Equinox, but in this scenario, DHscum would ONLY have motivation to lie about Equinoxscum if they were scumbuddies.

So if this is the suspicious behavior mith "keyed in on," and he puts Equinox in his supposed scumteam speculation and suspects Equinox, why wouldn't he attack Equinox? In the very LEAST, why would he not take this as an impetus to look more closely at Equinox's play as a way to inform his DH read?

The whole attack on DH by mith reads to me as scum-motivated. It doesn't look to me like mith made the attack with the intent of determining alignment, and the way his read progressed seems fabricated to me. He was going for a mislynch, and was always going for a mislynch; I think a townie in this situation would have done more to look at the DH-Equinox link, but scummith would not have because he wanted to keep Equinox open as a possible mislynch later on.

[snip]
Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

(LlamaFluff drops down The List™ to "solidly town" status. Still not sure what was bothering the gut, but it's gone now.)

This is a humongous pile of fencesitting which is pretty predictably followed by a turnaround. When mith posted this, the DGB wagon didn't have much weight. Here, he treated it very lightly, but did you notice his attempt to discredit Socio's case? I did. "Oh, case is bad, moving on, nothing to see here folks." But he doesn't get into the specifics of it because most of the case actually DOES have substance - and mith himself changed his mind on this later.

This is followed by even more fencesitting and another completely fabricated read progression. Highlights from progressing posts:

"Sticking with DemonHybrid for now, but I'm starting to talk myself into DGB-scum."

One last attempt to discredit socio, and then, "Sotty and Thor, point taken about the DH vote not going anywhere." (puts DGB at L-1, wagon is obviously a go by then)

With DGB at L-1: "DGB seems to be grasping for a lifeline with the Thor stuff."

Then, he gives a "summary" of why he thinks DGB is scum.

It REEKS of a late bus. Absolutely reeks.

And then this:

Ooh, great catch. Anyone know whether scum have day talk or not? I don't see anything in the OP about day talk, so I'm inclined to switch to Chris B ASAP if they do (and likewise put him solidly in the town camp if not).

So fake. This supposed "slip" from OOOOOOOBVTOWN ChrisB is just silly. His not knowing about this is just more indication of that.

VOTE: mith

More on other players to come.

Your first two sentences seem to be directly referring to the post you quoted. But if what you are saying is true, you simply quoted 181 because it gave you the willies? Was there any other reasoning? I could be reading this wrong, but it's bugging me.

And yes, I am aware that you don't suspect Marble simply for the chart, your reasoning pretty much follows mine from day one. But I am saying that the chart isn't scummy.

[Sotty7]

My read on Fluff is dependent on nothing. He's town. I see his defense of DGB as a towntell more than anything. Fluffscum would bus there, in my opinion.

What's your personal experience with Fluffscum?

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias.

Hey, mudslinging!

How's THAT for confirmation bias?

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

What about Pie's poor reads made you think he was suffering from confirmation bias rather than scum pushing a bad line of thought? Confirmation bias suggests that you strongly believe Pie to be town at this point in the game. I don't really see you following though with that train of thought by declaring him town at any point. This post feels like you know more about his alignment than you should and that you are trying to appeal to his better nature while at the same time discrediting his reads.

Can you explain why your read of me went from town to an acceptable compromise lynch? I'm talking about post 730, which I believe was before I agreed to my lynch. (941)

Why did you drop your mith case? If it is a particular answer from him can you point me to the post number? Would you lynch mith today? Why?

What is your current read of Thor? Of Equi?

Talk me though the following progression:

I am now willing to vote singer. I could have been wrong about Sevei.

I want to hammer but I suppose I'll be good and wait for singer's (probable) final post(s).

Singer is probablly town; I was right about Sevei.

These posts are back to back in your ISO

I basically disagree with every single point of mith's "case" against Fluff.

What points are the worst and why?

Amrun's best posting comes with her rationale for her mith vote in her first serious post of the game. Even with my sticking point I question her on, the rest of the reasoning feels very solid to me. However, after that I'm seeing extremely little that I like from her posting. Her initial compromise on me comes seemingly from nowhere and the flux surronding some of her other reads are troubling (Thor/Equi/Pie/mith).

I have no real understanding why she dropped her mith vote/case and the fact she is still keeping him as a possible second lynch doesn't sit right with me. I was almost ready to give her the benefit of the doubt until I saw her posturing around the singer hammer. I see absolutely no reason for Amrun to make post 1051 as town.

Vote: Amrun

Still need to look at mith/fluff/marble

[Amrun]

In the thing about mith, I was saying that when I was reading along, I was paying more attention because mith hadn't put down a vote early in the game, and that post stuck out to me and at first I couldn't figure out why - then eventually I figured it out, as explained in the rest of the post. I do realize now that the wording was confusing.

I have never played with Fluffscum but I have skimmed several Fluffscum games and read completely and organically farside's Dating Game mafia just because I was interested in the set up and followed it. Fluff was scum and I read that correctly before he got outted by the cop (though I wasn't in the game so I didn't post that, obviously).

I believed iPie was town throughout the whole game and never doubted that. I told Klazam that in our QT when he was getting wagoned and I don't think I ever cast suspicion on him or tried to after I replaced in. The reasoning for this is related to his early wagon, the way it built, and his behavior around it. It was very townie. Some other people earned higher town reads because they acted town AND had good reads, and/or acted more town than him. Ipie's emotions read as genuine to me, but his reads were bad, as I have said. I never once expressed a willingness to vote for him.

As for singer, singer was acting scummy, imho. I thought the "are there two scum?" thing was fake after she saw people write Chris B off for a mistake and to a lesser extent, me, and her reads felt lazy and opportunistic (though they were just lazy as she wasn't really into the game yet, as it turned out). Still, my townread on Sevei warranted caution, hence the waiting before hammering - and then her reaction after she was hammered was sooooooooooo townie that I knew my read on Sevei had been right all along. Those posts you quoted look disjointed in isolation, but they fail to take into account context. During that time period, I was very busy and phone posting and didn't have time to be as transparent as I like to be in an ideal world.

re: mith and re: you, I will get back to you once I dig up the relevant posts to demonstrate my thoughts.

[Amrun]

Ipie: His reads are terrible, so very terrible, but I don't think he's scum.

This is the first time I address Ipie in my big info dump - this is what I say about him, and this never once changes. Sotty, you are attempting to twist this into a contradiction that just is not there.

Amrun: Other than the possibility that he omitted the read simply because he didn't actually

have

a read (i.e. wasn't genuinely scumhunting), in 215 I mentioned the possible conclusions I could draw from his omission (scum with Equinox, pushing mislynch on IP, or both).

I didn't ask anything of Equinox because I didn't have anything to ask her about. ~shrug~ Her response to my initial suspicion (87, before I'd caught up with the game and started in on DemonHybrid) was fine, even if I didn't totally buy it. After that, my bad feelings about her were more related to odd behaviour from other players than anything she was doing herself, and while I like to throw out comments about pairings early in the game to illicit reactions (and to note for later), I don't tend to rely on them much until I have some flips to work with (no doubt, that's part of why I find argument's like DH's - about the Equinox-IP pairing he thought LlamaFluff was suggesting - scummy).

(Also, keep in mind that when you say I spend "most of the day" arguing with DH, we're talking about two real-time days.)

I am not saying that the scum are both absolutely 100% off the wagon. What I am saying is that I find it extremely unlikely both scum are

on

the wagon (both because of bus theory, and because of strong town reads on some of those players - IP, Thor, Sotty), and given that the pool of suspects off wagon is now 4, and we have 4 tries to get this right...

Part of that feeling actually stems from me taking into account all styles of play (and specifically, the impression I have of the site meta): in the current game, bussing is almost

expected

of scum. Even the most well timed bus may not buy much town cred, so sacrificing a partner in a game with so little room for error would seem a foolish play for the scum. (Admittedly, part of why people are so wary of bussing is due to its prevalence, but I do think the setup would encourage scum to protect each other more than the norm.)

This is the particular post of mith's in response to my own where I said I liked this response. mith stopped tunneling DH so much and actually switched his read on DH - and also defended me pretty heavily. The switch on DH wasn't necessary; after the investment in DH, he could have kept going there, but he didn't. Not sure scum mith would have done that so close to to finish line of getting DH lynched. His defense of me made me uncomfortable, a bit, though - while I saw it as a towntell in Llama, in mith it is null because I was so heavily attacking mith that it could have been an attempt to buddy to me to reverse my read.

So, after all is said and done, I find mith less scummy than I once did, hence why my erstwhile second lynch candidate (Llamarble) has moved into the #1 slot. However, by PoE, mith is still scummier than a lot of the other slots who I have outright townreads on. I feel a little confused about mith myself, so it is natural you sense a little confusion there. Another thing I don't like is how Llamarble wrote off mith in his pairings thing initially so I still see an associative tell there. Also, he is attacking Fluff today with points I disagree with and Fluff is a townread of mine.

As for those points, which you asked about:

I've said a lot about LlamaFluff already. Nothing I said yesterday as changed: He defended DGB (pretty strongly), then tried to push the bussing angle, his vote for me was weakly justified and didn't make sense in the context of "one of Sotty/Llamarble definitely scum", possibly setting up mislynches in post (710) on the basis of a likely DH mislynch (a stronger point for me now that I'm feeling the DH-town vibe), and of course there's the bad Sevei vote.

With Llamarble, it's more that I want substance from him. I'm trying to be more conscious of him sliding under the radar, because so far I don't have much of a feel for him at all - the big point against him for me is where his vote has been placed (off DGB, on singersinger). He's my number two as much by PoE as anything; he hasn't done anything that makes me think he's town.

I have explained that I don't think defending DGB is a scumtell for Fluff. I don't think Llama's vote for mith was THAT poorly justified, and given my relative reads on these two players, I don't find that a scumtell. I don't think Llama was setting up mislynches, and Llama defended himself on this point quite well; even mith himself said he understood why I don't see this as a scumtell. The Sevei vote I don't see as a scumtell, because Llama obviously qualified it as being a compromise vote. When no one will wagon your top scumreads, you choose the townread whose townflip will aid your cases the most... This seems obvious and town-motivated to me and I play that way and have done so in this very game.


About you, I think my thought process on you has been fairly transparent - not entirely, but it is not as obscure as you are making it out to be. In the early game, I found you to be pretty townish because I totally followed, understood, and agreed with your attacks on Llamarble, and this continues to be the biggest point in your favor. However, after I replaced in, you made some sloppy attacks that I thought were closing to mudslinging than scumhunting - for example, you suggesting that I replaced into Klazam's slot because I am a better scum player than Klazam, which I quickly broke down as a bad argument, and also you telling me if I didn't want DH or Sevei lynched, I should "do something about it" when I was clearly doing all I could, but also your continual attacks on Thor for coasting when I don't think he was. You don't seem very committed to your reads, either, which concerns me. Yesterday, I was willing to lynch you as a compromise simply because the other top candidates were DH and Sevei, both of whom I have very strong town reads, and if you were to die and flip town, it would aid me in getting Llamarble lynched at the very least. How is that hard to understand? Three townreads get strung up... you choose the townread that is the weakest to vote for.

If I missed anything, let me know.

[Amrun]

Updated reads list:

SCUM

Llamarable
--
mith
Sotty7
Thor 665
--
Equinox
--
LLamaFluff
DemonHybrid
Chris B

TOWN

Linebreaks denote leaps in level of scumminess. The {mith, Sotty, Thor} category fluctuate periodically.

[mith]

Sorry guys, 10 hour work days are kicking my butt right now (that, and Michelle came over to watch the Game of Thrones finale). The Sotty/Amrun wall is making my eyes bleed... will read it tomorrow night when I have more time. (Llamarble's posts don't make any sense either, but I don't think the tired is to blame there.)

[Amrun]

Thinking about it a little more, the whole iPie thing really bothers me. Why would I spend so much time insulting the reads of someone I was trying to buddy? That is ludicrous.

[Chris B]

Thor's not the most cooperative player, is he? I find him hard to get a read on as a result, since any time I ask people for their thoughts on something, he jumps in with a sarcastic comment or trying to avoid the point. Annoying.

However, to continue from the last day phase...:

Vote Sotty7

I'm still not convinced by Llamafluff's 'most of my team is one person', but Sotty's been one of my top reads for a while.

[DemonHybrid]

Chris, update us on why you think Sotty is scum.

[mith]

Eh... not impressed with Sotty's case. Agree that 1051 is a little weird, but otherwise Amrun's stance on Sevei/singer (and InflatablePie) seems clear, and I can't help feeling that her mentions of me in particular have an agenda ("Why did you drop your mith case?"; "Would you lynch mith today?"; "Amrun's best posting comes with her rationale for her mith vote..."; "I have no real understanding why she dropped her mith vote/case..."), perhaps feeling out the possibility of a mislynch on me (or perhaps subtly pushing Amrun away from Llamarble?).

Amrun: Could you elaborate on "First, it was just his lack of vote

and his reasoning for it

which I didn't like." (emphasis mine)? What about my reasoning bothered you? (Just caught my eye reading through Sotty's case... may be totally irrelevant, but worth asking anyway.)

[Amrun]

You said something like, "I don't vote without an intent to lynch" and it just seemed counter-productive. How else is the game moved along? But as I said, I didn't take this for a scumtell, it just caught my eye.

[Thor665]

Thor's not the most cooperative player, is he? I find him hard to get a read on as a result, since any time I ask people for their thoughts on something, he jumps in with a sarcastic comment or trying to avoid the point. Annoying.

You could try asking again, or explaining why my sarcasm isn't valid.
When I answer sarcastically it's generally because I consider the question non-worthwhile, pointless, or laughable (or some combination thereof). If your questions are actually legitimately important to getting a read on someone and I deny that read through my rapier wit...shouldn't you rephrase and ask again?

I support your vote though I'll also support the question about your reasoning. Did I have your support on this one yesterday? I don't recall it.

[Chris B]

Thor's not the most cooperative player, is he? I find him hard to get a read on as a result, since any time I ask people for their thoughts on something, he jumps in with a sarcastic comment or trying to avoid the point. Annoying.

You could try asking again, or explaining why my sarcasm isn't valid.
When I answer sarcastically it's generally because I consider the question non-worthwhile, pointless, or laughable (or some combination thereof). If your questions are actually legitimately important to getting a read on someone and I deny that read through my rapier wit...shouldn't you rephrase and ask again?

In day one, we had our first real wagon, and I asked people to state their cases for or against. On the basis that we had our first real solid piece of information that we'd be able to go back to. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

Today, Llamarble is throwing in huge amounts of IIOA, WIFOM and general nothingness. My post was intended to point this out, and also ask other people's verdicts on it. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

I support your vote though I'll also support the question about your reasoning. Did I have your support on this one yesterday? I don't recall it.

If anyone has made their case against Sotty, it's me. And you don't recall if you had my support yesterday? God, it's a shame that posts from yesterday aren't kept and we have to rely only on memory. Wouldn't it be handy if you could go back a couple of pages and check?

[Thor665]

Today, Llamarble is throwing in huge amounts of IIOA, WIFOM and general nothingness. My post was intended to point this out, and also ask other people's verdicts on it. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

So...by me mocking a sideways attack on Llamarble when you're not even willing to vote him it makes me unreadable? How about you ask again? How about you ask a specific question that doesn't look like an attack post? How about you consider me to be blatantly defending him by shutting you down?

If anyone has made their case against Sotty, it's me. And you don't recall if you had my support yesterday? God, it's a shame that posts from yesterday aren't kept and we have to rely only on memory. Wouldn't it be handy if you could go back a couple of pages and check?

That would be handy, unfortunately I have no fingers. So, no.
Why did it take a couple posts to continue your awesome case that I am just sheeping off of?