Mini 280 - Game Over

[Jaguar]

Struggling with a post that doesn't repeat what i've already said. I still think that Aelyn is the better lynch for today.

I still think both LML and Fiasco are scummily obsessed with each other. I don't think it's worth worrying about now, as it could just a case of mutually inflaming townies with the scum either stepping out of the way or putting wood on the fire as appropriate.

Because of the interaction between these two even before any cop claims, I can see where this is a possibility. But I still think we should look closely at Fiasco for day 2 (and LML, dpending on the outcome of the aelyn lynch).

I'm just surprised that the Aelyn lynch is taking so long.

[Don Gaetano]

For god's sake people.

Read "Mini 255 - Raj’s Freaktown I"

Aelyn is IMHO obviously innocent. I know it's dangerous trying to outguess the mod but I still think there's no way LyingBrian wouldn't put an un-nightkillable role in his game.

Even if you don't agree with that statement. Think about this:

Most likely Aelyn did not read Mini 255. If that assumption is correct, Aelyn has to be innocent because the chances of him claiming that precise role, without knowing about that game are even much smaller than me and LML investigating the same person.

If Aelyn did read Mini 255. The logical assumption would be that LB had already put a role like that in the game, so it would be a stupid risk to take, for a claim that's hard to believe in the first place. He had no way of knowing that I would remember that game either.

That means that I'm paranoid or insane, and that LML is sane or naive (most likely sane)

-----

From now on I will consider both Aelyn and LML to be confirmed townies. Our lynch should be one of the 7 that haven't claimed.

[draygn_mage]

@Norinel- except of course that the scum don't know WHO the SK is and un-nightkillable is a good SK ability. either way, if there is still a doc around, then someone would have to get lucky and guess who the scum will target.

In other news, now DG thinks he is insane or paranoid?

[Don Gaetano]

I said, I believed I was insane or paranoid many pages ago, but it would seem people decided to ignore that post.

[Fiasco]

First off, all my previous post number references should be decreased by 1 due to the deletion of Speedy's post.

Second, no one has commented on a probable Lee lie:

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

later explaining:

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch. I made a decision (to vote for Aelyn)

He claims he felt a need to stop Aelyn's lynch that was so strong that it made him come out, even though he

really

didn't want to come out. And yet a few hours later, when Aelyn had accumulated some more votes, he was wholeheartedly pushing that same bandwagon! That his vote was a fifth vote may or may not have been due to a genuine miscount, but in any case he didn't seem interested in thinking things over before lynching Aelyn. This, and the fact that there is nothing he said between the cop claims and his Aelyn vote about not wanting Aelyn to be lynched, suggests to me he is simply a scum who (in the heat of an argument with me) misremembered his story behind his cop claim.

I may or may not have time to post more in a moment. If so that may mean a double post. Apologies in advance.

[Fiasco]

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town.

Without the context of the rest of the setup, assumptions based on balance are generally unhelpful.

I don't really agree. It may be true that the town has a huge hidden advantage to compensate, but I think mods don't just balance on a global, whole-game scale; they also try not to make the individual elements extremely powerful or extremely anti-powerful. And I think they're right, because games with extremely powerful elements compensating extremely anti-powerful elements are harder to judge and more likely to swing all the way in one direction.

If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG.

There will be one much more obvious nightkill target- whichever of LML or DG got a correct result.

That's a good point, but there are some caveats. Mafia-SK crossfire is one of them. Mafia-SK nightkill coordination is another (I could explain, but I'm not going to give them tips.)

Granting your point, though, it still seems to me lynching LML is better.

Let's say scum don't coordinate, and both attack the most obvious target.

Let's say we have no doctor,

or

a doctor that can protect against only one attack (which seems like the standard case, especially for backups). Then if we lynch Aelyn, we lose a claimed coward, and we lose the sane cop that night. We're left with a non-sane claimed cop. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, we lose both claimed cops, and we're left with a claimed coward, whose alignment we will have a good idea about now that we know the cop alignments.

Now let's say we have a doctor who can protect against multiple attacks (unlikely, IMHO). Then if we lynch Aelyn, we're left with a non-sane claimed cop and a sane claimed cop. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, we're left either with a probably sane cop and a confirmed-guilty Aelyn, or with an unclear (probably fake) cop and a probably innocent Aelyn.

The second case (multiple-heal doc) is hard to judge (it depends on your views on people's alignments), but possibly favors the Aelyn lynch. The first case (no doc, or single-heal doc) is more important, because it looks more likely. And that first case presents a choice between a cop (who will possibly be nightkilled next night!) of uncertain alignment and certain non-sanity on the one hand (by lynching Aelyn), and a mostly-confirmed bulletproof townie (or catching two scum!) on the other hand (by lynching LML). Seems to me this strongly favors the LML lynch, as a bulletproof townie is a big endgame advantage.

That was probably horribly unclear, but the gist of it is that we'll probably lose our sane cop anyway, so the claimed bulletproof is more important to preserve by not lynching him.

[Fiasco]

Don't get mad at me for the multi-post; it turns out there are some more things to mention.

Here's an interesting recent LML statement from a thread in Mafia Discussion:

I perfer to NOT random vote ever.

And yet he thinks I should have been lynched for saying "(Assuming it was random)"?

Don Gaetano, I do think that's a useful piece of evidence, but I think if you consider both Aelyn and LML confirmed innocents, you're reading too much into it. There's no reason to think Aelyn didn't see the game; there's no reason to think Aelyn couldn't have looked into LB's history when thinking of a claim; there's no reason to think LB wouldn't intentionally (not) put things into the game to prevent us from outguessing him; it's even possible Aelyn got the "coward" thing as a safe claim. And even if Aelyn is confirmed innocent, that doesn't quite confirm LML, as it's possible we have just an insane cop.

Norinel, I think given the current climate it's almost certain I'll be lyched if Aelyn turns up innocent; and in that case we'll lose two pro-townies due to lynches (leaving four),

plus

two nights of nightkills (leaving between zero and four). Crossfire or not, I think our situation is extremely bad then.

[LoudmouthLee]

First off, all my previous post number references should be decreased by 1 due to the deletion of Speedy's post.

Second, no one has commented on a probable Lee lie:

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

later explaining:

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch. I made a decision (to vote for Aelyn)

He claims he felt a need to stop Aelyn's lynch that was so strong that it made him come out, even though he

really

didn't want to come out. And yet a few hours later, when Aelyn had accumulated some more votes, he was wholeheartedly pushing that same bandwagon! That his vote was a fifth vote may or may not have been due to a genuine miscount, but in any case he didn't seem interested in thinking things over before lynching Aelyn. This, and the fact that there is nothing he said between the cop claims and his Aelyn vote about not wanting Aelyn to be lynched, suggests to me he is simply a scum who (in the heat of an argument with me) misremembered his story behind his cop claim.

I may or may not have time to post more in a moment. If so that may mean a double post. Apologies in advance.

I didn't want to come out. Why would a cop want to come out? Yes, I initally wanted to lynch Aelyn. I admitted to a miscount of votes and, for that matter,

still think the Aelyn lynch isn't a misuguded lynch

, but it's simply not a good lynch, such as yourself.

You're manufacturing things, and quite frankly, if you notice, no one is even close to going with you here. That's because the rest of the town sees through your bullpoop.

The truth of the matter is still, a lynch of Aelyn would give the town information.

I'm still curious, because, humbly speaking, you have done a VERY POOR job of explaining why you rather a lynch of me over DG. Especially after DG says the following:

For god's sake people.

Read "Mini 255 - Raj’s Freaktown I"

Aelyn is IMHO obviously innocent. I know it's dangerous trying to outguess the mod but I still think there's no way LyingBrian wouldn't put an un-nightkillable role in his game.

Even if you don't agree with that statement. Think about this:

Most likely Aelyn did not read Mini 255. If that assumption is correct, Aelyn has to be innocent because the chances of him claiming that precise role, without knowing about that game are even much smaller than me and LML investigating the same person.

If Aelyn did read Mini 255. The logical assumption would be that LB had already put a role like that in the game, so it would be a stupid risk to take, for a claim that's hard to believe in the first place. He had no way of knowing that I would remember that game either.

That means that I'm paranoid or insane, and that LML is sane or naive (most likely sane)

-----

From now on I will consider both Aelyn and LML to be confirmed townies. Our lynch should be one of the 7 that haven't claimed.

So, you're basically saying that I'm a damn fool, and so is Kingpin, DG, Passdog, and any other person that's incredibly suspicious of you.

If you're pro-town, you've played this game like a damned fool, pushing for the lynch of a cop. If you're scum, I applaud your mettle, but the truth be told, I promise you, you'll be lynched unless either myself or DG clears you.

PS: Let it be known, is it wasn't painfully obvious already: If I'm still alive and Fiasco makes it through D1, He will be my N2 investigation target.

Granting your point, though, it still seems to me lynching LML is better.

More Claimed Cop lynching BS.

Let's say we have no doctor, or a doctor that can protect against only one attack (which seems like the standard case, especially for backups). Then if we lynch Aelyn, we lose a claimed coward, and we lose the sane cop that night. We're left with a non-sane claimed cop. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, we lose both claimed cops, and we're left with a claimed coward, whose alignment we will have a good idea about now that we know the cop alignments.

How would you have any clue about Aelyn's allignment if you lose both claimed cops (I'm a cop. DG is my question mark.) In this case, you'll have lost both cops (again, assumption: DG is a cop), and NO COP HAS A SECOND RESULT!

I'm a bit wary, however, of DG, honestly... If he has the SAME PM as me (as he has referenced to), how can he be "sure" that he's not sane. He's metagaming bigtime here... I'm not planning on voting for a claimed cop any time soon... however, the moral of this longwinded post is:

Confirm Vote: Fiasco

FoS: Don Gaetano

I'll be willing to lynch, if it's a town concensus: Aelyn

[LoudmouthLee]

Don't get mad at me for the multi-post; it turns out there are some more things to mention.

Here's an interesting recent LML statement from a thread in Mafia Discussion:

I perfer to NOT random vote ever.

And yet he thinks I should have been lynched for saying "(Assuming it was random)"?

Don Gaetano, I do think that's a useful piece of evidence, but I think if you consider both Aelyn and LML confirmed innocents, you're reading too much into it. There's no reason to think Aelyn didn't see the game; there's no reason to think Aelyn couldn't have looked into LB's history when thinking of a claim; there's no reason to think LB wouldn't intentionally (not) put things into the game to prevent us from outguessing him; it's even possible Aelyn got the "coward" thing as a safe claim. And even if Aelyn is confirmed innocent, that doesn't quite confirm LML, as it's possible we have just an insane cop.

Norinel, I think given the current climate it's almost certain I'll be lyched if Aelyn turns up innocent; and in that case we'll lose two pro-townies due to lynches (leaving four),

plus

two nights of nightkills (leaving between zero and four). Crossfire or not, I think our situation is extremely bad then.

Prefer. Look it up.

[Fiasco]

I didn't want to come out. Why would a cop want to come out?

I agree you wouldn't want to come out as a cop; that's not where I thought you were lying.

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch.

Yes, I initally wanted to lynch Aelyn.

Lynch all liars. Vote stands.

I'm still curious, because, humbly speaking, you have done a VERY POOR job of explaining why you rather a lynch of me over DG.

I answered this question in an earlier post, the one with four points. I still agree with those points, mostly. I agree that DG looks a bit scummier now than then, but still not nearly as scummy as you.

So, you're basically saying that I'm a damn fool, and so is Kingpin, DG, Passdog, and any other person that's incredibly suspicious of you.

Your attempt to verbally abuse people on my behalf is noted. I think some of the people you mention are scum, and some of them are confused townies.

How would you have any clue about Aelyn's allignment if you lose both claimed cops (I'm a cop. DG is my question mark.) In this case, you'll have lost both cops (again, assumption: DG is a cop), and NO COP HAS A SECOND RESULT!

I think one of you will turn up scum. Other than that there was the thing about your PM implying you're sane, but since you seem to be retracting that, yeah, if you're both innocent we'll have to assess Aelyn's alignment based on his actions, so that's one of the weak points in the Lynch LML strategy.

[LoudmouthLee]

Look. You're doing it AGAIN.

I voted Aelyn because even though I don't AGREE with the lynch, I though it was the RIGHT lynch.

I feel like a broken record.

[vikingfan]

I see Fiasco still hasn't explained why he likes the lynch of LML so much over DG.

Dang, I REALLY wish we had our daykill vig. Given how many people have stated that they are suspicious of Fiasco, would it be a worthwhile move to recommend to a vig (if we still have one) to kill fiasco tonight? Just a thought, because that could save us a lynch as I think it's safe to say he'll be #1 with a bullet tomorrow on everyone's lists. Mind you, I don't even know that we have another vig, but if we do, I think it's worth a shot. What do people think?

[vikingfan]

BTW, we would, of course, not actually RECOMMEND the plan unless Fiasco claims, just in case he's a doc or something.

[LoudmouthLee]

BTW, we would, of course, not actually RECOMMEND the plan unless Fiasco claims, just in case he's a doc or something.

I would recommend a fiasco claim before we go to night anyway.

[Fiasco]

I see Fiasco still hasn't explained why he likes the lynch of LML so much over DG.

See #174

I would recommend a fiasco claim before we go to night anyway.

Alright, I'm hereby claiming Fiasco. Any counterclaims?

[LoudmouthLee]

You're lucky I found that funny

[draygn_mage]

You know at this point I am about to get out a coin and see who I should vote for based on that.

Heads = Fiasco
Tails = Aelyn

What do you know?

unvote, vote Fiasco

I'm willing to let the scum sort out the cop problem for us.

[Fiasco]

After some rereading, I'm less sure of LML's guilt, but I still think

the Aelyn lynch is a bad idea

. The main objection to lynching LML is that he may be a sane cop. But

if LML is a sane cop, Aelyn is a valuable bulletproof townie, and LML will probably be nightkilled anyway

.

If a third of all games like this one have backup docs, and a third of these backup docs are multi-docs, then in eight out of nine cases, we get a nightkill. Our cops simply aren't going to do us much good now that they're out. That makes Aelyn our most useful claimed role.

[Fiasco]

You know at this point I am about to get out a coin and see who I should vote for based on that.

unvote, vote draygn_mage

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 4) Aelyn
    • Jaguar
    • KingPin
    • Norinel
    • vikingfan
  • 3) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
    • LoudmouthLee
    • Passdog
  • 1) draygn_mage
    • Fiasco
  • 2)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
    • Don Gaetano
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[KingPin]

I still think Aelyn is the best play for today. Simply to help the town.

I do not think this town gets anywhere by lynching a claimed cop on day 1. And as of now, I cannot fault anyone for wanting to lynch someone that is advocating that! In my opinion, Fiasco is the most scummy from D1 activities and discussions. But his scumminess can be evaluated tonight by a cop, which LML has already said he would do.

[LoudmouthLee]

I still think Aelyn is the best play for today. Simply to help the town.

I do not think this town gets anywhere by lynching a claimed cop on day 1. And as of now, I cannot fault anyone for wanting to lynch someone that is advocating that! In my opinion, Fiasco is the most scummy from D1 activities and discussions. But his scumminess can be evaluated tonight by a cop, which LML has already said he would do.

Agreed.

Unvote: Fiasco
Vote: Aelyn

[Norinel]

Even if you don't agree with that statement [that Aelyn is obviously innocent because of M255]. Think about this:

Most likely Aelyn did not read Mini 255. If that assumption is correct, Aelyn has to be innocent because the chances of him claiming that precise role, without knowing about that game are even much smaller than me and LML investigating the same person.

If Aelyn did read Mini 255. The logical assumption would be that LB had already put a role like that in the game, so it would be a stupid risk to take, for a claim that's hard to believe in the first place. He had no way of knowing that I would remember that game either.

That means that I'm paranoid or insane, and that LML is sane or naive (most likely sane)

Actually, the entire train of logic here assumes that mini 255 makes it much more likely that the coward role would be in this game, or that Aelyn would use such reasoning. I don't want to run the whole mptions line again, so I'll just say you're trying to outguess the mod way more than could possibly be sensible.

Our cops simply aren't going to do us much good now that they're out. That makes Aelyn our most useful claimed role.

Actually, the coward loses a big portion of his power as well by claiming- the ability to get attacked and block a scum kill. As it stands, he's just a voice and vote that we might assume to be on the town's side and not going anywhere.

[Don Gaetano]

Vote: Kingpin

FOS: Everyone advocating lynching Aelyn

-----

I played that game, and as such, I'm absolutely convinced that I'm insane and Aelyn is not scum. The fact that so many people so willingly agree to lynch Aelyn when the cop that got the guilty result believes he's insane, just goes to show that scum like the idea of lynching an unnightkillable townie. If Aelyn was scum it would be very easy for potential scum-partners to disagree with lynching him without looking scummy afterwards.

To the townies out there, I just want to say that lynching an unnightkillable townie will put us in a very bad situation tomorow. I'm convinced that many of the leading acdvocates of an Aelyn lynch are scum, and the rest are misguided, easily manipulated townies.

-----

...I get easily worked up, sorry for the aggressive nature of this post.

[KingPin]

DG:

How are you going to use ANOTHER GAME to support your suspicions in this game? I care less about what happened in other games and more about what is happening in this game. I really, really think it is 1. poor play to assume that the mod is providing the EXACT same roles in his games and 2. completely silly to base your sanity on such information.

You are suggesting that you are insane, not through multiple night investigations that conflict with results posted. Instead, you suggest that you are insane based on a claim! Would you have changed your mind if LML hadn't come forward with his information? God I hope not! And without MORE information, it is hard for me to accept that just becuase you played in a game in the past with this same mod, that you think you are now insane!