Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, I really need to think this through properly.

Hoopla, in a 4/5 split, why isn't it optimal for no scum to be in the no-vig pool and take a shot at the vig at night? You say that this is risky, but it really isn't, depending on what sort of reads they've got on the two remaining players in the possible-vig pool. Even if they do a 1/2 split, they could still take a shot at the vig if they have a read on him. Plus you say it's a gamble on scum's part, but if your plan is so advantageous for town, then obviously the correct choice for scum is to take this gamble and play for the win if they hit right (which could be very likely depending on how useful the det-psych, especially if the hider is choosing not to use his ability for fear of reducing numbers).

I think the hider hiding, and announcing his hide, is a really smart option. Even if it's something similar to what DF suggested. It distracts scum from vig-hunting. And if we're looking at distractions from vig-hunting, then the hider hiding behind a VT is a really good idea, because it at least means that if they do go vig-hunting, they risk the hider confirming someone as town (which would mean 4 conf. townies with 9 alive and probably a good lead on scum).

Just thinking out loud right now, but I want to look at all options before anything is set in stone.

[Amrun]

Why would scum go all in the non-vig pool? That guarantees two scum deaths before D2.

[Amrun]

I just thought of a way for scum to manipulate this but I'm not sure if I should say.

[zMuffinMan]

Why would scum go all in the non-vig pool? That guarantees two scum deaths before D2.

No scum in the non-vig pool means at most 1 scum dead before D2... And possibly none...

[Amrun]

No, because isn't the vig supposed to shoot from the non vig pool as well?

[glowball]

Okay first off WOW

um, RVS did not go how I expected- briefly looking over I see there is a proposed mass claim and my first thought is NO

absolutely not day 1! However, there has been tons of discussion and lengthy posts about it so I am going to look those over and see what is what.

[Amrun]

Zmuffin: And if all 3 scum go in non-vig pool, one is definitely lynched. Obviously. Are you saying we might no lynch?

[glowball]

Nevermind- this is ridiculous it seems like you guys went through several options, so can someone just summarize the plan so I can say whether or not I agree.

I will say this, in Open set ups the town have one major advantage NUMBERS and scum have one major advantage KNOWLEDGE. While we sit around and wonder who is who and turn on each other the only thing scum has to do is survive and try to take out our PRs since they are a threat to them. Outing our PRs is never good especially day one, I would dare say lynch Hoopla or Muff see the flip so we can analyze the motivations behind pushing this plan then go forward with Night Actions and tomorrow we can address the mass claim idea because today I don't see it doing any justice.

[zMuffinMan]

The vig is supposed to be shooting from the possible-vig pool and we are supposed to be lynching from the non-vig pool, Amrun. The reason for this is so we avoid running the vig up to L-1 D1 (because he won't be in the non-vig pool).

So if all 3 scum go in the possible-vig pool, they have a 50/50 shot at taking out the vig N1, not even assuming they have some sort of PR read on him.

We lynch a VT from the non-vig pool D1 (because theyre all VTs) and vig still has a 25% chance of killing the VT in the possible-vig pool....

[andrew94]

i dont like glowball

[swankidelic]

Here's a summary for clarity's sake. The massclaim divides the game into three parties: a group of PR claims, a group of VT claims, and a group of no claims.

The Detective, Hider and Hider Tracker obviously go in the PR group - but not the Vigilante!
The VT group is a bunch of players who claim they're VT. We should only lynch from this group.
The no-claim group is where the Vigilante hides. It selects its targets only from this group.

So the PR pool are kinda sorta confirmed townies (any counterclaims can be sorted out). The game then turns into a kind of a race for town to outkill the scum.

The scum can systematically nightkill the confirmed-town PR group first, but that leaves the Vig alone to help town catch up in the killing race.
Or, the scum can try hunt for the Vig in the no-claim group, but that leaves a bunch of confirmed-town PRs available to root them out.

The way that this is organized takes the typical decisions the scum make in a game and makes them very, very difficult. Every decision the scum make comes at a cost - either leaving PRs alive or forcing themselves into a tight rhetorical corner.

There are some kinks that Hoopla, Muffin and DarkFlashlight are working out, namely what the Hider should do. The Hider has the ability to upset the race in the scum's favor, so he and the Vig need to be super smart about their plays.

[swankidelic]

I like the plan. It's really clever. I think it tilts the game in town's favor a significant amount - probably on the order of having a 5th PR. It won't win us the game, but it's a serious leg-up.

The Vig should always kill from its no-claim pool. It defeats the purpose of that pool otherwise. I think the Hider should remain autonomous and flexible, maybe consider recommendations from the peanut gallery, but I'm not sure if there's a universally optimal strategy for it.

[glowball]

Why is the Vig killing those who don't claim? Is it just established that scum don't claim, because scum would very well claim vanilla to get by in this set up and then we'd be stuck between counter claims which aren't even really countered there will just be a whole bunch of townies.

[DarkFlashlight]

i dont like glowball

...


Swank already explained the plan, but I rewrote it for myself on page 5, and copying/pasting isn't time consuming:

Okay, let me try to break down the plan so that I know I understand it, and anyone else who reads this. Steps are written in order they would happen:
1. Everyone goes through and claims either det/psy or not det/psy. If there are no CC's we move on.
2. Hider tracker claims [in the same fashion]. If not CC'ed, move on.
3. Hider claims [also in the same fashion].
4. Three of the leftover [potential] 9 claim not vig.
5. The other 6 are in the vig pool, 5 Mafia/VT's+the real vig.
6. Lynch as normal, but only out of the 4 who claimed not vig.
7. Vig shoots one of the 5 other people in the vig pool.
Repeat steps 6 and 7.

Also throw in some possible help from the other PR's.

I updated steps 4 and 5 to fit recent adaptations.

I don't support refusing to catch up, but if you're not going to regardless, might as well not keep you in the dark.

No, because isn't the vig supposed to shoot from the non vig pool as well?

No. Vig is the only means of draining the vig pool, which is why it's so important he doesn't die.



The flaw seemed to me to be that if all three scum go in the vig pool, they have a 1/3, 1/2, 1/1 chance of hitting vig for the first three nights, so he'd definitely be dead on the third, and meanwhile we're only lynching VT's, BUT, if they do hit on N1 or N2 then it's obvious that there are a lot of scum in the vig pool, not the VT pool, and we switch where we're fishing from. It wouldn't be worth overlooking conftowns if there's only a 1/5 or 1/4 shot.

Why is the Vig killing those who don't claim? Is it just established that scum don't claim, because scum would very well claim vanilla to get by in this set up and then we'd be stuck between counter claims which aren't even really countered there will just be a whole bunch of townies.

Swank was using no-claim as a synonym for the vig pool. The vig and five Maf/VT's are the no-claims, not people who just haven't claimed.

[Amrun]

Glowball, I will quickly lose patience if you refuse to read and then expect us to re-explain everything to you.

I was busy workposting early and mixed up the pool from which the vig shoots. Sorry.

P-edit: DF has pinpointed the flaw I saw earlier: if all scum hide in the no claim pool, it's much easier for them to find the vig. And if they get lucky and find it while being mostly in the VT pool, we're fucked.

[Amrun]

I also meant to say:

Swank, why the 180 about liking the plan?

[glowball]

I refuse to read a plan that seems to have been re-worked several different times. Also, notice how I don't care. I said I was going V/LA you guys could be a little considerate on the posting and know that NO I don't want to read pages and pages of thoughts.

Goodness, calm down. It's either explain it to me, or have a clueless teammate which then would foil your plan because you'd want me lynched and then blah blah blah claim day 2 anyway. I don't have the patience for people being rude to me. I started off nice and all I ask for is the same WITHOUT THE ATTITUDE

[Amrun]

So you think we should stall the game as a consideration to you? Seriously?

I could understand if there were pages and pages, but this is page 6. If you have time to post 4 times, you have time to read it.

The initial summary is fine, but if you are going to ask us to re-hash every nuance... That's an incredible amount of noise.

You SHOULD be interested in reading the game for scumhunting purposes, but you're not, and that concerns me.

Sorry if you see this as being rude (I don't), but I consider it rude to ask for the game handed to you on a silver platter and rude to "refuse" to read the hard work we have put into a game you committed to.

[glowball]

I never said it should be stalled, but I am asking for a summary not of the game but of a plan I wasn't around for during it's conception. ONE THING- the plan. We are on the same team and if you don't want to help me understand what you guys have had days to talk about then don't.

For the record, I am reading but if you guys are trying to hear my thoughts and speed up the process then you should help. If not then you can wait while I read and work on my other games as well and I will get to this when I feel like it. Does that work better for you? Probably not, but those are the only choices short of lynching me for not wanting to read.

Also, the only reason I even ask and refuse to read is because I am against this plan. I am giving you guys the chance to pitch this to me because as it stands I will not be participating.

[Oversoul]

Ok. I am posting to check in with everyone. I already perused the new posts, specifically Hoopla's plan and than the situation with the Hider role, but I will need to reread the posts again in order to (hopefully) gain a full understanding of the plan. It is a lot to wrap my tiny little head around, so bear with me please.

My opinion still stands though, we should wait until after the first night if the PRs are going to claim. Hopefully the Vigilante doesn't kill a PR on accident.

I have a few reads, but I will post those later when I have more time to think.

[swankidelic]

P-edit: DF has pinpointed the flaw I saw earlier: if all scum hide in the no claim pool, it's much easier for them to find the vig. And if they get lucky and find it while being mostly in the VT pool, we're fucked.

Well the consolation there is that it leaves our PR pool pristine. Even if there's a lucky NK on N1, we have three conftown PRs to work with.

That may be the imperative for the Det/Psych and Hider on N1, to focus on the no-claim/vig pool.

I'm just

dying

to post a POOLS CLOSED macro.

[swankidelic]

I also meant to say:

Swank, why the 180 about liking the plan?

Well, at first, I just wanted to see how it played out regardless of my interest in winning. See post #58. Then when Hoopla posted

If they go all in the lynch pool, they essentially guarantee one of them being lynched today. If they all go in the vig pool, they essentially guarantee being vigged N1. The only rational play here is for scum to split 2 and 1 across the two groups.

that little lightbulb above my head clicked on. It's all about making scum sacrifice rhetoric options. Seeing Hoopla and Muffin discuss it convinced me. It's clever, well thought-out and internally consistent, not some puffery that requires a leap of faith. (Just like Hoopla said. mmm-hmm-hmm that's good crow!)

[swankidelic]

I never said it should be stalled, but I am asking for a summary not of the game but of a plan I wasn't around for during it's conception.... Also, the only reason I even ask and refuse to read is because I am against this plan. I am giving you guys the chance to pitch this to me because as it stands I will not be participating.

So, yeah, it's a complex plan, and it took me a while to digest it, too. I wanted to write that summary as clearly and concisely as possible. There's some really smart basic ideas that, if you understand them, makes all the rewordings make sense. Lemme try again:

The PR pool is for town confirmations. If scum counterclaim these, it's disprovable.
The lynch/VT pool is to make sure the vig doesn't get lynched.
The vig/no-claim pool is to give the vig a place to hide from scum nightkills.

Scum can claim (or not claim) whatever they want, but they'll be sorted into one of these pools. Each one comes with its own risk: scum in the VT pool have to worry about getting lynched, and scum in the no-claim pool have to worry about getting vigged.

If that doesn't do it for you, well, feel free to scumhunt, we still need discussion to drive this game.

[swankidelic]

andrew and Quilford are awful sheeps.

Also,

okay i understand that plan.
/agree

i hate walls, i will only skim walls.

How did you come to understand Hoopla's plan if you only skim walls?

[neil1113]

I never said it should be stalled, but I am asking for a summary not of the game but of a plan I wasn't around for during it's conception.... Also, the only reason I even ask and refuse to read is because I am against this plan. I am giving you guys the chance to pitch this to me because as it stands I will not be participating.

So, yeah, it's a complex plan, and it took me a while to digest it, too. I wanted to write that summary as clearly and concisely as possible. There's some really smart basic ideas that, if you understand them, makes all the rewordings make sense. Lemme try again:

The PR pool is for town confirmations. If scum counterclaim these, it's disprovable.
The lynch/VT pool is to make sure the vig doesn't get lynched.
The vig/no-claim pool is to give the vig a place to hide from scum nightkills.

Scum can claim (or not claim) whatever they want, but they'll be sorted into one of these pools. Each one comes with its own risk: scum in the VT pool have to worry about getting lynched, and scum in the no-claim pool have to worry about getting vigged.

If that doesn't do it for you, well, feel free to scumhunt, we still need discussion to drive this game.

What's your take on how easy the vig could get lynched / pointed out if all the scum hide in the no-claim pool?