Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[swankidelic]

Of all the threads in all the forums in all the world, he RVS'd in mine.

/confirm

[swankidelic]

preview edit:

FoS: neil1113

for stating the obvious. I think that's page 32 of "Looking Like Town for Dummies."

There are enough VT that scum can foil counterclaim efforts. If we are going to massclaim, we should wait a day or two to shake some of that out. We can delay the massclaim by a day or two and if no PRs die a massclaim might be feasible; otherwise it's foolish (probably scummy) to suggest massclaiming on D1. I dunno. I really don't see a lot of utility in massclaiming; I don't want to massclaim unless it practically hands town a win on a silver platter.

Also, VOTE: Quilford for jumping on that shit without any discussion. Ugh.

[swankidelic]

I don't buy it. Scum can totally counterclaim effectively. If they CC a tracker or hider tracker it screws up our D2. Furthermore your plan kills the det/psych without letting them report a read.

[swankidelic]

It sounds like you think I'm scummy for not trusting you with your plan, and you think Muffin is townie for considering it. Frankly, the way Muffin analyzed and presented your plan makes him sound scummy.

You sound genuine in your desire to break the setup, though. I'm tempted to give up hopes of winning and follow through with your proposed experiment. In the end, I don't really have any metaknowledge of you, I simply don't trust you.

[swankidelic]

Re: LittleGrey - I'm not sure why she RVS vote when she has a suspicion. She even calls it an RVS vote, which to me is just.... wonky. There's enough content now, there's no need to cast an RVS vote.

[swankidelic]

Those are all suspicions. LittleGrey looks scummy.

[swankidelic]

What about smuffin's speculation was scummy, swank?

In addition to his support of a risky plan, Muffin's interpretation would completely neutralize one of the town's better PRs. When I bring up counterclaim issues, his tone is pretty dismissive - I think it's a much bigger vulnerability the plan than he does.

So, I sound genuine in my desire to break the set-up? Yet you simply don't trust me? That doesn't really match up - as "breaking the set-up" is something only town can do (something you believe I was genuine with).

Let me put it this way, then: any towntell there might be in your interest in breaking the setup isn't enough to make me hand the reins over to you.

[swankidelic]

There's little that's preemptive about my skepticism of your plan. I posted my interpretation, and I didn't like what I foresaw. Muffin elaborated, and again, I didn't like how it would turn out. You then said yourself that Muffin is on the right track. Subjectively, from my point of view, if we were to go ahead with with plan I would be betting that Hoopla isn't scum trying to pull an epic gambit, and I'd *also* be betting that it works. I'm not a good gambler, I'm not ready to take those risks.

Ok, you ready for a curveball? Here's the deal. I continue to play at MafiaScum because I like the people here. I don't actually want to be a wet blanket and spoil your fun, Hoopla. I'm also interested, in an objective way, in how the setup can be broken - I'd like to start modding and creating my own setups, eventually. It will be a lot of fun for you and I and everyone here to throw caution to the wind and see how this works out.

So let me throw my hat into this ring. I'll throw in for the massclaim. I'll consider this game from an objective point of view, and if Hoopla is scum, well, I'll admit that I gave her the game. If not, and we pull this off, it'll be fun and a really neat advancement in the Mafia state-of-the-art.

[swankidelic]

Here's a summary for clarity's sake. The massclaim divides the game into three parties: a group of PR claims, a group of VT claims, and a group of no claims.

The Detective, Hider and Hider Tracker obviously go in the PR group - but not the Vigilante!
The VT group is a bunch of players who claim they're VT. We should only lynch from this group.
The no-claim group is where the Vigilante hides. It selects its targets only from this group.

So the PR pool are kinda sorta confirmed townies (any counterclaims can be sorted out). The game then turns into a kind of a race for town to outkill the scum.

The scum can systematically nightkill the confirmed-town PR group first, but that leaves the Vig alone to help town catch up in the killing race.
Or, the scum can try hunt for the Vig in the no-claim group, but that leaves a bunch of confirmed-town PRs available to root them out.

The way that this is organized takes the typical decisions the scum make in a game and makes them very, very difficult. Every decision the scum make comes at a cost - either leaving PRs alive or forcing themselves into a tight rhetorical corner.

There are some kinks that Hoopla, Muffin and DarkFlashlight are working out, namely what the Hider should do. The Hider has the ability to upset the race in the scum's favor, so he and the Vig need to be super smart about their plays.

[swankidelic]

I like the plan. It's really clever. I think it tilts the game in town's favor a significant amount - probably on the order of having a 5th PR. It won't win us the game, but it's a serious leg-up.

The Vig should always kill from its no-claim pool. It defeats the purpose of that pool otherwise. I think the Hider should remain autonomous and flexible, maybe consider recommendations from the peanut gallery, but I'm not sure if there's a universally optimal strategy for it.

[swankidelic]

P-edit: DF has pinpointed the flaw I saw earlier: if all scum hide in the no claim pool, it's much easier for them to find the vig. And if they get lucky and find it while being mostly in the VT pool, we're fucked.

Well the consolation there is that it leaves our PR pool pristine. Even if there's a lucky NK on N1, we have three conftown PRs to work with.

That may be the imperative for the Det/Psych and Hider on N1, to focus on the no-claim/vig pool.

I'm just

dying

to post a POOLS CLOSED macro.

[swankidelic]

I also meant to say:

Swank, why the 180 about liking the plan?

Well, at first, I just wanted to see how it played out regardless of my interest in winning. See post #58. Then when Hoopla posted

If they go all in the lynch pool, they essentially guarantee one of them being lynched today. If they all go in the vig pool, they essentially guarantee being vigged N1. The only rational play here is for scum to split 2 and 1 across the two groups.

that little lightbulb above my head clicked on. It's all about making scum sacrifice rhetoric options. Seeing Hoopla and Muffin discuss it convinced me. It's clever, well thought-out and internally consistent, not some puffery that requires a leap of faith. (Just like Hoopla said. mmm-hmm-hmm that's good crow!)

[swankidelic]

I never said it should be stalled, but I am asking for a summary not of the game but of a plan I wasn't around for during it's conception.... Also, the only reason I even ask and refuse to read is because I am against this plan. I am giving you guys the chance to pitch this to me because as it stands I will not be participating.

So, yeah, it's a complex plan, and it took me a while to digest it, too. I wanted to write that summary as clearly and concisely as possible. There's some really smart basic ideas that, if you understand them, makes all the rewordings make sense. Lemme try again:

The PR pool is for town confirmations. If scum counterclaim these, it's disprovable.
The lynch/VT pool is to make sure the vig doesn't get lynched.
The vig/no-claim pool is to give the vig a place to hide from scum nightkills.

Scum can claim (or not claim) whatever they want, but they'll be sorted into one of these pools. Each one comes with its own risk: scum in the VT pool have to worry about getting lynched, and scum in the no-claim pool have to worry about getting vigged.

If that doesn't do it for you, well, feel free to scumhunt, we still need discussion to drive this game.

[swankidelic]

andrew and Quilford are awful sheeps.

Also,

okay i understand that plan.
/agree

i hate walls, i will only skim walls.

How did you come to understand Hoopla's plan if you only skim walls?

[swankidelic]

Counterclaims can be disproved, at least by the results of their night actions. Coordinated night actions can be more effective. It's actually a weak move for scum, because it increases the chance of two counterclaimers of being scum to 1/2, up from like 1/3 or 1/6 if they hide in the other pools. It also telegraphs to the town how many scum are in the PR pool.

glowball, your signature sums you up perfectly. I was courteous and patient when I posted my summaries but you completely ignored them, and focused on the people who were attacking you. I don't mean any offense by this, but I'm willing to bet you don't really care much about the plan, you're just rebelling for rebellion's sake. Am I way off-base there?

On another topic, I thought we were going to massclaim at the end of D1? I guess we need time to sort out potential counterclaims?

[swankidelic]

Well, good, I'm glad we're on the same page =) You're right, the plan deserves skepticism. I was skeptical at first, I agree that a D1 massclaim is a weird thing to ask. After looking at Hoopla's plan, though, I believe it'll work out regardless of her intentions. If not, it's an interesting thing to try. You're free to come to your own conclusions, though.

Also keep in mind that proceeding with the plan doesn't mean we won't scumhunt as per usual - the plan relies on scumhunting and makes scumhunting easier. We won't give anyone a free pass on day one.

[swankidelic]

To be frank, glowball, if you don't go with the plan, you'll probably get lynched. Take from it what you will, but remember that Mafia is just a goofy little game.

[swankidelic]

If you don't cooperate, we'll be forced to abandon the plan and scumhunt as normal. At that point your odds of survival are grim.

So, yeah, there was a total flurry of discussion between Hoopla and Muffin at the start. That doesn't mean your input isn't valuable. It totally is. Then, I think Amrun was a little harsh. It started with her exasperation and the conversation took a nosedive. Pretty much everyone else, though, has in fact treated you with respect, behaving rationally and inviting you to criticize the plan.

If people apologize to you, will you play along?

[swankidelic]

FoS: Oversoul - technically not a Disney movie.

Mary Poppins. If the Sherman Brothers' song Feed the Birds doesn't make you cry, you are obv a terminator sent back through time to kill Sarah Connor.

Re: glowball: her resistance to Hoopla's Scummy Pool Plan looks like a personality flaw. She's so irrationally stubborn it looks like there's a motive bigger than this game. What makes her look scummy, though, is that she keeps insisting that town is a "team" and that we're not playing as a team because we want to proceed with a plan. That's so ridiculously backwards. The only "team" is the scum team, and to a townie, everyone else is a potential enemy. Coordinating on a plan is vastly more team-oriented than normal townie play.

tl;dr If glowball wants to play on a team, she should cooperate with the plan. Otherwise, all this "team" talk is a bid for sympathy.

[swankidelic]

p-edit: Yeah, I guess so. I genuinely apologize if that was over the line, glowball. Point is, her resistance to Hoopla's plan is a null tell to me, but she's done other things that implicate her.

Yeah, I made my random vote before I started posting the other stuff. I

knew

someone would make a fuss out of that, which is why I said RVS vote. It was simply random.

I'm still suspicious of Muffin but I don't want to go around making serious votes for people until I have enough evidence. The game just started, and apparently we already need a replacement. So until everyone posts enough for valid reads, I don't see the point on making serious votes.

I was looking at jakesh v. LittleGrey when this post jumped out at me again. LG is comfortable tossing random votes around, but doesn't want to commit to a "real" vote; looks like LG is overly concerned with keeping her vote record clean.

It also bugs me, in general, when people call their vote an RVS vote before a lynch. It's like, they want to show participation, but are trying to cover their tails if they get called out for it.

[swankidelic]

What are your scumreads, Hoopla?

[swankidelic]

UNVOTE: Quilford
VOTE: LittleGrey

And FoS on DarkFlashlight. It's absurd to suggest that you want to wait for more posts on D1. We at least have some RVS content.

DarkFlashlight might conceivably have a legitimate excuse, but LG is worse for not having any reads *at all*.

Not to give the lurkers a pass. They're just as, if not more, remiss.

[swankidelic]

Ever since Glow's mention of the possibility of Hoopla being scum and orchestrating this plan, it's got me nervous about the Hoopla slot.

I really wish you'd explain to me the benefit to scum

this plan would have though Glow, because I just don't see it. And I've tried to imagine it.

Eh, what? Is that a typo or a slip?

What's your read of glow, neil?

[swankidelic]

and...please

Hahaha, nice.

neil, I reread that line a couple of times. I guess I just wasn't parsing it correctly.

And... momentum's dropped again. I'm not sure if I like that. I'm starting to get paranoid that Hoopla and jakesh are scumbuddies, and they're stalling a lynch....

[swankidelic]

And FoS on DarkFlashlight. It's absurd to suggest that you want to wait for more posts on D1. We at least have some RVS content.

I think you misunderstood. First of all, RVS consisted of like 5 votes, so there really wasn't much there, but regardless, I didn't mean I don't have any scumpicks, I meant I'm not going to call out the three people I think might be scum when there are four that I can't read from yet. All three could technically be in that pile, making choosing rather futile.

So my point is that we should be playing a Mafia game in addition to trying to enact Hoopla's plan. I really don't like the fact that discussion seems to always deteriorate to "post jake post!" after a page or so. People play Mafia games with no starting information, and with lurkers, so the presence of a cooperative strategy and a lurker shouldn't damper normal Mafia play. In fact, since Hoopla's plan isn't algorithmic, we still need nice, juicy D1 content to refer to. If people have weak or even no reads after an RVS bootstrap, we should still be pressuring people to get those reads as if this was a regular Mafia game.

Unwillingness to vote and lynch, though, is crippling; that's why I'm starting to get paranoid about Hoopla.

[swankidelic]

Wow, you call people out on letting momentum drop and everyone posts walls.

On Oversoul v. neil. I've been suspicious of neil from the beginning, and I don't think they're both on the same side. My gut doesn't like Oversoul, but I think that's just his smugness.

I'm not sure I like Quilford's wall. I don't think his approach is effective, I'm not sure if looking at a person's iso granularly instead of holistically is useful. It appears that he's just rating posts on a scale of 1 to 5 and summing them up to produce a scum score or something. Looks fluffy

[swankidelic]

Woops, meant to hit preview.

Looks like he's showing a lot of work only to jump on the LittleGrey wagon.

[swankidelic]

Why do you want Amrun in the lynch pool, though?

The way he gauges the scumminess of each individual post. Some posts are singularly self-evident like that, but not a lot; in my experience I have to judge content in situ to get a reading.