Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Sotty7]

I wouldn't have if you weren't all "woe is me, lynch me to help town" before that, sotty.

How does that make my DH vote opportunistic? Was I supposed to give up completely and vote myself?

I'm still going to scum hunt until I die, even if I am fine with being the first lynch.

[Sotty7]

Wait we didn't get roles PMs only alignments.

HEY BUTTONS CAN I HAS MY ROLE PM NOW.

This seriously can't be true.

[singersigner]

At this point, I don't care if the wagon's on me, I'll hammer it. I just want this day phase over and done with.

^Town.

DH, as scum, you would've known that hammering yourself loses the game so none of this

I'm not self-hammering, either. Not the town win-conish thing to do, so someone hammer me.

crap.

[singersigner]

Wait we didn't get roles PMs only alignments.

HEY BUTTONS CAN I HAS MY ROLE PM NOW.

This seriously can't be true.

You can ask Buttons if you want...

[Sotty7]

Amrun, did you get a PM from the mod when you replaced in?

EDIT: I doubt he can answer.

[DemonHybrid]

At this point, I don't care if the wagon's on me, I'll hammer it. I just want this day phase over and done with.

^Town.

DH, as scum, you would've known that hammering yourself loses the game so none of this

I'm not self-hammering, either. Not the town win-conish thing to do, so someone hammer me.

crap.

And self-hammering as town modkills me. What's your point?

[singersigner]

Actually, as far as I know, it doesn't. Especially not in this case when there's a very specific pro-town reason for needing a flip and needing it now.

I could be wrong as I've never seen Buttons in action with regards to modkills, but I've seen town do it and not get modkilled.

I can imagine how it might look as scum, though, you know, losing and all.

[singersigner]

Actually, wtf,

vote: DemonHybrid

I don't buy your whole "woe is me I can't hammer myself because that's against my 'town' wincon" act...oh hey, scum, it's apparently against YOUR wincon.

[Sotty7]

Unvote

...For the moment.

[Sotty7]

Actually, wtf,

vote: DemonHybrid

I don't buy your whole "woe is me I can't hammer myself because that's against my 'town' wincon" act...oh hey, scum, it's apparently against YOUR wincon.

This is such a crap reason to vote DH FYI.

It's also noted how

quickly

you put DH back at L-1 after I pick up on a glaring problem with your faketwilight posts.

Suddenly I am very very gun shy.

[singersigner]

I thought he was hammered already. Why would I vote him?

[singersigner]

I've been saying he's my number one suspect for a while now, so...

[singersigner]

I've been saying he's my number one suspect for a while now, so

it's funny that you think that's the only reason I'm voting him.

ftfm

[Sotty7]

Okay, what are your other reasons?

[Amrun]

No, it's the same for me. No role pm.

[Sotty7]

Okay thanks Amrun. Does slightly take away my initial strong feeling.

Still singer, I just read your ISO like five times. I see no reason for DH scum outside this no self hammer crap. You have made me very nervous, I want to see some details.

[LlamaFluff]

Spend most of the day running errands and you guys do a loco-explosion...

Im not sure what to make of this game right now, as something is just not adding up, at all. I mean... now we have had two people who obviously have no idea what is going on, one either running a "no pm" or probably is town for it gambit while the other still occasionally seems to miss the setup.

I continue to be torn on Sotty even though I really like her for scum, most of the resigned type posts seem to come from a similar mindset of ones that I have been putting out there so that makes me uncomfortable. DH I dunno, I mean that hammer holy crap that "hammer" gives me heeby geebies all over. I mean, its textbook correct play from scum (and town) to do that, but again. Look at the DH wagon members when it was serious over time: mith, Sotty, Equinox, Chris, IP and Thor. DH has been on Sevei this entire time. That leaves a grand total of Amrun with outlier of marble (yes me from outsider standpoint inb4mith). I just do... not... see it. I mean damn.

I need to think on Sotty still though something suddenly feels bad here, I think that sticking with my vote is right here given that Sevei has some legitimately odd interactions with DGB, and really works with nearly all of my high scum picks.

@Sotty - Compramise the Sevei/Singer lynch? If you think DH is town I think its the only way to not have that lynch occur.

[Thor665]

Thor just wants to bag me. I'm starting to realize that and coming to terms with it.

Not sure if innuendo...

I take back when I said you were coasting "all game". You actually pushed pretty well against DGB from the start. It's day two you have started to coast. You being on or off my wagon has nothing to do with the fact you gave up on making cases awhile back.

My case on DGB was 'I hate her playstyle and can't read it, and meta from my team buddies'
It's not like my cases have taken a dramatic downturn in expansiveness.

[Sotty7]

Let me think about it Fluff. I need to get back to reading the game again as well seeing as I closed that tab as soon as I thought DH was lynched.

I was tempted to throw my vote on singer right away when I read her twilight posts because I remembered the PM being very clear all but one scum needed to be lynched. But then seeing as she was replacing a teammate maybe role PMs weren't sent and Amrun backed that up.

Still the "he's been my number one suspect for awhile now" seems to be pretty extremely misrepping her time in thread. Combined with the terribad reasoning for DH I just got very squimish.

I'm going to eat supper and do some thinking.

[Sotty7]

I guess the difference is Thor, I felt you were trying to lynch DGB. I never really felt you push me apart when I initially pushed you on my vote. Which is kinda backwards, no?

[singersigner]

1. Sevei had a strong scum read on him from the beginning.
2. I feel like DH prides himself on his scum game.
3. RVS vote let the wagon gain a little too much momentum.
4. He's on DGB's scum list.
5. He's had one of the leading wagons so far and it seemed to have stalled with people easily finding ways off of it.
6. His shotty reasoning to vote for me (like I alluded to earlier by looking at my wagon)
7. His reaction to his "hammer" seemed far from genuine.

Preview Edit:
I'm honestly too tired to read that right now...
Preview Edit AGAIN:
AHGSDflijksdbgnveiaudf

stoposting

lzjfdkbva;dkufgh

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama...by not even considering what roles other teams have gotten, you're taking a gambit of your own. You seem oddly afraid of someone (Equinox/Sotty) allowing someone (mith) who's been playing a decently strong town game, assuming they're "confirmed." In this game, the odds are more than just a 25% chance of getting scum; you have to factor in certain teams choosing certain players to play out those scum roles, and how unbalanced the team game would be if your team pulled any more than two scum

Engineer in me must argue math.....

Now, while the chance of a team being any number of scum is (3/13)^X, the chance of any player being scum is 3/13.

This means that odds of a team having (approx)
0 scum = 35%
1 scum = 42%
2 scum = 14%
3 scum = 5%
4 scum = ~1%

That means there is a 55% chance a team drew at least 3 scum roles, and as we apparently already saw, a 97% chance a team drew at least 2 scum roles. While you may think this is nice, you still need to play the odds, since if each player is assigned to a random game on a team and then roles are drawn, there is a 25%(ish) chance that each player is scum independantly. Like flipping heads or tails. 10 heads in a row doesnt mean the odds are better for a tails next.

The arguement that people would try hard to pick roles also ignores the secondary fact that people would pick specific games. For example there is ZERO way I would be in the dram game. I would rather have not played at all in an instant. Close to the same with the PYP game, I just dislike that type of role heavy play so pushed hard to get this game before roles even came out.

Nothing can be ruled out with math in this one. As I already showed chances are good there is a +50% scum team out there, heck its around a 12% chance there is an all scum team.

[mith]

Meh, working 8 to 6 is going to make keeping up in this game a pain.

DemonHybrid: Why did you think you were at L-1? Who did you think was voting for you?

(Trying to work out whether DemonHybrid genuinely believed he was at L-1 when he was calling for a hammer, and if so whether he would bluff there. I'm inclined to think not on the latter - calling for hammer feels like a stronger town-tell than the earlier lynch-bargaining-while-not-under-pressure that LlamaFluff and Sotty were doing. Not so sure on the former.)

Equinox/singersinger: LlamaFluff is right that you shouldn't rule me out based on the number of revealed scum on my team; unless alignments in the four games

weren't

assigned independently (and we have no reason to believe that) my team's spot in this game had the same probabilities as everyone other team's. See also: 518. Right conclusion, bad reasoning.

[DemonHybrid]

D2VC17:

Sevei (4): Llamarble, Thor, DH, LlamaFluff
DH (3): mith, Sotty, Chris
Llamafluff (2): Equinox, IP
mith (1): Amrun,
Llamarble (1): Sevei


Not Voting:

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Deadline with banked time is the 16th, deadline without using any banked time was the 9th.

Sotty unvoted and then RE-voted me. I missed the fact that the unvote was an unvote off of me, and still thought I was at 3 votes for some reason. All I saw was a Sotty and then Equinox vote and then posted my peace.

singer's vote on me is absolutely horrible. The fact that you and Chris questioned my lynch compels me to apologize to you and him for suspecting you so hardcore.

My vote isn't coming off of singer.

[Equinox]

Okay, so...

I'm not comfortable with a LlamaFluff or Sotty7 lynch anymore, and that started when I moved onto DemonHybrid. The reason I didn't say so outright was because I wanted to see Chris B, DemonHybrid, or Llamarble react first, and two of those three have reacted already and

Llamarble probably needs a prod from his team

because I'm impatient. My thinking here was what mith said earlier in the day; if someone sounds defeatist, it's probably a town tell. Scum know this, so I wouldn't have accepted it as a town tell right away. What I was looking for was more blood lust to see how 1) the wagonees themselves would react, and 2) the players surrounding them would react.

I'm missing a data point from Llamarble, but I say screw that because I'm a LOT more interested in seeing blood, least of all because I have a few suspicions of how tonight is going to run down if we mislynch today, and I want to jump to that as soon as possible. If I'm not here tomorrow, then assume that I had nothing further to say. (If I do get NKed, I'd be careful about automatically assuming it's due to my reads; I have a pretty strong team with me, and they're all free right now.)

Something else I wanted to observe was to rule out pairs based on the LlamaFluff and Sotty7 wagons. I have the list for LlamaFluff that I drew up while I was on campus, but I don't have Sotty7's; after this post, I'll go look at the wagon movements and post the lists afterward. Unfortunately, the data isn't as comprehensive as I'd have liked, and that is due to my error of moving to DemonHybrid prematurely. Still useful later in the game, I hope.

@Equi...I can honestly say I have no idea what you're talking about...

I'll just say it. I have two other names that I am reasonably sure are on your team. With apologies, I am going to go reveal one because I think it's fairly obvious and it'll help me get my point across: If you had chosen quadz08, that would have essentially guaranteed that your slot was town because he doesn't do so well at talking himself out of a lynch when he's scum. You, on the other hand, showed me in Mafia MetaMafia that you can sound like town genuinely thinking through things when you're actually scum, and I said as much while that game was running. It was just an observation; my verdict on you would have to depend on other factors.

Fucking lynch sotty. That was so opportunistic and right after her "lynch me first; it will help town" resignation.

Don't know about opportunistic, as I don't know off the top of my head if Sotty7 has ever been on DemonHybrid's case or not, but what you're describing here isn't a scum tell. In fact, if she simply rolled over and let herself die without a fight, that'd be playing against her win con, town or scum.

And self-hammering as town modkills me. What's your point?

Why do you say that?

Im not sure what to make of this game right now, as something is just not adding up, at all. I mean... now we have had two people who obviously have no idea what is going on, one either running a "no pm" or probably is town for it gambit while the other still occasionally seems to miss the setup.

Do you think it has something to do with you mentioning it earlier in the day?

Nothing can be ruled out with math in this one. As I already showed chances are good there is a +50% scum team out there, heck its around a 12% chance there is an all scum team.

Hmm... I'll go take a look at the list of teams and work out possibilities based on [REDACTED] and see what I come up with. mith has appeared town to me for the most of the game, but I guess I'll have to take a look with the amount of people yelling mith-scum from rooftops all over. (Whether or not I actually do... well... )

PS: I'm finally at the point where I'm willing to lynch whomever. Right now, out of the current wagons, I'd be most willing to lynch singersigner. I'd rather not entertain lynching DemonHybrid, LlamaFluff, or Sotty7 at this point, but if any of those wagons swell to L-1 and there is no chance of singersigner eating rope, I'm hammering.