Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Llamarble]

The wagon on Sevei is absolute shit.

*cackles*

I've read but don't really have posting time tonight.

[Chris B]

Can't believe it took me this long to notice that the ID boxes have gender on them.

While I'm in agreement with a lot of what Amrun says, I'm missing the argument that Sotty is town. I'm willing to hear a counter argument before I vote.

I also firmly believe DGB got bussed.

[Amrun]

Meaning you want me to make a towncase on Sotty? I've said all I'm going to say on that matter barring another flip.

[Sotty7]

While I'm in agreement with a lot of what Amrun says, I'm missing the argument that Sotty is town. I'm willing to hear a counter argument before I vote

lolwut?

This is the first I'm hearing that you find me scummy. How about you make a case on that instead?

[Equinox]

While I'm in agreement with a lot of what Amrun says, I'm missing the argument that Sotty is town. I'm willing to hear a counter argument before I vote.

I'd like to hear why you disagree with the arguments for Sotty7-scum pushed thus far first.

I also firmly believe DGB got bussed.

Do you believe that both scum buddies bussed her or that one was on and one was off? (If you've stated this already, feel free to point me back to it.)

[Equinox]

EBWOP:

I'd like to hear why you disagree with the arguments for Sotty7

-town

pushed thus far first.

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC7:

DH (2): mith, Sotty
Sevei (2): Thor, Equinox
Llamarble (1): Sevei
mith (1):, Amrun
Sotty (1): LlamaFluff
Amrun (1): Llamarble
LlamaFluff (1): IP

Not Voting: DH,Chris,

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[Equinox]

WHAT IS THIS RAINBOW VOTE COUNT ON DAY 2 OF WHITE FLAG WITH A SCUM LYNCH

WE NEED WAGONS AND BLOODLUST

(Okay, I will admit that I'm contributing to the problem, but I really do think we need to agree on something here and then push that wagon because that's the best way to milk White Flag for all the awesomeness it has to offer. Seriously. And I'll figure out what to do with my vote when I'm done with this mega-analysis.)

[LlamaFluff]

So I guess a little side point, but encoragement for the Sevei wagon not to start up again...

The only two people who really work with Sevei at this point are DH and mith. I really dont see anyone else actually as a partner unless there is some REALLY reckless scum play going on. Third pick there would be Sotty, but if Sevei is scum, I dont see it not being with mith/DH.

Now, I think that Amrun is more likely then not town for actually not understanding the setup completely. Thats made obvious right here

DH: mith/DH does not feel like scum on scum. Gets minor scumpoints if Llamarble flips scum, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

I think if Amrun was following along scum-Klazam, she would have realized scum loses with one more scum flip. It *could* happen from either alignment, but I see mistakes about that sort of thing coming from VT players more than coming from scum players, who tend to read roles closer.

[Thor665]

How about this to rattle the boat?

Unvote: Sevei
Vote: Sotty7

[mith]

Amrun:

Re: My case on DH. I wasn't attacking DH for attacking LlamaFluff, but rather for indirectly defending Equinox/pushing IP with the "If you're picking on Equinox, why not go after IP?" stuff. The deal with DH's omission (of an Equinox read) was that I didn't see the town-motivation in dancing around the subject, but could see possible scum motivations (one of which was Equinox-buddy, yes, but the other was merely that he was attempting to push forward with a promising mislynch on IP, who was at L-2).

Your suggestion that I should have been attacking Equinox is an odd parallel to what bugged me about DH (suggesting LlamaFluff should be attacking IP). Anyway, I certainly wasn't ignoring Equinox, though there wasn't a lot to say about him while he wasn't posting for three days (during which my attention had turned to DGB).

Re: Stance on DGB, I've already covered this in response to LlamaFluff. "But he doesn't get into the specifics of it because most of the case actually DOES have substance - and mith himself changed his mind on this later." - Not on SocioPath's case; the problem with a large part of SocioPath's initial post is "DGB is contradicting herself" with a bunch of examples that didn't (and still don't) appear to be contradictions; Klazam elaborated on this later, in fact. What I did later change my mind on was my DGB read, which went from "mildly scummy" to "top two, and DH clearly isn't getting lynched". There's no fencesitting or fabrication here; just scumhunting.

(FWIW, and with the usual disclaimers about self-meta and WIFOM... I've never been a fan of bussing, whether here or offline. IIRC, in my last game as scum I didn't so much as vote for a buddy until lylo, and then only because said buddy decided to try bussing me. I can't imagine being anything other than even less inclined to bus in a White Flag game. I'm sure my own views on bussing are partly responsible for my thinking that it's so likely at least one scum is off-wagon; I don't see what the scum would think to gain by joining a scum lynch so early.)

"I also should add that mith's insistence we look outside the wagon for scum is strange, and considering how I think he's scum who bussed late, scummy." - Confirmation bias much? My "insistence" is scummy because you think I'm scum?

---

Amrun's bold entrance does lead me to the following: I don't think Amrun is scum

unless

it's with DemonHybrid. I don't see the motivation for her as scum with anyone else - at best, I get lynched and she looks real bad tomorrow, and at worst it draws her negative attention nowish.

[DemonHybrid]

And you have such a strong scumread on me, so are you assuming Amrun is scum then?

[DemonHybrid]

For right now (and I'll explain more if it's asked of me):

Amrun's replacement reads off as extremely strong. I'm not sure what to make of it, or her defense of me.
Llama's explanation that "Sevei and Llamarble are scumreads independently" was very weird.
I'm pretty okay with Sotty's suspicion and tunneling on me. She's using a lot of meta but it looks very genuine.
mith's tunneling, on the other hand, is bad. He's being very cautious with what he's saying and things look like elaborate future-lynch setups, such as the "Amrun can only be scum with DH" stuff that he put down. I'm not liking it.
After reading Sevei a lot more, I'm not comfortable with her lynch. Her attack on DGB just seems a little too real.

I still stand firmly by the theory that 1 scum was on DGB's wagon, 1 off. There's the problem of on-wagon/off-wagon probabilities. THAT'S why I'm having trouble finding a vote; most of the really scummy people today so far have been ON DGB's wagon but I'm looking back to probabilities. However, counting my scumreads with the amount of people on and off DGB's wagon, Amrun, ChrisB, LlamaFluff and Llamarble were off the wagon. All 4 of those slots have had scummy actions attributed to them (as well as townish actions). But at the same time, so has Thor and mith, who were on the wagon. I'm alright with IP, Sevei and sotty being solid town reads at this point, and because of that,

Vote: mith

, even though the greater probability is TECHNICALLY voting off the wagon.

As for the questions for me: DGB is a moderately hard person to read; I think IP asked me that. I didn't want to rush into a vote but you know that DGB's lurkiness really set off the scum radar for me for the most part. She's about a 7 out of 10 on a hard to read scale in comparison to other people. This is my first game with her, however, and the playerlist is very strong, so that might have a LOT of influence on my uneasiness of her; I'm very uneasy with a lot of peoples' lynches, as they have a lot of town AND scum motivation behind what they've been doing.

So, I would say at the moment that mith, LlamaFluff, ChrisB, Llamarble and Thor are my top 5 lynch candidates in that order. Amrun's really a conditional, but I'm not going to commit a read to that and speculate future lynches like mith did. Amrun and Klazam's spots by pure analysis get a town read from me at the moment; mith's flip, if the game continues, would have me look back at Amrun/Klazam's posts and re-evaluate my read on her.

[DemonHybrid]

Also, ChrisB has had 15 posts and I see a lack of hounding him for that from mith. His last comment was "Well...uh, DGB probably got bussed. And I don't get the sotty read", which has been talked about a lot since then.

Another future conditional mith has posted is a "Chris is town if DH is scum" post. He seems to like ending his arguments on that note a LOT.

[DemonHybrid]

No, Equinox asked me that question. Apologies.

And despite my vote, if anyone wants a Llama or ChrisB lynch (and especially ChrisB, but I put Llama as 2nd because if mith dies and the game is still going, then I'd probably doubt that pairing depending on my reread), I'm alright with that; moreso ChrisB than Llama at the moment, because the way I see things now, mith's notification of ChrisB's lurky and scummy behavior but unwillingness to explore that really shows a connection between the two.

[Equinox]

DemonHybrid, I've got a couple more questions:

1) Chris B slipped earlier that he thought scum would have corrected their buddies' behaviors during the day, and we don't have day talk in this game. What do you think this says about his alignment?

2) You've been onto mith since the start of the day and haven't relented; why did you wait so long before voting him?

Thor665, an excuse to better admire your charming beard: What are your current reads of Sevei and Sotty7?

[InflatablePie]

Content pushed back to tomorrow/tomorrow night depending on how much sleep I get.

Might be V/LA from Tues-Thurs of next week, I'll keep you guys posted.

[Equinox]

Last post and then I'm letting this thread breathe for 8 hours.

Unvote

I'm pushing my analysis (yes, again) because I'd like to sleep. It's getting done because I actually worked on quite a bit today, soooo I'm not just blowing a bunch of air. I'll figure out what to do with my vote before the end of tomorrow, whether it's to join a wagon or spark a new one.

Both scum were not off the wagon. No way.

Which do you think is more likely: Both scum bussing DrippingGoofball, or one scum bussing and one scum not?

I'm also going to follow up on this from InflatablePie...

Keep in mind, IIRC, wasn't Marble the wagon opposite to DGB on D1?

Am I the only one that finds this a point in his favor?

Below are two separate snapshots of when each wagon was at its peak:

DrippingGoofball (7) - SocioPath, Thor665, InflatablePie, Equinox, Sotty7, mith, Sevei

Llamarble (4) - Sotty7, LlamaFluff, Sevei, Chris B

If my vote on the DrippingGoofball wagon is any indication, I'd guess that the third vote activated the snowball. Still, I think the Llamarble wagon grew to a significant enough size; furthermore, my spreadsheet seems to point it being a wagon that was formed simultaneously with the DrippingGoofball wagon. I'm inclined to agree with InflatablePie here and say that this points to Llamarble being an unlikely scum buddy to DrippingGoofball; no matter what LlamaFluff says about the power of a bus increasing the earlier it happens, I would be insanely scared to play in sudden death mode for the next 4 days, and I'd expect even the best and ballsiest of scum to feel the same way. Thus, they'd at least try and see if they could get someone else lynched first.

I'll note that Sotty7's vote on Llamarble was made before SocioPath created the DrippingGoofball wagon, so her vote there isn't too incriminating, in my view. I stand by my logic earlier on Day 1 about her not attacking me to screw up the game state for town. Still, I guess I'll go take a look and see what the hubbub is about in the morning.

I'm actually really tempted to join InflatablePie and wagon up LlamaFluff, but I wouldn't be able to articulate why beyond "GUT!" and that small thing above... and I'm actually not comfortable with having only that much for a Day 2 wagon.

Yeah, I'll just come back when I know what the heck I'm doing.

[LlamaFluff]

no matter what LlamaFluff says about the power of a bus increasing the earlier it happens, I would be insanely scared to play in sudden death mode for the next 4 days, and I'd expect even the best and ballsiest of scum to feel the same way. Thus, they'd at least try and see if they could get someone else lynched first.

You are thinking WAY to short term here for what scum would do, you need to plan for the late game as early as possible, its something I do near constantly and I feel is one of the reasons my scum record is one of the better ones on the site. You have a partner who is getting a whole lot of pressure, and a wagon that isnt going away. Apart from this, you have a few of the more vocal players showing suspicion of them, and most others have at least a hint of a scum read on that player.

They arent going to make it the necessary number of days for a clean sweep. MAYBE they would make lylo, but smart money says that flip is coming. Now, knowing that, I see no reason why scum would be trying to lob up other wagons in hope that things actually stick. Lets say that marble got lynched day one followed by DGB, who is going to be the people who get slammed starting D3? The ones who pushed marble over DGB. Lets say you bus day one, even with one off the wagon (im going to just pull Sotty-Chris as an example). Now we have a lurkerish player off the wagon, and someone on the wagon. The player on the wagon is now looking at a mislynch pool of others not on the wagon +- one or two on the wagon. Even if they get pulled into "possible scum" discussion themselves (if good bus they wouldnt), they are looking at a large pool to lynch from. If the bus was good, scum basically has a six-ish player pool to lynch from with only one scum in it, not an impossible task at all.

No reason for scum not to bus if they actually stop to think about it in this game. Getting one member in a strong position gives a high chance of winning, since too strong of a defense from scum early on can essentially mean they lose the game when the first member goes down, and that is a much bigger risk in my book. WIFOM aside, I would have bussed hard once it became obvious DGB was a day one/two lynch (may 18th-ish), its a risk im completely willing to take since if I came out in a good spot I can direct lynches away from a partner and not be brought up for it myself, a win-win.

[Sotty7]

How about this to rattle the boat?

Unvote: Sevei
Vote: Sotty7

I'm feeling betrayed. Why the shift to me?

[mith]

DemonHybrid: You should take a course in logic. "Amrun scum implies DemonHybrid scum" is not equivalent to "DemonHybrid scum implies Amrun scum". I am saying the former. There are several possible scumbuddies for you (LlamaFluff, Llamarble, Sevei at the top, in that order), but it doesn't really matter when we can just lynch you.

You keep saying I'm tunneling. I'm not. I have been voting for you most of the game because you've been my top suspect most of the game, but I have not been ignoring everyone else (

that

would be tunneling).

Setting up future lynches? If, by some miracle and despite the constant attempts to distract from your wagon, I am able to get you lynched, and you are in fact scum,

we win the game

. There is no future lynch. If I get you lynched and you are town,

I am saying Amrun is town too

- that's the exact opposite of setting up a lynch.

Will wait to respond re: my Chris B stance until you answer Equinox's question.

[mith]

*There are several possible scumbuddies for you other than Amrun.

[Amrun]

Mith:

Can you point me to somewhere you previously discussed DH being scum independent of Equinox in relation to his omission of a full read on her?

As for the second point, I did not mean you should have been voting Equinox over DH. You do express rather strong suspicion f her, but almost in a throwaway manner. You attack DH for the supposed connection between Equinox/DH, and spend most of the day arguing with him about it, and yet I see not ONE question directed at Equinox or any specific statement about her play that she could respond to. This is a major thing in my eyes that leads me towards the case not feeling genuine. I think in a townie noticing the things in DH that you noticed would be approached differenty if you were town. There would have been more curiosity, and a questioning and discussion of Equinox would have been a natural extension of that. Instead, the attack read more like looking for somethig to nail DH with.

With the confirmation bias thing in that one comment, yes. I made no bones about it. But I'll explain more what I meant. It looks to me as if you are creating a false dichotomy: scum would be off the wagon, so we must lynch from this pool of players. Knowing who you are, and namely the being the creator of this set-up, your talks of theory have a lot of sway. It is possible that you have an entirely different theory of bussing in this set-up than me, but regardless of your own strategy, I think you would know that we must account for all styles of play. In short, I think you are using seductive but false reasoning to line up mislynches.

I think it's far more likely that at least one of the scum bussed. As it so happens, I suspect one person on the wagon and one off. I think it's a distraction to obsess about what scum would do, because people play scum in countless different ways. What we should be looking for HOW people got on or stayed off the wagon: was it scummy? What were their motivations?

(That last bit is also an answer for Equinox.)

DH: I go out of my way to defend you and then you call ChrisB scum. -.-

P-edit: I actually think you are tunneling.

[Thor665]

Thor665, an excuse to better admire your charming beard: What are your current reads of Sevei and Sotty7?

Scummy and not remotely as scummy - but the sane way to answer this with my voting is town and obv. scum lololololtrollol.
That said, our vote counts needed a kick in the pants, and Sotty hasn't been producing as much as I'd like her to if she wants me to keep defending her.

I'm feeling betrayed. Why the shift to me?

I feel betrayed, why aren't you being more awesome? I'll accuse you of lurking on top of it to make it more of a conventional scum accusation. We'll mix in a touch of PoE due to my desire to lynch on the DGB wagon and stated belief that someone bussed.

[mith]

Amrun: Other than the possibility that he omitted the read simply because he didn't actually

have

a read (i.e. wasn't genuinely scumhunting), in 215 I mentioned the possible conclusions I could draw from his omission (scum with Equinox, pushing mislynch on IP, or both).

I didn't ask anything of Equinox because I didn't have anything to ask her about. ~shrug~ Her response to my initial suspicion (87, before I'd caught up with the game and started in on DemonHybrid) was fine, even if I didn't totally buy it. After that, my bad feelings about her were more related to odd behaviour from other players than anything she was doing herself, and while I like to throw out comments about pairings early in the game to illicit reactions (and to note for later), I don't tend to rely on them much until I have some flips to work with (no doubt, that's part of why I find argument's like DH's - about the Equinox-IP pairing he thought LlamaFluff was suggesting - scummy).

(Also, keep in mind that when you say I spend "most of the day" arguing with DH, we're talking about two real-time days.)

I am not saying that the scum are both absolutely 100% off the wagon. What I am saying is that I find it extremely unlikely both scum are

on

the wagon (both because of bus theory, and because of strong town reads on some of those players - IP, Thor, Sotty), and given that the pool of suspects off wagon is now 4, and we have 4 tries to get this right...

Part of that feeling actually stems from me taking into account all styles of play (and specifically, the impression I have of the site meta): in the current game, bussing is almost

expected

of scum. Even the most well timed bus may not buy much town cred, so sacrificing a partner in a game with so little room for error would seem a foolish play for the scum. (Admittedly, part of why people are so wary of bussing is due to its prevalence, but I do think the setup would encourage scum to protect each other more than the norm.)