Battle for Olympus - Game Over!

[Iecerint]

I was actually on the verge of positing 1 scumteam earlier today because I couldn't put groups of you together, but I decided not to. So I don't find ooba's recognizing the possibility confusing or surprising. I hadn't noticed the rule, though.

[gandalf5166]

Hmmmm.... that makes the LC situation VERY confusing........ He could be the SK, but that would mean that something happened to chess's action.......

If anyone town affected chess, please claim as such now. You probably should have done it before, but you know.

Although I guess Nacho is the only one who hasn't claimed...... On the plus side, if LC flips SK, we know chess is town(unless of course Nacho IS the source of the problem)..........

[gandalf5166]

Hmmmm.... that makes the LC situation VERY confusing........ He could be the SK, but that would mean that something happened to chess's action.......

If anyone town affected chess, please claim as such now. You probably should have done it before, but you know.

Although I guess Nacho is the only one who hasn't claimed...... On the plus side, if LC flips SK, we know chess is town(unless of course Nacho IS the source of the problem)..........

Never mind lol. If he's scum, he could just be lying about his action >.> And while putting himself out there like that doesn't seem smart at a first glance, if he's on a large team he knows that LC has to be an SK, so we wouldn't think he was a partner.

[Shadow Dancer]

OK, forget the whole "no time" business - I can emergency switch any time.

Unvote. Vote ooba

@Gand: Conspiracy theories won't help you, you know...

[Iecerint]

I totally do not follow your logic. This is my recollection of what happened.

Gandalf redirects (LC -> Axel).
Chesskid blocks LC.
LC reports being blocked.
Axel dies.

Let's work out what's possible here re: CK and LC.

Both town: This means that someone else killed Axel (because CKtown).
CKscum: This means that CK undermined the LC wagon for no reason by claiming LCblock. Unlikely.
LCscum: This means that someone else killed Axel (because CKtown).
Scumfriends: CK defended LC from likely lynch. Possible.

OH I SEE.

So gandalf is proposing that one of the kills that wasn't the castration kill belongs to LCSK, and that CK blocked it?

[Iecerint]

Can someone explain this ooba wagon to me? It does not make sense to me at all.

[Iecerint]

Oh, I guess there was that BabySpice stuff. That stuff's sketchy. <_<

[Iecerint]

Anyway, gandalf, I think that's a big of a leap, namely because AGM protected about a million players yesterday.

AGM, are those last-until-gone shots, or last-one-night shots?

[gandalf5166]

So gandalf is proposing that one of the kills that wasn't the castration kill belongs to LCSK, and that CK blocked it?

No, I'm saying that something happened to chess's action. For some reason, it didn't work, or it didn't affect LC. Because the "someone else killed Axel" qualifier just doesn't seem possible to me.

[Iecerint]

Ah, OK. Like if LC is a night action-immune SK or something.

[Iecerint]

Except no, because he was redirected. <_<

So nevermind.

[gandalf5166]

I think it's more likely someone on the scumteam didn't want chess blocking one of them and did something. Heck, we've seen two renditions of where scum had an ability that also belonged to town, maybe they have a redirector.

[quadz08]

The ooba wagon is decent. Solid reasoning behind it, typically, but I'm pretty null on him, personally.

Gandalf is definitely the place to be still. ALL OF THE SCUMZ BELONG TO gandalf.

Please vote for him.

[gandalf5166]

ALL OF THE SCUMZ BELONG TO gandalf.

ALL OF YOUR SCUMZ ARE BELONG TO ME

[quadz08]

very good you got the reference we are so proud

[Charon]

The Official Vote Count

LOL U MAD?

gandalf5166 [4]

- MagnaofIllusion, LordChronos, AlmasterGM, chesskid3

LordChronos [3]

- ooba, gandalf5166, Iecerint

ooba [3]

- Nachomamma8, Gemini, Shadow Dancer

Not Voting [2]

- Gemini, Chronopie

With 12 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, June 6th, 2011, 10:00PM PST.

Deadline hath been moved 2 days.
Nacho is V/LA.
Chrono is LA.

[gandalf5166]

Anywho, I've read through the whole thingamajig. Today's lynch is pretty obviously stuck between gandy and LC. Based off of errors / slips / etc., Gandalf seems to be the choice for the lynch today. However, I plan to find the time to ISO both of them, etc.

You done this yet?

[AlmasterGM]

Anyway, gandalf, I think that's a big of a leap, namely because AGM protected about a million players yesterday.

AGM, are those last-until-gone shots, or last-one-night shots?

My super? It's three shots total. So last-until-gone.

[ooba]

"I do not oppose this lynch;" -> In context of your post above that, it reads "Well your points about gandalf are decent - so it's a viable lynch option" and the rest of my post which you cut out reads "but would like to figure stuff out before we go ahead with it"

Magna with single faction + SK, I think it is 4+1 tops.
Reasoning: Hated townie in a setup; plus daytalk - granted conditional daytalk - but always helps scum.
Iece, Gemini = Not egyptians.
AGM = Claimed doc = egyptians had one on their team
chess = Claimed proven RB = egyptians had one on their team but can't be sure of this as above; You can argue that mothrax might have claimed RB to put us off chess but my earlier read was that chess cannot be egyptian.

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Regarding 1474 -
Whether he was talking to Quadz or anybody else, doesn't dilute the point - This is how the conversation reads:
Quadz: "Hey. AGM is scummy - at least as much as mothrax is. Why aren't we lynching him?"
LC: "Don't like mothrax's lack of non contribution. (earlier in the post)" In response to quads - "AGM claimed doc. But here's a reason we could go AGM over mothrax"

"In fact Chronos eventually voted for Moth without really pursuing the Alma wagon."
Of course, he doesn't push it because you immediately shoot it down in your next post and Quadz backs off his AGM paranoia.
He never talked about L2 possibilities in his next posts after that; The only time he talks about mothrax again is after Conspiracy's botched claim when it was all but obvious Conspiracy was going to be lynched.

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Gemini- Could have shared that earlier. Would have saved me time thinking about this game.
And that motivation you stated is not logical. I go harping on second but choose to do a complete 180 close to deadline to bus LC when I-scum could have had a gandalf mislynch?
SD is more on the ball when he attributes me wanting to save gandalf as a possible scum motivation. (It's not true but it's at least logical)

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Gandalf, I've already shown you why "someone else killed Axel" qualifier is possible in 2260 (and in response to your counter argument - if it's an SK - he\she knows that the egyptians aren't dead). Stop being stupid.

[ooba]

Also, my full claim ..

Hermes, Greek God of Messengers and Thieves

- Already claimed my

Messenger

power -> Grant daytalk for all QuickTopics as the messenger of Olympus.
- Started the game with no normal power. My passive was in my normal slot as a placeholder.
- Super:

Psychopomp

-> Can choose a player; Upon their death I receive their normal power.

When I replaced in, CMAR had already chosen SB. Andrius said I was allowed to change it once from SB; I asked it be reset to nobody. Plan was to use the super on somebody when I was sure they would be lynched.
D1: Gandalf ended the day before I could use my super.
D2: Choose AV before the lynch. Received his normal:

Protection

: Can protect a player from one shot on them. Can't use it on myself.
N3: Protected Iece

[ooba]

ebwop: "N2: Protected Iece" rather

[gandalf5166]

An SK would never shoot for the primary scumgroup. He wants as many people as possible to die each night, and killing off the Egyptians is contrary to that.

[ooba]

I'll apologize because I got sidetracked with the two scum team theory. But I'll make up for wasting most of the day by finding out the last egyptian(s).

So I'll run you through my egyptian analysis now ..

Players: Iecerint, Chronopie, AGM, LordChronos, Gandalf, AGar, ShadowDancer, MoI, Chesskid, Gemini
- Iecerint, Gemini are not egyptian because they both gave us one egyptian each
- The Lynch 2 votes have the potential to tell us most about the possible egyptians. The basic psychology being with AV already busted, scum will really try not to lose another team mate here in L2. They will only pile on when it looks inevitable that a scum buddy has to claim.

Quadz (3)– ooba, Dekes, Gemini
LordChronos (1) - Chesskid
AGM (1) – MoI

Dekes (2)– AGar, ShadowDancer

Chesskid (1) - Gandalf
ooba (1) - Mothrax
Not voting (6) – Iecerint, Chronopie, AGM, Axelrod, Quadz, LordChronos

Agar, SD are voting Dekes. Definitely not egyptian.

Mothrax (4) – ooba, AGar, Dekes, Iecerint
Axelrod (5) - MoI, Gandalf, ShadowDancer, Gemini, LC
LC (1) - Chesskid,
AGar (1) - AGM
Iecerint (1) - AV
Not voting (3) – Axelrod, Chronopie, Mothrax

Now this is an informative snapshot. I've already mentioned this before but I expect at least one egyptian on the Axel wagon. Now AGM and chess wouldn't have wasted their votes if they were egyptians since piling in on Axel would have been better than random votes. Chess, AGM are not egyptians.

Which leaves: Chronopie (Not voting), LordChronos, Gandalf, MoI
- I'm willing to eliminate Chrono just on the basis of his normal and super. Granted, both powers could come with a rider that they cannot be used on a scumbuddy but it's unlikely. Plus he would have taken a more proactive role in getting Axel wagoned over mothrax instead of popping in, making random comments and escaping.
- Likewise with MoI. Play+Claim ..

---

You already have my LC ISO case.

Gandalf

The Hammer

Now I consider gandalf's hammer to be a move which could have much much better used if scum. But I'm trying to see if egyptian motivations can be ascribed here, so let's go ..
Now I spotted Dekes-Av links in 710 - Iece voted AV and we were started a mini wagon - BS wagon was dying down and while it looked like diddin would be the mislynch, there was always the possibility that we could drive it towards AV.
This quote in particular is telling - "But there ARE other people who could get lynched today that are better targets short term.". This preemptively sets up the "BS had to be killed anyway" view (Long term view since she was antitown and it had to be done anyway) and we also get a hint at his motivations for the move. ("other people who could be lynched today")

N1 night action

The way I read it.
- I can think of the scum team thinking Iece is the SK
-- After all AV voted Iece at the end of the day one. ("Willing to revote Diddin, but Iec's posting has been really scummy in the last few pages so.)
-- So did Dekes (Iecerint immediately being content with the claim on the nameclaim alone is ridiculous and scummy. Plus, #615 and #616 looks kinda staged.)
-- Therefore redirect possible SK to someone who isn't them
- Redirect town JK to AV because he cannot protect himself. The person in the scumteam people were most suspicious about were AV. Therefore most probable vig or cop candidate. A JK on AV takes care of both. (Cop inspect fails and kill would be protected due to JK)
This also explains the order in which he choose the actions. After all to the scum team, finding out who the SK is would be useful esp. if there is a redirector in the team.

Other damning stuff

- Gandalf does not mention AV, Dekes, mothrax even once during D1!! (That's 0 in 92 posts)
- Lynching Gemini in Gemini vs Dekes
- missing "ess" in the Goddess claim

---

Both strong cases on Gandalf and LC. Obviously gandalf's is much more stronger on paper .. Intuitively some stuff troubles me (Like mothrax's L2 vote on gandalf & whether he is really is that stupid to go against Gemini when there is a guilty on his scumbuddy) .. I'll now support either lynch. Still prefer LC ..

[Shadow Dancer]

An SK would never shoot for the primary scumgroup. He wants as many people as possible to die each night, and killing off the Egyptians is contrary to that.

Oh are you wrong... Have you ever played SK? (And won?) Any faction that knows or confirms each other is much more of a danger to an SK than your average know nothing vanilla townie. So you want scum decimated quickly (that also makes vig fake claim, which is always an SK's safest fake claim, more trustworthy, btw) and then have them on maybe 1 or 2 members until endgame.

[Shadow Dancer]

Also, my full claim ..

Hermes, Greek God of Messengers and Thieves

- Already claimed my

Messenger

power -> Grant daytalk for all QuickTopics as the messenger of Olympus.
- Started the game with no normal power. My passive was in my normal slot as a placeholder.
- Super:

Psychopomp

-> Can choose a player; Upon their death I receive their normal power.

When I replaced in, CMAR had already chosen SB. Andrius said I was allowed to change it once from SB; I asked it be reset to nobody. Plan was to use the super on somebody when I was sure they would be lynched.
D1: Gandalf ended the day before I could use my super.
D2: Choose AV before the lynch. Received his normal:

Protection

: Can protect a player from one shot on them. Can't use it on myself.
N3: Protected Iece

Why Iec? Don't you think Alma would have taken care of him?
Did Alma claim his protect?
Waiting for Nacho claim now...