Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[InflatablePie]

Reading through ISOs to do the pairs thing out of boredom, and Klazam's ISO 16 is horrible in hindsight.

All right. The buzz in my hive(My teammates, if its not being obvious) is telling me to look @ DGB.

I'm looking and i'm finding DGB very unreadable.

Am i correct in assuming that the main case on DGB is mainly about how DGB cannot say Sociopath is town? What else? If you all could clarify this, it would be awesome.

I mean, good lord.

The only thing still giving me a townread though is D1 VCs 3/4/5/6. I can't see scum both jumping on Socio that early and close together, but... hrm.

[InflatablePie]

Red = unlikely pair
Blue = possible-unlikely pair
Green = possible-likely pair

Sotty + Klazam

: Fits one-on, one-off the DGB wagon. Possible. Sotty flip-flops on Klazam a lot, but does have him as one of the top 3 lynch choices for today, so less likely than most other choices.

Sotty + DH

: Fits 1:1-DGB. Unlikely due to his pushing of DH today.

Sotty + Marble

: Fits 1:1-DGB. Sotty pushed Marble for most of D1 before switching to DGB. They're both in each other's list of 4 though. Possible but less likely than most.

Sotty + Fluff

: Fits 1:1-DGB. Unlikely due to his willingness for a Fluff lynch today.

Sotty + Sevei

: This team means both scum bussed DGB, so it's unlikely.

Klazam + DH

: This team means both scum were not only off the wagon, but were both non-voters. Unlikely.

Klazam + Marble

: Implies both scum off-wagon. Unlikely due to Marble's push of Klazam today.

Klazam + Fluff

: Both scum off-wagon. Possible - Fluff went from pushing Klazam hard yesterday to defending him today.

Klazam + Sevei

: 1:1-DGB. Possible due to high amounts of non-mention from both parties.

DH + Marble

: Both scum off-wagon. Possible. Go into DH's ISO and ctrl+f "marble". He mentions Marble often without giving many reads on him. Marble does have him on his top 3, though, so slightly less likely.

DH + Fluff

: Both scum off-wagon. Possible. Fluff calls DH town, DH talks to Fluff a lot without seeming suspicious of him.

DH + Sevei

: 1:1-DGB. Possible; DH doesn't seem to give a big read on Sevei, Sevei doesn't mention DH much.

Marble + Fluff

: Both scum off-wagon. Marble's on Fluff's willing-to-lynch list, and Marble is also disliking Fluff, so unlikely.

Marble + Sevei

: 1:1-DGB. Unlikely due to Sevei pushing Marble hard yesterday and today.

Fluff + Sevei

: 1:1-DGB. Possible, less likely than most pairs. Fluff thinks Sevei is town but Sevei seems slightly suspicious of Fluff.

Sotty has 3 red, 2 blue.
Klazam has 2 red, 1 blue, 2 green.
DH has 2 red, 1 blue, 2 green.
Marble has 3 red, 2 blue.
Fluff has 2 red, 1 blue, 2 green.
Sevei has 2 red, 1 blue, 2 green.

Let's play the numbers game and leave Marble/Sotty alone today. I will join the wagons of any of the other four.

Let's start with DH though: ctrl+f-ing through his ISO shows that he's talking a lot, but he's not saying anything. Qu'est-ce que c'est, DemonHybrid?

Vote: DH

Oh, I forgot to factor mith in as well.

Lynch preference order at the moment: DemonHybrid, LlamaFluff, Klazam, Llamarble, Sevei, Equinox, Sotty7, Thor, [Chris B, Inflatable Pie]

See his top 4? Those are the people off the DGB wagon. Sevei and Sotty are the other two in the lynch pool. If you think both scum bussed DGB, it's possible that mith is teamed with Sotty or Sevei. However, he's willing to lynch any of the four lynchees that are all off-wagon, meaning it's less likely he's scum with them. Add this to the (imo) improbability of both scum bussing DGB, and mith is much less likely to be scum due to lack of team-mates.

[InflatablePie]

By the way, you guys remember this?

InflatablePie (6) [L-1]: Equinox, Thor, Llamarble, Klazam, DH, IP

What are the odds of a L-2/L-1 wagon containing zero scum again?

[mith]

IP, that quote is very similar to LlamaFluff's (258)... so similar that I'm now skeptical that they are both scum; one would think Klazam would have avoided regurgitating LlamaFluff's post on the same page.

On a related note (regurgitating), Sotty and LlamaFluff have both said they're fine being lynched in recent posts... which I might see as a significant town tell if they were in any danger of being lynched, but I'm not sure how I feel about it in the current climate. My brain stopped working an hour ago, time for sleep.

(Oh, and I may not be on tomorrow - Michelle's having her orchestra party/talent show, and I have been requested to run some Mafia games for the kids. Huzzah.)

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC6:

DH (3): mith, Sotty, IP
Sevei (2): Thor, Equinox
Llamarble (1): Sevei
mith (1):, Klazam
Sotty (1): LlamaFluff
Klazam (1): Llamarble

Not Voting: DH,Chris,

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[Thor665]

By the way, you guys remember this?

InflatablePie (6) [L-1]: Equinox, Thor, Llamarble, Klazam, DH, IP

What are the odds of a L-2/L-1 wagon containing zero scum again?

Are you counting yourself

No, that is a solid call, though I'd feel better about it if you weren't tacked on like a wart at the end of the wagon. You're using this to indemnify DH? A cross reference with the DGB lynch gives us Thor, IP, Equinox - does that increase our chances of being scum since we all seem to agree scum would bus in this setup?

@Sevei - so are you saying both the wagon jumpers are scum, or only one? Also, why would the scum be fleeing from your wagon? I just got you a few exchanges ago to admit you didn't look like town, now you're crowing that scum are too scared to push through a wagon on you? Que? <--with IP raising the bar I have to prove bilingual too now.

[LlamaFluff]

IP is really starting to bug me here by continuing to just brush off my justifications for town and scum reads and trying to lead the town without listening to anyone who disagrees with him in the slightest.

@IP - Mith town read, Thor town read, Klazam scum read. Explain them all since you refuse to listen to why I disagree with them.

[InflatablePie]

Are you counting yourself

That's why I said L-2/L-1.

No, that is a solid call, though I'd feel better about it if you weren't tacked on like a wart at the end of the wagon. You're using this to indemnify DH? A cross reference with the DGB lynch gives us Thor, IP, Equinox - does that increase our chances of being scum since we all seem to agree scum would bus in this setup?

I'm not completely sold that scum would bus. If anything, it'd be 1:1 on:off, but definitely not both, that's for sure.

Anyways, I -think- I get what you're saying (my brain's a little fried at the moment), but just because both wagons contained three common players does not necessarily mean one of them has to be scum. I'm saying that DH was on my wagon, where there is most likely scum, and is possibly/probably a DGB-scumbuddy who was off the wagon. Whether there was a scumbuddy on the wagon or not isn't too relevant to that extent.

without listening to anyone who disagrees with him in the slightest.

this happens when I tunnel


Mith town read:

Lynch preference order at the moment: DemonHybrid, LlamaFluff, Klazam, Llamarble, Sevei, Equinox, Sotty7, Thor, [Chris B, Inflatable Pie]

See his top 4? Those are the people off the DGB wagon. Sevei and Sotty are the other two in the lynch pool. If you think both scum bussed DGB, it's possible that mith is teamed with Sotty or Sevei. However, he's willing to lynch any of the four lynchees that are all off-wagon, meaning it's less likely he's scum with them. Add this to the (imo) improbability of both scum bussing DGB, and mith is much less likely to be scum due to lack of team-mates.

Klazam scum read:

Klazam's ISO 16 is horrible in hindsight.

All right. The buzz in my hive(My teammates, if its not being obvious) is telling me to look @ DGB.

I'm looking and i'm finding DGB very unreadable.

Am i correct in assuming that the main case on DGB is mainly about how DGB cannot say Sociopath is town? What else? If you all could clarify this, it would be awesome.

I mean, good lord.

(to elaborate - this reeks of scum too scared to jump on their buddy. "Everyone's telling me she's scum, but I don't see it. Why is she scum again?" - also mimics Fluff, which I admittedly didn't notice till mith pointed it out)


Thor town-read:
ISO him and read his interactions with DGB. They just scream town. Plus DGB's vote on him at end-of-day, WIFOM or not, makes him look better in my book. Finally, he came out today wanting Sevei or DH lynches, two people I think are most likely scum via possible pairing analysis (PPA? can I coin an acronym? ), so he's not paired with either of them since scum cannot bus at this point (or if they do, they need to back off eventually), so he's town.

Que? <--with IP raising the bar I have to prove bilingual too now.

I assume you're referring to my use of qu'est-ce que c'est?

[InflatablePie]

EBWOP: Flawed probability or not, there's also the team-alignment-thingy for mith. Not to mention he's been trying scumhunting.

@Everyone who hasn't outright said so already: your top 5 ideal lynch candidates at this point, please.

I want blood and I want it soon. :v

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not completely sold that scum would bus. If anything, it'd be 1:1 on:off, but definitely not both, that's for sure.

Its 50-50 or so to me, although if both bussed, I would bet that one of the last three is scum. There was little chance for DGB to make it deep in this game, and I think attentive scum would have realized this and situated themselves for a DGB flip coming either day one or two.

See his top 4? Those are the people off the DGB wagon. Sevei and Sotty are the other two in the lynch pool. If you think both scum bussed DGB, it's possible that mith is teamed with Sotty or Sevei. However, he's willing to lynch any of the four lynchees that are all off-wagon, meaning it's less likely he's scum with them. Add this to the (imo) improbability of both scum bussing DGB, and mith is much less likely to be scum due to lack of team-mates.

So to make it clear....

Your mith town read is beacuse you dont think both scum bussed DGB. Nice to know thats a strong point in his favor... again look what mith is doing, very similar to Sotty. He is trying to put the maximum ammount of attention on a group that he himself is not a part of. The only one he calls town is the person everyone else has as town. As opposed to Sotty though, he actually is doing a much better job of hiding it, and I actually didnt realize it until you just pointed it out.

Want pairings that work? Mith and any of Sevei, Sotty and Thor work very well. I think the best thing mith has going is actually him saying Ythill is reading me as town, which scum has absolutely no need to contribute to the game. That is actually why I have Sotty over him.

(to elaborate - this reeks of scum too scared to jump on their buddy. "Everyone's telling me she's scum, but I don't see it. Why is she scum again?" - also mimics Fluff, which I admittedly didn't notice till mith pointed it out)

That case didnt make much sense to me, and I willingly admit I cant read the people who have very little in the terms of repeting logical trends (meaning I can figure out what they are doing). One person on my team was saying they thought she was scum, but I still didnt see it (and still dont see it).

Look at some of the DGB to Klazam posts though. In one of her early posts, she supports my vote on him without adding pressure of her own. Later on, she again encourages a wagon on him. This doesnt read like scumbuddy interactions but scum seeing if they can drum up a wagon on town.

ISO him and read his interactions with DGB. They just scream town. Plus DGB's vote on him at end-of-day, WIFOM or not, makes him look better in my book. Finally, he came out today wanting Sevei or DH lynches, two people I think are most likely scum via possible pairing analysis (PPA? can I coin an acronym? ), so he's not paired with either of them since scum cannot bus at this point (or if they do, they need to back off eventually), so he's town.

Draft mafia.

SC-scum is going down an jumps hard on one of his buddies near the end of the day, which buys the partner a mislynch before they go. The attack felt more forced then anything else to me. While I do see this as the read im closest to agreeing with you on, im not ready to call him town. I dont see anything though that makes them obviously not partners past your argued last minute vote.

Top five though: Sotty, marble, mith, thor, sevei (equinox can make an appearance here bumping sevei depending on how I feel at the time). I will NOT vote Klazam, Chris or DH for the rest of this game unless something drastic changes.

[Llamarble]

Top 5:
Klazam
Sevei
DH
Fluff
Sotty

[TheButtonmen]

Amrun replaces Klazam.

[Amrun]

Hi. Klazam has had some real life issues that prevents him from being as present as he feels the game deserved, so I am stepping in as his teammate. I was in PYP and flipped already, and have since been following this game very closely and cheerleading Klazam because I really like how the gameplay of this game shook out.

Let me gather my thoughts and get up a major post.

I'll tell you right now that I intend to vote for mith and have suspected him since I first read the game, partway through yesterday.

[Sotty7]

Llama's 503 is weak. I hate the bussing argument so much... So much so much. It's even more silly when I voted scum while he didn't. I'm not going to defend my choice to help pressure DGB and eventually lynch her. Still I am agreeing with Pie in that we're in a pretty sweet position right now. I'm willing to be lynched today as long as DH/Fluff go next. I'm reasonably confident lynching one of these two wins us the game.

This is sort of cutting out key parts of what I said...

Nope.

Your case cut down is that I bussed DGB right? In a set up where bussing is a sub optimal play, you want to say that I voted her after I had laid ground work else where. That I then

kept

my vote on her when, if I was scum, I had a good couple of reasons to bail off her and given her breathing room. Yeah, it's weak.

The rest is you fluffing it up to look better than it actually is. Trying to distract people from the obvious. It's funny how you're only bringing this up after trapping yourself in and saying it's 50/50 between myself and Marble.

I want to lynch off the DGB wagon for reasons I have stated several times. Bussing your scum buddy to a lynch on DAY ONE of a white flag game is terrible scum play. I find most of the people on the DGB wagon to be townie outside of their presence on that wagon anyway. Sevei is getting a pass because she hammered. It's that simple. I'm giving people on the DGB a pass for the day, I don't care if you don't like that because I was on that wagon. I'm not trying to tell everyone else to do the same.

I only have four lynch candidates for today. In order

DH
Amrun (Klazam replacing out and Amrun taking his place makes me much more suspicious of this slot)
Fluff
Marble

[Amrun]

DemonHybrid: Fair enough if you would have spoken up on suspecting Equinox, but wouldn't you also speak up (before now, when you have been asked about her directly) if you found her townish? That whole exchange with LlamaFluff reads like you were trying to defend Equinox without actually coming out and committing to a town read (in case things went south?).

First in 51, we have you responding to LlamaFluff's vote by questioning his stance on meta; the follow-up in 55 then asks (paraphrasing) "Well if you think it's Equinox-IP, why aren't you picking on IP??".

So that's part of what was odd about that exchange. Then you apparently take offense when he implies you agree with him about Equinox - again without actually saying "No, I think she's town", followed by some "I FOSed you and you didn't respond" sulking. Meh.

(I'm not sure which point you're talking about with "I believe I have the right to agree with a point, even though I don't have a specific read on a person." - if you're talking about your post 45 point 2, I'm still lost, because you're saying you have the right to agree to a point which was never made. If you're talking about some other point, clarify.)

DrippingGoofball: I'm loving a DemonHybrid/Llamarble/Equinox group right now; they were my top three independently, but DH/Equinox makes a lot of sense given the above, and I quite like Llamarble/Equinox for the sheeping, plus the end of 179: "If I were Sottytown and didn't like the parroting, I'd have liked Equinox for wavelengthsharing on disliking the Mith wagon parroting.".

This post by mith was one of the first things that bothered me, but I couldn't put my finger on it until later. First, it was just his lack of vote and his reasoning for it which I didn't like. Lack of vote is more often a scumtell than not -- however, I'm not dumb enough to think that this is anything but a nulltell in the hands of mith. But it did make me pay attention to his posts more closely.

This dancing around Equinox is, and continues to be, mith's only point against DH that has any validity whatsoever (except being off the DGB wagon, which occurred later).

mith's case on DH then shifts to attacking him for attacking Llama for attacking one out of a possible scumpair (in which the facts on both sides were all sorts of screwy).

This is quite ironic to me, and something I pointed out to Klazam, which led him to ask mith some questions about the Equinox/DH relationship according to mith.

In order for DH to be scum according to mith, it seems to me, Equinox would HAVE to be scum. Mith attacks DH for "lying" about his read on Equinox, but in this scenario, DHscum would ONLY have motivation to lie about Equinoxscum if they were scumbuddies.

So if this is the suspicious behavior mith "keyed in on," and he puts Equinox in his supposed scumteam speculation and suspects Equinox, why wouldn't he attack Equinox? In the very LEAST, why would he not take this as an impetus to look more closely at Equinox's play as a way to inform his DH read?

The whole attack on DH by mith reads to me as scum-motivated. It doesn't look to me like mith made the attack with the intent of determining alignment, and the way his read progressed seems fabricated to me. He was going for a mislynch, and was always going for a mislynch; I think a townie in this situation would have done more to look at the DH-Equinox link, but scummith would not have because he wanted to keep Equinox open as a possible mislynch later on.

[snip]
Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

(LlamaFluff drops down The List™ to "solidly town" status. Still not sure what was bothering the gut, but it's gone now.)

This is a humongous pile of fencesitting which is pretty predictably followed by a turnaround. When mith posted this, the DGB wagon didn't have much weight. Here, he treated it very lightly, but did you notice his attempt to discredit Socio's case? I did. "Oh, case is bad, moving on, nothing to see here folks." But he doesn't get into the specifics of it because most of the case actually DOES have substance - and mith himself changed his mind on this later.

This is followed by even more fencesitting and another completely fabricated read progression. Highlights from progressing posts:

"Sticking with DemonHybrid for now, but I'm starting to talk myself into DGB-scum."

One last attempt to discredit socio, and then, "Sotty and Thor, point taken about the DH vote not going anywhere." (puts DGB at L-1, wagon is obviously a go by then)

With DGB at L-1: "DGB seems to be grasping for a lifeline with the Thor stuff."

Then, he gives a "summary" of why he thinks DGB is scum.

It REEKS of a late bus. Absolutely reeks.

And then this:

Ooh, great catch. Anyone know whether scum have day talk or not? I don't see anything in the OP about day talk, so I'm inclined to switch to Chris B ASAP if they do (and likewise put him solidly in the town camp if not).

So fake. This supposed "slip" from OOOOOOOBVTOWN ChrisB is just silly. His not knowing about this is just more indication of that.

VOTE: mith

More on other players to come.

[Amrun]

Also, for reference, this is my reads list I posted in our team QT before day 1 ended. I'll post an updated one when I finish giving my rundowns on players, as it has changed.

Llamarble
DGB
Mith
Thor
Equinox
Ipie
LlamaFluff
Socio
DH
Sevei
Sotty
Chris B

[Amrun]

Sotty, why does Klazam replacing out make you suspicious? What about replacing out is a scumtell?

[Sotty7]

The fact he was under pressure when he did makes me grouchy, plus the fact you took the spot over your teammate. So, part meta, part annoyance maybe?

[Amrun]

(Marble doesn't talk about [DGB], either--but I bet he will now.)

Sevei

I'll quickread DGB now and then be off for most of the day.

DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

Marble, you make no mention of anything I said about you or DGB in 217, yet you feel the need to announce you are now going to look at DGB out of the blue? Why DGB at that point specifically? Because aside from my comments, there doesn't seem to be any reason for you to have done that at that particular point in time.

This post of Sevei gave Sevei MAJOR townpoints for me, since this is something I had noticed and given Llamarble scumpoints for before Sevei actually posted it.

His analysis of the wagon on him today also keeps me at a fairly solid town read on him. The wagon on Sevei is absolute shit.

Llamarble

I think Llamarble is the most likely third partner, after mith. DGB's fake "llama" mix up was strange, as was the series of posts Sevei quoted above.

Sotty and Sevei have both made other solid points on Llamarble.

Personally, I disliked the self vote in RVS that he left on himself as he FoSed multiple people.I find multiple FoSes scummy in and of themselves, as it's usually indicative of scum laying down suspicion to fall back on if the opportunity arises. DH was the first one to point this out to me, as he went after someone for this who flipped scum while DH was town. So, if Llamarble flips scum, DH gets some scum points.

One thing that really bugged me about Llamarble today: I liked his idea about the pairing stuff, but why would he ever clear mith as someone the town agrees is obvtown? Wtf? He was at least one person's top suspect at that point. It was really strange and read as an attempt to WIFOM the town into a bunch of mislynches.

p-edit: He requested that someone else take it (suggested Rhinox) but I've loved following this game and asked to go in instead because I was itching to play.

[Amrun]

EBWOP: I meant to say that Klazam really wasn't under much pressure. P sure nobody is voting for him, even.

[Sotty7]

Well I am liking the info dump so far so maybe my read will change once I get a chance to digest it a little. Enthusiasm is infectious and all that.

[InflatablePie]

again look what mith is doing, very similar to Sotty. He is trying to put the maximum ammount of attention on a group that he himself is not a part of.

DGB (7): Socio,

Thor

, IP, Equinox,

Sotty, mith, Sevei

Thor (2):

Llamarble

, DGB
Llamarble (1):, ChrisB
Sevei (1): LlamaFluff
Not Voting: DH, Klazam

Bolded are the people you want to lynch. Hey look, 80% of them are on the wagon, and you weren't! Hypocrisy much?

Unvote, Vote: Fluff

I dont see anything though that makes [Thor and DGB] obviously not partners past your argued last minute vote.

I'll drag up actual quotes and explain the points later today, after work. Too tired right now.

Concerning both scum bussing, keep in mind that if scum bus D1, they're unable to bus each other for the rest of the game, thus putting on way too much pressure. It's a risky move to add two votes to the scum bus-wagon. Now, a mith/Sevei team is possible ONLY if both of them bussed. However, I don't believe they're both scum.


Amrun's presence in this game should be interesting. Amrun, can I have your read on Fluff as soon as possible? (within the next 7-8 hours would be best so I can tackle it straight after work)

[InflatablePie]

Keep in mind, IIRC, wasn't Marble the wagon opposite to DGB on D1?

Am I the only one that finds this a point in his favor?

[Amrun]

SCUM

Mith: Covered in a previous post.

Llamarble: Covered in a previous post.

Thor: I've played with him before in a town that got nominated for best town, and his play isn't very similar. Plus the late DGB attack on him was strange.

Equinox: The way she cleared Sotty read very townie to me, though other things have been more questionable. A teammate of mine thinks she's scum, though, because Socio drew a link between Equinox and DGB and then got NKed.

Ipie: His reads are terrible, so very terrible, but I don't think he's scum.

DH: mith/DH does not feel like scum on scum. Gets minor scumpoints if Llamarble flips scum, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Sotty: Llamarble/Sotty and DGB/Sotty do not read like busses

Sevei: In previous post, but I forgot to add that I replaced a Sevei-slot once that was far more lurky even than this, and it was a town slot.

LlamaFluff: Our reads agree strongly. Mith dance around him reads as hoping for a mislynch on a town player.

Chris B: Anyone calling this player scum is probably scum, though I do wish he would post more.

TOWN

p-edit: Actually, Llamarble being an opposing wagon to DGB is a point against him, imho. DGB's buddies had a huge incentive to push Llamarble over DGB, but in fact, Llamarble's biggest opposition also suspected DGB and helped push that wagon along. I think the two biggest wagons on d1 were on scum (with the exception of the Ipie wagon, which grew much more quickly than either of those, which should tell you something).

My read on LF is above, but some elaboration:

He went through a lot of trouble to clear my slot today, and he is right. A scum player simply would not have done that in this position.

[InflatablePie]

again look what mith is doing, very similar to Sotty. He is trying to put the maximum ammount of attention on a group that he himself is not a part of.

Amrun's top 4 lynch candidates:
DGB (7): Socio,

Thor

, IP,

Equinox

, Sotty,

mith

, Sevei
Thor (2):

Llamarble

, DGB
Llamarble (1):, ChrisB
Sevei (1): LlamaFluff
Not Voting: DH, Klazam

I'm next, assuming her list is in order.

...Sooo, Fluff. Being that Amrun is doing the same thing as mith (and yourself), would you be willing to negotiate an Amrun lynch today?