Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

LlamaFluff · Post Post #425 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 10:20 am

mith wrote:DrippingGoofball - The "lurker hunt" comment feels so familiar to my most recent DGB experience, where she was scum. (Not the specific comment, just the vibe.) Lots of comments about scumtells/towntells... which is a nulltell, probably.

Early mith comments on how DGB appears to be playing the exact same way as she does with scum in a vibe department, and then gets written off as completely null instead of anything else. It feels like this is a forced statement to be slightly suspicious of DGB as opposed to calling her a town or scum read in this situation.

Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

More doding of actually directly calling DGB scum, but far more interesting this time. First he takes some shots at the SP case on her, but then makes a circle by agreeing with a few of the points, again making DGB a slight scum read? I dunno, he never really commented on her past a couple lines like this so far, just mostly "this is interesting" and moves on. DGB appears to be out of the top three here is all I can tell.

Finally he snaps onto DGB seeming to cite the wagon being "dodgy" (how?) as reasoning to why he just brushed DGB off as town earlier, despite the few things I already pointed out here. Eventually though the move seems to be triggered by SP attacking mith as a possible partner to DGB, and the vote is made while blatantly leaving the option open to return to the DH wagon the next day, which is where you can find him right now.

Llamarble · Post Post #426 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 10:26 am

When I read DGB (partially because you mentioned I hadn't and partially because she was a topic of interest), I said:

Llamarble wrote:DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

When somebody asks you for a read on somebody else, they're typically expecting or at least will welcome some reasoning to go with it.
And noting the reasons for my thoughts was partially for my own benefit anyway so I'd recall them later come catchuptime.
HOW is this a "long ISO/case??"

And DGB's discussion of me was requested by Sotty.

YOU'RE ARGUING THAT WHEN ASKED ABOUT SOMEBODY RESPONDING WITH A READ AND AN EXPLANATION IS A SCUMBUDDYTELL.

DGB didn't read me as town. She said I did scummy things and townie things, which from scum usually means "I'll mislynch you later."

DH is next on my analist.

Llamarble · Post Post #427 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 10:27 am

Ah, pagesplit makes that look weird. ^^ You is Sevei.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #428 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 12:34 pm

TheButtonmen wrote:
D2VC3:

DH (3): mith, Sotty, Llamarble
Sevei (2): IP, Thor
Llamarble (1): Equinox
Klazam (1): Llamarble
mith (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting: DH, Klazam,ChrisB,Sevei

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.
Sotty is V/LA until 30th.

@Mod: Llamarble is voting for Sevei, not me.

@Thor: I picked this game because VT is my favorite role. Things feel more like being in a sherlock holmes novel instead of some sort of uninteresting game of hide-from-the-spotlight.

@mith:

DemonHybrid: You're twisting; I didn't say I was looking at the people off wagon because I didn't find those on wagon suspicious. What I said was that I was intended to read through the wagon later - the (I thought rather obvious, but apparently not) implication being that there wasn't much urgency to look at those players who I wasn't suspicious of, contrasted to the off-wagon group who I then went on to analyze.

Alright. No need to freak out. I just thought it was a little weird that you worded it that way.

I got out of work a bit early today so I have some time to do some analysis. Like the others, I'd like to avoid the DGB wagon for now and I'm kind of looking at Sevei at the moment. I'll ISO her and see what interactions she's had with DGB and give my input later tonight.

Equinox · Post Post #429 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 12:47 pm

Unvote

Catching up now. Gonna do some more reading after that. Heads up that I may have to leave for a few hours later tonight, so if I don't finish before I leave, I'm picking the thread apart when I wake up tomorrow.

Llamarble · Post Post #430 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 1:24 pm

DH seems pretty noncommital and gives tepid reads / doesn't seem to care deeply who gets lynched; the post with the +1s & -1s is an example.
Doesn't interact much with the DGB wagon, which is the main thing going. DGB is on but not on top of his scumlist most of the day.
Mith makes some good points.
Not as scummy as Klazam / Sevei though.

I like Fluff ISO 20; echoes my feelings on Sevei. Other stuff is also pretty good.
IPie is a strong townread.
Sotty gets some points for her role in the DGBlynch but doubts linger.

TOWN:
Llamarble
Equinox
InflatablePie
Mith
Thor
Fluff
ChrisB

Sotty

DH

Klazam
Sevei
:SCUM

Sevei · Post Post #431 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 1:54 pm

Thor: Here's a link to a game I was in with DH. He killed me for being too quiet, so you could direct your question to him if you like. http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=16353
What he said in game: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p2893971

Marble, you're still missing my point. (Mayhap on purpose?)

I understand responding to someone who asks you your opinion on another player. HOWEVER, I don't understand why, if you think someone is town, that response requires a comment about looking up their ISO, discussing their ISO/play, and then concluding that "Yep, she's town" RATHER than just saying "Because I think she's town." Going to that much trouble to justify a town read? That's pretty scummy.

DGB's response to Sotty about you was loaded with fence-sitting about you, which you yourself just pointed out. She hadn't had problems pointing out anything she saw that was scummy about other people WITHOUT BEING ASKED, so why did she have to be asked about you before seeing not one but several scummy things about your play? She only commented on you because she was forced to do so in the first place, and somehow despite seeing several scummy things about you was still only able to come to a very inconclusive thesis about your alignment, and despite pointing out how you were pretty scummy, tried to redirect the conversation to another player in the SAME POST. Ergo, you're her scumbuddy.

InflatablePie · Post Post #432 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 3:56 pm

Equinox wrote:
Unvote

I'm glad I could persuade you. :D

Llamarble · Post Post #433 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 6:02 pm

Sevei wrote:
I understand responding to someone who asks you your opinion on another player. HOWEVER, I don't understand why, if you think someone is town, that response requires a comment about looking up their ISO, discussing their ISO/play, and then concluding that "Yep, she's town" RATHER than just saying "Because I think she's town." Going to that much trouble to justify a town read? That's pretty scummy.

I had limited access from 2 days after the start of D1 until its completion. Consequently, I had hardly looked at DGB's (or most other players', for that matter) posting before your comment. I find you scummy because you link me to DGB for having barely discussed her when there are 7-8 other players to whom that logic applies equally. And I didn't have a read already in my head that I could just dump into the thread, so I read her, mentioning things of note.

DGB's response to Sotty about you was loaded with fence-sitting about you, which you yourself just pointed out. She hadn't had problems pointing out anything she saw that was scummy about other people WITHOUT BEING ASKED, so why did she have to be asked about you before seeing not one but several scummy things about your play? She only commented on you because she was forced to do so in the first place, and somehow despite seeing several scummy things about you was still only able to come to a very inconclusive thesis about your alignment, and despite pointing out how you were pretty scummy, tried to redirect the conversation to another player in the SAME POST. Ergo, you're her scumbuddy.

This is all can-wield-against-almost-anyone scumlogic. DGB made points for and against the towniness of Me, Llamafluff, IPie, and Sotty. Probably she just hadn't looked deeply at me yet (consistent with llama-confusion, which seems an odd thing to fake) and after being asked to was doing so, laying down a temporary pseudotownread and poking what she could. And calling "I'm going to continue attacking the person I've been attacking" redirection is :asspulling:

Llamarble · Post Post #434 (ISO) » Sat May 28, 2011 8:22 pm

Okay, if people want to start listing unlikely scumteams with good reasons I think that will be helpful.
Groundrule is nobody can rule out a team that includes themselves.
We will probably have to get rid of a fairly significant number to start seeing real benefits like having to ponder a small number of teampossibilities,
but agreeing on a few players as highprobtown and simply not considering scumteams that include them will speed things along.
If the game continues for more days the method will be more powerful. If it seems useful I'll post the list near the end of each day in case I get NKed.
Nothing will be irreversible and disagreement on a pairing being unlikely will result in the edge being restored to the graph.
Or if we can't agree on enough to make it useful I may just do the whole business myself.
Here's the graph with no edges removed 'cause it's pretty!

ISO · Post Post #435 (ISO) » Sun May 29, 2011 7:17 am

(Yay, new mouse for Michelle’s compy. I can scroll up!)

LlamaFluff: The first quote is kinda taken out of context - it was part of a list of every player in the game. Anyway, yes, at that point I was slightly suspicious of her, and more suspicious of others. If I had felt that she were “playing the exact way as she does with scum”, that would have warranted an immediate vote; what I felt was a “familiar vibe”.

Second quote, again, suspicious but not at the top of my list. I felt SocioPath made a couple good points in the midst of a lot of questionable ones, and that wasn’t enough to push her to the top of the list, though I certainly wasn’t “[brushing] her off as town” (interesting choice of words, given that you earlier accuse me of making a “forced statement to be slightly suspicious of DGB as opposed to calling her a town or scum read in this situation” - those two claims don’t exactly work together). It did prompt a reread which lead to finding some more points against her (257) and my eventual vote when it became clear there wasn’t support for a DemonHybrid lynch.

(Aside: “Im starting to get a little flustered with reads here mostly due to how unreadable I always find DGB and SP, although part of my team at least thinks DGB is scum.” from LlamaFluff in the next post, 258 - thinking LlamaFluff may be projecting his own motivations onto me… wagon starts to heat up, LlamaFluff has made an earlier statement dismissing the DGB/SP argument as town vs. town, feels the need to distance himself from that statement a bit?)

Explained the “dodgy” comment in my reply to SP (the IP alliance looked like it could be a push for a mislynch); nothing to do with earlier statements, just commenting that when I first started looking at the DGB wagon/DGB ISO I had my reservations, but finding some juicy scumtells pushed those reservations aside. The move to DGB was triggered by DemonHybrid not getting any votes… trying to imply that there is any scummy motivation behind me now voting for the player who has consistently been my top suspect (and whose scumminess has further increased in the wake of the DGB flip and his reaction/lack thereof to that wagon) is… weird.

Not sure how much help looking at pairings will be since we only need to lynch one scum, but I guess it can’t hurt. Since I’m thinking about LlamaFluff right now: I think it’s very unlikely he and Sevei are scum together (he would probably be voting for DemonHybrid, or at least making a stronger push to distract from the Sevei wagon). Ditto everyone currently on that wagon… Sotty7-DemonHybrid… Equinox-IP… I feel like there was something else I ruled out earlier, but I don’t remember what it was, and can’t find it.

Ythill says that there wasn’t anything ruling LlamaFluff out, but there wasn’t anything in the DGB ISO pointing to him either, and based on a skim read + meta he thinks LlamaFluff is probably town.

Equinox · Post Post #436 (ISO) » Sun May 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Real quick here because I can't be arsed with a long-winded post and analysis right now.

Town: InflatablePie, Thor665, mith, Sotty7, Chris B

Llamarble is probably town, as well, so I will be laying off him.

What I'm doing now is tracking down the others' voting patterns and tying them to whatever stances they've stated in the thread. I've got a line of thought about how the DrippingGoofball wagon built as SocioPath pushed it and as the votes piled, so that's what I'm investigating. I'm about halfway; it's getting late, though, and I'll probably collapse at a moment's notice; the finish line will have to wait (again) until tomorrow. Hold me to this, please? I'd rather not slack off again.

By the way, I like the idea of tracking down connections, but I won't be personally doing so until later in the day when we've had stances and wagons flung about to the point where the words "sudden death" start to chafe and scum are forced to play to a pattern.

In the meantime, here are some of my current areas of interest.

Sevei:

Opinions on every player in the game now, please. You've been doing quite a bit of talking

to

players but almost zero talking

about

them.

DemonHybrid wrote:@Thor: I picked this game because VT is my favorite role. Things feel more like being in a sherlock holmes novel instead of some sort of uninteresting game of hide-from-the-spotlight.

Help me out a bit here: Let's say you had a choice of townie PM between this game and another game. Why did you choose this one?

Equinox · Post Post #437 (ISO) » Sun May 29, 2011 9:31 pm

EBWOP:

Equinox wrote:I'm about halfway; it's getting late, though, and I'll probably collapse at a moment's notice; the finish line will have to wait (again) until tomorrow.

Pretend I didn't just insert two semicolons in a single sentence. That's embarrassing.

Equinox · Post Post #438 (ISO) » Sun May 29, 2011 9:43 pm

Hang on, I screwed up. Sorry, DemonHybrid; you don't need to answer that question.

That means I get to slap this down.

Vote: Sevei

InflatablePie · Post Post #439 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 1:45 am

Equinox wrote:Town: InflatablePie, Thor665, mith,
Sotty7
, Chris B

Not that I think Sotty7 is scummy (actually unsure of him at the moment), but could you elaborate on the townread whenever possible?

-----

Mith, ChrisB, myself, Thor, and Equinox seem to be very close to unanimous townreads from what I've been reading, so I think we can rule out all of us in the possible scumteams pairings.

(is it bad that I feel dirty for asking to be included in this group :<)

Which leaves us with 15 possible pairings from there:

Spoiler: Pairings

Which makes 10 if we take out Marble (doesn't seem to be unanimous, but I've explained why he's town)

Spoiler: Pairings 2

And a mere 6 minus Klazam, who I've also given reasons for being town:

Spoiler: Pairings 3

So feel free to analyze those possibilities on your own.

I'll analyze the possibilities of these six later/eventually/before end-of-day, so let's hold off on any hammer until I can post them, please? I may also analyze the Klazam possibilities, if only because he's a shaky read of mine.

InflatablePie · Post Post #440 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 1:48 am

Oh:

Sevei (4): IP, Thor, Llamarble, Equinox
DH (2): mith, Sotty
Llamarble (1): Sevei
mith (1): LlamaFluff
Not Voting: DH, Klazam, ChrisB

Sevei is at L-2.

Gimme at least 48 hours to do some analyzing JUST IN CASE I'm wrong (as well as hear from ChrisB and Sotty who are on V/LA... and the other lurkers, Klazam included) and then we can hammer her.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #441 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 2:21 am

D2VC4:

Sevei (4): IP, Thor, Llamarble, Equinox
DH (2): mith, Sotty,
Llamarble (1): Sevei
mith (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting: DH, Klazam,ChrisB,

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.

InflatablePie · Post Post #442 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 2:23 am

@Mod: you have Marble voting for two people. He should be voting for Sevei as of #414

:U

Fixed, thanks.

ISO · Post Post #443 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 3:35 pm

Been at a Memorial Day thing all day, but it doesn't look like I've missed much. There are several people that need to be talking more... Klazam's last post was a "will post tonight" (three days ago), DemonHybrid's last post included "I got out of work a bit early today so I have some time to do some analysis." (two days ago), Chris B has been V/LA all day...

LlamaFluff · Post Post #444 (ISO) » Mon May 30, 2011 5:57 pm

@mith - You should listen to Ythill more. Him and kmd are the only two players who can actually read me with high accuracy. Most other people tend to think im the same thing I was last time I played with them due to a flat meta.

Anyways

I think the four lynch pool here is

mith/Sotty/marble (well three lynch, I cant see the game progressing past that. throw either thor or sevei in as last one) Even MORE likely is one of Sotty/marble. I like that idea here, I can see mith flipping town. I cant see sotty AND marble flipping town.

For a more DECONSTRUCTIVE proof for those of you who dont like people just throwing out town reads...

DH I had as probably scum due to him attacking me hard early on, for something that really made no sense at all and that lines up very will with the... fevor of what I see DH-town play like for the most part. To an extent, the attack of me in particular day one is a bit of a town tell, especially for players who are experienced with me it seems. I think DH fits the bill enough here to be called town in my book.

Chris is town due to DGB trying to discredit him early on by calling him a possible alt. Scum can take pot shots at their partners early on, but actively trying to make it so their say in the game is viewed as lesser OR that they get suspicions cast againt them for things out of their control? Again, stupid move if chris was scum, as scum you want your partners to be in a position to help you or the team when needed. This was actively damaging Chris' position, so he is town.

IP has been town since about page five. No more needed here.

Klazam is town due to DGB trying to egg me on when I was pushing him and not getting support (iso 6) without actually putting backing to the wagon at all. **aside** big point to Sotty-scum in this post where DGB brings up marble talking about tells from sotty that make her scum, and then brushing that off as soon as pressed on the issue by Klazam. Again encouraging Klazam votes over SP (iso 27). So yeah, due to DGB we have Klazam-town.

Equinox is the last straggler. I have him as more town then Sevei and Thor, but not much more then to justify him here instead of there. He is in the little category of his own between the "town" and "null" people. I like to think he is town due to how the day went regarding DGB, but at the same time, he does fit the bill from his end of actions in the early stages of the SP v DGB battle of what I would expect scum to look like. Interesting part of this game is that scum need to exit the game making their partners look as good as possible, and I think DGB did some building up of Equinox. I just am really torn on him, and very likely would have fired a cop his way.

Basically - Chris, IP, Klazam and DH are town, Equinox flirts with that category but wont actually fit in.

Wipe out the rest. I would be willing to get behind a mith, Sotty or marble wagon, in that order.

Sotty7 · Post Post #445 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2011 1:06 am

I'm back and will be catching up soon.

ISO · Post Post #446 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2011 5:58 am

FOS: LlamaFluff

You don't think Sotty and Llamarble are both town, in a game where we only need to lynch one more scum to win... but rather than vote for either of them you throw a weak case up on a third party who you "can see flipping town"? Bweh?

Also, you had DH as probably scum for doing something that lines up with DH-town... um, am I misreading, or did that just not make any sense?

(Loving DH-LlamaFluff as our pairing now.)

Sotty7 · Post Post #447 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2011 6:48 am

I seem to be the only one who doesn't think that scum would bus fashion Sevei did, am I missing something here? The wagon was at it's tipping point and I could see it being derailed, even more with DGB on V/LA. If DGB had flipped town that was a scummy looking hammer, I'm just having a hard time trying to figure how it works in reverse.

Thor, I've never played with Sevei before.

Pie, DGB is high on VCA's so if anyone here can manipulate the counts, it's her. I don't like clearing people just on vote counts.

And yeah, what Mith said. I'd also like to know why Llamafluff doesn't think we can (myself and marble) flip town. Seems like a chain lynch link there for no reason.

I still like my reads from post 405.

Thor665 · Post Post #448 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2011 6:56 am

@Sotty - I think the basic disagreement re: Sevei between you and I is I don't see her at a pivotal point in the wagon. I think she was maybe trying to slow it down a bit, realized she couldn't/was looking bad for doing so, and sprang forward with both feet for lynch win. I know in this setup it's a glorious wifom dance as to whether or not scum would bus, but I know if I was scum in this setup I'd bus like nobody's business as early as I needed to in the expectation it would help dramatically distance me and help me sail along till deep into the game with no real consideration on me.

You're still after the Llamafluff angle? What do you think of post #*cough* (Thor may be too lazy to actually go back and get the post number) where he did a wagon analysis and basically called half the players left obv. town. That's a pretty dramatic limiting of his vote pool later if he lasts that long, isn't it? I'm not sure I buy scum pulling that maneuver at this stage.

Sotty7 · Post Post #449 (ISO) » Tue May 31, 2011 7:09 am

I think everyone has been calling lots of people obv town since DGB's lynch. Fluff doing it isn't wetting my appetite for him being town, scum have a little choice to blend in. I just can't let go of his DGB defending. In the white flag set up, I really doubt scum would want to bus.

As for Sevei I'm just really not seeing it. She hasn't done a lot of protown stuff this game either so I'm not going to fight the lynch, but eh. I could be projecting my own belefs onto her RE: the bussing. I just really think DH is a much better lynch this game, by far.