Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Sotty7]

Just waking up and checking in. Gut says a DH or Llamarble vote wins this for us today but I need to read over DGB again to see if that has a basis in fact. I do know I want to lynch off wagon today mostly because I like a lot of the people that lynched DGB.

But yeah, I'll be back later once I've done some reading.

[Klazam]

back.

Will post tonight

[mith]

DemonHybrid: "So...are you suspicious of the people off of the wagon BECAUSE you aren't suspicious of the people on it? Or...do you actually have reasons for suspecting who you do?" - Are you for real? Hold on, line-break required for full effect:

I JUST analyzed the relative suspiciousness of the five of you off-wagon, in the very same post where I said I wasn't suspicious of those on-wagon!

You even commented on part of it! [Rebuttal: Admittedly, that was a sarcastic paraphrase, but what you actually said wasn't much better; after repeated assurances that you were working on your readthrough/wallpost and had actual conclusions coming, you post "Because I'm fucking pissed off at my job, I'm

just

answering this:" (emphasis mine), with the implication of "[instead of living up to what my past several posts have been promising]".]

How are you not dead yet?

[Thor665]

Ugh, I need to read up and look at more stuff.
That said, four way ties are not actually that exciting in Mafia.

Vote: Sevei

Dance, my pretties, dance.

[DemonHybrid]

I wrote that because they kept me longer than usual. I went to bed and the day had ended before I could do more work on it. The DGB flip changes everything in retrospect.

Also, I'm not denying that you analyzed it, but saying that "I'd like to go for the off-wagon people because I'm not overly suspicious of the people on-wagon" makes it seem like you're discrediting your own analysis and reads off as weird to me. Why even say something like that instead of "because of my aforementioned analysis, I'd like to go for the people off the wagon" instead of "I'm looking at the people off the wagon because of my stance of the people ON the wagon"?

[Sotty7]

From poking around in DGB's ISO I'm feeling ThorTown and ChrisBTown. I'm having extreme paranoia gut twangs with the whole Equi fighting with DGB's town read of her. I also just realized that DGB only mentions DH twice in her ISO. Once was a direct reply to him for why she hadn't posted and the other was to list him in a early scum list of hers. Strange.

I like Pie's 384 a lot actually and out of respect I won't be voting marble, at least right now. I would still like to know where his suspicion of me suddenly went. But yeah, downgraded for now.

In short, the pool of lynchees is narrowed down to: Thor, Sotty, mith, Sevei, ChrisB, LlamaFluff, and DH - just under a 30% chance if we randomly picked a player.

Out of this list the only two I would really like to lynch are DH and Llamafluff. Sevei a distant 3rd.

I would also like to contest your town read of Klazam because of the VC's. I don't think it is unusual for scum to jump on to wagons in that manner, even more considering Klazam would be newbscum. I'm just finding his push on Socio and convenient (?) V/LA to be a little suspect. It has downgraded my fledging town read of him that developed yesterday.

DH gets a lot of negative points for turning up today and going right back into bickering with mith. I'd like some reads from you at the very least, some content would also be nice.

DH/Klazam/Llamafluff are my top picks for scum right now. I tempted to give everyone on the DGB wagon a pass for today.

Vote: DH

[Sotty7]

Mod: I will be V/LA this week, probably until Monday. I will try and post if I do get the time, but it's unlikely

As in this upcoming monday or next monday?

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC2:

DH (2): mith, Sotty
Sevei (2): IP, Thor
Llamarble (1): Equinox
Klazam (1): Llamarble

Not Voting: DH, Klazam, LlamaFluff, ChrisB, Llamarble,Sevei

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.
Sotty is V/LA until 30th or the 6th.

[Sotty7]

Ugh sorry, just this weekend. Fail.

(Also happy bday

shotty

Thor!)

[LlamaFluff]

Vote mith

Somewhat more lax on Sevei than yesterday given the willingness to shift from marble->DGB to DGB->marble, which essentially means that whoever is with Sevei would need to be in a near allstar position for that to be an acceptable move.

Continue to like pie as town, Equinox looks like a strong town pick as well.

Will explain this more later, in an unexpected V/LA right now, but should be back to normal tomorrow.

[InflatablePie]

I don't find scum putting votes near each other unlikely in that situation.

I find it unlikely.

Somewhat more lax on Sevei than yesterday given the willingness to shift from marble->DGB to DGB->marble, which essentially means that whoever is with Sevei would need to be in a near allstar position for that to be an acceptable move.

True, but by the time she expresses such intentions, DGB was already at 6/7 votes. She says "she's not opposed to [voting DGB]" and waits to hammer. By the time she does hammer, it was practically inevitable at that point regardless. So her willingness to lynch/hammer doesn't mean much.

If she's not scum, it might be mith. I'll have to read Sotty and Thor's posts over again, but I think Sevei/mith-scum is more likely, possibly even Sotty. We most likely have one scum on the wagon and one scum off-wagon. So, as for off-wagon, DH would be my choice on gut, followed by Fluff due to process of elimination + townreads.

I kind of agree with whoever said we should look for pairings and lynch within the pairs (too lazy to check and too tired to figure this out myself right now). It could be our best bet given the fact that most everyone's scum/neutral reads can be narrowed down to about 6 from what I see (at least, mine can), and we only have 2 scum left.

[InflatablePie]

Also, I may be wrong on Klazam-town according to The Voices™. I'll have to look into some things over the next few days...

[DemonHybrid]

V/LA until Monday at 8 PM EDT.

I'll be sporadically posting but I work 10-8 Sat and Sun, and 8-8 on Monday and it's a holiday weekend and yeah.

[Llamarble]

Chris B is like Equinox is lying scum rawrawrawr!!
And then votes me while apparently still "wanting Equinox to hang."
And says he's suspicious of DGB but won't hammer and asks everyone voting DGB to clarify cases.
Scum request case clarification to set things up for buddies to defend and to get townies to defend their buddy / make cases against townies.
But there was townish (weird logic but looked like he believed it and hard for scum to asspull) "okay Equinox + IPie" "No wait Equinox but not IPie" train of thought and "DGBlynch will provide information" doesn't feel like how scum talk about buddies. Also some generally towntoney stuff.
Weak townread. I think his future posting will clarify whether he could have faked that stuff.

@IPie: I'm planning to draw a network diagram once I finish reading everyone in ISO.

[Llamarble]

I wonder if Sevei hammered before I got back from CA intending to lock me in as DGBprotector and use her DGBMarble scumcomboz theorem to lynch me today.
Meh scum never actually plan that elaborately, but Sevei is still scum.

Yeah she was on DGB's wagon, but she was hammer and there wasn't a significant challenger-wagon, which has me leaning toward 1 on 1 off. The only thing she had said about DGB before hammering was that she looked like my buddy because we hadn't said much about each other and she didn't buy the llamamixup thing. The rest of her posting is a weak case against me which is all very 'things I can attack town for' oriented. Her professed strength of read doesn't make townsense considering how barebones / flimsy her logic was. I was scum for ... discussing meta and labeling an L - 3 vote. She harps on DGB and I not talking about each other when I've :barely talked about half the people in the thread: because of my limited access after the first 2 days of D1. Picking DGB as llamabuddy and sticking hard enough to the idea to hammer early off primarily associative tells D1 makes me think "FoS buddy by association to townie who I will call scum, then when townie flips town I'm not tied to that read whee!" mode. Which is a mildly complex plan but I recall having seen (done?) similar before. Then her buddy was the only viable wagon and she was like "I guess she's on my scumlist so I'll look bad if I don't hammer."

VOTE: Sevei
Klazam + Sevei is my best guess atm; they hardly mention each other and DGB has one as hybrid and one as scummylurky and they're 1on1off her wagon.

Onto DH next.

[mith]

DemonHybrid: You're twisting; I didn't say I was looking at the people off wagon

because

I didn't find those on wagon suspicious. What I said was that I was intended to read through the wagon later - the (I thought rather obvious, but apparently not) implication being that there wasn't much urgency to look at those players who I wasn't suspicious of, contrasted to the off-wagon group who I then went on to analyze.

---

So, on to the wagon:

The most compelling point I see against Sevei is the timing (Sotty, 362) - it could be that she believed DGB was going down no matter what she tried and wanted to be the hammer knowing how the flip would go, whereas town with suspicions on DGB may not have been in such a hurry (ChrisB?). Still, if Sevei were scum, hammering would practically be an act of resignation unless the other scum were

also

on the wagon. I think she's town.

Sotty has read town the entire game, so being on the wagon just gives her extra brownie points. Her "aw, DGB is away, I guess this wagon will have to lag" post worries me, but I think if there's scum on the wagon it's earlier than here; 5 votes is serious business, while an earlier vote could have been "pressure" without the intent to follow through (only to be trapped by the near-inevitability of the lynch as it hit L-2 and L-1).

Among those earlier voters, InflatablePie is obvtown. He turned the situation from "a couple of votes on scum" to "a wagon on scum with momentum". Thor is pretty close to confirmed as well; he certainly never seems to be looking for a way off the wagon, plus DGB's last gasp was a vote for him.

Process of elimination leaves Equinox, and the way he got on the wagon does bother me a bit: "Oh, hey, DrippingGoofball only has 3 votes. I want in." - I get the impression that this was more a pressure vote than a "lynch, rawr" vote, but by the time he comes back from V/LA DGB is at 6 and what's he going to do?

Anyway, if the Word of the Mod came down from on high and told us "Thou shalt find the scum, one on and one off", Equinox would be my best guess for the on-wagon buddy... but I am more suspicious of everyone off-wagon (except Chris B, perhaps), and in the absence of divine intervention I think it's more likely both scum are off.

---

In my team thread, Ythill looked into DGB's iso and came to his own conclusions... I'm hesitant to put much faith in anything relying on DGB-posts (she's the queen of WIFOM), but he makes some good points:

His focus is on 110, her scumlist. He doesn't think she'd put buddies in the town group with her (Equinox and InflatablePie = town), and also doesn't think she would put both buddies in the scum group (White Flag), so DemonHybrid as scum means Thor and Chris B are town. Also, we have the group of Klazam/LlamaFluff/Llamarble/Sevei/Sotty7 containing at least one scum, but Ythill assumes both to proceed:

In 168, DGB adds Sevei to the scum group (points to Sevei town).

In 178, DGB tries to direct Llamarble away from Klazam (points to Llamarble town and/or Klazam scum). Ythill sees something similar in 122 (Llamarble town and/or Sotty7 scum), but I find this one much weaker.

He comes to a conclusion of Sotty/Klazam, but I'm not sure how he's ruling out LlamaFluff (I think he got mixed up and eliminated Thor instead - basically saying what I posted about Thor above - thinking Thor was part of the group he was looking at). I'll ask him about that. I think Sotty is town, and where we diverge is when he assumes both scum are in his group of five, while I think DemonHybrid is scummy scum scum.

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC3:

DH (3): mith, Sotty, Llamarble
Sevei (2): IP, Thor
Llamarble (1): Equinox
Klazam (1): Llamarble
mith (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting: DH, Klazam,ChrisB,Sevei

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.
Sotty is V/LA until 30th.

[InflatablePie]

Probably repeating myself at parts here, but meh:

mith's been putting in enough effort to where my suspicions of him have vanished and he is not a viable lynch for today.

Llamarble is leaning town due to VCA, although he does kind of mimic me in 414, which reflexively pings my scumdar a bit.

"Yeah she was on DGB's wagon, but she was hammer and there wasn't a significant challenger-wagon, which has me leaning toward 1 on 1 off."

Buuut like I said in 384, look at VCAs 9/10/11. Assume scum!Marble. He was first on Thor, and DGB switched to Thor before hammer (thus during Marble's semi-V/LA). This makes Thor lean town, WIFOM aside, and why would DGB vote for Thor knowing her buddy was on the wagon? It'd put too much pressure on an already suspicious Marble. Not seeing it.

Thorscum isn't ruled out by this observation, but his early vote on the DGBwagon practically clears him.

In addition, Equi is NOT scum, guys. Scum wouldn't bus their buddy so hard in White Flag because it'd be way too much pressure on the following days. That's not to say they wouldn't bus, however...

Now, what I don't like about Klazam is that he either had his vote down or on Socio during all of D1. However, I honestly don't see why scum!Klazam would vote Socio with DGB being first on wagon and him being third. I can see why he's suspicious, but I still don't think he's a viable lynch for today due to the fact that I can't see two buddies BWing together that early.

Remember, if we ML three times, we're in 3:2 LYLO. So we have four lynches to hit scum - if you guys want to waste a lynch on Klazam to make sure he's not scum, fine. But it does lessen our already great chances at winning this game quickly, so leave him alone for today. Now, if we mislynch today we won't exactly qualify for a Best Town Performance Scummy so THEN we can lynch Klazam.

To sum up, ignoring mith/Marble/Thor/Equi/Klazam as viable lynches. Leaving out myself, obviously. ChrisB still gets the newbpass given the type of game we're in.

Sotty7
DemonHybrid
LLamaFluff
Sevei

Even if you throw Klazam back into the mix, we have 4 MLs to lynch 2 scum in this group of 5. In other words, this is practically auto-win. However:

DGB

(7):

Socio

,

Thor

,

IP

,

Equinox

, Sotty,

mith

, Sevei

We lynch Sevei first.

[InflatablePie]

EBWOP:
Now, what I don't like about Klazam is that he either didn't have his vote down or had it on Socio during all of D1.

Accidentally some words.

[InflatablePie]

Sorry, InflatablePie. I'm keeping my vote right here.

You know, there's a group of people that thought like you, Equinox, and they were called

Nazis

! They were close-minded, hate-filled individuals that just wanted everything their way - are you a

Nazi

, Equinox? ARE YOU A

NAZI

, EQUINOX?

BECAUSE I DON'T WANT ANY

NAZIS

AROUND HERE!

...Good.

Now let me tell you about a group of people that didn't give up... they were called

Nazis

. They had a crazy plan, too; everybody thought they were nuts. But you know what... they got pretty far, didn't they? Because they were dedicated! And strong! A lot of people said they were crazy... but everybody says that we're crazy, so that gives us a better advantage, doesn't it?!

And don't you let anyone tell you that you can't do it.



So what are you, Equinox? A

nazi

?

OR A

NAZI

?!

[Thor665]

I've been avoiding this due to laziness.

I'm pretty sold on mith town at the moment, which is a nice upgrade though it does deny me awesome sig possibilities. The rest of my town reads pretty much hold, if I haven't promoted Pie to likely town yet I'm doing so now.

I'm being pretty sold by the DH as scum arguements. I think the smart money is either Sevei or DH at this stage.

@General Town Question - does anyone have town meta on Sevei? To wit, I glanced over that scum game of hers and she was a fairly aggressive poster with lots of mini walls. (Parama size, not MoI size) Just curious if anyone has seen this pathetic lurk out of her before.

@IP - you seem pretty sold on Sevei over DH, why is that? I'd love to have some brilliance shone upon me so that I too can be brilliant.

[Thor665]

@DH - why'd you choose this game to participate in as opposed to one of the other three?

[InflatablePie]

@IP - you seem pretty sold on Sevei over DH, why is that? I'd love to have some brilliance shone upon me so that I too can be brilliant.

Because her hammer was just

terrible

. She basically stalls out to see if the Marblewagon catches on and seems to reluctantly bus her buddy when she does hammer.

I haven't looked into DH after my gutread/attack on him earlier in D1, but at this point we can lynch him afterwards if somehow Sevei flips town. I think as long as we lynch from that group of 4 (5) I posted in 417, it's auto-win (unless I'm somehow wrong on Thor/Marble, but I don't think I am).

[Sevei]

I didn't hammer while DGB was on V/LA because I wanted to see how she responded to her wagon since she wasn't my top read. I also explained this on D1.

Also, I still think Marble is scum. If you actually LOOK at what I said about him and DGB on D1, I am not as concerned with the fact that they didn't mention each other as I am with the fact that they DID ISO/post about one another when pressured by others. THAT'S the problem. Why go to the trouble to make a long ISO/case about someone you have a town read on only because someone else asks you to do so or mentions that you haven't? They also both came up with a town read on one another when they did post.

Vote: Marble

Thor: I listed town games alongside that other link. You can look at them yourself. I haven't played with a whole lot of people in this game before.

[Thor665]

You didn't link them though - and in any case I wanted other people's opinions, not my opinion.