Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh Yeah Slaxx was scum.

OH was he scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I like how Regfan is still trying to push that it would be my meta to choose Scum.

[PranaDevil]

Oh Yeah Slaxx was scum.

OH was he scum.

No he wasn't.

Fucking hell.

Here's some questions for you (and don't dismiss them as unimportant, because they fucking are in this game. This isn't a bog standard Scum/Town game, there's much more to it than that).

Assuming Slaxx is scum, why is he the vig? Are you suggesting that the scum wanted the vigs, but were that uncaring about them that they let them slip all the way to dead last on the off chance they were still around?

Do you not believe scum would have gone for a vig role much higher up? (Say, if I were scum, in my slot for instance?)

These are EXTREMELY FUCKING IMPORTANT things that factor into whether someone is scum or not. The fact you are quite happy to ignore them and class it as unimportant and worthless just shows that you've not got the faintest idea what you're babbling on about.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Prana, consider this:

The scum team considers that certain roles are more important than others.

The realize that if they choose vig with a high number, they will be labeled more likely scum.

So they choose a role that looks less suspicious, but gives them an advantage. Like Tracker or Role Cop or GunSmith.

And with a scum who is at #13, it's very unlikely they will get a power role.

So what does the scum team do?

They have the #13 person go for Day 3 Vig, with the off chance it MIGHT slip there. Reasoning being:

1) #13 player as scum has NOTHING TO LOSE from choosing Night 3 Vig.
2) If they DO get N3 Vig, they look much less suspicious for choosing it (as you yourself have proven by trying to use that defense)

So yes, I HAVE considered what you proposed.

And yes it DOES make sense for scum to do that, if they place preference of other roles over the Vigs.

And we can't know what scum would make a preference.

So neither of us can refute the possibility of the others argument.

So we fall back on SHOCK, Scum Reads.

See how that works, baka~?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Which essentially has been what I have been saying all along.

The speculation about roles, numbers and probabilities all must rely on some ASSUMPTIONS you make.

We cannot GUARANTEE these assumptions.

Therefor, the speculation and number probabilities you post can never be guaranteed as true, nor can they be accepted as the truth.

See how that works?

See why I refuse to think about the numbers game?

Because it's a lot of false certainty.

And I would know about certainty. ^-^

[PranaDevil]

Except it doesn't work like that, if scum wanted a role, namely a role that's likely town would normally go for (in this case a vig) they would do so higher up.

What's more, you're suggesting they went for the Night 3 vig, over the Night 2 vig... again, not much sense as scum.

It's too many "what if's" to have a scum vig down there. Thus neither of the vigs are scum, you are potential scum, but I'll buy what Spyrex is selling and mark you as town for the moment, that leaves Faraday as the scum. Which, when he flips scum, means the rest of the 6s are 99% cleared (I'll give that there's a 0.5% chance the scum were idiots, and a 0.5% chance that, if Hoopla or Spyrex were scum, they would be able to play the numbers game against everyone else beautifully and have two scum in one group and whittle everyone else down).

Also, scum hunting is still all about assumptions, but that's much more based on assumptions than the numbers are. At least with numbers you have logic to base it off. With scum reads you're assuming that you are correct, and so far LLD, your reads have been terrible. So while Hoopla has a history of PYP games, as does Spyrex, as do I, and so far every PYP game has been a complete destruction of scum, you can be sure I'll follow the same tactics that have taken us to victories in the past rather than change strategy onto a losing one at this stage.

As for RegFan. We're not lynching Faraday today, simple fact is lynching him doesn't close down the 1s for us. Lynching SSBF means we either lynch scum, or the vig hits the remaining scum. If we're really unlucky and neither of that works, then you, tomorrow night, will vig the remaining player in the 1s while we concentrate on lynching other scum during the day phase. If SSBF flips scum, then the vig takes out Faraday tonight.

I still don't buy SSBF as scum, but on the off chance I'm wrong, then offing Faraday tonight means we would likely hit tomorrow with two scum down and a lot of confirmed town based on the plan going ahead. Hell, if the plan goes ahead without issue, and we hit two scum during it, we pretty much auto-win based on the amount of confirmed town we would have (Spyrex, DDD, LLD, Zito, RegFan. All based on numbers, and then Hoopla and myself based on the fact that we both pushed the plan that offed two scum. Which would simply mean lynch Kise/Quadz, and vig the other overnight to an easy win).

[Papa Zito]

Mastin would make sweet, sweet love to that wall.

It'll take some time for me to parse.

I see we're doing more plans again. Can someone chime in on these things. I just want to shoot somebody.

[PranaDevil]

Zito.

If SSBF = scum. You vig Faraday.
If SSBF = town. You vig DDD or Spyrex (your choice entirely, though the good money goes on DDD).

Done.

[Regfan]

I like how Regfan is still trying to push that it would be my meta to choose Scum.

Can you possibly be any more stupid, your meta states that you're a strong scum player, this is a known fact therefore I find the assumption that Amrums team was making that you would choose scum if given the choice understandable and I believe your continued attack on her because of it was completly uncalled for. You pushed on her non-stop for something that wasnt' a scum-tell at all. No one was stating that you're scum solely due to the likelihood that you would choose scum in this game, that's not one persons argument in this room nor was it Amrums however you seem perfectly comfortable to ignore everythinge else and just attack the cases against you on that basis.

As for RegFan. We're not lynching Faraday today, simple fact is lynching him doesn't close down the 1s for us. Lynching SSBF means we either lynch scum, or the vig hits the remaining scum. If we're really unlucky and neither of that works, then you, tomorrow night, will vig the remaining player in the 1s while we concentrate on lynching other scum during the day phase. If SSBF flips scum, then the vig takes out Faraday tonight.

I still don't buy SSBF as scum, but on the off chance I'm wrong, then offing Faraday tonight means we would likely hit tomorrow with two scum down and a lot of confirmed town based on the plan going ahead. Hell, if the plan goes ahead without issue, and we hit two scum during it, we pretty much auto-win based on the amount of confirmed town we would have (Spyrex, DDD, LLD, Zito, RegFan. All based on numbers, and then Hoopla and myself based on the fact that we both pushed the plan that offed two scum. Which would simply mean lynch Kise/Quadz, and vig the other overnight to an easy win).

Fair enough, I think I'm going to take a day to think things over, there's still a lot that I want to have another look at however I'm curious as to what the severe advantages are of lynching in the 1 pool rather than the 6 pool.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

ITT Regfan implies I am a strong scum player.

ITT Regfan implies he can read me within 12 hours of replacing in as scum, using meta as an aid.

LOGICAL INCONSISTENCIES, YEP.

If I'm so great at scum, how did you catch me so easily?

And if I'm so stupid, how can I be good at scum?

[Regfan]

Someone having meta show that they're a strong scum player doesn't mean they can't read nor does it mean they have to play to the top of their game. I have as previously stated been following this thread quite closely and done multiple detailed re-reads so I don't see how you can possibly be attacking my lack of time in the game as something to reduce the strength of the case on you. That's not a logical inconsistency, that's you pushing something absolutely retarded. However if you want to bring meta into it I was mafia with you in Camden, you pushed on bobsnox for the stupidest case ever and your aggression pushing horrendous cases in this game is vieweing as highly similar to that one.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

... I was proud of that fake scum slip thank you.

And are people seriously going to try and use that game as reference?

Did you take that from your team/scum QT?


Also, your arguments are STILL only meta. I see NO intent behind your arguments. You're basically implying I'm scum because... I'm scum.

Good Job, Regfan. Continue to be horrible at this game, no please. Don't let me stop you.

[Regfan]

Did you take that from your team/scum QT?

No, they seem to have a town-read on you which I strongly disagree with.

Also, your arguments are STILL only meta. I see NO intent behind your arguments. You're basically implying I'm scum because... I'm scum.

Good Job, Regfan. Continue to be horrible at this game, no please. Don't let me stop you.

Oh, so you haven't read my posts then? Nice to know.

Majority of the reason I FoS you has nothing to do with meta, your voting and push on GI and Amrum screams opportunistic. You were content to push awful cases without taking a second to stand back and reassess the situation. Your case and push towards Prana also reads as if you know you're pushing a msylnch.

I've got a few questions I want you to answer though.

1. If you dislike PYP so much and don't like to include numbers into your scumhunting to the extent needed why did you join the PYP game?
2. What's your opinion on Faraday at the moment?

[Papa Zito]

metaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

If there's no objections I can go with the PranaPlan.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

It's pretty clear YOU are the one who isn't reading.

I believe I said my opinion on Faraday. Several times. Pairing him with Hoopla.

This is also my first PYP game, as has been pointed out.

[Regfan]

If Hooplas town do you still believe Faraday is mafia, yes or no?

Did your partners not alert you of what a PYP is normally like?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Regfan, kiss my ass. Have YOU played a PYP before?

No, they did not inform me.

If Hoola is town, Faraday is very likely town in my eyes.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@Mod: I'm sorry to have to do this, but I'm going to have to replace out. My interest in Mafia has pretty much dissipated completely and since I do not want to hold up content from this slot any longer, this is the best I can do for the town. I apologize to everyone for my craptastic play.

My team are going to search for a replacement for me, myself included, so don't worry about doing the hard work.

[Hoopla]

Welcome to the game Regfan - I'm impressed you caught up so quickly. Farewell to SSBF.

We should really be getting on with this. I don't want to wait for another replacement to catch up and make some posts, and then end up lynching them anyway. It sucks for whoever that person is, and whatever they bring to the table probably isn't going to be worth the wait. Stalling the day unnecessarily is the last thing we want - today is already swelling with information to pick at tomorrow.

Prana's plan is solid. It should net as at least one scum, with the possibility of two. I think everyone is on board now except Kise. I think once he's ready, all angles of the plan is covered and we can get on with it.

[Hoopla]

I think Regfan is really whittling away some of LLD's credibility. SpyreX; what's your take on the Regfan/LLD back and forth?

[Faraday]

>_> can we skip the inevitable dance of 'replacement catches up, replacement is scum, we lynch him' and skip to step 3.

Also new player? K let me catch up properly.

[Hoopla]

LLD's 928 is her best post of the bunch which decently outlines her thought process. The logic follows in a genuine way, even though the conclusion (I think) is wrong;

So neither of us can refute the possibility of the others argument.

So we fall back on SHOCK, Scum Reads.

See how that works, baka~?

The number analysis (and role-choice analysis) is based on scum motivations to do (or not do) something. There are plenty of plausible conclusions to be made regarding what scum would pick. I think it mirrors normal scum reads in the sense you're determining if it is something scum would or wouldn't do. If you're making an empty assumption without reasoning behind it, then yes, there is no way to refute it. Much in the same way if you have an empty scum read, with no reasoning behind it - you can't refute it.

[Papa Zito]

I think Regfan is really whittling away some of LLD's credibility. SpyreX; what's your take on the Regfan/LLD back and forth?

*twitch*

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I think Regfan is really whittling away some of LLD's credibility. SpyreX; what's your take on the Regfan/LLD back and forth?

*twitch*

You see it too? Awesome. Can we lynch it?

[Hoopla]

I think Regfan is really whittling away some of LLD's credibility. SpyreX; what's your take on the Regfan/LLD back and forth?

*twitch*

Are you disagreeing with my conclusion?