Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[PranaDevil]

Because all the second number does is decide where you are in the list of those with the first number as you. Nothing else.

Longtime players now know to pick 1 as their second number (though WIFOM will mean they begin picking 2 or 3 in future just in case I think). But other than that. It's meaningless in trying to work anything out, because scum picking the same second number wont prevent them getting a role, while both picking the same first number will.

You did read the way this game is set up before accepting to be in it didn't you? Or did nobody on your team understand the concept?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm trying to figure out what exactly your point is, so in the meanwhile I'm just going to say yes.

...

You're saying you think SSBF claimed Tracker to cover up for the flipped town JailKeeper.

wat

No, I'm saying SSBF claimed Tracker to cover up actually claiming JK which looks like a scummier claim.

[Papa Zito]

I got this game by default cuz my teammates wanted the games they got and I aim to please.

From my perspective I don't really care about what numbers they did or didn't pick, at the end of the day they're all gonna be dead anyway so who cares what shiny toys they got.

But I'm gonna go look at those other games and see what magic was wrought with all this numerology.


@DDD: Ok.

So why don't we have him follow Hoops, who isn't gonna claim her target beforehand, and see if he gets the right result then.

Unless the planets align just so and Scorpio is in the 5th house so that means they're scum together?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: Ok.

So why don't we have him follow Hoops, who isn't gonna claim her target beforehand, and see if he gets the right result then.

Unless the planets align just so and Scorpio is in the 5th house so that means they're scum together?

Well there's your problem; SSBF claimed VT who tried for tracker not that he is/was the tracker. I was skeptical that tracker was the role that SSBF actually requested because I have a hard time thninking anyone would think it would fall that far. I know I probably wasn't super-explicit in my original statement but it really shouldn't have been hard for you to make the right connections.

Same thing appplies even more extremely to LLD, but town read on her otherwise so ya know.

[PranaDevil]

Zito, you do realize Spyrex's FIRST post in this game told you exactly what everyone picked in the previous games right? All nicely colour coded to show the scum teams... and all proving that scum don't double up on numbers? Or did you outright ignore it because it was about numbers?

But yes, you should care about what numbers they picked, because otherwise you're lynching without knowing everything that's going on. It's sort of like going into LyLo and blatantly ignoring the previous lynches and not bothering to pay attention as to who was on the lynches, and where. It's important information that, if used, will help win the game, and if ignored, makes winning up much, much harder.

And Zito, why have me follow Hoopla? If SSBF is scum me and Hoopla both have to be scum together (Thus assuming Hoopla actually bussed SSBF, when she could quite easily have helped turn things in a different direction anyway). But if you don't believe that, then we can't lynch SSBF.

[SpyreX]

We need to start chipping away at the 1's and 6's at some point - my preference is for the 1's, considering we have two scummy players in SSBF and SpyreX sitting there. We also know, that only one of them can be scum. I think the appropriate course of action is to lynch one of SSFB/SpyreX (assuming others agree with Spy being scum if SSBF isn't), and if we lynch scum it clears the other and we vig quadz. If we lynch town, we vig the other 1 we didn't lynch. I think this will guarantee us at least one scum, with the possibility of two scum.

So, the main differences between this and my "stupid" plan:

Vigging me instead of DDD is SSBF is town.
Vigging quadz instead of Faraday if SSBF is scum.
You checking a "random' instead of quadz because he's vigbait.
YEEHAW.

----

Prana has absolutely lost his mind.

----

Here's the current state of affairs:

Pretty confidently town (i.e. I would actively be shocked and awed if scum live here):
Slaxx
LLD
Kise
Zito (this one after claims I'm the least sure about but still confident I now would like him to be active).

Fairly confident (in order):
Quadz
Prana

At LEAST two scum be here:
Faraday
DDD/SSBF (not both)
Hoopla

See that bottom list? If you chuckleheads vig me after my awesome flip I WANT SOMEONE to remember that and make them go away. If that loses the game then blame me.

It's not going to.

[Papa Zito]

Well there's your problem; SSBF claimed VT who tried for tracker not that he is/was the tracker. I was skeptical that tracker was the role that SSBF actually requested because I have a hard time thninking anyone would think it would fall that far. I know I probably wasn't super-explicit in my original statement but it really shouldn't have been hard for you to make the right connections.

Same thing appplies even more extremely to LLD, but town read on her otherwise so ya know.

wait wait wait

ok

So you believe the vanilla claim just not the "I tried for tracker" claim.

So what was he supposed to pick in that slot? How does your theory reconcile with both vigs sitting rock bottom?


@Prana: Spy's first post gave my eyes a nice marshmallow glaze so I moved on.

Also I don't want you to track Hoops (well you can if you want), I was trying to live in DDD's world.

Also also you're starting to sound like Zorblag.

[Papa Zito]

Doublepostin, across the universe
On the Starship Enterprise, under Captain Kirrrrrrrk

Pretty confidently town (i.e. I would actively be shocked and awed if scum live here):
Slaxx

wat

Fairly confident (in order):
Quadz
Prana

wat


Your READS I do not understand them.

[Faraday]

SSBF promised content by Wednesday or /out. Why not just wait and see.

Sure I can wait. Doesn't matter that much, just getting bored waiting for scum to post.

[SpyreX]

I'll gladly explain good sir.

Slaxx, at 13, if he is scum would have every reason to claim VT. N3 Vig puts a bullseye on his back and it is a great place to hide (further, if he was scum and NOT scum with the GC a VT claim there looks really nice and shiny). Additionally, since he couldn't keep it in his pants and said he was a PR early, he in essence took a HUGE gamble as scum that all the roles weren't claimed before him. At the spot he did, makes no sense.

Quadz, the "he's too bad at scum thus wouldn't get the scum PM" business aside, is in my probably town list for: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p3064390

Short of his team going "Hey I know make a long post with all your logic being based on 2 scum instead of 3 scum BUT MAKE IT OOZE BAD TOWN LOGIC" I absolutely can't see this as some kind of Kiser Soze move.

Prana I go back and forth on. It is more a gut read from today versus yesterday than anything else. If it were lylo and he was left (and the bottom DEAD) I probably put a hammer there.

[PranaDevil]

Spyrex, didn't you earlier say that you felt that there was at least one scum in the top 4? What's changed that? Surely at least one scum lives in the Kise/Prana/Quadz grouping? I trust Hoopla as town over Kise, and I'm thinking Kise is likely town too.

I don't trust SSBF as scum because it doesn't work in any direction outside of Zito-scum, and I don't believe scum would go for the vigs so low down.

Hoopla wise, even if I wasn't getting a town vibe from her, I would view her as town for getting Goon Cop. No way would scum be attempting to get that role there. It's a role they go for to prevent town getting it, and if all those above her are town (which you believe apparently Spyrex) then scum would surely believe town had already claimed it for themselves. Town however would go for it at that point in an effort to claim it for use.

I'm actually second guessing myself on Quadz, his team already had one scum, and while it's possible they got two scum, he said about there being just 2 scum... of course then he ges and does the whole "Hoopla is the only high number alive that isn't me, who is town" stuff... which just reads like "I know Hoopla has picked a high first number and she's town". Which means... Quadz-scum.

Kise as roleblocker worries me somewhat too, would town that high go for roleblocker? Or would they take that to block scum, and, if scum killed them, not be removing an important town role (compared to the Goon Cop, Tracker, Gunsmith)? I'm not sure.

I do know SSBF isn't scum. Slaxx is town, Zito is most likely town, Hoopla is town.

That means in the 6s the scum is between LLD and Faraday
In the 1s it's between Spyrex and DDD
Above them it's between Kise and Quadz.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Well there's your problem; SSBF claimed VT who tried for tracker not that he is/was the tracker. I was skeptical that tracker was the role that SSBF actually requested because I have a hard time thninking anyone would think it would fall that far. I know I probably wasn't super-explicit in my original statement but it really shouldn't have been hard for you to make the right connections.

Same thing appplies even more extremely to LLD, but town read on her otherwise so ya know.

wait wait wait

ok

So you believe the vanilla claim just not the "I tried for tracker" claim.

So what was he supposed to pick in that slot? How does your theory reconcile with both vigs sitting rock bottom?

Not tracker, N2 vig, or JK; other than that basically anything had a chance of dropping there to some degree. And my theory is just fine given people are working with imperfect information; either the vigs were vastly undervalued or everyone figured they'd be claimed and slid to the players who had nothing to lose by trying to snag them.

[SpyreX]

Spyrex, didn't you earlier say that you felt that there was at least one scum in the top 4? What's changed that? Surely at least one scum lives in the Kise/Prana/Quadz grouping? I trust Hoopla as town over Kise, and I'm thinking Kise is likely town too.

I don't trust SSBF as scum because it doesn't work in any direction outside of Zito-scum, and I don't believe scum would go for the vigs so low down.

Simple function of reads. If there's one there it'd be you and that has me hesitant.

However, I apparently am blind I would like this SSBF-town case you've got laid out in a nice clear fashion.

Hoopla wise, even if I wasn't getting a town vibe from her, I would view her as town for getting Goon Cop. No way would scum be attempting to get that role there. It's a role they go for to prevent town getting it, and if all those above her are town (which you believe apparently Spyrex) then scum would surely believe town had already claimed it for themselves. Town however would go for it at that point in an effort to claim it for use.

I'm actually second guessing myself on Quadz, his team already had one scum, and while it's possible they got two scum, he said about there being just 2 scum... of course then he ges and does the whole "Hoopla is the only high number alive that isn't me, who is town" stuff... which just reads like "I know Hoopla has picked a high first number and she's town". Which means... Quadz-scum.

I think I know the answer to this "quadz slip" but I'm not saying anything until he checks in.

As for Hoopla and GC.

Lets assume I'm right and its Hoop, SSBF, Faraday.

GC protects Faraday for sure (which, if Faraday were caught out of the gate, would leave 3 confirmed town AND those town would 'probably' be VT's which is the worst case scenario for NK's). Also, SSBF in that spot isn't by any means a guaranteed shot at not ending up VT. So, GC has the potential to protect him as well.

Additionally, 5 is just low enough that those delicious prizes (Vigs / JK) have a decent shot of being gone (even if it didn't work out that way) so a GC shot even on a miss cuts your targets to 4 - and 4 you're gonna want dead anyhow.

[PranaDevil]

SSBF has to have co-scum.

So let's look at everyone around him so far:

1s: DDD, Spyrex

Obviously, neither are his partner if he's scum. So they're out.

In the 6s he can only have one partner max. Of the 6s though we have the following:
Zito/Slaxx - Our vigs, the vigs that are more than likely town. Slaxx is definitely town (I can confirm he went nowhere, Hoopla can confirm he's not a goon lying), Zito is likely town (N2 vig dropping that far and scum trying for it? Zito's only scum if he's a Goon and he's covering for someone else, or if someone higher than him has the vig and he has another role, but in that case that would stuff up Hoopla, and stuff up me (they could both target the same person). But it's a risky bet to both pull that. So I'm not buying it).

LLD - Pushing SSBF ridiculously hard, part of why he's one of the main contenders for a lynch. No way was she bussing THAT heavily.

Faraday - Looking over the ISO, it's possible Faraday is a buddy to SSBF, but Faraday seems lax in most directions. So could be a buddy with almost anyone.

So, at best we have Faraday as the co-scum there, and that's somewhat at a push.

Now let's look above SSBF:
Kise - lol, no chance is he a buddy with SSBF, he was pushing too hard from early on, and hasn't let up, at all.

Prana - It's me, no matter what I wont entertain a thought of a scum team with me in it, for obvious reasons.

Quadz - Dismissed a case SSBF made on LLD, while pushing LLD himself, no way are they scum together, they would have joint built the wagon.

Hoopla - Not scum (Goon Cop reasons aside), Pushed SSBF as second only to Quadz (Something I did until I looked at all this), so while it's possible distancing, I don't feel like it is, I agree with the Quadz lynch, and now she's revealed as a Goon Cop, which I've already said I don't buy scum having that low down... she's not scum with SSBF.

So, list wise we have:

Kise ( 2 , 2 )

PranaDevil ( 3 , 1 )

quadz08 ( 8 , 13 )

Hoopla ( 9 , 1 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 1 , 3 )

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 1 , 1 ) <--- Random Winner
SpyreX ( 1 , 1 ) <--- Random Loser

Lady LambdaDelta ( 6 , 2 )
Papa Zito ( 6 , 9 )

Faraday ( 6 , 1 ) <--- Random Winner

Slaxx ( 6 , 1 ) <--- Random Loser

All possible scum, if we assume SSBF is scum are above in red.

Therefore, SSBF =/= Scum, not unless you are 100% positive in me being scum that is.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm running a fever right now folks. I'll do my best to post some content either tonight or tomorrow, but I'm not feeling great.

[SpyreX]

So this is all predicated on "Scum wouldn't bus." with a side of "Hoopla is town."

I counter with: 7 posts and a vote for LLD.

You're damn right that's for bussing.

[SpyreX]

AND I double counter with: Tue May 24, 2011 1:27 pm

Thats when he was last on site. Before then was Monday. Before then was Sunday.

[PranaDevil]

One thing though. Scum gain more points if at least two are alive at endgame, deliberately bussing early on is less likely to happen in this game compared to others.

Second, it would need to be some damned heavy bussing from most. As I say, the only ones that aren't that heavy bussing wise are Hoopla and Faraday. One is town, one is likely scum regardless of anyone else.

Third, a vote for LLD isn't bad. I don't see LLD-confirmed town at the moment. Care to show me why she's so confirmed? She's done nothing so far to confirm herself to anyone.

So yeah. SSBF ain't scum.

And I don't care when he was last on site. That doesn't change anything above.

[SpyreX]

Yea and heavy bussing in a three person time MIGHT JUST IN FACT lead to two alive.

Or the simple fact that winning requires actually winning.

LLD is 3000% town. There is no question about that. Further, on top of the play here there is SECRET REASONS that if you actually care about it instead of pushing up the wrongest river your team should be more than happy to help you figure out.

And if you're going to take the stance of 'I dont care that he is actually on site, showed up to claim in 2 hours when it was his turn WHICH MEANS HE IS UP TO SPEED ON THE GAME FFS AND IS CHOOSING TO LURK AND /FEELINGS" then we're pretty much done on this point.

[Faraday]

SpyreX you should vote SSBF.

[SpyreX]

I will be. Dont you doubt that none.

I'm just making sure there's no surprises come tomorrow.

ALSO A GENERAL APB: I want to bank more time today so this whole waiting for surprises NEEDS to happen soon.

[Faraday]

I don't understand your last sentence. You mean end day early enough so we can have more time later if need be, right?

[SpyreX]

Yes sir.

[PranaDevil]

Your super secret reason should clear Quadz AND me too, but you've got us in the "Fairly confident" position, instead of outright confirmed town... Meaning you're happy to clear player A on that reason, but not player B on it. Why? It's one way or the other here, you don't get it both ways.

[SpyreX]

Wrong. It can't be talked about here but there is a difference and if you can't see it I can't help you.

Of the parts of that post to reply to this was by far the least important.