Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

Thor665 · Post Post #375 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 12:58 pm

Sweet, so Pie is town then, right, he played the card.

InflatablePie · Post Post #376 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 1:00 pm

Thor665 wrote:Sweet, so Pie is town then, right, he played the card.

I've even played the "Hey, he's pointing out that he's using the "Hey, he's pointing out his own scummy actions, he must be town!" card" card.

If

that

doesn't make me town, I don't know what does.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #377 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 6:35 pm

D1VC11:

DGB (7): Socio, Thor, IP, Equinox, Sotty, mith, Sevei
Thor (2): Llamarble, DGB
Llamarble (1):, ChrisB
Sevei (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting: DH, Klazam

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #378 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 6:35 pm

That's a lynch!

TheButtonmen · Post Post #379 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 7:07 pm

Dripping Goofball the Mafia Goon

was lynched!

Night One starts now and ends May 27th @ 19:00 EST.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #380 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 12:51 pm

SocioPath the Vanilla Townie

has been killed!

Welcome to Day 2.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #381 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 12:54 pm

Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.

Equinox · Post Post #382 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 1:10 pm

Vote: Llamarble

Llamarble · Post Post #383 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 1:45 pm

The reason I didn't get in before threadlock was that my flight got canceled and I was at the airport without internet overnight.
I ended up getting back Monday evening tired and sleeping pretty much immediately.
Anyway time for catchup!

InflatablePie · Post Post #384 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 2:26 pm

Spoiler: VCs with flips

Equinox is town due to VC 2/3/4.
Klazam is town due to VC 3/4/5/6.
Llamarble is most likely town due to VC 9/10/11.

All three of these reads are based on the assumption that scum wouldn't vote with their buddies on a small wagon.

Spoiler: VCs with flips + assumptions

In short, the pool of lynchees is narrowed down to: Thor, Sotty, mith, Sevei, ChrisB, LlamaFluff, and DH - just under a 30% chance if we randomly picked a player.

Less info and more analysis later, but I'd like to at least derail the Llamarble wagon before it starts. *looks at Equinox*

Vote: Sevei

for now.

InflatablePie · Post Post #385 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 2:29 pm

For the record, if my math is correct, we have three mislynches. Which, if my math is correct, makes a 50% win at 5p LYLO. Nice odds.

Just a note.

Llamarble · Post Post #386 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 3:12 pm

Thor665 wrote:@IP - you're certainly entitled to that opinion but considering the timing of the discussion...naaaah. I stand by that read.

I don't really like the Sotty or DH votes, can those wagons die please?

Putting DGB to L-1 yesterday would have been tech. Putting her on it today should at least get other people to comment on the wagon more, so it's at least partly tech.

Pushing scumwagon? Check. Making it difficult for himself to get onto potential counterwagons? Check.
DGB also pinned her counterwagoning / lynchavoidance hopes on the Thor wagon.
Thor is going back on my townlist.

Klazam was scummy early for "look at me I'm not sheeping the IPie wagon!" and lowhangingfruitlogic.
He followed with:
'Socio is scummy for voting me without much logic and not posting much content; everybody else is null-town based on oneliners.'
Then it's chainsaws wheee as he defends DGB and pushes on SocioPath, saying Socio is trying to paint DGB as scummy to discredit her attacks on him.

DGB puts him in the hybrid column and likes Llamafluff's aggressive jump on him, which reminds me EXACTLY of how Yos treated his Darlabuddy in Dilemma mafia.

As for IPie's observation:

TheButtonmen wrote:
D1VC2:

Klazam (3):, LlamaFluff, Socio, Llamarble
InflatablePie (2):, Thor, Klazam
Socio (2): DGB, Equinox
Equinow (1): ChrisB
Llamarble (1): Sotty
DH (1): IP
LlamaFluff (1): DH

Not Voting: mith, Sevei

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Shortly after this, Thor moved his vote to Klazam and called for a quickwagon. Klazam's Sociovote comes after that.
So at the time of Klazam's Sociovote Socio was the only player other than Klazam with more than one voter.
I don't find scum putting votes near each other unlikely in that situation.
And as it's starting to look like DGB is going down:

Klazam wrote:All right. The buzz in my hive(My teammates, if its not being obvious) is telling me to look @ DGB.

I'm looking and i'm finding DGB very unreadable.

Am i correct in assuming that the main case on DGB is mainly about how DGB cannot say Sociopath is town? What else? If you all could clarify this, it would be awesome.

Your teammates told you to look at DGB? They had no observations, just wanted you to look?
And you "find her very unreadable" but are defending her / requesting case clarification / attacking her attacker as twisting her words??
Nonono.
VOTE: Klazam

I suppose I'll dump this and keep analyzing.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #387 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:25 pm

I'd like to get a general opinion on whether or not people believe that scum would be more inclined not to bus, especially with someone like DGB. I would suggest that we narrow the lynch pool to the people off of the wagon (and yes, that includes me as well, if needed), but I'd like a show of hands of the people who believe that scum would be resistant to bus (and therefore, have at least one off of the wagon, most likely).

Llamarble · Post Post #388 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:36 pm

Equinox is even more town.
She was an important/pivotal vote in helping lynch DGB and IPie's logic about scum not votepiling applies well to her.
Also she didn't know how many votes it took to hammer, which is a weird thing for scum to invent & a much more likely error for town than for scum.
She used the "X shares my wavelength" logic that has been a favorite towntell of mine lately.
The "secretmetatell" business is weird/clever misdirection if she's scum.
And she's trying to figure out the game / scumhunting / all the usual nice towntelly things.

@DH: It seems very likely to me at least one scum was not on the wagon. Still loading game into brain though.

Socio makes an interesting case against Mith so he's up next.

ISO · Post Post #389 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:49 pm

I'll read through the DGB-wagon later, but I'm not overly suspicious of any of that bunch given the flip. Why Sevei, IP?

Of those off wagon...

Public Enemy #1: DemonHybrid. Already obvscum, his posts after the DGB wagon ramped up were dreadful... promise of wall post, still working on wall post, incomplete wall post with arbitrary point system, excuse for incompleteness of wall post, more stalling on conclusion of wall post, "Just wanted to show that I'm not bullshitting and active lurking.", "I hate my job so no conclusion for you". Meh does not even begin to cover my feeling on this.

Klazam: Early in the wagon, strongly attacking SocioPath. And then we have 283, which is almost as bad as the above series of DemonHybrid posts in fewer words.

Llamarble: Suspicious early on, and not a lot of content late. Also: "Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later." (more broken promises, my heart can't take much more of this).

LlamaFluff: Most vocal defender of DGB... which is a bit risky if he's scum, since he might have expected that to draw attention if she were lynched (which looked almost certain by the time he really started pushing her defense). So, suspect for being on the wrong side of the tracks, but his posting feels town despite that.

ChrisB: I read him as town consistently yesterday... In light of the flip, the vote for Llamarble over DGB looks bad (but that was my first instinct as well, so hard to blame him for it), and I'm a little wary of the "Should I hammer?" post.

Llamarble · Post Post #390 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:06 pm

I had limited access the whole time I was in California and I got home late due to flight issues so I never got to deepananalyze before the hammer.
I was expecting D1 to last closer to 2 weeks than 1 so my limited availability 17-22 would be a non-issue, but then it didn't and TORNADOES.

A thought:
The lover mechanic means we have to hit only one of the 2 scum, so drawing a network with edges representing buddypairs and nodes representing individuals and erasing lines between unlikely scumbuddies may generate a strategy whereby we can reduce things down to a very small number of viable scumteams with a couple of lynches. I'll look into this more once I'm done catching up.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #391 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:09 pm

I didn't say that I wasn't concluding because I hated my job, so yeah.

mith, why didn't you comment on the on-wagon vs off-wagon votes, especially when I commented that I was off of the wagon? Do you think that one of the scum is off of the wagon?

DemonHybrid · Post Post #392 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:10 pm

Also, where is your vote on me?

ISO · Post Post #393 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:21 pm

Obviously I think at least one of the scum is off the wagon if I'm "not overly suspicious" of those on it.

Vote: DemonHybrid

DemonHybrid · Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:25 pm

mith wrote:Obviously I think at least one of the scum is off the wagon if I'm "not overly suspicious" of those on it.

Vote: DemonHybrid

What?

So...are you suspicious of the people off of the wagon BECAUSE you aren't suspicious of the people on it? Or...do you actually have reasons for suspecting who you do? That was a weird statement.

Equinox · Post Post #395 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:33 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:I'd like to get a general opinion on whether or not people believe that scum would be more inclined not to bus, especially with someone like DGB.

Bussing early game-wise in White Flag isn't impossible, but I believe that if scum bussed at all, their votes would be one of the last ones on the wagon. Playing the rest of the game in sudden death mode would be insanely scary, and scum would figure that everyone would be on the lookout for possible connections.

That being said, I'd be more interested in the votes off the wagon right now; I highly doubt that both scum would bus, and it's much more likely that at least one -- if not both -- of her buddies did not bus.

Llamarble wrote:Equinox is even more town.

Okay, this is the sort of thing that raises my hackles. I vote you straight out of the gate, and then you present this case for why I am town, the majority of which were from Day 1 actions. The only thing that changed about me was my vote on DrippingGoofball's wagon; everything else still had the shadow of "Equinox snowed me completely in Mini 1073." Heck, I was your top town read that game for doing "all the usual nice towntelly things."

I don't think my vote on DrippingGoofball was all that pivotal, either. If anything, I think my case on her was largely ignored, and my vote came after others had already piled on. You have seen me bus before, too.

Yeah, don't buddy up to the Equinox. It doesn't work.

Sorry, InflatablePie. I'm keeping my vote right here.

Llamarble · Post Post #396 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 6:05 pm

Uh, for one thing helping lynch scum is like one of the least ambiguous towntells, so yeah that matters.
The Equinox snowshadow thing didn't stop me from correctly townreading you in The Mafia With the Hydras and it hasn't stopped me from thinking you're town here.
It's more a pridewound that I remember when I play with you.
And I think I am significantly better than I was then at grasping which of "all the usual nice towntelly things" are genuine anyway.

I talked about you because I'm catching up and reading everybody (people I thought most about yesterday first and now Mith because I wondered why you didn't die after reading you and then read SocioPath and understood his dying made sense and I'm now studying his case against Mith because we should respect the dead's reads more than we do), not because you voted me.

Llamarble · Post Post #397 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 6:11 pm

Also that whole "I'm not obvtown rawr" thing is NOT a scumreaction. Scum WANT to be part of a townalliance.
I feel ridiculous arguing with you that reading you as town is legitimate.
It's like scum who argue that you're finding them scummy for the wrong reasons, except backwards.

Llamarble · Post Post #398 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 7:10 pm

Ooh I like Mith for insightfulness and game-figuring-out efforts. Serious sense being made there. Example:
He dislikes people who do the "You like A & B for scum so why vote for A not B" thing and then catches DGB at it and it contributes to his scumread of her.
That Socio case against him is really pretty toothless on close examination; his rebuttal is good.
His DGB vote is late on the wagon but it seems genuine.

TheButtonmen · Post Post #399 (ISO) » Thu May 26, 2011 8:16 pm

D2VC1:

Llamarble (1): Equinox
Sevei (1): IP
Klazam (1): Llamarble
DH (1): mith

Not Voting: DH, Klazam, LlamaFluff, ChrisB, Llamarble, Thor, Sotty, Sevei

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.
Chris B is on V/LA until the 31st.