Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

Lady Lambdadelta; you've been online on and off for the last hour or so. It doesn't take that long to skim what's happening and claim.

[quadz08]

DDD: So, what you're saying is, because one person already flipped scum already flipped scum, it's more likely that I was forced to take another hypothetical scum PM, even though the most likely PM distribution is 3:1 town:scum?

[SpyreX]

(Assuming they aren't on drugs, there is not a "likely" pm distribution as each game would be independent of the others)
(They aren't on drugs)
LLD needs to get in here so we can finish this up.

[Slaxx]

>.< I am still here, I am falling really far behind. Is it essential we go in order or can I claim?

[SpyreX]

Use this time to catch up.

Go in order the end is in sight.

[quadz08]

Ehhhhhhh. There's a 3/13 chance of any team getting a scum PM in each game, while there's a 10/13 chance of getting a town PM. This means you're 3 times more likely to get a town PM than a scum one. Statistically, the most likely distribution of role PMs is 3:1.

But whatever, it doesn't really matter.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD: So, what you're saying is, because one person already flipped scum already flipped scum, it's more likely that I was forced to take another hypothetical scum PM, even though the most likely PM distribution is 3:1 town:scum?

If we know none of your teams' flips what are the odds that your team got 0 scum PMs?
(10/13)^4 = 35.0128%

We know one of your partners flipped scum in a completed game, what are the odds your team got 0 scum PMs?
0%

You see how that changed? Well all of the percentages change because they still sum up to 100% but the chance that your team drew all town has to be redistributed throughout the possibilities.

Other players were making conditional states; IF quadz' team recieved 0 or 1 scum PMs then he can't be scum because they wouldn't give their single scum PM to him. And that statement applied 77% of the time [the probability a team draws 0 or 1 scum PMs]; but given Singer flipped scum that statement only applies 45% of the time [the probability a team draws three town PMs when we know they drew a scum PM] and thus is not very useful anymore.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh I'm sorry. I got into a rage fight in [redacted].

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[SpyreX]

You picked?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I chose tracker, because I thought everyone above me would be grabbing for the Vigs and Roleblocker/Jailkeeper.

[Papa Zito]

y halo thar

I'm reading this mess brb

[PranaDevil]

Sod reading, just claim at the moment.

[SpyreX]

Sod reading, just claim at the moment.

[Papa Zito]

K.

I'll be your vig for tonight.

[Papa Zito]

(still reading [not happy] tho)

[Slaxx]

And I will be tomorrow's vig.

[Papa Zito]

So Prana continues true to form. Lynch plz.

<3 Kise. Why is Hoops scum tho? (Agree with DDD)

<3 LLD, that's good votes. (sidenote: Prana's sudden LLD-is-scum is lulz, along with the pairing nonsense)

blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh massclaim bs

DDD, Quadz has done some things, who's scummier of the two?

[SpyreX]

Slaxxxx your impatience ffaaa

My notes have that at everyone but faraday.

[Slaxx]

Faraday claimed vt. I think.

[SpyreX]

Where?

And VT to what?

Youuuuuu

[Kise]

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p3063639
Pretty much PoE as everyone else is town. I like quadz at the moment but my QT is still screaming for Smash's death. He apparently was around to see we were claiming, but hasn't made mention of anything else. The fact no one else is jumping on this is troubling. I'm contemplating whether scum would deliberately avoid him, figuring the town would get him. His tracker claim is messy though and screams "BUS ME". Vote stays, actually.

Result time. Makes no matter to me if Faraday claims what he went for.

@Prana: Would it be too much to openly coordinate tonight with you? I haz idea if u haz ears.

[Kise]

One of the nillas are lying. No freaking way am I the only person to consider 3SRB.
Also: Rolecop?

[SpyreX]

Ohh Kise I've got the brewings of an idea.

Although I'm curious what you've got up your sleeves.

(and yes I'm almost thinking not one but TWO nillas are lying OOUUU)

[Kise]

Nah, scum wouldn't go for rolecop and tracker. One of the trackers (coughSmashcoughcough) attempted to play as the mafia's investigator.

Also @PZ: Hoopla's behavior today keeps her there as well.

[SpyreX]

1. Kise ( 2 , 2 ) 3-Shot RB
2. PranaDevil ( 3 , 1 ) Tracker
3. GreyICE ( 7 , 1 ) JK
4. quadz08 ( 8 , 13 ) VT-Tracker
5. Hoopla ( 9 , 1 ) Goon Cop
6. Amrun ( 9 , 3 ) Gunsmith
7. Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 1 , 3 ) VT - Tracker
8. Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 1 , 1 ) VT - Gunsmith
9. SpyreX ( 1 , 1 ) VT - Goon Cop
10. Lady LambdaDelta ( 6 , 2 ) VT -Tracker
11. Papa Zito ( 6 , 9 ) 2NV
12. Faraday ( 6 , 1 ) VT - BLUEBERRIES
13. Slaxx ( 6 , 1 ) 3NV

-----

So, now lets play the results game and see if anything cool shakes out.

I'm still absolutely confident on Kise town. I'm leaning towards Prana town a lot more after today AND I've been yelled at pretty consistently about quadz town from a million sources (while I still dont like it).

Initial thoughts:
1.Kise blows all his shots tonight within a pool.
2.)PZ shoots one of (Faraday / SSBF)
2a.)The other gets lynched.
3.)Tracker tracks someone NOT being shot and NOT being blocked (this, at this point, is a pretty narrow pool).
4.)Hoopla checks quadz.