Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 7:41 am

Post by PranaDevil »

quadz08 wrote:Prana's 321 is him uber-buddying Hoopla... but he says he "doesn't buy Hoopla-town." I was about to call him out for scumminess based on the buddying, but I'm not sure how to read it mixed with the Hoopla-scum bit. Figured I'd point it out, at least.

Obviously I meant I don't buy Hoopla-scum.

Also, you say LLD is scum, but are leaning scum on me, do you therefore buy me and LLD as scum together?

I'm also glad you buy Amrun's Gunsmith claim... especially as it's day 2 and he was night killed, thus is confirmed as town Gunsmith.

Also, claim wise, where do you stand? Not "yes we should claim" or "no we shouldn't". It's been decided we are. How do you feel the claiming should go Quadz? This is something that you should have been mentioning in that post regardless. Do we go straight from the top down, or reveal all Vanillas first?

My main worry with the "all vanillas reveal first" stuff is that we run the risk of waiting for people to actually show up just to make their initial "I'm a VT/Not a VT" claim, only to then have to wait a second time for them to give what role they have. It would be better to just go top to bottom to save time and still get the same info.
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 7:45 am

Post by Faraday »

Some far smarter than me thinks top down is far better because :

-Scum now have 3 safeclaims if they're vanilla. They can safely claim
- There's no reason for scum to lie espeically now as any role can be justifiably given as a pick due to the inherent WIFOM. They also know their scumbuddies roles which can be safely claimed.
- Scum are more likely to be in the unique numbers via number theory alone. With 1 in each subset it makes more sense to go top down.
- This gives less opportunity for scum on the top of the list to fakeclaim where it might be more beneficial for them to obscure a role. If it's top down it means scum can't fakeclaim to hide something like a vig.

So yeah, we should do this top down.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 7:56 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Quadz wrote:
LLD 299... what? where in the world did you get the idea that Amrun was scum's only PR? Pushing big wagon with weak reasoning? CHECK.


I already said that this was a mistake on my part and rectified that claim. I was on a wrong track entirely.

But what IS interesting is how you say I'm pushing a big wagon with weak reasoning... and fail to comment on my 10 point case which was fairly STRONG reasoning.

Hmmm.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:05 am

Post by zoraster »

Day 2 Vote Count

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Faraday ( 1 ) SpyreX,
(L - 5 )

Hoopla ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Kise ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Lady LambdaDelta ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Papa Zito ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

PranaDevil ( 2 ) Papa Zito, Lady LambdaDelta,
(L - 4 )

quadz08 ( 2 ) Hoopla, PranaDevil,
(L - 4 )

Slaxx ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

SpyreX ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 3 ) Faraday, Slaxx, Kise,
(L - 3 )

No Lynch ( 0 )
(L - 6 )

Not Voting ( 3 ) Debonair Danny DiPietro, quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan,
Total Votes ( 11 )

Deadline: June 2nd at 23:00 EDT
7 Days Banked
With 11 able to vote, 6 needed to lynch.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:08 am

Post by SpyreX »

Huh, I'd have never thought 3-shot as P1 BUT I think that IS one of the best case scenarios assuming I'm not totally retarded and Kise is actually scum.

THAT said,

@Kise et all.

Bottom-up MC makes sense with no PR's dead. At this point the reason why I've been saying top down is pretty direct: the top end scum (the one(s) with a PR) are forced to claim directly without knowing if they have backup from the bottom. As it sits, assuming they got at least A PR a bottom end scum has 4 claims to hide behind. So unless they're pants on head they aren't getting caught.

HOWEVER, lets say Prana is a RoleCop for example (something that would be TOTALLY bizarro for town at P2). Top-down means he's either claiming it or risking ohh... Hoopla from saying she went VT-RC which means there's a liar straight above (or Hoop). Now, the chances of even THIS happening are small but they are larger than 0.

Again, unless I'm missing some super high value reason for going bottom-up I'm absolutely in favor of the other.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:12 am

Post by Kise »

I'm on my phone. Can someone find the pros/cons list and have us add to it? I just like the idea of town gc, rc and tracker being able to peg lying scum..... p.edit: okay fine, top-down. Whatever gets us closer to lynching Smash.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:15 am

Post by SpyreX »

There DONE god lets move through the slog now to the good stuff.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:02 am

Post by PranaDevil »

Right, top down claimins is a go, thank fuck.

claim: Tracker


I shall claim my night one target and result at the end of mass claim.

Quadz, go.
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:03 am

Post by SpyreX »

GOD I forgot about that.

Yes, god in heaven, don't claim targets until we're done.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:39 am

Post by Kise »

Cool. The sooner we do this, the less time mafia have to go over a gameplan.

Kise wrote:
I have a feeling I know who the vig is.

huh
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:40 am

Post by SpyreX »

(I thought you were the N2 Vig)

So we're all awesome.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:51 am

Post by quadz08 »

First thing that stands out: Hoopla's 462. She presents solid evidence for Prana-scum (not voting despite regular posting, flipflop on top-4 beliefs, not buying Hoops as town). She then presents a case on me that is, as far as I can tell, active lurking and my vote remaining on LLD. She then proceeds to vote for me, despite the fact that her case on Prana is much stronger. Now, I had a town-read on Hoops for all of D1, but her voting for someone that doesn't seem to make logical sense based on her post is not what I would expect from a town-Hoopla. +scumpoints

Next is Spyrex's 469. I am wary of VCA. It can be useful, but it's also easy to both manipulate and misinterpret. The biggest issue I have with Spy's VCA is his assurance of LLD-town. I don't see a scum motivation, except for pooooossibily white-knighting a possible mislynch, but it seems premature for that sort of thing. This means that I stand by my townSpy-read, but I won't be putting much stock in that particular VCA.

As to a massclaim, scum will get a roadmap-to-night-actions, which I find particularly dangerous. We're still in 9:2. Tomorrow, when we may be in 6:2 going on 3:2, I'll talk about a massclaim. I'm unsure how I feel on a VT/ non-VT claim, as it does tell the scum "THESE ARE THE PRS YOU GUYS." While they can probably do a reasonable job at guessing a couple based on numbers, this 100% confirms all town PR-holders to the scum.

Hoopla's suggestion on having the RB claim first makes sense to me.

LLD votes for Prana in 538, and I don't like it. She FoSed Prana once, at the beginning of D2, due to why he shot down Spy's VCA. Otherwise? No mention of him, at all. Then, suddenly, a vote? Because he said "hey, there are people who've done this before; you should listen to us?" Yeahhhh no.

Of course Prana's 544 after their brief argument is OMGUS TO THE HEAVENS. *thumbsdown*

DDD 547 wrote:Previously withheld meta-point

I think people who are trying to clear quadz based on meta-gaming are making a serious mistake. First, he’s almost certainly on a team with Singersinger who flipped scum in the completed game which already makes it more likely that he’d have to take a scum PM changing the dynamics of things significantly.

Laters, going golfing.


...what. How does my hypothetical team getting a scum PM make it more likely that we got another scum PM? This is exceedingly poor logic.

Prana vs. LLD is showing me that they're almost certainly not both scum. It also doesn't feel town v. town to me.

Prana's logic on "lynch scum PR vs. scum goon" is leaving out the bit where we don't actually
know
if anyone we're lynching is scum til they're dead. You lynch the scummier person, period; I'd rather hit a scum goon than a townie who was not as scummy as the goon.

Kise, your question has been answered in my D1 catchup post.

I need to think about Kise's claim and its implications. I may have to do some read-shuffling...

As to Prana's 625: Welp, then +scumpoints for EPIC BUDDYING. And as to the claiming deal, if we're definitely claiming... Hm. I do think all VTs should claim what they went for and why, and I feel that going VT/non-VT first, followed by non-VT roleclaims is the best idea so far. Your reasoning of "wanting to save time" is... odd, at the very least. Aaaaaand apparently it's been decided ok.

I am a
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. I tried for Tracker (Prana you're a dick.)

I will withhold voting til after the claim is finished. My reads are going to get shuffled, I think...
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:57 am

Post by Kise »

Oh... so you were thinking that picking higher numbers would beat out the lower numbers?
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 10:04 am

Post by quadz08 »

I was thinking unique numbers would beat non-unique numbers, and in my experience, picking randomly works just as well as trying to out-WIFOM everyone else, and takes much less time / effort.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 10:04 am

Post by PranaDevil »

9:2? How are we in 9:2? There's 3 scum. We're currently sat at 8:3. Tomorrow it could be 5:3, and the following day 2:3, game over.

Anyways, Hoopla claim is a go.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 10:08 am

Post by quadz08 »

... *facepalm* Durrr.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 11:53 am

Post by Kise »

TOOOWNTEEELLL
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 1:51 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Claim: Goon Cop
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 1:55 pm

Post by PranaDevil »

and now we await SSBF to get in and claim.

Incidentally SSBF, I know there's a ton of crap for you to go through, and we all still expect responses, but your very next post should simply be your claim so that the rest of the claims can happen while you're still responding.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 1:57 pm

Post by Faraday »

PranaDevil wrote:

Incidentally SSBF, I know there's a ton of crap for you to go through, and we all still expect responses, but your very next post should simply be your claim so that the rest of the claims can happen while you're still responding.

^^^^^^^ yes.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 3:16 pm

Post by Hoopla »

And now we play the waiting game...
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 3:27 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

Really sorry for the inactivity. In all honesty, I've felt apathetic about playing Mafia lately and realized that exams are affecting me more then I expected. If I fail to catch up reasonably by Wednesday, I will request replacement so that town doesn't have a dead weight for the rest of the game. Hopefully, stress in my life will clear out a little to ensure that I can catch up.

That said, might as well claim now, thought. I am a
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 3:31 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Hmmm.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 4:28 pm

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

Hoopla wrote:DDD, who do you want to lynch today? Your last two posts have been largely uninformative meta wafflings.


Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:I really need to see quadz and SSBF do something today before I decide which I think is scummier of the two.


~~

quadz08 wrote:...what. How does my hypothetical team getting a scum PM make it more likely that we got another scum PM? This is exceedingly poor logic.


Le sigh, it doesn't change the independent probability of receiving another scum PM, but given prior information the expected distribution of PMs changes.

~~

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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Sun May 22, 2011 4:30 pm

Post by SpyreX »

VT - Goon Cop

This is parsing out REALLY strange.
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