Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[MrBuddyLee]

Meransiel, please talk more about Amrun and implosion. Particularly Amrun. Thanks.

[Oman]

I would also like the above answered.

[Meransiel]

I still think Amrun is town, sorry.

[Oman]

Implosion, and more about Amrun besides "apologetic that he's town"

[Meransiel]

Hey, implosion didn't clarify why he thinks I'm town. Why not push him?

[MrBuddyLee]

implo clearing Meransiel the way he has (and me to an extent) makes less sense unless implo-Meransiel is the scumteam.
@implo, when and why specifically did you shift opinion on Meransiel? You wanted him lynched alongside mozamis, now you're so confident he's town that you don't need to reread him.

I also wasn't able to find anything concrete when I looked for reasons why you shifted on Meransiel. You originally voted him for being illogical, which ain't a great reason.

If you had other reasons, they weren't ever stated, and scum benefits way more than town by being off the record on these kinds of things.

[Meransiel]

I was asking Oman, I know you noticed.

Anyway, honestly, I dunno what to say.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hypothesis:
It's hard to find scum today because town isn't doing much.

Evidence:

* Bella hasn't posted a suspect or voted, three days before deadline. Cleared Meransiel and found MBL townish.

* CES has banged a drum, and won't realize until I'm dead how useless he was today.

* scot hasn't made much of a case on Meransiel, his vote target. I suppose it's not terrible: "But his vote on kunkster is horrible. And just now his vote on MBL. He's noncommital, and just seems to be following people around."

* Meransiel cleared implo, Amrun, won't really say why, suspects Bella, MBL by POE+neighbor role. (Apok, scot, CES also clear by Meran)

* implo has narrowed to MBL/Amrun + Meran/Bella but hasn't given a reason for his trust of Meran and hasn't weighed in on which of MBL/Amrun he finds scummy and why

* Amrun giving/gave some effort but not much supporting detail. "Merensial, MBL, and Bella" then recently "Bella < implosion < MrBuddyLee < Merensiel" We're still waiting on a case from her on her top suspect over the past few weeks. implosion and Bella are entirely POE--she has a town read on Bella and nothing on implo since "null leaning town" March 30th.

* Apok was ok, Oman is promising

[MrBuddyLee]

Meransiel, implosion, Bella and Amrun have all been about equal in their presentation of their suspects. Bella is definitely the slackest. Meransiel has given 2 suspects and 2 clears but not much reasoning. implo has given three suspects but not much effort in narrowing them down beyond "Meran sounds town" "I have seen nothing from Bella that makes me think that she is town". Amrun has said Bella's townish but not posting enough, implo's null, and she seems to be confident in an MBL-Meran scumteam but owes reasons.

Bella+Meransiel:

unlikely

Bella+Amrun:

Amrun's playing for a Meran mislynch and then probably a Bella lynch, and then hoping to out-endgame whoever's left. They disagree on MBL, Meran.

Bella+implo:

implo's busing Bella and really hasn't given himself another option for today. Will need to outlast 2 town lynches after Bella goes. (counter: they're both clearing Meransiel, makes no sense. probably X this combo.)

Meran+Amrun:

Amrun's busing Meran hard, leaving MBL as her only out. If she gets Meran, will have to survive two town lynches to win, with Bella as semi-cleared town. Meran cleared Amrun for no good reason.

Meran+implo:

Both have cleared each other, for unstated reasons, I believe. Both want Bella dead.

Amrun+implo:

implo's making minor waves about Amrun, Amrun's leaving implo as a possible POE lynch after all her other 3 suspects. Would win the game with a 1-2 punch lynching Merantown and Bellatown, as Amrun seems prepared to do. They have opposite-ish suspects.

outside chances: adding apok and/or scot to the suspects list makes my brain hurt. Trusting CES on scot at this point--scot sounds townish enough regardless. scum doublevoter would be evil--day 2 would be Lynch-or-lose.

Note: All Meran scumteams need to get rid of Bella before Meran, and vice-versa, or else they'll have a borderline-confirmed townie in the other neighbor. This makes Meran-Amrun less likely, and Bella-implo much less likely.

Teams that look the best after this: Meran-implo, Bella-Amrun, Amrun-implo

Please comment if you see any holes in this logic or any reasons for additional semi-clears.

[MrBuddyLee]

Team that would be possible after that analysis but if so they're not playing today smart at all: Meran-Amrun.

MBL lynch would be their best case scenario today, and both have been very willing to do that. Bella would be good today for them, but would likely result in Meran next.

Meranscum lynch today would make for a very rough endgame for Amrun-scum.

[Amrun]

So if Merensiel and implosion is the most likely scum team, according to you, then why aren't you voting either of them?

[MrBuddyLee]

I tired myself out doing all that thinking, so me and MrBuddyLee (my cat) took a nap. I need to review your play (and soon) to see if you make much sense as town. I'm also interested in seeing your Meransiel case, implo's Meransiel clear, implo's Amrun/MBL judgment, Bella's suspects, and Meransiel's reasons for clearing you and implo.

Vote stands, for now. Team analysis is a tool to help narrow possibilities, but I'm not going to vote on it and it alone. That make sense?

[Amrun]

Yes, I suppose.

Sorry on the delay for Merensiel case. I've been very busy starting a small business with my father and I was run up to L-1 and forced to claim in a highly public game, which was embarrassing and took all of my mafia energy.

It will happen, and very soon (tonight).

[scotmany12]

I've falling behind in this game. I am a little tipsy right now so nothing tonight. Tomorrow, I promise, will get something substantial up.

[implosion]

Kunkstar ISO

Post 0: nothing
Post 1: minor defense of Amrun, sheeping scot's post attacking moz and meran (separately). Minor scumpoints to amrun, minor townpoints to meransiel.
Post 2: minor defense of MBL, minor scumpoints to MBL. Both this and post 1 were attacking flawed arguments, so neither is particularly major.
Post 3: attacking truant, some townpoints to CES.
Post 4: calls Truant and OGML good flips. Town points to their replacements (CES and Oman)
Post 5: questioning Amrun. Neutral - could have been distancing.
Post 6: calls mozamis's accusation on MBL "baseless." Some scumpoints for MBL. mozamis's logic was bad, but this could be a chainsaw.
Post 7: kunk explains some of MBL's actions that people are construing as scummy. Definite scumpoints to MBL - even if he's already explained himself, kunk trying to clarify it is basically a soft defense of MBL.
Post 8: response to a comment from Meransiel, nothing important because it's such a minor post on a minor comment.
Post 9: extends the conversation with Meransiel, it's still null. Says "I don't find anything dodgy with BuddyLee" - could be neutral, could be scumpoints for MBL, not sure.
Post 10: an attack on an Amrun post 3 posts earlier. Town points to Amrun - any attack could be distancing, but I don't think this one is. It's kind of a bad attack, attacking Amrun for saying thanks. I kind of feel like it's a bad push on a townie.
Post 11: a reply to an MBL question. neutral.
Post 12: votes Amrun. No one else was voting Amrun. Could be a distancing vote. Has a decent amount of reasoning in the post.
Post 13: rescinds a point of the Amrun vote after Amrun points something out. Not as important as the surrounding posts.
Post 14: attacks Meransiel. Could be distancing. It's also an attempt to debunk a post that calls Amrun town, an indirect attack on Amrun; I'd give Amrun townpoints for this, since it probably isn't distancing with Amrun but it still implies an attack.
Post 15: replies to a question of mine. Would be null towards me if I were evaluating the ISO towards me, but I'm not.
Post 16: continuation of the attack on Amrun. It's either an extended distancing attempt, or a push towards a mislynch for later. Can't tell which from this post.
Post 17: continuation. References post 10's attack. This makes me thing Amrun is town - at this point, this has been an attack encompassing much of kunk's ISO, and referencing bad reasoning. The new reasoning within post 18 isn't as bad, but I feel like the way kunk continues to push on Amrun makes her town.
Post 18: responds to my question about his Amrun read. Doesn't specifically look like distancing or like a mislynch push to me - saying that Amrun is scum but not obvscum could go either way because it could be trying to look good if Amrun flips town or it could be an attempt to avoid having to push too hard on Amrun. So this post is pretty much neutral.
Post 19: talks about a scumread that he would have had on OGML if moz had flipped scum. Largely neutral.
Post 20: kunk's largest post. First 2 paragraphs are talking largely about nopoint (there was a response to a scot post which is probably neutral) so they aren't relevant to living people. Talk about CES doesn't mean anything that I can figure out; it isn't really an attack or a defense, just a comment. He says that I piggyback MBL and makes a mental note to review the case; that's probably neutral or very slight scumpoints to MBL if he's just delaying it, but probably not. Null on scotmany. Says the same thing about Meransiel; I'd say that's a slight amount of townpoints. Again, possible distancing, but it seems like the kind of place where it's throwing suspicion around and is throwing it on town. In list of reads, Amrun is at the bottom of the scum list (with town on top and scum on bottom). This is townpoints for Amrun. This attack has been so prolonged that I feel it's unlikely to be a bus, especially with putting Amrun at the bottom of his scumlist.
Post 21: talks about thinking nopoint is town because of how he's pushing MBL, explicitly mentions WIFOM. No idea what to think of this as it is, in fact, likely to be WIFOM.
Post 22: votes Apok as a second choice to nopoint. Very much definite townpoints to Oman - there was a risk of a possible apok lynch here.
23-25: obvnull.

This makes me feel like MBL is the scum between him and Amrun, based on the soft defense of MBL early on and a continual attack on Amrun for most of the time he was in the game. It doesn't really tell me anything about Bella and Meransiel. I'm gonna try to assimilate all of this tomorrow and figure out teh scumz, hopefully earlier than 11:30.

[Meransiel]

Implo, if I was lynched today and flipped town, would you suspect MBL more?

[MrBuddyLee]

This makes me feel like MBL is the scum between him and Amrun, based on the soft defense of MBL early on and a continual attack on Amrun for most of the time he was in the game.

You sure you consider kunkstar's "attack" on Amrun to be an attempt to get her lynched and not distancing? Here's a summary of his approach towards town and scum:

Spoiler: A bunch of crap analyzing kunk's attacks and clears

pre-mozamis vig, kunk slapped at Amrun:

Unnecessary apology is unnecessary. To be honest, while I do understand that there are situations where you can't post and such, this apologizing that has been going on throughout the game, combined with the last sentence of the post really stand out as paranoidscum not wanting to get caught out for lack of presence. Looking at your ISO, I see apologizing pop up whenever you make a mistake inthread, so you are very concerned with how you are perceived in game.

I don't have a problem seeing that as scum warning their partner and preparing to bus them if they don't shape up. Could also be scum scoring cheap points on bad town.

This next vote came soon after the mozamis lynch. I went after Apok, CES went after nopoint, implo joined on nopoint, Amrun went after MBL and CES and looked bad, and kunk immediately hopped on Amrun (for trying to tie two townies together).

Vote: Amrun

.
Explain this thought process:

*You state a connection between MBL and CES.
*You then go on to state your scumreads as Apok, CES, nopoint. Two of which come from cases made by MBL.
*You then proceed to argue with CES, but vote MBL, which although you mentioned a connection, never put in your scumlist. wha?

Why does CES's statement make you vote MBL? If you were going to vote MBL, why did you not do it with your earlier connection statements? Clearly if there was a strong enough connection to mention it, then he must have registered on your scumlist, BEFORE you decided to post one.

Scoring brownie points with town by defending MBL and CES--at the expense of Amrun-town or Amrun-scumpartner? Rescinded the argument within the hour. Follow-up case:

My scumread on Amrun comes from this post. I haven't seen anything that says "town" to me from you otherwise. Furthermore your MrBuddyLee push based on the connections seems out of place. If you had made a connection to CES that was based off of CES's actions that are scummy, why did it merit a MBL vote rather than a CES vote? CES clearly would be the optimal route if you had conviction in your CES-MBL connection. But you somehow flip it to support a MBL lynch instead (note here that MBL is a more popular wagon, so I see it as trying to push the MBL wagon sneakily).

Again, he's either distancing here or finding a safe townie to park a vote on. He doesn't really want to vote nopoint:

The nopoint stuff went past my head, so I should probably devote some reading time into him to see people are willing to vote him

and he doesn't want to vote OGML--the likely next lynch after nopoint and probably also town:

OGML's slot fell out of top for me due to the mozamis slot, which OGML's read depended on mozamis's alignment.

Avoiding nopoint and OGML wagons indicates kunk is playing the long game. Buddying with power town, and possibly taking precautions to be on the correct side if a careless partner gets lynched.


kunk said nothing at all about Tuncali/Bella and put her null alongside

scot

,

darkstrike

,

implo

and

CES

. His townies were

MBL

,

PJ

,

nopoint

. His scum were Apok/Amrun/Meransiel.

Hardcore sucking up to powertown and trying to be on the right side of impending lynches, confirmed by his constant defenses of MBL, PJ, CES and nopoint D1. That would explain why he dropped his suspicions of Truant and OGML--he thought OGML/Apok was lining up to be the next lynch and he wanted to be on the right side of it. He defended MBL+CES from the bad Amrun attack, trying to score brownie points for looking reasonable.

Either kunkstar totally ignored his scumpartners (Bella and you) or he attacked them (Amrun and Meransiel). Or one of each. Here's the attack on Meransiel:

Meriansel's vote (on nopoint) is major scumpoints on Meriansel, essentially blatantly joining the popular wagon cause he can.

Despite that read, he leaves Meransiel #3 suspicion and Amrun #1. Something is up there--the suspicions don't jive. When questioned by implo:

That about sums it up. Its not a heavy 'OMG LYNCH NAO OBVSCUM' scumread on Amrun but still enough to warrant my vote over someone else at this point.

tl;dr: Too much WIFOM for me at this point. Did kunk go after sloppy scumpartner Amrun or reckless townie Amrun when she tried to connect two townies? I can see it either way--I would have made both moves as scum.

All I can say for certain is that kunk was defending town while either nulling or taking minor pokes at his scumpartners. I don't see an easy way to tell which is which.

Bleh, stream of consciousness with no real conclusions. Spoilering this post.

[MrBuddyLee]

implosion, you gave out scumpoints and townpoints based on kunkstar's attacks and defenses on players. You gave scumpoints to anyone kunkstar defended and townpoints to anyone kunkstar attacked.

The only flipped player kunkstar really gave an analysis of was nopoint, who kunkstar defended and correctly called town.

Why, if kunkstar showed predilection for defending a townie from attacks, would you presume he'd be more likely to attack town and defend scum on D1?

[Oman]

I was asking Oman, I know you noticed.

Anyway, honestly, I dunno what to say.

I think you're scum, and so I ask you what you think.

[Meransiel]

I think I KNOW I'm town, and I don't have any strong convictions towards anyone being scum.

[Meransiel]

Yes, that is me admitting that I have little to contribute for town. Sorry about that.

[scotmany12]

MBL makes a good point about oman. Town could be in lylo on day two with a scum doublevoter. So oman is looking to be town.

That leaves MBL, Amrun, Meransiel, Bella, and Implosion as likely scum suspects. MBL still looks town to me. I have been thinking lately, and I can't see a way for both neighbors to be town. With oman looking town, that would give the town four powerroles, not including the neighbors. What is everyone's thoughts on this?

I can't see both of them being town, and I'm leaning towards Meransiel as being the scum among them two.

[Meransiel]

I find it fair enough. So course of action to make this game active again is:

1. Lynch Bella.
2. Lynch me and when you see I'm town lynch Bella.

'So...

Vote: Bella

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I see no problem with both neighbors being town. Especially considering PJ only gives the town an extra "lynch" if a nightkill is prevented.

[Meransiel]

And yet again, I'm confused as to what I'm supposed to do...