Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- You have to remember, he is pretty much the last of the US scum in my reads. He could basically prove that he is not be overcoming my current town reads on the four people listed, only one of which is "American".
I will bring up the basis for my town reads at a later date, after all the claiming is done (you mentioned something similiar, so I look forward to yours also)

PeregrineV Reads

Town: Me, ThAd, bvoigt, TheFonz
US Scum: Enigma, Lowell
Soviet scum: Sathoris

Also, are these your reads? I was unsure reading the one post:

TheFonz Reads

Town: TheFonz, ThAd
Town or scum: bvoigt or Lowell
US Scum: Enigma or Sathoris

[The Fonz]

Me: The Fonz
Can't see how he's scum: ThAd
Think he's very unlikely to be scum, but if Lowell were somehow town, has to be: Bvoigt
Likely Scum, very likely American: Lowell
Likely Scum, very likely Soviet: PeregrineV
One of the following is scum, the other is very likely town: Enigma, Sathoris (there's an outside chance Enigma is American and Sathoris is actually Soviet, although that implies some funky setup/claim combo).

[PeregrineV]

Me: The Fonz
Can't see how he's scum: ThAd
Think he's very unlikely to be scum, but if Lowell were somehow town, has to be: Bvoigt
Likely Scum, very likely American: Lowell
Likely Scum, very likely Soviet: PeregrineV
One of the following is scum, the other is very likely town: Enigma, Sathoris (

there's an outside chance Enigma is American

and Sathoris is actually Soviet, although that implies some funky setup/claim combo).

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p3014880

Is there some reason you believe Enigma lied about his claim?

[The Fonz]

Uh, wtf?

[PeregrineV]

You said that there is an outside chance what Enigma is an American, but in the claims post, you have him listed as such.

It seems like you don't belive Enigma's claim.

Did I read it wrong?

[The Fonz]

Ah, gotcha. (Do I take it when you said 'You are American with ThAdmiral' you were not in fact calling them scum buddies?) There's an outside chance of the situation being that Enigma is US Scum AS WELL AS Sathoris is Soviet (scum). The much more likely scenario is that one or other is American scum, and the other is town. When I say 'American' and 'Soviet' I'm talking about the mafia groups.

[bvoigt]

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

@Lowell- Passing the popcorn to you. Fullclaim please.

So, your role is basically a VT? Also, is that exactly what your role PM says for a name?

[Lowell]

Alexei Kosygin. Flavor-wise, it says I have a vision for my country but no way to advoctate for it other than my vote.

The scum are: pere, enigma, and one of bvoigt or sathoris. Pere's claim doesn't ring true at all to me, and Enigma has been scummy for awhile. His isolating quotes with no analysis behind them looks like he's just trying to cruise along pretending to participate.

vote enigma

.

Is there a reason no one is voting?

[ThAdmiral]

Waiting for everyone to check in, name claim and put up their list of scum/town. I guess.

[Sotty7]

3rd vote count of day 6

Enigma - 1 -

Lowell

Not voting - 6 -

Sathoris, ThAdmiral, The Fonz, bvoigt, Enigma, PeregrineV

• The deadline for the end of day six is Friday 27th May @ 9pm CST
  
• With
  7
  alive it takes
  4
  to lynch.

[The Fonz]

Is there a reason no one is voting?

See my earlier point about no-one commenting on anyone's claim before all are in. We want, as far as possible, to force the scum to be as truthful as we can, or at least commit to their lies early: going 'OMG X is obvscum' distorts the process.

Rather than point out that you forgot to popcorn onward, and drag the whole tedious process out some more, I'm simply going to assume you pick me to go next, and then popcorn to bvoigt.

I'm Lech Walesa, Polish Townie. Flavor wise, I'm a courageous individual and a gifted speaker but have no special abilities. Now bvoigt, then we can get down to business.

[bvoigt]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

[The Fonz]

Cosmonaut.

OK, the thing I noted that I was holding back. When PeregrineV linked DavidParker's claim, which itself linked the wikipedia page on Mikhail Bulgakov, I went and read that article: I had thought I had done so at the time, but I guess I only scanned it. Anyway, the important fact arising from that is that Bulgakov was not, in fact, alive at any point during the Cold War- he died in 1940, before the USSR even entered WWII.

I mean, after the Smarg fiasco I'm decidedly wary of basing anything on someone's claim, but that would be one hell of an improbable role.

[ThAdmiral]

Well that means my reads are now:

town: me, bvoigt, peregrine, fonz

scum: lowell, enigma, sathoris


@ fonz: but then you've got to ask - why would scum claim that?

[ThAdmiral]

also

vote: sathoris

[ThAdmiral]

And because I know you love them so much...

further updated:

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

,

bvoigt

,

smargaret

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

,

bvoigt

,

smargaret

, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker,

Furcolow

,

InflatablePie

,

gonnano

, EGL

And because I know you are going to ask me to explain it

AGAIN

egl/enigma looks bad in the first one because it is highly unlikely that a wagon would have got to 9 without a single scum being on it, and lowell looks bad in the second one because it is very unlikely that a wagon would have got to 7 without a single scum being on it.

[Lowell]

^^^ this makes no sense. Where's the line for "appropriate number of town on a wagon"? Why seven? Looks like you invented a parallel logic to justify bad reasoning and now want to stick with it.

[Sathoris]

Enigma and PV are guarenteed scum, I can't see a scenario where they're not.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

Stuff like this. How am I going to prove I'm not a Soviet scum? I could tell you I had no interaction with any of them. But you could read that as distancing. I could say I did have interaction with them and it would be bussing. Same can be said with any votes on them.

Besides if I get suspected of being mafia it's of being US scum. You're trying to find a scapegoat for the soviet scum spot. You've got better luck fixating on Engima, cause if you're not it, he is.

VOTE: PV

[The Fonz]

Well that means my reads are now:

town: me, bvoigt, peregrine, fonz

scum: lowell, enigma, sathoris


@ fonz: but then you've got to ask - why would scum claim that?

Would I be correct in assuming you think Sathoris is Soviet then?

I was going to scream something along the lines of 'OH LORD WHEN WILL YOU SPARE US FROM THE WIFOM?' Then I remembered I made a similar argument for Feysal. Of course, there I had actual evidence, like the fact that gonnano knew to claim the historical nationality not the one in his PM, and Feysal had demonstrated that he was aware that Erich Honecker was East German.

Here's the thing. Scum do simply fuck up from time to time. See Stargate SG-1 Mafia, where theopor_COD claimed to be Ronan Dex. Only problem? Ronan Dex was an SG: Atlantis character, not an SG-1 character. He didn't deliberately claim something he knew to be unconvincing: he might well, however, have claimed something he thought was convincing, but wasn't.

I mean, it's far from impossible that Peregrine is, say, Stalin, or some other character that he concluded was too obviously warlike to be safe to claim honestly. So DavidParker went with the first peaceable sounding 20th century russian he could think of, and missed the fact that his claim wasn't alive in the Cold War. Or he had a few ideas, but because he didn't know what roles the Soviet townies might claim, went with something deliberately obscure. It's not unfeasible that he missed the detail about Bulgakov's lifespan, given that every other player in the game did the same, at the time.

Also, the logic of your votecount argument seems to suggest that Enigma is the most likely scum, but you're voting Sathoris. Can you briefly explain why you think Sathoris is the better lynch today?

@ Enigma: I don't know if it's scummy, or simply annoying, but your 'OMG you're scum because you happen to be using a method of analysis that suggests you or I are scum' to ThAd is baloney either way. Can you explain precisely what it is you think about the context of those votecounts that make them likely to have nine town voting for another town without any scum getting involved at all?

Besides if I get suspected of being mafia it's of being US scum. You're trying to find a scapegoat for the soviet scum spot. You've got better luck fixating on Engima, cause if you're not it, he is.

Enigma being Soviet strikes me as outright impossible. If a Soviet is claiming American, and there are still two more claimed soviets than Americans, that implies there are three American scum in the claimed Soviets. That can't be the case, even if we did allow for the possibility that bvoigt was scum, which I don't.

Why do you think it's more reasonable to suspect you of being American?

[Sathoris]

Hmm, my post turned out all wrong.

PV is the only one reading me as Soviet Scum. I'm pretty sure he's the last Soviet scum and he knows it. The only way to pin the last Soviet scum would be on me. I'm already being suspected of scum and I'm the best bet to accuse of Soviet Scum. Out of Enigma, Lowell and me, Enigma claimed american and is high on the list for US scum, Lowell is up in the air but more likely than Bvoigt of being US scum. The only one left is me.

He's playing exactly as the last Soviet scum would. After his interaction with Bots he realised he could well be US scum and he wasn't going to get lynched so he gave up and hit him overnight. Accusing me of Soviet scum and hitting Enigma or Lowell tonight, with the vig taking out the other scum he's the last one standing. That's the best possible scenatio for him.

And what I meant with the bit you're quoting is that others and you have me pegged as US scum if I'm scum. It's a lot less likely I'm actually Soviet scum, if I were scum. But there are only two US scum. Lowell and PV could then be US scum with Enigma Soviet. Not out of the realm of impossibility, but then I would be doing what PV's trying to do. Push for unlikely scum scenarios.

[Sathoris]

OK, the thing I noted that I was holding back. When PeregrineV linked DavidParker's claim, which itself linked the wikipedia page on Mikhail Bulgakov, I went and read that article: I had thought I had done so at the time, but I guess I only scanned it. Anyway, the important fact arising from that is that Bulgakov was not, in fact, alive at any point during the Cold War- he died in 1940, before the USSR even entered WWII.

What are the odds on there being only one person in the game not alive in the Cold War and it's claim is held by a suspected scum.

[Sotty7]

4th vote count of day 6

Enigma - 1 -

Lowell

Sathoris - 1 -

ThAdmiral

PeregrineV - 1 -

Sathoris

Not voting - 4 -

The Fonz, bvoigt, Enigma, PeregrineV

• The deadline for the end of day six is Friday 27th May @ 9pm CST
  
• With
  7
  alive it takes
  4
  to lynch.

[The Fonz]

Here's the thing. Thinking about it, I don't want to lynch PeregrineV today. Why? Because I think he's the last Soviet. If we lynch the Soviet, then bvoigt chooses wrong between you and Enigma, game over, Americans win (2 Americans and two town left alive).

If, however, the 'wrong choice' between the two of you happens on the lynch, then bvoigt can shoot the other one. We HAVE to hit an American between today's lynch and bvoigt (well, and the Soviets' NK, but we don't really want to be relying on scum to keep us in the game) or it goes to either 2:2, Americans win, or 2:1:1, worst Americans can do is tie (town is done, and Soviet scum is left hoping the townie will go along with no-lynch and that the Americans shoot the townie rather than him).

My plan only fails if ThAd is American scum. But I have a REALLY hard time seeing that.

Oh, and sath, what I meant by claim logic is this: It's not set in stone, but I believe it more likely than not that the numbers of 'free world' and ostbloc townies are equal. Of course, in isolation, I'd think that Beasts of the Sea pushing PV over Enigma while saying Enigma is scum and trying to tie him to me makes it more likely than not that Enigma is his buddy. But one of those two things has to be untrue, because the same claim logic says that an American Mafioso claimed Soviet.

That said, I think I'd rather go with reads, votecount analysis and connections than outguessing the mod here.

Vote: Enigma

Sath, vote for Enigma. Enigma, vote for Sath.

[The Fonz]

OK, the thing I noted that I was holding back. When PeregrineV linked DavidParker's claim, which itself linked the wikipedia page on Mikhail Bulgakov, I went and read that article: I had thought I had done so at the time, but I guess I only scanned it. Anyway, the important fact arising from that is that Bulgakov was not, in fact, alive at any point during the Cold War- he died in 1940, before the USSR even entered WWII.

What are the odds on there being only one person in the game not alive in the Cold War and it's claim is held by a suspected scum.

Actually greater than the odds of Feysal being town and Smarg both being town and having Feysal's rolename listed differently in the two role pms. But still not very likely.

[The Fonz]

Btw, this allows me to coin a mafia neologism: LyKLo (like low) or in full 'Lynch or kill correctly or lose.' For situations where the town knows it has a vig, but otherwise would be in lylo.