Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Klazam]

Equinox (about IP): It's risky for scum to put themselves at L-1, yes, but if scum did that, everyone might think he wasnt scum for that move, instead labeling him frustrated town and move on to someone else. It IS a weak tell, but still a bit scummy.

Sociopath is scum. Look at his responses to the people attacking him. What does it look like? It looks like he's trying to discredit the attacker, (DGB post for example, where he put DGB in a scummy light.) Socio tried to say that i was taking him out of context, and then when I posted what i felt his posts were made around, in context, he does not even comment on that, making him look like he's trying to ignore it.

Also:

I've been scum enough. Strong opening gambits are town tells. Weak entrances are scum tells.

Strong opening gambits are town tells...and yet...

Socio is town.

He's not. A player that jokes THREE TIMES that he's scum, is scum. In his brain, he is very nervous about the necessity to be deceptive, and he is releasing this tension by "jokingly" telling the truth.

So Sociopath is scum.

Apparently "strong opening gambits" don't include "claiming scum" as you keep saying that I did...and yet...

I'm a daycop.

In a way, DGB is a daycop though...

Then there was the first part again...

IHowever, some of the most successful scum teams I've seen have had aggressive players in them, especially early in the game. Is this particularly different on this forum, or are you just easily swayed by a strong opening gambit? This goes for both VCA and jumping in early.

I've been scum enough. Strong opening gambits are town tells. Weak entrances are scum tells.

Sounds like DGB is disagreeing with a player for selfmeta reasons...and yet...

@DGB - Self-meta is fairly useless in this game

Self-meta is a scumtell. You give your self-meta, then you do the opposite, WIFOM-gravy!

I don't self-meta because I am the worst possible judge of myself. I assume that is true of other people, and that the self-meta is a manipulative device, generally.

This section of Socio's wall doesnt make sense.

Let's break it down:

I've been scum enough. Strong opening gambits are town tells. Weak entrances are scum tells.

Strong opening gambits are town tells...and yet...

Socio is town.

He's not. A player that jokes THREE TIMES that he's scum, is scum. In his brain, he is very nervous about the necessity to be deceptive, and he is releasing this tension by "jokingly" telling the truth.

So Sociopath is scum.

Apparently "strong opening gambits" don't include "claiming scum" as you keep saying that I did...and yet...

I'm a daycop.

In a way, DGB is a daycop though...

In what way is claiming scum a strong opening gambit? You're twisting DGB's words around here. You kept on joking that you were scum. DGB interpreted that to be a nervous tell that you were scum, meaning that you basically are claiming scum to DGB.

NOWHERE DID YOU EVEN ONCE ACTUALLY CLAIM SCUM, MEANING NO "STRONG OPENING GAMBIT" FOR YOU. YOU'RE TRYING TO PUT YOURSELF IN A FICTIONAL POSITION WHERE DGB IS CONTRADICTING HERSELF. ALSO, YOU INSERT THAT QUOTE ABOUT DGB JOKING THAT SHE'S A DAYCOP, WHICH YOU THEN TRY TO MAKE LOOK SCUMMY. WHAT IS THAT?

All right, on to the second part.

Then there was the first part again...

IHowever, some of the most successful scum teams I've seen have had aggressive players in them, especially early in the game. Is this particularly different on this forum, or are you just easily swayed by a strong opening gambit? This goes for both VCA and jumping in early.

I've been scum enough. Strong opening gambits are town tells. Weak entrances are scum tells.

Sounds like DGB is disagreeing with a player for selfmeta reasons...and yet...

@DGB - Self-meta is fairly useless in this game

Self-meta is a scumtell. You give your self-meta, then you do the opposite, WIFOM-gravy!

I don't self-meta because I am the worst possible judge of myself. I assume that is true of other people, and that the self-meta is a manipulative device, generally.

DGB's use of the word "Selfmeta" in the reply to LlamaFluff obviously means trying to prove yourself as town due to your appartent preferences, as shown in your meta. You used self-meta reasons to try to prove yourself as town in your starting post. That's the usage that DGB obviously meant. Now.. The "I've been scum enough." line from DGB refers to her general mafia experience, in which she has formed that line of thinking. If DGB said "I used a strong opening gambit, so i'm town because when i'm scum, i tend to make weak entrances", that would be self-meta.

I would believe that you're twisting around the meaning of DGB's words. Therefore you are scum.

[DemonHybrid]

Unvote

while I reread everything.

[InflatablePie]

Unvote, Vote: Sevei

I think I joined too many games at once, so I'm kind of burnt out mafia-wise and as such don't want to make a big post, but I probably should analyze this game anyways soooooo... time to force myself to do so.

This vote's good though.

[SocioPath]

This is all excellent.

Based on recent times, I'm thinking maybe DGB took to Equinox for her other reason for the obvtown comment towards such.
But I think DGB seems to have buttered the wrong bread.

A new third seems to be poking out though.

[InflatablePie]

*cracks fingers*

Okay.

---

First, back to my early wagon analysis.

Equinox, Thor, Llamarble, Klazam, DH <- there is scum here. Guaranteed. Scum wouldn't pass up a RVS wagon, in fact, it'd be more likely than at later stages.

Equi is town for reasons already stated.

Thor has really fallen under the radar this game. Looking back at his ISO:

Why mith? You hadn't mentioned a thing about him before this post other than "I want the hammer if there's a wagon", and that was during an apparent RVS for you. What changed?

Mith is scum

because he's bothering to take time to attack someone's town reads

while not actually attacking anything else.

Posted on May 16th, 3:52 PM Eastern. The only posts of mith prior to this were:

Hi all.

Why I am in this game. I would have requested this one whatever role my team was assigned in it; I'm town because we were assigned town.

Llmarble and Thor665: You claim to prefer being town - is there anything in your meta you can point to that confirms this in any way? (On a related and more general note, I think DGB is the only one in this game I have played with before, so I don't expect I will pay much attention to claims of meta unless they are backed up with linked evidence.)

(On a completely unrelated but important note: I refuse to use the M word when discussing this setup. It puts us in entirely the wrong mindset. I was winning Vanilla games when some of you were still in diapers. Probably. I don't know how old you are.)

...where I see no attacking of town reads.

Not much time (about to go crush some fifth graders at mini golf), so quickly...

Llamarble: It's a bit early for me to be looking at pairings, but I find it interesting that you asked a question which Thor665 was the first to answer, and you were able to find and provide better justification for his answer than for your own. Feels a bit staged somehow. What are your thoughts on the answers others have provided?

My mind says Llamafluff is raising good points against Equinox. Primarily:

1. Thinking it was 5 to lynch yet strongly encouraging others to join a wagon at L-2 without pointing this out. (Also, the respect-wagon got to 4 votes... one would think a town Equinox would mention that the opposing wagon was at L-1.)
2. His reaction to thinking InflatablePie had been hammered... not the reaction I would be expecting for someone who has strong (?) reasons for thinking IP is scum.

My gut, on the other hand, doesn't like LlamaFluff, and I need to figure out why.

...where I still don't see him attacking any townreads?

Either I'm completely blind or Thor has some explaining to do. Other than that, his posts don't really read anything to me. Not town, not scum, just null.

Klazam seems more town than scum. He's wrong on some things, like self-voting and sarcasm being scumtells, but I understand where he's coming from and it feels like he's actually trying to scumhunt. I don't want to lynch him.

DemonHybrid, while he's been able to defend himself against the points made against him, something still doesn't sit right with me. Not sure if it's be being tunnel-visioned or crazy, but I have a gut scumread on him at the least.

Llamarble. Like I said, for secret meta-ish reasons alone I think he's town. We played together in Multiple Personality Mafia a few months back when he was scum, and I can't tell a glaring difference between the two playstyles here after quick ISOs in both games. This doesn't condemn him as scum, however. I wouldn't be surprised if he's scum this game, but he hasn't done anything outright scummy from what I've read, so I don't want him lynched today.

In order of most likely scum on my wagon to least likely:
DH (just on gut alone)
Thor (may surpass DH pending explanation for the mith comment)
Llamarble (smack dab in the middle)
Klazam (nooby, not scummy)
Equinox (townie mctownswoman)

---

Let's look at the current VC now.

Llamarble (3): Sotty, LlamaFluff, Sevei
Socio (2): DGB, Klazam
DGB (2): Socio, Thor
DH (2): mith
Equinow (1): ChrisB
Sotty7 (1): Llamarble
Sevei (1): IP
Not Voting: DH, Equi

The voices in my head are telling me that there's scum on Llamarble right now. So let's continue my player analysis with those three.

Sotty... the voices are telling me he may be scum, but he's flown under the radar for me, much like Thor. He's also stuck on Llamarble since his third post (the more you know). Upon a quick ISO, he's actually trying to scumhunt. I disagree with his earlier attacks on Equi, but other than that he's put in effort and his posts read genuine.

Next up, LlamaFluff. His vote on Klazam is a bit stretchy, because Klazam calling nulltells scumtells is... a nulltell. Or at least newb-y. I get a funny vibe from his posts, but I don't see anything that stands out as scummy. Townread for now.

Finally, Sevei. Oh boy, Sevei. For one, she's fashionably late to the party so I only have two content posts to go off of. The fact that she's piggybacking Sotty isn't getting her townpoints, the simple fact that she voted Marble pinged my scumdar for some reason, and her own original points are stretching (notably announcing an L-3 vote after hammer discussion... how is this a scumtell?). Combined with the fact that I still get funny feelings from DGB, and she votes someone else but is all "I see how she's scummy BUT", I don't like her post. Something worth a note is that both her suspects had two votes on them before she voted Marble. Null-tell for now, but just a note.

---

Finally, the last 4 players. Willing to bet there's one scum on my wagon, one on Marble, and one in this group. Just a feeling.

Chris B gets a newbpass. Yes, seriously. Voting for the aggressive player is indicative enough, not even counting the join date. He may now be a mafia newb, but like Equi said, it's easy to pick out new-to-MS-scum regardless of prior experience. Are his reads off? I think so. Is his Equi/me scumteam theory crazy? Yes. Has he heard of Occam's Razor? Probably not. Is he town? Yeah, most likely.

The voices are telling me not to let DGB get away. Something about her just plain bugs me, I'm not sure if it's a playstyle thing or what. Looking back through her ISO, she's giving off lots of reads and suspicions but it just reads funny to me. Not to mention the fact that she seems sure every team has one scum game, as Socio pointed out. Would not mind a lynch of her. In addition, if Sevei flips scum, I want DGB strung up AQAP. I'd also like to note that the voices are saying that DGB dislikes bussing. So this post might prove useful later if she flips scum.

SocioPath. I agree with his DGB case and he makes a lot of good points. So far, he's been a bit lurky, though. Other than that, The Voices™ tell me he's town, and there's bigger fish to fry regardless. At the very least, he gets town points for the DGB case. It would be awesome if he'd be less Fate-esque cryptic-y and give some more reads though.

mith is an odd one. I've had my eye on him for not laying a vote down in his first few posts (and maybe the fact that he runs the site...). But he's posted content, nothing's stood out as scummy, looks like town scumhunting etc etc and The Voices™ say that he probably wouldn't pick a scum game as his first game back in however long it's been.

---

To sum up, I think there's one scum on my wagon, one scum on the Llamarble wagon and one scum in the remaining four.

Thor or DH is my pick for the scum on my wagon. Sevei is my choice for the scum on Marble, with the other two tied for second. DGB is my choice for the remaining scum.

If I am wrong about either scum being on my wagon OR if Thor and DH are town, then one (not both) of Sotty/Llama is scum and Sevei becomes town, moving the third scum to the group of mith/Socio/Chris B (roughly in that order). If Sevei or DGB flip scum, it heavily incriminates the other. That's about all I can think of.

---

So let's get to lynching, shall we?

[SocioPath]

It would be awesome if he'd be less Fate-esque cryptic-y and give some more reads though.

FATE spawned from ME.
NOT THE REVERSE.
FATE IS THE ONE THAT IS SOCIO-ESQUE.
LEARN YOUR HISTORY.
Damn kids these days anyways.

[InflatablePie]

Okay, whatever. You knew what I meant. Can we have some other reads besides DGB? =/

[SocioPath]

Can we have some other reads besides DGB? =/

Yes.
Done.

[InflatablePie]

Can we have some other reads besides DGB? =/

Yes.
Done.

[Sevei]

@IPie: Yes, I am late getting started, which is why Sotty got to make a case on him first. As for the comment I made about Marble's L-3 announcement, I pointed it out because HIS pointing out an L-3 seemed like he was trying too hard to appear cautious town since there had just been a discussion about the voting threshold. Pointing out an L-2 wouldn't have stood out to me so much. It also wouldn't have stood out on a later day AFTER a bad hammer or near-miss with a fake-hammer or something.

My read on Marble has been solid since his very early posts; my read on DGB is more contingent on Marble's flip, which is why I would rather see him flip first. It isn't as clear-cut in reverse.

You say if I flip scum then you will be more concerned with DGB. What will your read on DGB when I flip town, or is your scum-read on her solely contingent on my alignment? Will you exonerate her when I flip town?

By the way, the post you quoted with DGB's reads (in which she puts me on the lurker list) also has Marble on the "Hybrid" list, which supports both your comment that DGB doesn't like to bus and my belief that if Marble flips scum, so will DGB. What do you think of Marble-DGB? Doesn't it bother you that they have avoided each other so far, except to say they think the other is town, and then only when prodded by someone else?

[TheButtonmen]

D1VC5:

Llamarble (3): Sotty, LlamaFluff, Sevei
Socio (2): DGB, Klazam
Sevei (1): IP
DGB (2): Socio, Thor,
DH (1): mith,
Equinow (1): ChrisB
Sotty7 (1): Llamarble

Not Voting: Equinox, DH

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.

[InflatablePie]

As for the comment I made about Marble's L-3 announcement, I pointed it out because HIS pointing out an L-3 seemed like he was trying too hard to appear cautious town since there had just been a discussion about the voting threshold.

I know what you're saying. I don't find it a scumtell. You're stretching.

You say if I flip scum then you will be more concerned with DGB. What will your read on DGB when I flip town, or is your scum-read on her solely contingent on my alignment? Will you exonerate her when I flip town?

She hasn't offered thoughts on you yet, so I'm unsure. For now though, I'm suspicious of both of you and these suspicions will increase when one of you flips scum. They may decrease slighty if one of you flips town, but usually when one read of mine is wrong I completely reconsider all my reads anyways.

What do you think of Marble-DGB?

It's possible.


How about we strike a deal. You help me in lynching DGB. It gives you a better read on Marble and me a better read on you. If she flips scum, we lynch from her list of town/null reads and if she's town we look at her wagon for the scum that's bound to jump on. We both benefit from her flip reads-wise, so what do you say?

[Klazam]

AM I INVISIBLE, SOCIO? LETS TRY THIS:

SOCIO: ANSWERS.

[Sotty7]

Equi and Klazam are two posters that have improved significantly. I like that.

I am still having a hard time digesting this DH/Mith back and forth, am I the only one? Makes me think it is scum clouded, but I need to figure out which one of them is responsible for that. Gut says DH, but we'll see how that goes when I read it all again.

Pie is probably right in that I have tunneled a little on Marble and Equi, I can accept that.

LLamaFluff/Sevei/mith/DemonHybrid/Socio/DGB. I think there is two scum in there somewhere. Gotta dig them out.

[InflatablePie]

Pie is probably right in that I have tunneled a little on Marble and Equi, I can accept that.

I said you've had your vote on Marble and I didn't like your attacks on Equi.

I never mentioned tunneling.

FoS: Sotty

Sotty/Sevei/{Thor/DH/DGB} team, anyone?

[Sotty7]

Aaaaaaactually you said:

Sotty... the voices are telling me he may be scum, but he's flown under the radar for me, much like Thor.

He's also stuck on Llamarble since his third post (the more you know)

. Upon a quick ISO, he's actually trying to scumhunt. I disagree with his earlier attacks on Equi, but other than that he's put in effort and his posts read genuine

This implies tunneling.

You do give me credit for scum hunting. But you mentioned my vote in a negative manner.

[InflatablePie]

I was implying that you were the person on the wagon the longest. Not necessarily tunneling. Look at the other points; I said you're trying to scumhunt and your posts read genuine. I wouldn't say that if I thought you were tunneling, because that's not exactly great scumhunting if you just stick to one person.

You seem to have a guilty conscience.

[Sotty7]

Meh, disagree but whatever. That was how I read it.

What is your take on DH v Mith?

[InflatablePie]

I can see it being town vs town (despite my gut read of DH), but I'm having a hard time reading through it.

[InflatablePie]

I've also noticed mith seems to be doing more commentary than anything, so I really don't know what to think of their exchange. :S

[LlamaFluff]

For one thing I am a pretty threshold labely person in general.
I wasn't sure how many votes Klazam had before I voted so I went and checked and the information is useful so I mentioned it.

I already reported what wiki/meta:

On Thor: His wiki comments after his mafia win (mini 957) verified the being town at heart thing & his wiki was last edited in october.

Marf what?

I was thinking your "wiki/meta backs it up" ment you 'found' the same thing as everyone else apparently did, then you asked what it was later.

Also as I've said, I got a strong townread on Equinox that was totally wrong once, so I'm going to be wary.
I'm a substantially better player than I was then, but fool me twice, etc.

So if someone fools you once you never are going to trust a read on them again? By throwing that out I feel like you are trying to justify an easy flip later in the game by pulling out a "remember what I said, yeah I think Equi is scum again" move to allow for an easy vote. Also I think its far rarer to have someone who you always read wrong then someone that its impossible to read.

I addressed the 2 points Shotty made in that post. If you think I dodged / unsatisfactorily addressed something, point it out.
Yes, sometimes suspects suspect suspects. There aren't many "ONLY SCUM EVER DO THIS RAWR" moves.
I read Sotty as scum doing that rather than town.

Well first there arent any (so few I consider no) "only scum do this" moves. Also I dont really get your response. It seems far more interested in convincing Sotty that you are town because your suspicions are the same as opposed to convincing that you are town for other reasons. Also on the same hand, doesnt it mean that Sotty is town if you are town because you both suspect some of the same people? Maybe im just confused about what you are trying to harp on here, but it feels like you are attacking Sotty for attacking you.

My little birdies don't like Fluff post 73 for 'I'm still right but I'm not pursuing this anymore.'
Which makes my little birdies on the same wavelength as Equinox and furthers her town-ness.

Read what I said on this already. Im not going to continue to force a back and forth on something that appears to be an inherant disagreement about something since it will only kick up noise. Equinox would still be in a "do lynch" category, but continuing to poke at the same point is going to detract from the rest of the game, again, read rage poster games to know what im talking about (still working on my big MD post about how rage posting is doing permanant damage to the site)

[Chris B]

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he. Not sure who is which gender, so if I get it wrong, please correct me) got away with in the early part of the game. The reason it looked like I was tunnelling over the first few pages is because she really stood out. What stands out to me the most is the 'OMG, IP is such scum' followed by the 'nah, he's totally, like, town guys!' thing. Being able to do that without talking about what the crap you're on about is bad going.

However, I'm no longer convinced by IP, and that's one that has me concerned. The fact that Thor brought up the 'conform' rather than 'confirm' thing is some weak sauce. And frankly, I just don't trust Thor, so I'm not going to join in on the IP wagon. I'm still pretty convinced that Equi is scum, but I'm no longer convinced that IP was.

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

DemonHybrid - really glad to see you finally realised your misunderstanding with Llamafluff. My notes had you down as being aggressive for zero reason, and continually pushing him, and without you realising, I had you down as very possibly scum.

So, yeah. Since it's been pointed out heavily that I'm new to the game, I have no idea of people from their previous games, so I'm going based on instinct from the way people come across, in the absence of definite clues, in terms of who I trust. In games I've been in in the past, Equi would have been hanged by now, and hopefully rightly. However, I'll be delighted to be wrong, as it's a hell of a learning curve.

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

[InflatablePie]

Chris B: Would it be possible to persuade you to switch to DGB?

Here, I'll even help:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: DGB

Join the Alliance Of Awesome with me, Socio and hopefully Sevei and we can knock out the scum one-by-one.

[Equinox]

What stands out to me the most is the 'OMG, IP is such scum' followed by the 'nah, he's totally, like, town guys!' thing. Being able to do that without talking about what the crap you're on about is bad going.

Yep, that sounds like Equinox to me.

Going by instinct and behavior is fine, but you need to consider motivation, too. For instance, how would aggressive play benefit scum? (I'd say this as both alignments, FTR. Doesn't make me look town.)

[Equinox]

Oh, hey, DrippingGoofball only has 3 votes. I want in.

Vote: DrippingGoofball

(Go iso me if you want to know why.)

In other news, I'm going to go ahead and finish reading and have reads.