Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[GreyICE]

Then why does scum choose Gunsmith in 6th place?

SpyreX's logic is sound. The only reason scum would even blow a 6th place pick on gunsmith is there is AT LEAST one scum above her in the draft.

[GreyICE]

And if she's town, it does seem likely there's at least one scum above her anyway.

[Amrun]

Amrun dies.

Today.

No excuses.

She's probably the scum's only POwer Role.

SSBF dies tomorrow.

This is probably the worst logic I've seen all thread.

SCUM GETS ONE POWER ROLE

CHOOSES GUNSMITH

HERP DERP

[GreyICE]

Vote:Kise

[Amrun]

Are you sheeping me, Grey?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

GI, why would scum not want the GunSmith role?

Cause I see a few good reasons.

1)It helps scum find the vigs (and the goon cop?).

2)It looks significantly more townie that picking a Vig.

CONFIRMED ROLE DOES NOT EQUAL CONFIRMED ALIGNMENT.

[Amrun]

If I was the highest scum number in the draft, it makes absolutely zero sense for me to pick gunsmith. That's pretty amusing, actually.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yeah, Amrun and GI are buddies.

Actually it does Amrun.

Because had you chosen vig or tracker or something, you would not have gotten it very likely.

It's the PERFECT choice for you.

[Faraday]

Yeah, Amrun and GI are buddies.

yeah GI needs a serious case of roping tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

I don't understand why people are bemoaning me using and putting faith in number theory. Town's have wretched Day 1 records when they depend purely on stock behavioural tells. I am brave enough to acknowledge the bleak reality of our ability, and improve my chances in a more dependable way. It's a little cold and soulless, but I think overall it is more effective in the long run.

I'm not completely ignoring individual play - that isn't true at all. I'm making it the deciding factor between where I've already chosen to lynch from. I think that is the appropriate weighting between the two. I'm not overly fazed if others don't want to play the game that way - it could make it unfun for them, and might coax them into a game they're less familiar with, which isn't going to be effective. But I am dazzled that I'm being accused of not scumhunting. This IS scumhunting. I've devised a method of looking at the game that gives me increased chances of being accurate, which is exactly the same as what traditional scumhunting seeks to do.

~~

Having said all of this, I'm going to work on making a better post about the top four.

[Hoopla]

Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

[PranaDevil]

unvote

Amrun dies.

Today.

No excuses.

She's probably the scum's only POwer Role.

SSBF dies tomorrow.

No, Hoopla makes a very solid point. Much as I think Amrun has been scummy, Hoopla's reasoning is sound, Amrun is most likely town.

Which means we have at least 1 scum in the top 4, one scum in the 1s and one scum in the 6s. Unless Hoopla is playing a blinder of a game as scum that is. (In PYP, if anyone could, it's her).

CONFIRMED ROLE DOES NOT EQUAL CONFIRMED ALIGNMENT.

Correct, but there's much, much more to consider in this game than that. For a start, the scum team have ELEVEN players total to discuss their picks with, in essence (their own scum team, along with each of the team members, as they could, in theory, pass messages on as far as I'm aware). Thus for scum to do something stupid and nobody else to pick up on it is unlikely. Thus the roles are important based on whether the scum would actually gain from having it, along with at what point it was chosen. Hoopla's explanation of things has convinced me that Amrun is the wrong direction to go. Your insistance to ignore those points (when you're arguing against information that has proven correct through previous PYP games) makes me think you are just wanting to see Amrun lynched regardless.

Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

Pure gut. I'm just not getting a scum feeling from him. Though I'll take a look over him in ISO a little later to see if I'm wrong on that.

[GreyICE]

Official message from the team genius:

The 6 neighborhood and the 1 neighborhood each contain 1 scum.

Discuss.

Offhand, I'm inclined to agree with her.

[GreyICE]

Also there's no practical town reason to be voting Amrun right now.

If she's the town gunsmith then:
1) The scum kill her - then we're not lynching her.
2) The scum Jailkeep or Roleblock her - thus confirming the alignment of one of those roles
3) They let her get results

If she's the scum gunsmith:
1) She has to claim JK/RBed each day which can be counterclaimed by other players actually being JKed/RBed (because it's unlikely the scum would actually block their own players)
2) She has to claim results each day

She's not the lynch for today.

[Hoopla]

Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

To elaborate on this. Kise has given just two posts in the game, which resulted in a vote on Amrun (who we should really consider being town at this stage) based on a page 5 read. I don't know how anyone can justify Kise's opening post as town - it may not be scummy, but I find it curious that others like SSBF, Zito and myself are being called out for lurking/requiring more input, but Kise is being ignored. I don't think this event was strategic per se, but it seems like there is some sort of protective bubble there, even if that's by way of more people not nominating him for the limelight. The collective atmosphere around Kise feels faker - if Kise were a townie, I don't think there'd be so many people okay with his efforts so far. Scum would take advantage of it.

Active lurking hasn't be wheeled out too heavily in our game, which is refreshing, but I think quadz' posting is the most accurate model. His posts generally float gently in the center of the spectrum, and of the times he drifts to the definitives deep-end, it's on issues not very important or are unjustified claims. To explain this a little more visually, some of his posts contain tentative meanderings, which help take the edge off an opinion he could be called on, ie;

Spoiler: tentativeness

Amrun's vote and explanation before, during, and after that vote are bad news.

Not perfect contradiction, no, but still not lookin' too good.

Couuuuuld be an attempt to draw suspicion away from other scumbuddies who actually did double up

This quality isn't unique to quadz, but it rubs me the wrong way. I think it's because it's offset by his other posts where he is decisive, yet uninformative;

Spoiler: this is what i mean

GreyICE's first post is useless, WIFOM-filled, and has no real merit.
Spyrex's first post is mostly useless; all the scum could be sitting at the bottom, or all at the top. Totally random probability does not change based on past experiences. (There's a little bit in there about scum not doubling up which makes sense, but that's about it.)

SSBF's post is bad. His point on GI has been made a jillion times, and his points on LLD are all poor. He gives decent reasoning for Amrun-scum, then backs off with "but I'm not certain about it."

That first quote in particular is extremely lazy, whilst the second one gives very shallow reasoning despite being decisive.

I return to the active lurking accusation; he's posted many times, and at different times. This suggests he's had enough opportunity to give more, which we can be less sure about with others, but he hasn't done so. And I think he needs to work harder if he wants to evade today's noose.

~~

Prana is an especially prickly character, who has a tendency to play the devil's avocado. I think we might have a deeper understanding of each by this stage, and should clash on theory less. I'm completely bemused (and mildly suspicious of) by his statement of believing the top three are town though - now that we have an Amrun-town, what are your opinions? You were one of several who pushed Amrun-scum quite heartily, so you have some reassessing to do.

I'm going to pose another question to Prana: Which of the following is the likeliest situation;

- Scum doubled-up on a number somewhere
- Scum's picks were exactly 1, 6, 9
- There is at least one scum in the top four

For the last to be false, one of the first two must be true. Most of us are at the conclusion scum probably weren't stupid enough to double-up - so do you really think the three numbers scum chose were the only ones town happened to double on too? There are so many more possible combinations of scum numbers when you include the top four players numbers, that picking 1, 6, 9 as the

only

option you consider is a real longshot.

~~

My opinion of GreyICE hasn't changed - he is still my preferred lynch choice (marginally ahead of quadz). I think someone mentioned it earlier, but Grey seems a little more sedate this game for the amount of pressure he is under. When debating with him in MD and from what else I've seen of him, he is typically more passionate, which I'd more associate with his town game. He argues with me in MD when he thinks I'm wrong, and you can see that is what he believes. If he were town, I expect he should exhibit similar characteristics, which he has so far lacked. Maybe there is a subconscious part of him that is subtly influencing his behaviour, knowing he is a liar.

It's extremely hard to fake emotion in a genuine way, for many players, and Faraday picked up on a post by Grey which seemed forced, and I agree with him. Grey is very emotional, and I'd expect more furious town flailing to be emitting from his corner whenever he started receiving votes.

[Hoopla]

I see Prana's views of the game has shifted since my big post. I'd been working on that for a couple of hours, but I think Prana can still answer what I asked.

~~

Official message from the team genius:

The 6 neighborhood and the 1 neighborhood each contain 1 scum.

Discuss.

Offhand, I'm inclined to agree with her.

If this is true, I think the scum's numbers overall are 1, 6, 7 or 1, 6, 8.

I don't think they'd go for 1 and 2.

[Faraday]

Yeah Kise's only got 1 real post. It's pretty good though. No tangible reason, but eh, it looks town.

Prana's posting is getting better.

Town
LLD
Spyrex
Hoopla
Quadz
Slaxx
Kise

Meh
DDD
Zito
Prana
SSBF

Scum
GreyICE
Amrun

That's roughly in order running down along. Money back guarantee if I'm not accurate.

[Faraday]

Hoopla you played with Quadz before?

[Kise]

I just had a thought, and not to ego stroke, but I see autotown in the likes of a few of you for picking high numbers. Knowing you'd otherwise be an early kill choice, putting yourself at the bottom of the draft thingymajig serves an insurance policy that motivates scum to kill off those more likely to have selected power roles.

I find myself becoming devil's advocate now, as PranaDevil's forwardness reads town. He's pretty much in the same shoes that I am if he's town, meaning the scum are going to pluck those first couple picks in their PR-hunt. The trick of it all is that if scum are somewhere in the top of the list, they'll need to find a way to go around others so they don't shine a spotlight on themselves. That said, I DO like how the other top 4 are not easygoing. If you're town and at the top, I'd expect your mindset to be that of someone who feels their days are numbered.

We're like cancer patients.. Yeah just listen. We're like cancer patients and our only cure is the jailkeeper, but we don't know if it'll work on our side, and we don't know how to communicate to the cure when it's appropriate to take effect over us. And we worry! And we want to live life to the fullest while we're still here breathing and ticking and BABY let me tell you, today I'm going all out! I got a short list of things on the bucket list and an Amrun/SSBF lynch BOTH made number one!!

quadz, why did you pick 13 as your second number? Did you understand how the draft operated?

TBQH, I had forgotten that lower numbers got lower priority.

So before you remembered, what

were

you thinking? [ruh roh]

6-7 probably isn't both goons if they're both scum.

What I mean is that 5 others were in line before them.

Sorry, this town is rife with leaders. I'm not going to be one here, so I'm going to be poking into things my own way. If you want me to be leadering, you better get me a different game, because it's a hundred years too early for me to be telling this crowd what to be doing.

The thought never crossed your mind that you'd die early?

@Spy: I don't know about shooting top 4, man. I think the good of a possible 4 town PRs working against scum outweighs the possibility of 3/4 (maximum) scum PRs. This will probably become a night war between the top half and the bottom half, depending on where everyone's head is at. History has proven that scum tend to spread out, so yes, I'd keep my guard up for any sides. The best thing in my opinion is to assess a player's actions and compare it to their place on the draft list, not the other way around.

Prana is town, I'm pretty sure. Him and I are dying back to back, don't worry bout it, guys.

UNVOTE: LadyLambdaDelta
VOTE: SSBF

I've re-read it several times, and I still can't get over that one contradictory post.

Well I do believe this is the first time you've mentioned SSBF's post. Awfully late to bus. I see you made it a point to cover LLD and SSBF only in this post. Hmph!

As I'm a very analyistic player, my posts takes time to make and calling me a lurker for not posting all the time is not going to get me to post any faster.

In my experience, scum take longer to make carefully considered and thought out posts, as opposed to being more natural and go with the flow. My scumread is cemented now.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3048732
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p3048738
Good posting.

Going for gunsmith on spot 6 is ballsy...I think? I thought that was town's awesomesauce role.

Comes across to me as a mafioso that wants to know who (out of numbers 1-5) are the vigs and goon cop.

Look, if Amrun is a mid/low lynch whatchacallit, I'm cool with a Smash wagon. The guy's mindset is weird to figure coming from town, and his intentions read more like someone purposely covering up for Amrun while also attacking obvtown LLD.

Kise

It's actually difficult to explain my Kise read, because it's all based off of his 2 posts and the majority of it is tone.

I have played with Kise scum before and he acted all macho aggressive just like this, ESPECIALLY in early game when he thought he could get away with it.

I lurked early game. remember my "hai" hammer on KCD, page 5? Oh and by the way, I

DID

get away with it. Hmmhmhmhahahahaaaahaahahahaa!
Good to know I'm your #1 scumread based off 1-2 posts alone.

Smash wants to out the tracker? To do what - prove that Amrunscum haz gunsmithz?

This feels like it's a long post. I'll hit submit and continue reading.

[Kise]

Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

To elaborate on this. Kise has given just two posts in the game, which resulted in a vote on Amrun (who we should really consider being town at this stage) based on a page 5 read. I don't know how anyone can justify Kise's opening post as town - it may not be scummy, but I find it curious that others like SSBF, Zito and myself are being called out for lurking/requiring more input, but Kise is being ignored. I don't think this event was strategic per se, but it seems like there is some sort of protective bubble there, even if that's by way of more people not nominating him for the limelight. The collective atmosphere around Kise feels faker - if Kise were a townie, I don't think there'd be so many people okay with his efforts so far. Scum would take advantage of it.

I guess I should bring up that I expected scum to buddy up to me early and say things to ease my mind. It's hard for me to skirt around the issue but I'll go ahead and say that I expect to die either tonight or the next night. The trick for scum was not to slip that they knew I was autotown, but also not put much focus on me - This is what I expect anyway.

Hoopla, do you get a strong sense of scum amongst those names you just listed?

[GreyICE]

My opinion of GreyICE hasn't changed - he is still my preferred lynch choice (marginally ahead of quadz). I think someone mentioned it earlier, but Grey seems a little more sedate this game for the amount of pressure he is under. When debating with him in MD and from what else I've seen of him, he is typically more passionate, which I'd more associate with his town game. He argues with me in MD when he thinks I'm wrong, and you can see that is what he believes. If he were town, I expect he should exhibit similar characteristics, which he has so far lacked. Maybe there is a subconscious part of him that is subtly influencing his behaviour, knowing he is a liar.

It's extremely hard to fake emotion in a genuine way, for many players, and Faraday picked up on a post by Grey which seemed forced, and I agree with him. Grey is very emotional, and I'd expect more furious town flailing to be emitting from his corner whenever he started receiving votes.

Sorry Hoopla, I don't take these wagons seriously regardless of alignment. Go check pretty much any game of mine - I make fun of wagons on me and mine em for reads. Amrun even said as much. So you expecting me to do something I never do just reads fucking retarded. Not scum. Not town. Retarded. Pushing my lynch on it though is scum.

Amrun - check this joker for guns tonight.

As for what I'm doing with my limited time: I'm poking around looking for scum. I'm not leading this town. So far, I have Prana, Slaxx, Spyrex, and LLD as solid town, and Hoopla and SSBF as scummy. Faraday is either 'tard or scum, I suggest that the Goon cop sort him and Papa Zito out. Which still leaves me scared of DDD scum (since that's the player I'm most wary of being scum when this game started) and Kise-scum. Quadz seems utterly useless.

[PranaDevil]

Prana is an especially prickly character, who has a tendency to play the devil's avocado. I think we might have a deeper understanding of each by this stage, and should clash on theory less. I'm completely bemused (and mildly suspicious of) by his statement of believing the top three are town though - now that we have an Amrun-town, what are your opinions? You were one of several who pushed Amrun-scum quite heartily, so you have some reassessing to do.

I agree, I think I got blinded by me thinking Amrun is scum, and ignoring various other factors, even come the claim. Which was stupid and shortsighted of me. Your post (partly also thanks to one of my team members giving me a verbal slap round the back of the head) lead me to see that I was off in the wrong direction.

I'm going to pose another question to Prana: Which of the following is the likeliest situation;

- Scum doubled-up on a number somewhere
- Scum's picks were exactly 1, 6, 9
- There is at least one scum in the top four

The middle, easily, is the least likely at this stage. I don't buy Hoopla town, and thanks to the earlier post be Hoopla, Amrun can't be today's lynch, it's not viable in the slightest as it's unlikely he would be scum.

By the same token though, I don't think the scum doubled up at all. It would be close to suicide as they would be likely to wind up with Goon roles. The only possibility is if Hoopla is playing damned well by wanting us to avoid the arse end of the list on the basis of closing down neighborhoods, purely because she knows there's doubled up scum in it. But even then it would be so risky I doubt a scum Hoopla would attempt to pull it off.

Thus there's one scum in the 6s, one scum in the 1s, and one in the top 4. (There is a slim chance that two scum could be in the top 4 of course, and I wont rule that out completely). I still favour Quadz, but I wont put a vote down until I've taken the time to fully reasses the game, as with me acknowledging that Amrun and GI aren't scum together, and Amrun is now town... it could mean GI is scum and I've not paid close enough attention after the early game

My opinion of GreyICE hasn't changed - he is still my preferred lynch choice (marginally ahead of quadz). I think someone mentioned it earlier, but Grey seems a little more sedate this game for the amount of pressure he is under. When debating with him in MD and from what else I've seen of him, he is typically more passionate, which I'd more associate with his town game. He argues with me in MD when he thinks I'm wrong, and you can see that is what he believes. If he were town, I expect he should exhibit similar characteristics, which he has so far lacked. Maybe there is a subconscious part of him that is subtly influencing his behaviour, knowing he is a liar.

It's extremely hard to fake emotion in a genuine way, for many players, and Faraday picked up on a post by Grey which seemed forced, and I agree with him. Grey is very emotional, and I'd expect more furious town flailing to be emitting from his corner whenever he started receiving votes.

This is partly why I've been unsure of GI. In the SquareEnix: Outsiders mafia, he was scum, I was town, and when I called him as scum he went overboard in attacking me. So that he's not done so yet has made me believe he's town. It could be leading me down the garden path of course, hence my need to review things.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla you played with Quadz before?

Not that I recall. We've had marathon and plenty of scumchat experience together, though.

Hoopla, do you get a strong sense of scum amongst those names you just listed?

There have been a couple of things SpyreX has done that has irked me. Namely, his push on Amrun which I detailed earlier, as well as a couple of posts directed towards me which feel a little fake, especially because he knows how I play. His activity is fine, but he seems a little empty. His draft position gifts him a low base chance of being scum, but it has risen above that for me. Faraday has been hit and miss - I've agreed with several of his points, but his aggressiveness towards Amrun seems overdone; a shoddy imitation of his town game, as it were. He's hovering around neutral for his position. And of the top four, I think I trust Prana the most.

[Kise]

I disagree distinctly with the logic being presented about the gunsmith dropping that far; I had it slotted behind both vigs and the tracker and on par with the RB and JK.

I could be wrong in sensing that you believe Amrun's selection coming from a townie... but if I'm right, where is that unvote?

@Amrun: You're scum for saying that GI is odd in conjuction with voting him supposedly as RVS, misrepping LLD to death, not putting up satisfying counter-arguments (and not admitting your faulty "assumptions"), and recently attempting to misconstrue my gameplay here to that of how I played as scum in our previous game. You're reading my 1-2 posts hard enough to be able to deduce that I'm playing similar? Don't think so.

Unvote; Vote: Smash Bros

I think it's silly to believe a claim can clear you in a game where all alignments can posses all abilities. SSBF would be my next choice after Amrun. Wagon go? PLEASE. I'm like a cancer patient, remember.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p3049124
I'll explain in fallout.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p3049151
Scumminess of LLD's push? It's not there. She's pushing hard and confidently.

I don't think Hoopla is scum. It's unlikely she'd have chosen a cop-type role as either alignment, though, because as I recall, she hates them.

What does this have to do with anything?

First and foremost, I would like to state my driving force here is to play for points > everything. Interestingly enough, I would also imagine scum here - and in every TM game - would want to secure points for their team > a simple win. If you're scum here and you're not on any possible mislynches, oh well. Stay scared, and stay behind my team in the rankings.

This part of his first post really struck me as off. I can't really say why; there's nothing textbook wrong with it, but I don't see the town motivation for posting this. "I'm going to be playing the way scum would - but it's not because I'm scum!"

That's not WTF I said. That post was mainly intended for the scum to realize that they either need to be mislynching for TM points to make themselves obvious, or they can sit back and fencesit to lose out on points. Also, while I'm living, if I have strong feelings that someone is town, I'm going to do my hardest to prevent a mislynch while also pushing a scumlynch that I feel will net TM points for any townsfolk here.

As much as I hate to say this, if there's anyone here that's scum slipping by my radar, it would be SpyreX. Let's worry about Amrun and SSBF first though.

So the meat of my post is currently stuck in my frozen browser. Yay.

Sounds like something I heard a scummer say in [REDACTED] to try and save her skin. I really really really really don't agree with you surviving today. SSBF will do though.

In addition, my teammates also have an off feeling about it. None of us are really sure, but that's how I'm feeling about it and I want it out there.

Your teammates sure don't like minding their own business. Why are they on this game's jock so hard trying to play for you? Perhaps I'm only speaking for myself, but for the most part, my team is holding things down in their respective games.

A pat on the back here, a thumbs up there...

It's becoming obvious that you're using your team's name to add some kind of extra, unseen justification behind your views. Without relying on your teammates, what are YOUR views on things?

I'll give you the point about GI, as he likely threw an idea out, saw it flop, then crept out the backdoor as soon as [TOWNIES] overwhelmed the subject. Maybe. Still, SSBF >

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p3049374
A woman after my own <3

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p3049459
I'm pretty sure SSBF is the scum from neighborhood 1.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3049462
Jailkeeping a buddy would help against vigs, if the town scooped those kills up.

Which still leaves me scared of DDD scum (since that's the player I'm most wary of being scum when this game started)

How early did you acquire this / Was this a predetermined scumread?

I believe optimal play for town goon cop is to aim for that bottom portion of the draftees.

[GreyICE]

Which still leaves me scared of DDD scum (since that's the player I'm most wary of being scum when this game started)

How early did you acquire this / Was this a predetermined scumread?

I believe optimal play for town goon cop is to aim for that bottom portion of the draftees.

No I played in a game with him where he was the most obvtown player in the entire game.

He was scum.

He's the one player in this entire game who I

KNOW FOR A FACT

can blitz me easily. And he's not posting much.

So I'm wary.

Goon cop optimal play is to aim for faraday and figure out if it's scum or brain damage.