Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[Faraday]

I don't see Amrun's team 'being ballsy' by themselves.

Que?

I don't see any of them[her team] as particularly ballsy players she said she picked gunsmith to be ballsy. I don't believe her reason for taking it, basically.

[Faraday]

SSBF is on crack I swear to all that is holy.

[Faraday]

And this is obvious but needless to say:

No one hammers until the 5 above check in. If one of them hammers and Amrun flips town they just claimed scum and we can skip D2.

There's scum up in them dar hills anyway.

[Amrun]

Do you know who my team is? I wasn't aware it was public.

That's a stretch either way, Faraday.

[SpyreX]

I don't see any of them[her team] as particularly ballsy players she said she picked gunsmith to be ballsy. I don't believe her reason for taking it, basically.

You know her team?

[Faraday]

I know every team, I'm pretty sure, yeah.

[Amrun]

How do you know my team? It's not public at all.

[Amrun]

But the identity of my team has nothing to do with my motivations for choosing gunsmith. I like the role and I chose it and crossed my fingers. There was more analysis than that that led up to it, but in the end, that is all that matters.

[Faraday]

How do you know my team? It's not public at all.

I'm aware...

[Faraday]

Imma take it from your reactions you guys didn't team hunt ._.

[Amrun]

We did. Apparently your team was better at it than ours. We still have a couple of unkown teams.

[Amrun]

Faraday, I think your team's teamhunting is off, because I have a very ballsy player on my team.

Trying to get post up before I sleep.

[Faraday]

Okay well I disagree.

[Faraday]

Limited access for the next 2/3 days.

[Amrun]

>.> SpyreX's list. My bad.

Anyway, here's another list I've compiled including everyone and not just those picking non-unique numbers.

Kise

PranaDevil

GreyICE

quadz08

Hoopla
Amrun

Super Smash Bros. Fan
Debonair Danny DiPietro
Spyrex

Lady LambdaDelta
Papa Zito
Faraday
Slaxx

So after game play today, here's what I'm thinking.

For me to successfully get gunsmith, AT LEAST ONE, but possibly two, of the people above me have to be scum.

I don't think Hoopla is scum. It's unlikely she'd have chosen a cop-type role as either alignment, though, because as I recall, she hates them.

One to two of the other 4 though is scum, though. My picks for scum from this group are Kise and one of PranaDevil / GreyICE.

My pick for the other scum, assuming there are 3, is either one of Super Smash Bros. Fan / DDD or one of Faraday / Zito. More likely, it is one of SSBF or Faraday or SSBF AND Faraday.

Independent of numbers, here are my base reads:

Scum

Kise
Faraday
GreyICE
Super Smash Bros. Fan
Debonair Danny DiPietro
PranaDevil
Papa Zito
Lady LambdaDelta
Slaxx
quadz08
Hoopla
SpyreX

Town

Give or take a couple of slots up and down.

More to come on the top portion of my list.

[Amrun]

Kise

It's actually difficult to explain my Kise read, because it's all based off of his 2 posts and the majority of it is tone.

I have played with Kise scum before and he acted all macho aggressive just like this, ESPECIALLY in early game when he thought he could get away with it.

First and foremost, I would like to state my driving force here is to play for points > everything. Interestingly enough, I would also imagine scum here - and in every TM game - would want to secure points for their team > a simple win. If you're scum here and you're not on any possible mislynches, oh well. Stay scared, and stay behind my team in the rankings.

This part of his first post really struck me as off. I can't really say why; there's nothing textbook wrong with it, but I don't see the town motivation for posting this. "I'm going to be playing the way scum would - but it's not because I'm scum!"

He then tries to mix it up with the numbers talk but he's late to the game and doesn't say anything new or useful.

He makes some points on me, mostly parroted, but one original.

He clears Faraday on grounds of meta and speaks cryptically to him. I could see a possible connection here, but it's far too early to say, really.

@SpyreX: No. Don't even give SSBF a pass to Six Flags. He and Amrun placed 6th and 7th in the draft.

Their scumteam likely lucked out and became goons.

It's a very plausible idea that scum would scramble to save each other and shoot down early scumreads against their own partners, knowing that town overpower them.

Just finished page 5 but I need to run.

What is he even saying here? It seems like he's stretching to draw some sort of connection between us in any way possible.

Overall, it's really tone that makes me keep coming back to Kise. I've never hung a case on this before and I'm surprised to do it now, but something in my gut is telling me there's something here. Last time I played with him, I had a similar feeling and I let him live in the lower parts of my scumreads, going after more explainable lynches and leaving Kise scum alive.

More coming.

[PranaDevil]

GI, Quadz, Parana - there is at least one scum in there. Book it.

I want more out of Zito n Hoop. They're makin me a little paranoid but not slam dunks.

And this is obvious but needless to say:

No one hammers until the 5 above check in. If one of them hammers and Amrun flips town they just claimed scum and we can skip D2.

Not entirely sure how you expect me to hammer a wagon I'm currently on. There wasn't an option to get a double voter role after all. But why is Kise free from being scum? I agree in that I don't feel he's scum, but being as you seem to be just claiming there's 1-2 scum in the top group, why is Kise given a pass?

Quadz is the obvious scum there though, and Amrun is going to flip scum anyway. GI isn't his partner, I'm not scum, and I don't feel Kise is scum, meaning we can dig the final one out of the 6s.

[PranaDevil]

Note to self: When pasting into a fresh window to put a post together... don't hit submit before you've combined what you're currently writing with what you already wrote previously.

Infuriating isn't it?

Not really. It's worth ignoring and not giving a legitimate response to until you actually provide reasoning though.

Gunsmith doesn't fall that far unless there's two scum above.

You mean like how Cop doesn't fall to the arse end of a list because of how good it is for town and... oh yeah. Nobody picked it in PYP 3, and I wound up with it in PYP 4 because it would have vanished again if I hadn't, and I was 14th. All it needs is number 1 thinking they'll be killed as they'll likely get a good role, and everyone beneath them thinking "Those above me will already have it".

Of course, Amrun is scum anyway, and Quadz is likely scum too, so it's all good.

[Hoopla]

GI, Quadz, Parana - there is at least one scum in there. Book it.

I want more out of Zito n Hoop. They're makin me a little paranoid but not slam dunks.

Sorry. My online schedule isn't what it once was. This is about the time of day/night where I'll be online for a couple of hours in and around this game.

[Amrun]

So the meat of my post is currently stuck in my frozen browser. Yay.

[Hoopla]

Oh wow, we have a roleclaim. Exciting stuff!

My initial impression is that I believe it. Here is my reasoning;

If Amrun is scum, there are two options. She captured the Gunsmith role herself, or a scumbuddy above her captured the role and she is fakeclaiming that scum's role. The role-swap is a ridiculously risky move, given a Role-Cop exists, as well as if the real Gunsmith dies she's toast. Without a counterclaim, she is extremely likely a Gunsmith.

If Amrun is the top scum draft pick, it seems like an unrealistic role to burn their top pick on. Scum gain little from it other than blocking town from getting it, and it would be highly reasonable to believe the role is taken by then. Why risk it? The scum have much better options. And if Amrun has a scumbuddy above her, why didn't they take Gunsmith with a higher pick if they wanted to block town?

A much more likely explanation is that she is town. I'm pretty confident with this read. Gunsmith there makes little sense for scum.

[Amrun]

Faraday

I liked his early play. It seemed logical.

Later on in the day, he simply kept repeating my name, misspelled, over and over again. This is not content and it is not scumhunting. He's relying almost exclusively on meta, including team-meta, to make his decisions and this strikes me as off.

He doesn't explain anything; he clears people as town and he doesn't say why; he calls people scum and doesn't say why.

SSBF comment on the issues at hand. Thanks. You can catch up later. I want your thoughts on Amrun's claim.

Like in this post, he demonstrates that he's not reading carefully. For someone who says he is in "go, scumhunting" mode, he hasn't done much of it, and none of it original. He clearly doesn't even read the thread properly, which I don't think town professing such interest would actually do.

Again, there's not a lot I can point to and say, "This is a scumtell." It's feeling and emotion in the posts that don't strike me as the excited person he claims to be, at least not in the way he claims.

In addition, my teammates also have an off feeling about it. None of us are really sure, but that's how I'm feeling about it and I want it out there.

GreyICE

Perhaps Grey should have been above Faraday, perhaps even above Kise. Don't take the order too seriously.

Basically every post of GreyICE's is designed to take himself out of the pool of suspicion. He starts in his opening post:

Six was the most commonly selected number last draft.

Ergo, scum decided to double pick six on the logic that in no PYP game ever have scum doubled up on numbers. They got outwitted by two townies picking six as well. Therefore 2/4 6 picks are scum.

Vote: LadyLambdadelta

Start at the top, work your way down.

He backtracks on this in his next post.

My post on the numbers was a ridiculous idea I kicked about. The scum habit of choosing low/middle/high in reasonably even spacing was very apparent from games 2-4, as was their 'we never double up' meta. If they decided to double up, the number 6 wasn't a bad one.
...
I think doubling is possible this game. Though it's probably safer to assume that scum aren't in the 6s, and let the goon cop/gunsmith figure things out.

He distances himself from his own idea, which has been attacked, and backpedals completely, saying doubling is merely possible, but it's safer to assume it hasn't happened. This is not a good post, but I didn't read it carefully enough the first time around.

The graph also annoys me because I don't find the information in it to actually be very useful at all. It took a lot of effort and is very shiny, but it doesn't tell us anything we didn't know or would ever need to reference again.

The GreyTown I know puts all of his effort into scumhunting and half the time can't be arsed to explain his reads despite pushing them heavily and calling everyone else idiots for not seeing it. He does NOT waste his effort making graphs about nothing and doing no original scumhunting.

I: First post was terribad, when you look at his iso he has failed to comment on anything game related besides the main wagon. Definitely not the aggressive Grey I know, and the setup speculation works as a good guise for actually looking helpful. Doesn't work with amrun scum, but still works with SSBF scum.

The 'aggressive Grey you know' was from Camden, our completed game together. I was a mafia goon.

I need a good solid scum lead before I start the pressure, and Amrun may or may not be it. I'd love to push SSBF because based on team composition I think he has a better than fair chance to be scum, but he's lurking. Other than that, this game contains:

Debonair Danny DiPietro
Faraday
Hoopla
SpyreX

All are very good scum players. And the only one I have a solid town read on is SpyreX. I do have another read though... Hoopla is somewhat scummy. Her soft defense of Amrun is reasonably damning, since if Amrun is town, she falls under greater suspicion due to the doubled number theory. Therefore it would be in scum-Hoopla's best interests to have town-Amrun live as long as possible.

In addition her 'lynch a unique number' theory ignores the fact that the scum either have to kill unique numbers that are town (thus solving the problem) or deal with the fact that most of the singles, with only 4, will have power roles. While one of us might have doubled up, it's unlikely that two did.

So, of course.

Vote: Slaxx

No one's paying attention to you, and this bothers meeeeeeeeeeee[/quote]

This post is of note for several reasons. First, Grey again tries to focus attention on people in groups. Since he's an independent number, if he can get people to focus on the interactions of people in number groups, this benefits him.

Also, he is quick to try and discredit Hoopla, who is the only person advocating that we lynch unique numbers. Guess who's a unique number? Grey.

And then that vote on Slaxx. It's terrible! I've NEVER seen GreyICE make such a terrible vote, regardless of alignment, but certainly not as town. He says he wants to vote SSBF, but SSBF is lurking? No, he was not lurking. And it's straight bullshit what he tells Slaxx about aggressive Grey being a scumtell: he's even MORE aggressive as town!

Sorry, this town is rife with leaders. I'm not going to be one here, so I'm going to be poking into things my own way. If you want me to be leadering, you better get me a different game, because it's a hundred years too early for me to be telling this crowd what to be doing.

What is this humble pie from Grey? It's AtE and I do not like it.

This is not the Grey I'm used to seeing, and I don't think he's been truly intimidated out of his playing style. I think he's faking it, and it shows through when he starts to get angrier - which is, of note, when more people start advocating lynching high unique numbers.

Browser recovered this, thank goodness. One more post to finish up, I think. Want to get this off before I lose it again.

[Amrun]

Had a quote mess-up in that wall, but it's still followable.

I don't really have a lot to say about the others on the list that I haven't said. SSBF's initial contradiction is still scummy, though his explanation of it appeased me somewhat.

DDD is still giving me bad vibes.

Prana's most recent posts are bad. He seems a bit desperate to have the lynch go through on me, but he's also acting as if he has made some spectacular case on quadz, which he has not even come close.

Zito not feeling great about either, but he's not scum with Faraday. If Faraday turns out to be town, Zito will need to be looked at again.


My cases are surprisingly paltry for what I normally have so far in a game, and that shows me that I am in a game with good players, which would please me if I wasn't unlikely to be out of the game very soon. I still have quite a bit of the learning curve to climb, obviously, but it's been a pleasure nevertheless.

Upon reviewing my own cases, I've decided that the Grey case is more substantial than the Kise case. My FEELING on Kise is stronger, but the evidence is better for Grey, which is a more productive vote anyway.

UNVOTE: SSBF

VOTE: GreyICE

[GreyICE]

Does scum in #6 choose a role that does almost nothing for them? And one they're unlikely to get in the first place? I doubt it.

I don't see any counterclaims, and I don't see any reason why scum would have Amrun pick Gunsmith when they could have her pick the far more useful and far more likely to drop that far Role Cop.

Unvote

@Amrun - check out Mafia with the Hydras for another game where I played very similarly.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Amrun dies.

Today.

No excuses.

She's probably the scum's only POwer Role.

SSBF dies tomorrow.