Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)


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Post Post #200 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:14 am

Post by Slaxx »

GreyICE wrote:
Slaxx wrote:Oh, no one mentioning me? Its because I am ignoring the setup discussion because idgaf about it, partly because im bitter about being last and partly because I've always had a thing against it.

Grey's vote is still crap btw.

Is it crap because I'm wrong?

Or because I'm right for the 'wrong reasons?' :lol:


Neither, people being ignored when they are lurking is something to be wary of but I am actively posting. I can't help it if everyone else is obsessed with figuring out the numbers thing.

Your vote is crap because you failed to vote any of the major players in the game, which makes me think you're not wanting to take any strong stances.

If you would care to look at his ISO, he has literally half a post worth of game related content (#6). Then he follows it up what little reads he has with an out of nowhere vote on me. Now he's bouncing off playful rhetoric that means nothing.

unvote, vote GI


Hai GI, time to actually play mafia.
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Post Post #201 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:16 am

Post by Slaxx »

Oh, my bad, he was on the amrun BW for a bit too.
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Post Post #202 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:20 am

Post by GreyICE »

SpyreX wrote:
Thoughts on prana? I'm not crazy right, his first post smelled funny? I know you've been picking him apart but is it a case of he's smoking crack or he's scummy for it?


Scummy. 3 of the 4 top 4 have done some version of these aren't the droids your looking for.

Like I said 3 bullets would leave kise standing on a pile of bodies.

You're working on pissing me off. What do you want me to say? What is your case?

I'm better at picking numbers better than you?

Guilty as charged. It took two people, not three, and the other? She's on my team ;) DAMN good advice.

Also, when the scum are almost assuredly going to be shooting for town power roles, why are you so keen to lynch town who are very likely to be power roles?

PEdit: Hai Slaxx. At the moment, I don't think the "major players" in the game are scum (LLD, SpyreX, Prana) or am waiting for more input (DDD, Hoopla). You just moved your vote from SSBF to me for me not being a 'major player in the game.'

Sorry, this town is rife with leaders. I'm not going to be one here, so I'm going to be poking into things my own way. If you want me to be leadering, you better get me a different game, because it's a hundred years too early for me to be telling this crowd what to be doing.
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Post Post #203 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:24 am

Post by Slaxx »

I moved my vote from SSBF to you because your ISO reeks of active lurking. You say you have scumtells in it, none of which include me, then just vote me because everyone has chosen to ignore me. Its just bad logic.
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Post Post #204 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:36 am

Post by GreyICE »

Slaxx wrote:I moved my vote from SSBF to you because your ISO reeks of active lurking. You say you have scumtells in it, none of which include me, then just vote me because everyone has chosen to ignore me. Its just bad logic.

Not really. I didn't have a read on you. I wanted one. I used my vote to get one. Votes are tools.

Vote: Amrun


So Ammy, lemme see:
Amrun wrote:Several misreps on the "case" on me from LLD. Will respond properly when on computer.


Four posts since then.

What were the misreps in LLD's case, exactly? Or was that a convenient way of dismissing the case without responding to it.
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Post Post #205 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:40 am

Post by SpyreX »

Yes this is all number envy I am undone.

It has nothing to do with the numbers. It has everything to do with a backwards analysis - which means you understand whats going on and chose more than once to be obtuse.

There's not a true science in the numbers. However, there's a lot to be said when you're in the top 4 and go "Scum obviously bottomed out. Ohh just kidding!"

Its not an accident I'm all over you 4 chuckleheads and its not a function of OHH YOU HAVE A ROLE because roles do fall down the chain all nice and juicy. It is a simple truth: you 4 have a much, much higher chance of having a scum within your number than anyone else. Period.

This is further exacerbated by quadz's, Prana (who you've now called a major player with his first post being two pages ago NOICE), and your responses to this fact.

Now, its not a shiny world where all three of you are scum. But 1? Hell yes. 2? Sure looking like it. Plenty to reward the whole group of you with bullets.
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Post Post #206 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:47 am

Post by GreyICE »

SpyreX wrote:Yes this is all number envy I am undone.

It has nothing to do with the numbers. It has everything to do with a backwards analysis - which means you understand whats going on and chose more than once to be obtuse.

There's not a true science in the numbers. However, there's a lot to be said when you're in the top 4 and go "Scum obviously bottomed out. Ohh just kidding!"

Its not an accident I'm all over you 4 chuckleheads and its not a function of OHH YOU HAVE A ROLE because roles do fall down the chain all nice and juicy. It is a simple truth: you 4 have a much, much higher chance of having a scum within your number than anyone else. Period.

This is further exacerbated by quadz's, Prana (who you've now called a major player with his first post being two pages ago NOICE), and your responses to this fact.

Now, its not a shiny world where all three of you are scum. But 1? Hell yes. 2? Sure looking like it. Plenty to reward the whole group of you with bullets.


Interesting. So you think that all four of us should be killed off. Do you have any actual reasons for suggesting the people you suggest are scum? What's your reads on the four of us? Because I assure you, I'm town, and I have a fairly good feeling Prana is too. His ISO has more useful content in it than yours and Faraday's combined.
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Post Post #207 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:50 am

Post by Hoopla »

GreyICE wrote:All are very good scum players. And the only one I have a solid town read on is SpyreX. I do have another read though... Hoopla is somewhat scummy. Her soft defense of Amrun is reasonably damning, since if Amrun is town, she falls under greater suspicion due to the doubled number theory. Therefore it would be in scum-Hoopla's best interests to have town-Amrun live as long as possible.

In addition her 'lynch a unique number' theory ignores the fact that the scum either have to kill unique numbers that are town (thus solving the problem) or deal with the fact that most of the singles, with only 4, will have power roles. While one of us might have doubled up, it's unlikely that two did.


You think I'd be scummy for defending a townie? If you are to believe Amrun flipping town points to me being scum due to double-up number theory, then you are also to believe that scum not doubling up inherently points to the unique numbers. If scum have one or two unique numbers, they're not going to kill from there - they'll be more inclined to shave the 1's and 6's, not to mention the added threat of high order scums being roled. I'm awfully wary that Kise, Prana and GI (our friends sitting at the top of the tree) are all promoting a mid/low end lynch.

Your Slaxx vote is weak and at best a longshot. Best case scenario is that there is one scum in the 6's, giving you a 25% chance of success - that doesn't even filter in the chance of zero scum being there.

It's in the town interests to eliminate top order picks sooner than later, as an endgame with three 6's and two 1's, is far more optimal for PoE than five different numbers. If you are to believe scum are in the 1, 6 and 9 brackets, then it's highly likely this team has at best one role aiding their campaign. We will win with roles if this is true. If scum has higher than average positions (which if we've learnt anything from previous PYP's, is probable), then mislynching from the wrong part of the draft is more costly as town has a lower percentage of roles available to win. This is about risk management, and going for mid/low end players on Day 1 is suboptimal.
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Post Post #208 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:52 am

Post by Faraday »

I'm okay with killing GreyICE after Amrum.
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Post Post #209 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:53 am

Post by GreyICE »

Hoopla wrote:
GreyICE wrote:All are very good scum players. And the only one I have a solid town read on is SpyreX. I do have another read though... Hoopla is somewhat scummy. Her soft defense of Amrun is reasonably damning, since if Amrun is town, she falls under greater suspicion due to the doubled number theory. Therefore it would be in scum-Hoopla's best interests to have town-Amrun live as long as possible.

In addition her 'lynch a unique number' theory ignores the fact that the scum either have to kill unique numbers that are town (thus solving the problem) or deal with the fact that most of the singles, with only 4, will have power roles. While one of us might have doubled up, it's unlikely that two did.


You think I'd be scummy for defending a townie? If you are to believe Amrun flipping town points to me being scum due to double-up number theory, then you are also to believe that scum not doubling up inherently points to the unique numbers. If scum have one or two unique numbers, they're not going to kill from there - they'll be more inclined to shave the 1's and 6's, not to mention the added threat of high order scums being roled. I'm awfully wary that Kise, Prana and GI (our friends sitting at the top of the tree) are all promoting a mid/low end lynch.

Your Slaxx vote is weak and at best a longshot. Best case scenario is that there is one scum in the 6's, giving you a 25% chance of success - that doesn't even filter in the chance of zero scum being there.

It's in the town interests to eliminate top order picks sooner than later, as an endgame with three 6's and two 1's, is far more optimal for PoE than five different numbers. If you are to believe scum are in the 1, 6 and 9 brackets, then it's highly likely this team has at best one role aiding their campaign. We will win with roles if this is true. If scum has higher than average positions (which if we've learnt anything from previous PYP's, is probable), then mislynching from the wrong part of the draft is more costly as town has a lower percentage of roles available to win. This is about risk management, and going for mid/low end players on Day 1 is suboptimal.


I admit to not understanding the logic entirely.

If the scum are in the mid-low end of the draft, then we can win with our power roles, which we are busy lynching in case the scum are all in the high end of the draft?

How about I just vote for people who are scummy? Amrun is scummy.
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Post Post #210 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:01 am

Post by GreyICE »

Okay this is fucking it.

This is the fucking last straw.

What the fuck is wrong with all of you? Jesus fucking christ Faraday, what the fuck?

You want a song? You want a dance? You want me to lose my fucking temper in the thread and caps lock rage and fucking tunnel someone uselessly because "that's what I do as town?" You want the fucking shit show?

Well fucking hello. I'm not fucking happy anymore.

Amrun is fucking scummy, and Hoopla's "Oh dear, all the high numbers seem to be voting for scummy people rather than voting by this abstract number theory that proves that if we lynch potential power roles if we're wrong we can win with the power roles that we... just... lynched" is one of the fucking stupidest things ever to be written down.

Yeah Hoopla. You're scummy for defending Amrun. You're scummy because if Amrun flips town then your 'lol one of the doubles is definitely town' argument doesn't protect you from potential wagons. You're scummy because you don't have any reason not to wagon Amrun today besides 'number theory!' You're scummy because your last post is the definition of IoA. If scum failed and lost out on the draft, their only hope would be that the town decides to lynch based on numbers analysis rather than on lynching scummy people. You failed because your vote is cobbled together shit reasoning.

OMGUS? Oh my god. In this game? You do suck.

Vote: Hoopla


Reasoning fucking YESTERDAY. And none of that 'you hopped your vote off a wagon on the second fucking day the thread was open to get a better read on a player, and lol that's fucking anti-town!'
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Post Post #211 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:05 am

Post by Faraday »

That is a very scummy post. Trying to fake anger is never very successful.
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Post Post #212 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:07 am

Post by GreyICE »

Faraday wrote:That is a very scummy post. Trying to fake anger is never very successful.

Blow me, Pinocchio.
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Post Post #213 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:08 am

Post by Faraday »

GreyICE wrote:
Faraday wrote:That is a very scummy post. Trying to fake anger is never very successful.

Blow me, Pinocchio.

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Post Post #214 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:08 am

Post by PranaDevil »

I'm getting rather peeved that everyone is saying I'm pushing for a mid/low end lynch.

I'm saying Amrun is scum, thus I want her lynched. Numbers are important, but less so over a scum read. They add to scum reads however.

Also, my second choice for lynch is Quadz... who is fourth... thus at the top of the pile.

How is that sodding "mid-low" or am I supposed to be saying "We are lynching me, Kise or GI today" despite the fact I don't get a scum feeling from the other two, and whether I was scum or not (here's a hint, I'm not.) I'm not about to say we should lynch me anyway, that would be stupid play.

Thus, based on that the options for me would be Quadz, Hoopla and Amrun. Oh looky, two of them I want lynched. Imagine that.

So, Hoopla, if I feel the top 3 players (myself, Kise and GI) are town... why should I want their lynch over those below them?

GreyICE, much as I think you're town, you're not helping your case. You forget that Hoopla is perhaps the most experienced at the numbers game out of everyone in this thing, while I've picked up a few things from the past few games. Number theory IS very important in the game. But it should also be used WITH scum hunting.

One thing I will say GI, is that if you believe Amrun is scum, as I do as well. Hoopla is therefore town. I highly, highly doubt Hoopla would pull a "let's both pick the same number" routine with someone, it would be almost gaurenteed to doom them to failure.
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Post Post #215 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:11 am

Post by SpyreX »

Faraday: The Tipping Point

There's one thing I'll disagree with hoopster about:

Your Slaxx vote is weak and at best a longshot. Best case scenario is that there is one scum in the 6's, giving you a 25% chance of success - that doesn't even filter in the chance of zero scum being there.


I'd be surprised if there wasn't 1 scum there. But yes.

Ohh preview edits what can't you do.
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Post Post #216 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:11 am

Post by GreyICE »

Fine. You have a damn point.

Unvote

Vote: Amrun


Faraday and Hoopla can still go take a long walk off a short pier.
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Post Post #217 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 1:40 pm

Post by zoraster »

Day 1 Vote Count

Amrun ( 4 ) Lady LambdaDelta, Faraday, PranaDevil, GreyICE,
(L - 3 )

GreyICE ( 4 ) Papa Zito, Hoopla, SpyreX, Slaxx,
(L - 3 )

Lady LambdaDelta ( 3 ) quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amrun,
(L - 4 )

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Faraday ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Hoopla ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Kise ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Papa Zito ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

PranaDevil ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

quadz08 ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Slaxx ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

SpyreX ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

No Lynch ( 0 )
(L - 7 )

Not Voting ( 2 ) Debonair Danny DiPietro, Kise,
Total Votes ( 13 )

Deadline: May 29th at 11:00 EDT
0 Days Banked
With 13 able to vote, 7 needed to lynch.


EDIT: Fixed an error.
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Post Post #218 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 2:07 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

Will post later tonight. Currently 110-ish, not sure how caught up I'll be by the end of the day.
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Post Post #219 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 2:09 pm

Post by Amrun »

Sorry, guys, been busy and restricted to phone posting until now.

Lady Lambdadelta wrote:So far, Amrun has done the following:

10 Good Reasons Why Amrun is Scum


1)Posted Setup Speculation in an attempt to look more town.


I posted set-up speculation as an attempt to HELP the town. Point #1 suffers from confirmation bias; the action of me posting lists that were compiled to help myself scumhunt to make them public is actually null. I would only want to "look more town" if I was scum, but if I was town, this wouldn't be the case. Therefore, it is circular reasoning and can't be used to call me scummy because it's only scummy if I AM scum, which I'm not.

2)Voted GI based on an apparent scum read, then backtracked when pressured, stating it was an RVS vote


Once again, this is simply a difference in the use of the term "RVS." I wikid it after this exchange and I was the one using the term farther from its standard use. My point is that it was simply a misunderstanding and I already explained what I actually meant. You are choosing to ignore it.

3)Stated that she had no reads in the game currently when pressured, but then votes GI based upon a scum read.


Once AGAIN, I didn't know if GI was simply acting oddly or acting scummy, but decided to put my vote there so it would do SOME good. This is not exactly a scumread.

4)States there is sufficient content in the game that RVS is not needed, but refuses to generate a read from said content. (If there was enough content, she should have a scum lead)


There was enough content for my vote to be doing something useful - in this case, pressuring GreyICE. What good would have been something like, "Vote LLD. Hey, nice to play with you again!" at that stage of the game? None. Though my reads were still wavering, the gamestate was not one that would have benefited from RVS. I do not know why this is so hard to understand.

5)States that wagon on her has "given her good reads, and better reads than the GI wagon". SpyreX asks her to elucidate, and she provides the suggestion that "everyone currently
posting could be town". This is obvious appeasement and attempt to dismantle her wagon.


No, this is an obvious attempt to misrep me. When SpyreX asked me to elucidate, I gave the specific reads that the wagons had given me, even sharing my townreads which I had previously been reluctant to do. I also said that I didn't think such read lists were useful until a point in the game when everyone was participating, since it was statistically possible that everyone participating was town, though I by no means suggested that everyone participating actually WAS town. I don't believe they were, but that doesn't change the fact that it was statistically possible.

6)Until SSBF posted his case, Amrun was VERY quiet about attacking me. The second SSBF posts his case, Amrun agrees with him and proceeds to vote him. Never does she state on what points she agrees with him or why she does. She simply sheeps his case and votes me.


That is not true at all. I expressed suspicion of you before SSBF did, and my decision to vote you had NOTHING to do with SSBF. SSBF doesn't look good to me precisely because he attacked you while agreeing with your points on me - does not make sense. That did not change my independent scumread on you, which I had taken to my Team Mafia QT and asked their opinions on since I wasn't sure. When they agreed that you looked scummy, it gave me enough confidence in the read for a vote.

7)The only reasoning provided for the vote on me is META and GUT. There are NO FACTS or INTENT reads in the case. It's based on "Lambda seems forced" and "My team says Lambda likes Scum PMs".


Once again, not true. I think the accusations you've fielded about contradiction have merit, and you even conceded a point on the matter to me. I think you're trying to call people scummy for things you are basically doing yourself, then finding some arbitrary difference about it after the fact to claim contradiction.

"Seems forced" isn't gut at all. Your. posts. seem. forced. That is something ABOUT YOUR POSTS that I find scummy.

And someone on my team did say that you preferred scum roles. I should have verified that, and I didn't, but that was not the basis of my vote on you at all. What was significant about their input is that they shared my read and 4 heads are better than 1.

)Amrun blatently LIES about a meta read on me, in an attempt to build a stronger case on the next biggest wagon besides his own, and sheep SSBF further. (The meta was proven false
when I posted the CYS link, a game in which I was able to choose my alignment and chose TOWN.)


I was simply repeating what had been told to me. I should have verified. I didn't. Lesson learned. Either way, not a lie. I believed it to be true.

9)Amrun states DIRECTLY that she was afraid that if she voted me earlier, it would be OMGUS. This is not a town thought. Town votes their scumspects regardless of "OMGUS" claims.


You still don't get this. I don't give a fuck who tells me my vote is OMGUS or bad or what have you. I DO care if my vote is actually on scum. You have done some things that strike me townish and some that strike me scummy. My read on you kept wavering, and you were annoying me, and I wanted to make sure that wasn't influencing my read on you. So I took it to my team. They are totally objective, not sharing my annoyance, and their agreement with my read was what I needed.

10)Amrun BACKTRACKS on both her meta claim and the OMGUS accusation. In the case of the Meta Claim, she blames FALSE INTEL GIVEN TO HER BY HER TEAM.


I did not backtrack on the OMGUS. You just refuse to try to understand what I am saying, instead interpreting it in your own special snowflake way.

I did go back on my word about the meta, because I was wrong. It's not actually a backtrack, and perhaps you should look up that word. I admitted that I made a mistake.


This is a post I've been meaning to make for awhile. I disagree with every single point, as noted above.

That being said, I (and my team) have re-evaluated, and I'm not as sure on my LLD read. I keep looking at the wagon and who's on it with me and it does not make me feel like a confident, happy camper.

UNVOTE: LadyLambdaDelta
VOTE: SSBF

I've re-read it several times, and I still can't get over that one contradictory post.

Grey, why should SSBF's lurking deter you from voting there? Why are you acting so differently this game than I've seen you before? Do the other players intimidate you?
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Post Post #220 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 3:07 pm

Post by Papa Zito »

Let me catch you kids up on real-world events real quick:

1. My father-in-law died on Sunday
2. My wife's car blew it's engine today

I'm expecting the house to catch on fire any second.


Regarding game stuff, uh. All this numbers business is going right over my head and I have no idea why people are splitting things up into arbitrary groups. I don't see why we don't just play the game and lynch the scumz like normal. All the speculation about what they could do or might do or whatever is just noise that lets them dig in deeper.

Browsing, I like LLD and Spy. GreyICE is being GreyICE again, so who knows. Amrun's backpedalling is a major twitch.

DDD, top 3?

UNVOTE: GreyICE
VOTE: PranaDevil


P.S. I prolly missed questions directed my way, restate plz.
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Post Post #221 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 3:08 pm

Post by Amrun »

Zito, please quote and point out my supposed backpedaling. I have pointed out how and why I have not done this already.
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Tigerpocalypse 2011


Fusion Mafia, ongoing now.
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Post Post #222 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 3:16 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

Still not ready to make a full post, since I'm eating out and will not be able to catch up until I get back later tonight (On my iPhone).

But let me take a minute to call foul on the claim that I'm lurking under pressure. This is an active game, but that doesn't mean I'm lurking for not posting more than once a day. As a matter of fact, since this afternoon when getting home from school, I've been working on a post for this game. As I'm a very analyistic player, my posts takes time to make and calling me a lurker for not posting all the time is not going to get me to post any faster. Me posting once a day is a playstyle choice. This is to ensure that I play to my win condition, which is to find scum and lynch them.

Making half-hearted posts every two or three days just to stay off the radar is scummy, contributing to the game and saying everything in your mind as of the post you're up to date to once a day is not.

More coming after I get home.
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Post Post #223 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 3:17 pm

Post by Papa Zito »

What does your second sentence mean.

Yes, you blame your poor teammates, I get that.
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Post Post #224 (ISO) » Mon May 16, 2011 3:20 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

Before I go back to real life, something quick to add.

@Papa Zito: Why the vote on PranaDevil? You've said nothing regarding him before and now he's the person you're voting.

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