Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

You should vote Amrum DDD.

If I'm sheeping anyone it's Hoopla; not you. Hoooooplaaaaaaaaa, where are you?

Hello. I'm around now and will be catching up to make a post. I have some thoughts about the draft I'd like to share and get opinions on.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@quadz, but because I'm bored mostly I think your post missed when you dismiss GI and SpyreX setup discussion as useless; it certainly has its uses and I can't blame players for wanting to get their ideas on the board early and make sure they get seen. Also, I disagreed with the posts of LLD that you found scummy; she has other scummy posts but those weren't them.

[Amrun]

First off, could you sit on the fence any harder SSBF?

LLD is scum because she attacks Amrun! But she makes good points~!

Amrun is scum for the points LLD made~

Seriously, bro?


3) Uh, SSBF? Do you know how to read? Maybe you should read the repeated posts where I not only denounce GI's Logic, but also call him scum.

FURTHERMORE, the GI post wasn't a read based on a single post like Faraday's was. It was a setup speculation read.

So the situations are entirely different ANYWAY, and your connection and "contradiction" isn't actually there.

I agree with the first part.

The second part is not true at all; the GI read WAS based on a single post. Because that one post contained some set-up speculation disproves your point more than proves out.

This is an old post that was in my browser so while I get caught up/post on more important things, I might as well post this.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Amrum, I enjoy how you cutout half of my post in that quote.

[Amrun]

The rest of it I didn't want to comment on.

I should have noted that I did so, though. My apologies.

[SpyreX]

... What, exactly, are you arguing with me about? I do not understand the first point.
Also, I said that the stuff in your post which was similar to what was in Amrun's post was useful. It's the rest of your post that's useless.

And you're wrong and probably scum.

Amrun's post, in entirety, is a subset of what I said. 100%.

Further, the part that Amrun didn't address is where I'm expecting scum to lie and what I'm expecting scum to pick to a degree. You know, the whole actually looking for scum versus looking for not scum (which is pretty easy when you're scum in a non multiball).

I'm very, very tempted to derail this your way what with you being a scum PR and Amrun probably a goon.

[Hoopla]

For those talking about the draft system, the data sets from previous games might not be as applicable as you think. There are still conclusions to be made, but it's necessary to filter through what is relevant and what isn't. The biggest change is that you have the same amount of possible draft numbers, with 9 less players. This means there was an increased chance that more players will attain unique numbers, making the scum double up undesirable, and when coupled with the doubled-up scum players making up a greater percentage of the scumteam (2/3 as opposed to 2/5), you're risking a lot more, by plunging the majority of your team to the bottom of the draft. With town possibly capturing up to 8 roles, there is just not enough chance that your unlikely draft position will save you from all of those role actions flying around - a few confirmed players and you're done.

Having said that, there might be a chance that an adventurous scumteam

could

double-up, without thinking about the consequences that deeply. My impression would be someone who actually thinks about the game, but maybe not enough to accurately weigh up the true risks of doing something. GreyICE and Faraday seem like the most likely candidates for scum bravely doubling-up.

If this was the case, then scum probably has very little power and should be catchable by roles alone in the end. If they didn't double-up (which seems like the safe assumption based on previous scum strategies), we're actually in a pretty good position, given we have a small amount of numbers (or neighbourhoods) available. As per previous PYP games, having a small amount of neighbourhoods is a town advantage, as we can use this to PoE scum later by ruling out combinations of possible scumteams. This is dependent on shutting down enough neighbourhoods to create opportunities to PoE, though. For example, being left with a Kise, GreyICE, quadz, Amrun endgame doesn't really rule anyone out. Whereas, if we have three 6's and another number, we can lock down certain combinations which will be difficult for scum to escape from.

If we're to believe scum didn't double-up, our optimal play is to eliminate unique numbers quicker than usual. In previous PYP games, this has been extremely effective, as the assumption that scum didn't double-up has paid off. On the outside chance we're wrong, it means town has a significant power edge over scum, which should be enough to catch them, even if we're lynching incorrectly on the first day or two. This won't surprise many, but I think lynching a unique number is the right play today, given we have so few neighbourhoods to begin with.

[SpyreX]

Hoopla.

<3

Thoughts on my spread from an analytical side?

[Hoopla]

A thought on the roles available;

The game features a high ratio of investigation roles, with no real protection power (JK aside). It would be immensely beneficial for scum to pick up JK or the Roleblocker. The Roleblocker has the ability to essentially shut down most of the town power in one night, and the JK gives scum a free kill, knowing nobody can stop it. I strongly suspect that scum went for one if not both of these roles with their picks.

Vigs have been hot scum items in previous PYP games, but given they're one-shot, and you must wait to cash them in, I'm inclined to believe scum won't think it's worth going for. If scum have a top 2 pick, they must know there is a real risk of being dead by the time they use it, but if they're lower in the order, the risk of the role being taken is probably too great to justify the benefit of its power.

The tracker isn't a good scum role, and is probably a townie who has it. The Gunsmith could be taken by scum to block town from confirming innocents - remember, any player with no-gun is automatically town. I think once we get one scumflip, and a couple of claimed town players, we should be able to make reasonable conclusions on the sort of roles scum decided to go for as a team, which will help assess the suspicion of a claim more accurately.

[SpyreX]

And needless to say I knew a double up was more town power but the natural extension of voting directly as a function of it didn't hit because I was thinking of it as risk/reward (i.e. chances are high we're hitting a PR (Vig-townside) regardless of alignment in the top 4).

But yea I could swing a quadz/gi.

Also, since we're talking about it on this side thoughts on a Goon Cop moving outside the 6's? I thought about it as trying to lockdown the smaller neighborhoods but the chances of a false there go up versus just running the list backwards.

[Hoopla]

There is zero point in the Goon Cop targeting anyone from the top or middle order, as scum could quite reasonably be roled there. The lower you go, the more chance you have of the result being relevant, as there is less chance that player has that role. Also, it could be an incredible boost for town if we luck out and catch a Goon that landed in the 6's, as we then create a group of 6's who are extremely likely to all be town. The chance of that happening is too juicy to go anywhere else.

If we were to make plans about role actions, the only I'd consider talking of, would be the Gunsmith. As the Goon Cop is targeting low-end players, it's optimal for the Gunsmith to target the middle of the draft; maybe 5th to 9th, so the Gunsmith/Goon Cop aren't doubling up on their results. We get more info if a greater spread of players are being targeted. The Gunsmith going for the top of the draft could also work, as confirming innocents there is potent, but the risk of your target dying earlier in the game is probably higher. Not to mention the increased chance of false guilties. What do you think about the Gunsmith/Goon Cop working in tandem like that, SpyreX?

[quadz08]

Hoopla, that made a ton of sense. *thumbsup* for logic.

DDD: I don't think setup spec in general is useless. Just theirs was based on flawed logic, and is therefore unhelpful. Also, you make a fair point on the reasoning bit.

[SpyreX]

This is assuming we ran both Gunsmith and Goon Cop townside - which is pretty much a slam dunk that's only happening in a few situations (and, of course, there's a downside to that).

But, hypothetically I'd run GC-6's and probably 6-9 GS all else equal.

[SpyreX]

So now that important business is started Hoop wanna help me out with this?

Vote: quadz

[Hoopla]

So now that important business is started Hoop wanna help me out with this?

Vote: quadz

I'm still reading the rest of thread. Give me a reason if you want to borrow my vote.

[SpyreX]

See the dissonance in his bad/good analysis.

I could also see a GI.

[SpyreX]

On an entirely different note that I debated looking at this from a players side - thoughts on smallvilling it? It'd force a lockdown and would pretty much oust any funny picks but it does hand the keys to the proverbial castle for the NK.

[Hoopla]

On an entirely different note that I debated looking at this from a players side - thoughts on smallvilling it? It'd force a lockdown and would pretty much oust any funny picks but it does hand the keys to the proverbial castle for the NK.

The lack of protection power at night, and the potential for scum to shut-down the game if they have the Roleblocker/Jailkeeper is too high. If we didn't lynch correctly Day 1, and maybe even Day 2, we'd be too far behind, I think. You run the real risk of playing the game with little to no power, basing lynches what scum would or wouldn't do. By not massclaiming, we can still do that to some degree, and especially in endgame, but we also have the chance of power helping us in a more meaningful way while it's hidden.

I strongly suggest any role who gets something meaningful, to claim instantly though, rather than trying to collect more information. We don't need one role to break the game open by catching two scum, or confirming three players. We have enough power, that a few people doing a little bit should be enough.

[GreyICE]

I like the idea of us as a town voting on the vig shots. That way if the shot goes astray, we know that the vig is scum. While vigging a scumbag isn't proof of town (ASOS) not vigging who we vote is proof of scum. Agree/disagree?

[SpyreX]

Early makes sense.

No we're not having a vig teaparty. Its gonna be pretty obvious what the nature of the beast is.

[Slaxx]

I like the idea of us as a town voting on the vig shots. That way if the shot goes astray, we know that the vig is scum. While vigging a scumbag isn't proof of town (ASOS) not vigging who we vote is proof of scum. Agree/disagree?

I'd be comfortable doing this if one or two mafia has been lynched before we decide. Otherwise I think too much anti-town influence goes into the vote.

[Hoopla]

My impression from my first read is that Amrun is mildly scummy, and Lady Lambdadelta looks town, but overall the wagon on Amrun isn't worth five votes and the amount of limelight it's receiving. I think it's likelier that scum is pushing the Amrun wagon, rather than Amrun being scum herself. Amrun being scum, whilst being pushed by other scum is even less likely again.

It's especially curious that Amrun's wagon is mostly 6's. I wouldn't be surprised if one those 6's or GreyICE or SpyreX is scum. SpyreX and Faraday in particular seem overly hasty, given they are well acquainted with PYP. Chasing a non-unique number could easily be seen as a distraction, especially given that SpyreX made some damning conclusions in his first theory post about scum probably not doubling-up. He shouldn't be chasing doubled up players if that is his belief. He makes up for it with this post though;

I'm saying you've went "2 scum in 6's!" "0 scum in 6's!" when I'm betting there's 1 scum in the 6's because the spread being what it is.

There's no wifom in the numbers themselves - its a matter of how it shakes out.

Although you're 'all late' with the play is starting to have some merit ZING.

GreyICE's number theories have been pretty chaotic and devoid of any real logic - admittedly, this isn't completely out of character for the way he debates, but I don't think he deserves an out if he wants to posts theory/logic in an authoritative way and is misinformed. I dislike his vote placed on Amrun and I dislike the conclusions he's making about the draft and how he's presenting them.

VOTE: GreyICE

Even though we're waiting on Kise and Prana, this is where my early support goes.

[Hoopla]

A question for SpyreX, SSBF and DDD:

Why did you decide to pick 1 as your draft number?

[Hoopla]

quadz, why did you pick 13 as your second number? Did you understand how the draft operated?

[SpyreX]

I'm holding to number theory but not over actual behavior and Amrun does grate.

Why 1,1? Went for broke - either it'd be #1 or stuffed right in the middle (I didn't expect 3, I figured worst case was a second).