Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[MrBuddyLee]

My thoughts on Amrun, who's probably the excellent scum who's messing with all of our reads in this game. Her reasons for voting are consistently overmanufactured and stretch belief. Way heavy on the cliche scumslips:

• Amrun voted Mozamis for assuming two scum.
  
• Claimed to suspect MBL for the "Arishem scumtell".
  
• Voted Meransiel for an alleged scumslip.
  
• Accused MBL of coaching Tuncali.
  
• Said I was scum for thanking Shanba for not making me scum.
  
• Suspected BlenBlen for replacing out after being attacked.
  
• "I keep picking up on associative tells between Tuncali and MBL, so if one flips mafia, that will really affect my reads."
  
• Called nopoint/iam scum for "mudslinging".
  
• Accuses MBL of being scum for mudslinging against mozamis.
  
• Said CES and MBL were scum for blatant buddying
  
• Said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough.
  
• Voted Meransiel for implying foreknowledge of Apok's alignment.

Note that none of that is about analyzing suspicions. It's just thin manufactured reason after thin manufactured reason. And instead of using the data to create a big picture of everyone, she seems to use the most recent "gotcha" as her entire case. Currently:

I have already said that much f my suspicion of Merensiel relies on her having seeming foreknowledge of people's alignments

In this post, Amrun talks a tiny bit more in depth about her scum and townreads, doesn't really sound like she put a lot of thought into it.
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2926445

It doesn't feel so much like she's evaluating people's worldviews and suspicions as she's playing gotcha.


I adore iamausername's summary of Amrun:

Amrun

- She does a whole lot of weasely double speak "that could be scummy, but maybe not in this instance" early on, then gleefully jumps on an attack on Meransial for doing the exact same thing. Selective appliance of scumtells continues, as she attacks Meransial for displaying overconfidence in another player's alignment, but doesn't seem to care when other players, who are less easy targets than him, do the same thing. On several occasions, she says something along the lines of 'I am not going to vote for MBL for now' or 'I am not suspicious of MBL yet', implying that regardless of what MBL does, she intends to vote for him in the future. Also when she does express suspicion of MBL, she seems to have a completely different reason for doing so in every post. She's also constantly apologizing unnecessarily for her activity levels, suggesting a high level of concern about how she is coming off.

Having said all that, this is all from the first half of the game. I think she's improved a lot more recently, and I'm starting to doubt my read on her a little. Her attacks on CES look genuine to me, as does her reappraisal of Meransial.

Doesn't make iam's opinion correct, but the general tone matches my sentiments.

vote: Amrun

[Amrun]

My thoughts on Amrun, who's probably the excellent scum who's messing with all of our reads in this game. Her reasons for voting are consistently overmanufactured and stretch belief. Way heavy on the cliche scumslips:

• Amrun voted Mozamis for assuming two scum.
  
• Claimed to suspect MBL for the "Arishem scumtell".
  
• Voted Meransiel for an alleged scumslip.
  
• Accused MBL of coaching Tuncali.
  
• Said I was scum for thanking Shanba for not making me scum.
  
• Suspected BlenBlen for replacing out after being attacked.
  
• "I keep picking up on associative tells between Tuncali and MBL, so if one flips mafia, that will really affect my reads."
  
• Called nopoint/iam scum for "mudslinging".
  
• Accuses MBL of being scum for mudslinging against mozamis.
  
• Said CES and MBL were scum for blatant buddying
  
• Said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough.
  
• Voted Meransiel for implying foreknowledge of Apok's alignment.

All of these are valid reasons to think people are scum, though you have phrased several of them in ways to make them look ridiculous, like "said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough," which is just silly.

As for not going as in depth in my reads as I should, well ... yes. I have and will freely admit to that which is why I have promised to do that very thing in the next couple of days. For whatever reason, things keep interfering with my attention span in this game.

I'm working on it, but a couple of other games are higher priority right at this second.

[Amrun]

My thoughts on Amrun, who's probably the excellent scum who's messing with all of our reads in this game. Her reasons for voting are consistently overmanufactured and stretch belief. Way heavy on the cliche scumslips:

• Amrun voted Mozamis for assuming two scum.
  
• Claimed to suspect MBL for the "Arishem scumtell".
  
• Voted Meransiel for an alleged scumslip.
  
• Accused MBL of coaching Tuncali.
  
• Said I was scum for thanking Shanba for not making me scum.
  
• Suspected BlenBlen for replacing out after being attacked.
  
• "I keep picking up on associative tells between Tuncali and MBL, so if one flips mafia, that will really affect my reads."
  
• Called nopoint/iam scum for "mudslinging".
  
• Accuses MBL of being scum for mudslinging against mozamis.
  
• Said CES and MBL were scum for blatant buddying
  
• Said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough.
  
• Voted Meransiel for implying foreknowledge of Apok's alignment.

All of these are valid reasons to think people are scum, though you have phrased several of them in ways to make them look ridiculous, like "said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough," which is just silly.

As for not going as in depth in my reads as I should, well ... yes. I have and will freely admit to that which is why I have promised to do that very thing in the next couple of days. For whatever reason, things keep interfering with my attention span this game.

I'm working on it, but a couple of other games are higher priority right at this second.

I think my PoE is narrowing down a bit from the work I have done so far on this game (though I am going to finish it all before posting).

[MrBuddyLee]

All of these are valid reasons to think people are scum, though you have phrased several of them in ways to make them look ridiculous, like "said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough," which is just silly.

As I said, you don't believe they ARE good reasons, because you only stick with the most recent one or two and jettison the old ones.

My current suspect list (in order):

1. Merensiel (implied foreknowledge of Apok's alignment)
2. Scotmany (for not voting kunk yesterday and lack of content recently)
3. Bella (lack of content)
4. MBL- Lingering gut, mostly. Earlier vote was due to misunderstanding.

I don't think my observation about your scot suspicions was "silly". scot approved of CES's poke at kunk, then went to Easter dinner. You cast your vote 9 hours later. kunkstar hammered himself a few hours later. So basically, you voted scot for not being around between 6pm and 9pm on Easter evening. Well thought out.

Meanwhile, you placed the L-1 on kunkstar even though CES, your #1 suspect from the previous day, was the one accusing kunkstar.

Bzzt. You're scum.

[Meransiel]

Yeah, I'm positive now. MBL and Amrun can't be both scum. Nor town.

[MrBuddyLee]

As for not going as in depth in my reads as I should, well ... yes. I have and will freely admit to that which is why I have promised to do that very thing in the next couple of days. For whatever reason, things keep interfering with my attention span this game.

I'm working on it, but a couple of other games are higher priority right at this second.

I think my PoE is narrowing down a bit from the work I have done so far on this game (though I am going to finish it all before posting).

Basically what you're saying here is that when you're scum and a couple townies have been eliminated as suspects due to their roles, it's really not fun to have to make up cases on the few remaining townies. Especially when they don't look super scummy.

So you're demotivated. That's understandable. Voting yourself (or your partner) would solve the problem and provide this game with the burst of energy it desperately needs.

[Amrun]

Hahahaha. No.

I've just been really busy. I just spent the last week intransition from a move.

Finally more settled. Did a re-read and catch up in another game. This one's up next.

[implosion]

Hm. I just checked, and the deadline is this Wednesday. Definitely want to see Amrun's catch up and response to 903.

Bella hasn't posted in over 8 days and Apok requested replacement, so hopefully we can get an extension.

[Amrun]

Okay, I hope to do some more extensive things, but I have re-read the whole game and here is my list of reads:

Town:

CES
Apokalypta
scotmany12
Bella
implosion
MrBuddyLee
Merensiel


Going to put up some thoughts on these in a bit, but just wanted to get my list out there.

[Amrun]

Town:

CES
Apokalypta
scotmany12

Bella
implosion
MrBuddyLee
Merensiel

I forgot to say that my list goes from town to scum, but it should be obvious.

The bolded three are unequivocably town.

CES is obvtown tracker. Apokalypta is now confirmed to be able to put two votes on the same person, and I don't think that would be a scum ability. scotmany12 is town and he knows why and I know why.

The remaining scum(s) must necessarily come from the remaining 4 on the list.

Bella... Is really only town by virtue of PoE since I don't think both of the neighbors are scum and I DO think Merensiel is scum. Without PoE, I don't really have any read at all from her because she never posts. I think one of the neighbors is scum, so if by some miracle I am wrong about Merensiel, Bella is probably scum, but this is subject to re-evaluation upon slot content.

implosion: His overall posts seem townish. I was a little concerned with his stalling lately, but he's posting now so it seems legit. Still, by virtue of PoE, if I am wrong about MBL, implosion is scum.

MBL and Merensiel thoughts will be in next post.

[Shanba]

Deadline would normally be the 18th, however, I'm likely to be in full study mode that day and unable to check the thread. For the sake of my sanity, the deadline is being extended three days to the 21st. Enjoy!

[Shanba]

Oman replaces Apokalyptika, who requested replacement

[Oman]

Hi dudes, I'm in

unvote any vote/proxies

if I was.

I'll read and vote

MBL

mafia.

[Oman]

I've just flicked through kunkstar7's posts (as our known mafia member) and I haven't read a word of anything else.

Nopoint and Meriansel are both good options for being scumpartners. There isn't much there though and I need to read the rest of it all.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It doesn't help that we've already lynched nopoint.

[Oman]

and I haven't read a word of anything else.

Amrun is twigging things at the moment too. Is he alive?

Yes, I just checked. Nopoint was a townie too, now I look doublesilly.

[Bella]

Amrun is alive, and MBL has posted a reasonable case against her.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hi, Oman. Thanks for replacing in.

[scotmany12]

Avoiding prod. Definitely still think Meransiel is still the play. Amrun has been scummy, but recent events have made me believer her to be more towny than scum. I will not elaborate on that without her permission.

[Bella]

I just don't think Meransiel is likely to have attacked me so strongly for being scum because I'm an unconfirmed neighbour if he was the scum half of a scum/town pairing, because to make it work he'd have to plant the idea in people's minds that one or other of us was scum and once I flipped town, he'd have to defend himself against his own arguments. I just don't see it.

[Amrun]

Ugh, guys, I fell asleep last night with my MBL case sitting open on my screen and the computer restarted and I lost it all.

Will re-compose but am annoyed.

Welcome, Oman.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why were you working on your MBL case before your Meransiel case?

[Amrun]

I was going in order, bottom to top.

I am buckling down to re-work on it now... Ugh. I hate re-doing things.

[Amrun]

I read my predecessor's post history and he looks like a total douchebag and obvious scum.

Hi, I'm replacing Magnetic. I replaced in because PJ asked me to and because Shanba is totally Shibby. Let's catch us some scum.

This is MBL's first post in the game. It struck me off as then and it still bothers me. It's obviously not a real Amished scumtell, but why do it at all? I don't really see a town motivation in it. Not a big thing, though, in the end.

...
I'll read the game more carefully tomorrow--I believe I have lots of free time to waste. Thank you, Shanba, for not making me scum. I look forward to nailing a few of these young Turks to the wall before summer dawns. Ribbit.

Trimmed out most of this post since this is what I wanted to comment on. It's all sorts of "I'm sooo town, townie mctownerson" and it seems so forced to me. The jokes aren't funny, and are racist and offensive (unrelated question: are you Greek, German, or Australian, or just parroting other cultures?), so why make them if not to plant seeds of towniness in people's minds for no real gameplay reason?

OGML's calling calling out of moz and Meriansel reads really weak to me.
@OGML you keep trying to get everyone to look at these two players, comment on them, and even have your vote on them, but you don't express any reason to do so (even if its just gut). What gives?

This is probably the best post in the game thus far. I spotted OGML's weaksauce on my third readthrough and was going to post about it when I came across kunk's good find.

Basically, OGML threw what's known as "slushy snowballs" in the vernacular. Nonspecific attacks, loosely packed, looks to town to do the dirty work to drum up evidence. Note that OGML doesn't give his own opinion on those two players, but demands specifics from others:

Unvote, Vote: moz

@scotmany, what are you thoughts on moz? What do you make of moz and meransiel's interactions?

@blenblen, you have completely ignored moz and meransiel despite the fact that there was serious attention being paid to them by pretty much every active player. Why? Tell me what you think of each of them: scummy, or towny?

doesn't this just seem really.. obvious? I mean. So obvious. Moz and meransiel. Everyone weigh in on them. Is there something funky going on here or what?

vote: OGML

Pretty self-explanatory: obvious buddying with confscum kunkstar to team up on suspicion of most-likely-town slot OGML/Apokalypta/Oman (if I've got my replacements correct). Scum team pushing a mislynch? I think if this was the case, it was a fairly safe time for an MBL/kunkstar scumpair to do so; both but kunkstar especially were looking town to most.

My gift to lazymod:

Truant

(Mafia Bullfrog, croaked day one)

OhGodMyLife

(Mafia Poison Dart Frog, touched himself day two)

mozamis

(Mafia Non-lickable Toad, torn apart by gang of pelicans day three)

nopointinactingup

ender241

Meransiel
Tuncali
BlenBlen
Amrun
scotmany12
petroleumjelly
kunkstar7
implosion
MrBuddyLee

Magnetic

Includes another joke, this time a list calling one conftown and two probtown slots scum while subtly embedding the idea that he is town by putting himself at the bottom. kunkstar is also near the bottom here. Just noting.

Surely you must see BuddyLee's obfuscation and waffle for what is it, scum trying to confuse everyone. Note how he keeps trying to get people to name their other suspects. Deflects from him.
Hence why, for the time being I am not going to say whe else I find suspicious, until we lynch Buddy. Unless he/someone else does a really good job of persuading me he is town.

Haha, yeah, when I play mafia as town I usually ask people to name their favorite colors and astrological signs because I don't want to obfuscate and waffle shit up with people's suspects.

mozamis pushed against MBL hard, and we can now trust his suspicions. MBL pushed against mozamis hard in return. We know what happened there. I just wanted to note this quote that is MBL saying he doesn't obfuscate as town after 200 obfuscating walls. Mostly a note for the future though. Like when I asked him to condense one of his walls for a specific purpose and his response was...

I want a one or two word read on him from you, MBL.

Bacon cheeseburger.

So helpful. So NOT obfuscating. Yeah. Did MBL just call himself scum? I think so.

I'm not hammering you any time soon, mozamis. But there's no way you can persuade me (or anyone else) that you're town when your one and only suspect is MBLtown.

Just another portion of a quote to show that once again, MBL does his best to put it in people's minds that he's town for no good reason. He goes on to say mozamis is scum because she suspects him, which is a pitiful case that I have no idea why I did not address at the time.

kunkstar, what do you think of Apok? I have about the same thoughts on nopoint as you do--almost too reckless to be scum. Played terribly if he's town. Left the site, apparently only abandoning this game, when mozamis came up town.

More buddying behavior with kunkstar. There has to be something wrong with your scumdar if you always agree with scum - unless you are scum, of course.

I think looking at interactions with kunk are probably the way to go today, unless you feel he was a master of subtlety.

After literally agreeing with everything kunkstar ever said before this, MBL analyzes kunk a little after the flip and then says this. He apparently didn't ping your scumdar once and you agreed with him on several things, but he's obvious scum now- by implying he WASN'T a master of subtlety? This reads to me as "let's hope no one remembers how I buddied him." And then MBL NEVER followed this up. MBL never used kunkstar analysis for anything useful and then Kunkstar and his interactions were never mentioned again.

Meransiel bothers me with a lot of his little details, but I got a town vibe first half of yesterday despite nagging little things.

As far as I can tell, MBL actually FoSed Merensiel during the first half of yesterday.

All of these are valid reasons to think people are scum, though you have phrased several of them in ways to make them look ridiculous, like "said scot was scum for not voting kunkstar fast enough," which is just silly.

As I said, you don't believe they ARE good reasons, because you only stick with the most recent one or two and jettison the old ones.

My current suspect list (in order):

1. Merensiel (implied foreknowledge of Apok's alignment)
2. Scotmany (for not voting kunk yesterday and lack of content recently)
3. Bella (lack of content)
4. MBL- Lingering gut, mostly. Earlier vote was due to misunderstanding.

I don't think my observation about your scot suspicions was "silly". scot approved of CES's poke at kunk, then went to Easter dinner. You cast your vote 9 hours later. kunkstar hammered himself a few hours later. So basically, you voted scot for not being around between 6pm and 9pm on Easter evening. Well thought out.

Meanwhile, you placed the L-1 on kunkstar even though CES, your #1 suspect from the previous day, was the one accusing kunkstar.

Bzzt. You're scum.

Finally getting around to responding to this.

Yeah, CES was my top suspect ... until he OBVIOUSLY HAD ROLE INFORMATION THAT KUNKSTAR WAS SCUM. I even clarified before the flip and he admitted this was so. It was a win-win for me; if CES was truly the PR he was implying he was, then we had caught scum in kunkstar; if not, then we would likely lynch CES tomorrow, since I don't see a motivation to lie as town.

I am certainly willing to re-visit my reads in light of new information. I'm not constipated like that.

It'd be one thing if CES just built a case on kunkstar. I most certainly would not have listened. But to say he had role information that condemned kunkstar? That's another thing altogether.


In conclusion:

-MBL tries to work it into the town's subconscious that he is town, and I see no town motivation for this.
-MBL willingly obfuscated what he was trying to say after admitting that doing such a thing was scummy and he didn't do it as town.
-MBL buddied with kunkstar and only reversed after the flip, saying we should analyze interactions with kunkstar but dropping that completely.


Still, sometimes MBL asked some good, clear questions, and that is what earns him the place below Merensiel for today.

I'm tired so I might have to do Merensiel tomorrow. Sorry.

[Amrun]

I actually woke from a dead sleep because I forgot to post something important about MBL.

I really dislike the way he's using my meta. It's one thing to say "so and so tends to do this more as scum than as town" but to say, "Amrun has a good scum record, so she should be scrutinized" iis doing the opposite of what he was trying to do with himself, painting himself as town. Instead, he's planting the idea that I'm scum for no valid reason. A case of sorts followed, but it felt like it was contrived after he realized he could use my good record as scum as a tool to mislynch me. Not too long ago, he had cleared me as town, iirc.

I wonder if I was dreaming about this game.