Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[bvoigt]

I think we should massclaim today. A lynch and 2 kills brings us to 2 US scum, 1 Soviet scum, and 1 townie.

Yesterday, I was thinking that since we had 10 capitalists and 14 communists, 2 of the 3 US mafia were lying about their nationalities. So with Beasts' flip, that gives me town reads on Enigma and ThAd. Correct me if I'm wrong about the claims.

{PeregrineV, Lowell, bvoigt, The Fonz, Sathoris}

Here are the Soviet claims. I'd say that Sathoris and Lowell are scum. I actually have town reads on both Fonz and Peregrine, but if I had to guess the last one, I'd say Fonz.

[The Fonz]

Thoughts:

ThAd is as town as they come.

There remains exactly one American among the claimed Sovs, and the Soviet pretty much must be hiding there too, given the balance of numbers.

The remaining American in my eyes MUST be Enigma or Sathoris. The claim logic strongly suggests Sathoris, but Beasts of the Sea's attempts to tie me to Enigma, plus his pushing of PV at a point when it was the main alternative to Enigma whilst still saying he thought Enigma was scum is a REALLY strong associative tell. I want to lynch in this pair today. By the same token, I'm pretty much sure PV is not American, but could well be Soviet.

I think I'd be OK with full massclaim, simply because outing the vig today is less of a worry, and because we know whoever it is is unlikely based on sheer math to live through another two nights to get another kill off after tonight's anyway. Math also tells me that my read on either BV or Lowell was wrong: I'm more confident of BV as town.

[bvoigt]

If we do massclaim, Sathoris should start.

[Sathoris]

Me claiming first doesn't really change anything. My name must be known by now if you know my nationality and the period this game is in. I'd rather see PV claim first, or enigma. They're both almost guaranteed scum.

But I suggest we let the majority decides who claims first.

The claim logic strongly suggests Sathoris

What claim logic?

[ThAdmiral]

Still waiting to hear from enigma and lowell, but I think a claim is a good idea. I would also be happy with a sathoris start - if your claiming doesn't change anything you might as well go first.

[ThAdmiral]

updated:

jmj3000 - 5 -

DavidParker,

LynchMePls

,

Ghostwriter

,

smargaret

,

LlamaFluff

ThAdmiral - 8 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

smargaret

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

Amrun

- 10 -

XScorpion

,

Beasts of the Sea

,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

RedCoyote

, ThAdmiral,

smargaret

, mothrax, DavidParker,

Scott Brosius

ThAdmiral - 9 -

Nachomamma8

, EGL,

LynchMePls

,

LlamaFluff

,

GhostWriter

,

Amrun

,

Feysal

, bvoigt,

smargaret

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

, bvoigt,

smargaret

, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker,

Furcolow

,

InflatablePie

,

gonnano

, EGL

Furcolow

- 8 -

Scott Brosius

, DavidParker,

XScorpion

,

InflatablePie

,

Stephoscope

, smargaret, bvoigt,

LynchMePls

Amrun

- 11 -

VP Baltar

, bvoigt,

Nachomamma8

,

smargaret

,

Furcolow

,

Debonair Danny DiPietro

,

LynchMePls

,

Beasts of the Sea

,

Stephoscope

, DavidParker, EGL

gonnano

- 9 -

bvoigt, Lowell, ThAdmiral,

LynchMePls

,

Scott Brosius

,

Stephoscope

,

Furcolow

,

smargaret

,

Beasts of the Sea

Feysal

- 8 -

ThAdmiral,

smargaret

,

Stephoscope

, bvoigt,

LynchMePls

,

Scott Brosius

, Lowell,

Furcolow

[ThAdmiral]

no's 1,2,4 and 5 are the only ones of interest really. There are probably others that might offer good information, I'll have another look.

[ThAdmiral]

These are probably the only other ones that caught my eye and they aren't super informative, but I might as well post them anyway.

DavidParker - 7 -

ThAdmiral,

LynchMePls

,

InflatablePie

, Lowell, bvoigt, EGL,

Beasts of the Sea

smargaret

- 7 -

ThAdmiral,

LynchMePls

,

Furcolow

, Sathoris,

Beasts of the Sea

, Lowell,

Stephoscope

[Sathoris]

Just like PV's vote tables. Data but no analysis. Your conclusion of these wagons is?

[Sotty7]

1st vote count of day 6

Not voting - 7 -

Sathoris, ThAdmiral, The Fonz, bvoigt, Enigma, Lowell, PeregrineV

• The deadline for the end of day six is Friday 27th May @ 9pm CST
  
• With
  7
  alive it takes
  4
  to lynch.

[ThAdmiral]

Of the original vote counts:
- DavidParker/peregrine look bad in 1
- Egl/Enigma look bad in 2
- Egl and bvoigt look bad in 4
- bvoigt, lowell, davidparker/peregrine and Egl/enigma look bad in 5 - specifically US scum bad

And of the more recent ones:
- Lowell, bvoigt, egl look bad in the first one
- particularly sathoris, and somewhat lowell look bad in the second one

[Sathoris]

That wagon didn't end up in a lynch though. The wagon in which smarg was actually lynched is:

smargaret - 6 -

ThAdmiral, The Fonz, bvoigt, Enigma, Lowell, PeregrineV

I'll claim first if we use popcorn claims. PV goes after me.

[Sathoris]

Ehm, replace PV with Enigma in my last sentence.

[Enigma]

Just like PV's vote tables. Data but no analysis. Your conclusion of these wagons is?

Worse than PV's vote tables. Trying to encourage everyone to view these votes under the assumption that Thad himself is town.

And Thad why exactly do these make everyone who isn't dead on the wagon look bad? You can pick out any random vote counts, are any of the alive players on that vote count scum?

If people want to massclaim .. well I don't think it'll be particularly helpful but I don't strongly object.

My suspicions from the following day remain unchanged.

[bvoigt]

I admit, the second votecount looks pretty bad for Enigma.

[Furcolow]

BAH

[The Fonz]

Right, enough BSing around. Sath, start the popcorn.

Also, we need to make sure that no-one comments on a claim until all claims are in. Anyone who thinks otherwise, take a look at Harry Potter and Seinfeld mafias. Other players' opinions on claims before they are all in just allows scum to adjust their plans to their advantage.

[Sathoris]

Enver Hoxha, Albanian Townie.

Engima next.

[The Fonz]

Enigma already fullclaimed. Lyndon B Johnson, US Townie.

[Sathoris]

Oh yeah, somehow I thought he only nameclaimed. PV in that case

[ThAdmiral]

Just like PV's vote tables. Data but no analysis. Your conclusion of these wagons is?

Worse than PV's vote tables. Trying to encourage everyone to view these votes under the assumption that Thad himself is town.

Well since no one seems to listen to me there more for me really, but I thought I'd put them out there in case anyone else was interested.

And Thad why exactly do these make everyone who isn't dead on the wagon look bad? You can pick out any random vote counts, are any of the alive players on that vote count scum?

I've already explained my theory about the wagons, and am not going to do it again.

[Lowell]

I like 2413, though the tone is scummy.

If you think votecounts matter, it's not clear why they

only

matter at the end of a day. Presumably by the end of the day scum have had a chance to dance around and make sure their votes are where they want them, so the "pivot points" when one wagon fades to another might actually be more instructive. Not that I'm volunteering for that.

massclaim is fine with me. I don't think it's going to yield anything we don't already have, but if it's at least participatory that's fine I suppose.

[Lowell]

Oh he did include some non-day-ending votes, nevermind. Looking through I still don't see much of a pattern though. Can you help me out?

[The Fonz]

The one that really stands out is the day one ThAd votecount. Because BV thinks both are pretty much confirmed, but that would mean that a wagon on a town player had eight town on it without a single scumbag from either team. While that's possible, it's very unlikely.

[Enigma]

You do know the D1 wagon on you, the EGL vote was parked on you for several weeks whilst other people had wagons up. EGL didn't contribute to the wagon at all, he was already voting you before the wagon started. And plus there was a decent case on you, it wasn't some riffraff rubbish wagon that happened because the deadline was approaching and town needed someone to lynch.

Out of interest, a few posts that caught my mind trying to get these VC's in context.

Beasts is town. He's right about the wagon-whining going on here. DP is scum; the subtle defense of PI is bizarre.

It's good to finally see a real case on Thad. That's what I've been looking for since people started voting him. I have to say, there's quite a bit there even when I leave out the pieces that rely on me being scum -- and even those I could see having merit from the perspective of someone who doesn't know my role PM.

So far, I could see myself potentially voting PI, Jmj, or Thad (in order of preference) if the deadline was getting close.

Since it isn't, though, I want to try again to get everyone to take a look at Lowell. Every part of his play is about flying under the radar. He's done some minimal analysis of GW, but other than that his posts have seemed to be mostly placeholders to maintain a pretense of involvement. If you read what he's written, though, it's obvious that he isn't engaged in this game at all.

As an example of the play that I'm describing, just look at his response to my vote. He answers in such a way that no new information is brought to light, no new points are raised, and none of my original points are really even answered, yet somehow the discussion has been closed. He even pushes some accusation of OMGUS voting my way. All of this is very effective scum play, geared towards isolating himself from the discussion while still appearing to be an active player. By ignoring the majority of the arguments that are happening, he limits both the information that is presented to the town and the chance that he will be accused of something.

I don't know if this is all in my head or what, but I really can't see why no one else is finding this guy even mildly suspicious.