How to win as Mafia: Calculated Inaction

[GreyICE]

Meh I owe an IC in some newbie game this, because his explanation was 10x mine (might be Zito) but basically, townies are going to die. This was specifically in the context of no lynch, btw. "Preserving" townies is an illusion. If you're town, you'll probably eventually die.

So getting killed by the mafia, especially as VT, isn't bad. Me? I've experimented with playing "off" to protect power roles. So far it just makes me less effective for the town than if I was a VT, and once I was killed N1 anyway. If I'm obvtown I die. If 9 other townies are just as obvtown, we'll never mislynch, so I win anyway.

[Lord Gurgi]

Sure. But I doubt if you'll ever experience that in practice. I've been obvtown as scum.

[GreyICE]

Sure. But I doubt if you'll ever experience that in practice. I've been obvtown as scum.

Truth. But there's no inherent value in not being the NK.

[Lord Gurgi]

Being alive means you can gain more information to make better decisions. Other people won't do that as reliable as you will.

[chesskid3]

I'm great at not getting NKed as town

[Mr. Flay]

Being alive means you can gain more information to make better decisions. Other people won't do that as reliable as you will.

Logical fallacy.

[Empking]

If scum have to pick between the obv-town but only semi-right player or the accurate player then that can only be good for the town as far as I can see.

[The Fonz]

Being alive means you can gain more information to make better decisions. Other people won't do that as reliable as you will.

Logical fallacy.

Depends on realistic assessment of your own scumhunting abilities. If you're Glork, it's true. If you're Shotty, it's not. Unfortunately, the crux of the whole 'VI Problem' is that, basically, those who play to survive as town the most are those whose survival as town is least valuable.

In both Simpsons and WoW Mafia, the towns were severely hamstrung by the fact that pretty much everyone who was competent and town died in the first three days.

[GreyICE]

Being alive means you can gain more information to make better decisions. Other people won't do that as reliable as you will.

Looking back at the history of decisions I've made, I can only wish that I had your confidence.

I won't say I haven't run gambits with my survival (I spent an entire day tunneling someone and declaring him the 'lynch tomorrow 100%' with the perfect intention of declaring him likely town if I survived the night - no one, as the last remaining scumteam member, decides NOT to shoot the guy who lead a day 1 scum lynch and is tunneling on them like all hells) but if a player is more valuable because their reads and play are better, than the only way to survive is... cripple their reads and their play. Which removes the entire reason they're better in the first place.

Plus, if you play at 70% to avoid the NK, eventually it becomes easy to justify mistakes. "Oh, that's part of the 'dodge the night kill.'" etc. You get worse.

If scum have to pick between the obv-town but only semi-right player or the accurate player then that can only be good for the town as far as I can see.

Also this.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm not playing at 70%, I'm playing through different channels. In games where I believe the town will do just fine without me I play to be town, in games where I believe I'm one of a handful of competent players it's stupid to not try to survive. With the scum able to kill with impunity, the cut off for enough good players to carry the town keeps going up. I've played games (more than one) where the player list has had a bunch of idiots, me, Yos, and maybe one or two other people who I would feel comfortable leaving the town to. Guess who dies night one.

The problem with Empking's argument is that on the average you will have two days to lynch all the mafia. There are usually three mafia.

[Zachrulez]

If you play to avoid the nightkill, you end up looking scummy and risk being the lynch at a critical moment.

[ReaperCharlie]

Meh I owe an IC in some newbie game this, because his explanation was 10x mine (might be Zito) but basically, townies are going to die. This was specifically in the context of no lynch, btw. "Preserving" townies is an illusion. If you're town, you'll probably eventually die.

So getting killed by the mafia, especially as VT, isn't bad. Me? I've experimented with playing "off" to protect power roles. So far it just makes me less effective for the town than if I was a VT, and once I was killed N1 anyway. If I'm obvtown I die. If 9 other townies are just as obvtown, we'll never mislynch, so I win anyway.

Another line of thinking that branches off from this is that people always ask "If you're the cop and you get a scum result, should you claim?" The answer is always yes. 1:1 cop for scum trade is awesome. It's exactly why the cop exists. And if the doc protects him the next night, so much the better. He'll likely bring more info. I don't know why people even ask this question any more, but they do.

[Empking]

Meh I owe an IC in some newbie game this, because his explanation was 10x mine (might be Zito) but basically, townies are going to die. This was specifically in the context of no lynch, btw. "Preserving" townies is an illusion. If you're town, you'll probably eventually die.

So getting killed by the mafia, especially as VT, isn't bad. Me? I've experimented with playing "off" to protect power roles. So far it just makes me less effective for the town than if I was a VT, and once I was killed N1 anyway. If I'm obvtown I die. If 9 other townies are just as obvtown, we'll never mislynch, so I win anyway.

Another line of thinking that branches off from this is that people always ask "If you're the cop and you get a scum result, should you claim?" The answer is always yes. 1:1 cop for scum trade is awesome.

But its objectively less awesome than a 1:2 cop for two scum trade.

[The Fonz]

Sure. But the risk of the 1:0 cop holding a guilty dies overnight scenario has to be factored in.

[Empking]

Sure. But the risk of the 1:0 cop holding a guilty dies overnight scenario has to be factored in.

Yes buty Reaper is factoring that in while failing to factor in the chance of the Cop not dying over night.

[The Fonz]

True, but you're basically assuming he'll hit scum the next night, which you can't do.

What I will say, actually, is we seem to have seen a decline in cops trying to get their guilty lynched without coming out. I don't see the harm in trying to push their lynch through 'normal' channels for the first half of the day. If it doesn't work, then you claim.

[ReaperCharlie]

You're both right. But I'd rather have a guaranteed 1:1 than to gamble on "double or nothing".

[SpyreX]

What I will say, actually, is we seem to have seen a decline in cops trying to get their guilty lynched without coming out. I don't see the harm in trying to push their lynch through 'normal' channels for the first half of the day. If it doesn't work, then you claim.

I tried that as a tracker and it DID work well and I didn't have to come out a few games ago.

Of course, scum killed me because they assumed I was a tracker but.

[inHimshallibe]

In my experience, going from active to periodic posting to lurking levels is the key to not getting sniffed out. But only seriously enter the game after the first suspicion has been flung about, or do it yourself. If you're going to be active, you have to avoid being the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.

[Yosarian2]

It depends on the situation. There was one game where I was a cop with a guilty on someone, attacked them without claiming all day, and was able to nail their partner based on how they were defending that person, and then got another investigation off that night and claimed the next day.

[ReaperCharlie]

What I will say, actually, is we seem to have seen a decline in cops trying to get their guilty lynched without coming out. I don't see the harm in trying to push their lynch through 'normal' channels for the first half of the day. If it doesn't work, then you claim.

I tried that as a tracker and it DID work well and I didn't have to come out a few games ago.

Of course, scum killed me because they assumed I was a tracker but.

In Metropolis: Revisited, KageLord got in 4 investigations, but never claimed.

Then he died.

[inHimshallibe]

Gotta crumb those views, yo.

[ReaperCharlie]

Well, he DID try to get his scum results lynched, but they never did.

They lasted until endgame. (and then lost to the Serial Killer, but still)

[The Fonz]

Results? You are telling me HE DIDN'T CLAIM WITH MULTIPLE GUILTIES?

[GreyICE]

Results? You are telling me HE DIDN'T CLAIM WITH MULTIPLE GUILTIES?

To be fair there were like more scum than town day 1, so it wasn't hard to hit scum by flipping coins.

Plus all the scum claimed in the thread to lynch each other.