Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[LlamaFluff]

/confirm

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Equinox

Very unrandom. There is no backing to an IP wagon as herp-derping is not a scumtell, just a competence one. Equinox is pushing it more then "random wagon" on something like this being a tell.

Other good votes are marble and Klazam.

[LlamaFluff]

LlamaFluff, read the above and then read Thor665's comment, and connect the dots. That was not a random wagon at all.

So not random? Partially random? Secret tell? Why your random wagon over another?

@DH - A better way to get out of the RVS is to vote someone who has done something scummy. Which has happened already. You can give it to Equniox for trying to bait someone into hammering if you want to transcend the aformentioned points of trying to run up IP as a random wagon. Super cool part of all of this? Equinox-IP is already out as a scumteam.

[LlamaFluff]

Why am i a good vote?

Because of this post

Equinox/Thor: The only possible “scumtells” I can see about IP at the time you guys voted him is that he was the second to last to confirm, and he didn’t post a regular confirm.

Sorry for being dense, but I think Mith is just as good a wagon as IP is.

......
BUT, I think sarcasm is a valid scumtell. So Equinox/Thor: congrats. You get your vote.

unvote, vote InflatablePie

You seem to downgrade what people are trying to make you wagon him for, then follow along with a vote of IP afterall for being sarcastic (why is this a tell?). Something about that really just puts me on edge and be happy with pressure.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not denying that Equinox could be scum, however, it's weird that you believe that it's an Equinox-IP team due to Equinox's behavior, yet you won't vote for or mention IP and instead debunk the wagon. Why?

Already out, as in its not happening.

Also, if the point of RVS is to leave it, why is it better to discount meta? RVS ends in other games due to meta all the time, why is this time any different?

Meta in this game is hard to pin down if you want to get into it. There is game prefrence and alignment prefrence. For instance there is absolutely zero way I would have played in drams game, I would have replaced out instantly if I needed to be put there, I dislike his games that much. I cant really remember many RVS that ended in meta though in my games, usually someone just harping on a smaller tell, which is far more benificial in the long run.

Anyways, you agree with me about Equinox. Wagon up?

@Equinox - So why try to bait people into hammering him? Last post you had before vote five was trying to get a large amount of people to join you, without mentioning your percived L-2 of him.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm wagoning someone I strongly believe to be scum. Am I not allowed to get people to stop pulling unreadable crap like, "Hey, mith is here; let's vote him for lulz!" and be accountable to a wagon? Besides, I was not baiting hammers; if you'll notice, I didn't bait votes after Klazam's. Sorry if I don't like posting threshold warnings.

But you are in a very active game trying to get multiple people to vote someone who you think to be at L-2 by specifically addressing three people?

You are fine trying to shut down a random wagon in the place of a "legitimate" one, but when you refuse to say why its a random wagon instead of just saying that someone is scum because of 'secret reasons', you arent going to get any backing, or at least shouldnt. The fact that you DID get backing makes me think the IP wagon is a great spot to look for scum. The arguement of "IP should be lynched due to alignment prefrence" is weak, and doesnt hold any water too past a RVS stage, and you need to actually bring that information to light, BEFORE you think someone is hammered, to have it qualify.

Why sarcasm is scummy: Sarcasm is a basic psychological mechanism for deflecting attention off oneself. Something pretty useful in mafia, and one i see in IRL mafia all the time.

I never have found this to be the case, usually I see it more of a frustration with a player response.

[LlamaFluff]

I noticed you didn't even pretend that "You totally agreed with me on Equinox, now vote her" statement didn't even exist. I expected a response.

Thought it was more of a rhetorical statement.

You saying "Im not denying he could be scum" sounds like "I dont think he is town" which means "He is scum". I like people agreeing with me, even if its just in my head.

[LlamaFluff]

LlamaFluff, are you scum?

Nope.

I'm having a very hard time believing you would completely miss something of this magnitude.

Dont get me wrong, I love RVS wagons. Best way to get the game moving, but you never gave reasoning for yours yet continued to operate under the illusion that there was some and we are all supposed to shut up and sheep you, which doesnt fly in a game where more information is the best thing that can be accomplished.

The first time it was mentioned past a "hey its a tell" was post 49, after my vote for you. You called a tell, Thor agreeded with the tell, marble did too after a little, yet you all never said what the tell was, so im damn sure going to push on you to get the tell out instead of going "secret random wagon lulz". What was the justification behind not saying it? Also im not going wiki hunting to find reasoning if you are going to say look there. If its not in my meta, it doesnt exist is the rule I play by.

Fine, me being unable to say anything doesn't help matters any, but you're still on this whole "Equinox was baiting votes" thing when I was getting people to explain why they were ignoring the wagon in favor of voting mith, a wagon so full of lulz that I felt was not going to launch this game anywhere out of RVS.

Probably the same reason I was confused is why they were on the mith wagon. There was no PUBLIC justification for the IP wagon, it was just an inside tell or something like that. When there is no public justification, you really cant expect people to be listening to "sheep my RVS wagon over yours". Hmmph... change places! Also IP is still town, that wagon can go away now please.

Unvote
Vote Klazam

Why is self voting scummy? Can you give me a nice concise case on IP?

[LlamaFluff]

Nice and concise?

Sarcasm is a way to deflect attention when youre not sure what the reason why you are being voted are. Scum doesn't like attention.
Self voting is scummy because IT OPENS UP A HUGE CAN OF WIFOM.

Thats it.

Both of those are null tells though really, super weak at best.

Sarcasm is something that usually comes out of frustration or dislike of a person instead of trying to deflect. I know that when someone starts to bug me, I either get terse or I get sarcastic depending if I can think of anything that is funny to say or not. Its not something that I see scum use as tactical deflection.

Self-voting is a complete null tell. I can dig up plenty of games with town selfvoting when they get pissed off or in the RVS if you give me time to.

@Equinox - I really dont get it, and I just isoed you a few times. You just dangle the "secretz" card for a while and then say it. No clue where it comes from.

[LlamaFluff]

@DGB - Self-meta is fairly useless in this game since there can be a plethera of reasons as to why someone took a role in a certain game. Alignment, game specific role, who partners are, type of game, style of play, etc. Also remember, im the disney one.

@DH - Then you should stop making your posts sound like statements instead of actual questions. There is nothing else to answer though, your first question sounded like a statement, so I ignored it.

[LlamaFluff]

@Klazam - If self-voting is scummy, why did you never mention marble self-voting in the RVS and continuing to keep his vote there for a while?

@DGB - I dont think I have done any specific self-meta in this game, although most people in this game/tournament/whatever know my prefrences inside and out.

Part of marbles last post bugs me a little, especially the area where he seems to attack Sotty for saying both himself and Klazam are scum reads when he also has a scum read on Klazam. Something there just makes me feel like he is trying to shut down the suspicion without responding to points.

[LlamaFluff]

Socio-DGB I think is town on town.

Wiki / meta corroborates Thor's story -> townpoints -> IT'S SHEEPIN' TIME.
VOTE: InflatablePie

What wiki/meta?

I haven't found the secretIPscumtell myself. I have some idea what sort of thing it could be though.
I was mainly getoutofrvs sheeping Thorprobtown after my attempt to wagon myself generated stunningly minimal interest.

marf?

Not to mention the "Equniox is obv town! (but im going to be wary of him)"

Pie and DH copying Soico's RVS was really bizarre. I don't like it much. Klazam's vote is probably the worst of the bunch though. He also completely ignores the “super secret scum tell wagon” on Pie.

You don't like Klazam & I think he's scum too. So why am I scum again? Your thought process feels incongruous.

This is what I was talking about too. You are trying to downplay the suspicion from Sotty on you because your suspicions are similar to hers. It seems like a very roundabout way of trying to clear yourself by not actually responding to points, but instead trying to flip pressure right back on Sotty because one of your reads is the same. Have you never had a game where you suspect a couple people, and one of them suspects another? It happens, and you are trying to cut down the strength of the case on it.

@mod

- Just bolding it, im going to have no access from about this time tomorrow until late Saturday (maybe early Sunday)

Unvote
Vote Llamarble

[LlamaFluff]

Hey, LlamaFluff. You were all over me earlier in the day for being overly coy or something, and now it's like I've fallen off the face of the planet. I mean, I guess I did for a couple of days, but that shouldn't matter in the larger picture. So, what's up?

What do you want?

I dont think you are super obvious town or anything along those lines. Infact I would be thrilled to have a cop check you tonight if we actually had one. Thing is though, im not going to get any support for your lynch, and the response to a few posts sounded like you thought your vote was correct. By no means does that mean that you are town, ive gotten myself out of jams by being "genuine", but I would rather poke around elsewhere for a little.

[LlamaFluff]

In other words, you don't think I'm town, but you're not going to put pressure on me because the other skirts look prettier.

Not quite.

I just dont think a read can be furthered by continuing a back and forth and this point. I made my decision based on a few posts, and you responded. Anything continuing from there would be driving the game in a direction that it doesnt need to be driven at this stage of the game, instead observation and continual development of a read is going to be the best plan of action, eventually revisiting it if new reasons surface for you being scum, or abandoning it if my reads change.

Forcing an issue will normally just damage the town. See any game with RAGE posters in it for examples of how forcing the issue can damage the town.

[LlamaFluff]

Well I will make this clear(er) since no one apparently understood terminology.

Equinox-IP is out as a scumteam means that its thrown out, like its not happening, like I would put one as my strongest town read if the other flipped scum. Even if Equinox is town, I still like IP for town more than not.

[LlamaFluff]

For one thing I am a pretty threshold labely person in general.
I wasn't sure how many votes Klazam had before I voted so I went and checked and the information is useful so I mentioned it.

I already reported what wiki/meta:

On Thor: His wiki comments after his mafia win (mini 957) verified the being town at heart thing & his wiki was last edited in october.

Marf what?

I was thinking your "wiki/meta backs it up" ment you 'found' the same thing as everyone else apparently did, then you asked what it was later.

Also as I've said, I got a strong townread on Equinox that was totally wrong once, so I'm going to be wary.
I'm a substantially better player than I was then, but fool me twice, etc.

So if someone fools you once you never are going to trust a read on them again? By throwing that out I feel like you are trying to justify an easy flip later in the game by pulling out a "remember what I said, yeah I think Equi is scum again" move to allow for an easy vote. Also I think its far rarer to have someone who you always read wrong then someone that its impossible to read.

I addressed the 2 points Shotty made in that post. If you think I dodged / unsatisfactorily addressed something, point it out.
Yes, sometimes suspects suspect suspects. There aren't many "ONLY SCUM EVER DO THIS RAWR" moves.
I read Sotty as scum doing that rather than town.

Well first there arent any (so few I consider no) "only scum do this" moves. Also I dont really get your response. It seems far more interested in convincing Sotty that you are town because your suspicions are the same as opposed to convincing that you are town for other reasons. Also on the same hand, doesnt it mean that Sotty is town if you are town because you both suspect some of the same people? Maybe im just confused about what you are trying to harp on here, but it feels like you are attacking Sotty for attacking you.

My little birdies don't like Fluff post 73 for 'I'm still right but I'm not pursuing this anymore.'
Which makes my little birdies on the same wavelength as Equinox and furthers her town-ness.

Read what I said on this already. Im not going to continue to force a back and forth on something that appears to be an inherant disagreement about something since it will only kick up noise. Equinox would still be in a "do lynch" category, but continuing to poke at the same point is going to detract from the rest of the game, again, read rage poster games to know what im talking about (still working on my big MD post about how rage posting is doing permanant damage to the site)

[LlamaFluff]

Im starting to get a little flustered with reads here mostly due to how unreadable I always find DGB and SP, although part of my team at least thinks DGB is scum.

What I do think though is that DH is actually more likely then not town, despite some of his early things. Not a strong read, but a read nonetheless. Still like my vote enough to leave it for over my V/LA though, especially as most of my secondary picks are going "oh I think marble is scummy, BUT I will vote X"

[LlamaFluff]

Going to get caught up here, might get it done tonight, tomorrow for sure at the latest.

[LlamaFluff]

I would rather wait to hammer until after DGB's V/LA; it's just seems more polite. In the meantime, we can talk about how scummy Marble is, though.

*twitch*

@mith - Please explain the DGB case.

I find myself in agreement with marble about a few things, which continues to throw me for a loop especially regarding DGB who I view as slightly more scummy than SP, but really not all the bad, yet most of my team sees her as more scummy.

unvote
Vote Sevei

[LlamaFluff]

Why haven't you hammered yet? Again, no more than a paragraph, please.

I dont really think she is scum. I have an amazingly hard time reading the people who are sparratic in thier thought processes at times, but I really am not seeing much in the form of scumtells from DGB, just more frustration (null I know) but the action from this frustration I really dont see being scum since they are not as concerned in staying alive as they are of trying to force the game in a direction that she wants it to go in, which far more likely then not comes from town.

Dont hammer her, vote Sevei instead, I would love to see some pressure over there since this is way more quiet then town-Sevei that I know.

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - Sevei is scum because

1) First post is massive excuses as why she hasnt posted coupled with a shamless wagon on marble due to what sotty said + trying to hard to look town

2) Shift her main points from not actually scumhunting but trying to tie marble and DGB together, opening justification to vote either if one flips scum, or be able to draw on "parings" with both unflipped to throw down a hammer. Look for her DGB case. Its not there. The ENTIRE case on DGB from Sevei is "marble is scum so DGB is also scum" and not "commenting" on things, which DGB has been doing. Infact she is pushing a Thor case right now which I really sorta like.

Thinking this is Sevei-Thor-mith as our trio.

Smart money says DGB was town.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote mith

Somewhat more lax on Sevei than yesterday given the willingness to shift from marble->DGB to DGB->marble, which essentially means that whoever is with Sevei would need to be in a near allstar position for that to be an acceptable move.

Continue to like pie as town, Equinox looks like a strong town pick as well.

Will explain this more later, in an unexpected V/LA right now, but should be back to normal tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

DrippingGoofball - The "lurker hunt" comment feels so familiar to my most recent DGB experience, where she was scum. (Not the specific comment, just the vibe.) Lots of comments about scumtells/towntells... which is a nulltell, probably.

Early mith comments on how DGB appears to be playing the exact same way as she does with scum in a vibe department, and then gets written off as completely null instead of anything else. It feels like this is a forced statement to be slightly suspicious of DGB as opposed to calling her a town or scum read in this situation.

Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

More doding of actually directly calling DGB scum, but far more interesting this time. First he takes some shots at the SP case on her, but then makes a circle by agreeing with a few of the points, again making DGB a slight scum read? I dunno, he never really commented on her past a couple lines like this so far, just mostly "this is interesting" and moves on. DGB appears to be out of the top three here is all I can tell.

Finally he snaps onto DGB seeming to cite the wagon being "dodgy" (how?) as reasoning to why he just brushed DGB off as town earlier, despite the few things I already pointed out here. Eventually though the move seems to be triggered by SP attacking mith as a possible partner to DGB, and the vote is made while blatantly leaving the option open to return to the DH wagon the next day, which is where you can find him right now.

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - You should listen to Ythill more. Him and kmd are the only two players who can actually read me with high accuracy. Most other people tend to think im the same thing I was last time I played with them due to a flat meta.

Anyways

I think the four lynch pool here is

mith/Sotty/marble (well three lynch, I cant see the game progressing past that. throw either thor or sevei in as last one) Even MORE likely is one of Sotty/marble. I like that idea here, I can see mith flipping town. I cant see sotty AND marble flipping town.

For a more DECONSTRUCTIVE proof for those of you who dont like people just throwing out town reads...

DH I had as probably scum due to him attacking me hard early on, for something that really made no sense at all and that lines up very will with the... fevor of what I see DH-town play like for the most part. To an extent, the attack of me in particular day one is a bit of a town tell, especially for players who are experienced with me it seems. I think DH fits the bill enough here to be called town in my book.

Chris is town due to DGB trying to discredit him early on by calling him a possible alt. Scum can take pot shots at their partners early on, but actively trying to make it so their say in the game is viewed as lesser OR that they get suspicions cast againt them for things out of their control? Again, stupid move if chris was scum, as scum you want your partners to be in a position to help you or the team when needed. This was actively damaging Chris' position, so he is town.

IP has been town since about page five. No more needed here.

Klazam is town due to DGB trying to egg me on when I was pushing him and not getting support (iso 6) without actually putting backing to the wagon at all. **aside** big point to Sotty-scum in this post where DGB brings up marble talking about tells from sotty that make her scum, and then brushing that off as soon as pressed on the issue by Klazam. Again encouraging Klazam votes over SP (iso 27). So yeah, due to DGB we have Klazam-town.

Equinox is the last straggler. I have him as more town then Sevei and Thor, but not much more then to justify him here instead of there. He is in the little category of his own between the "town" and "null" people. I like to think he is town due to how the day went regarding DGB, but at the same time, he does fit the bill from his end of actions in the early stages of the SP v DGB battle of what I would expect scum to look like. Interesting part of this game is that scum need to exit the game making their partners look as good as possible, and I think DGB did some building up of Equinox. I just am really torn on him, and very likely would have fired a cop his way.

Basically - Chris, IP, Klazam and DH are town, Equinox flirts with that category but wont actually fit in.

Wipe out the rest. I would be willing to get behind a mith, Sotty or marble wagon, in that order.

[LlamaFluff]

so, you had DH as probably scum for doing something that lines up with DH-town... um, am I misreading, or did that just not make any sense?

If I said scum I ment town, or not scum, either way you probably could have figured that out especially as I ended the entire post with a "DH is town" statement. I tend to leave out a fairly key word like that often enough. DH is a decent strength town read for me, and I wont be voting/supporting his lynch here.

And yeah, what Mith said. I'd also like to know why Llamafluff doesn't think we can (myself and marble) flip town. Seems like a chain lynch link there for no reason.

The way DGB played with you two is a very uneasy one. She showed some interestin in what marble had to say about you early on, but after that pulled WAY off you two in suspicions, but also tried to get both of you looking elsewhere instead of looking at eachother. I can see scum dropping stuff on people, but getting town vs town to stop early stages of pushing on eachother makes little sense. Because of that I think one of you are partners to DGB.

[LlamaFluff]

Nothing is said about daytalk at all, im still apt to say Chris is solid town from all of that. Do not see how giving scum daytalk here balances, since scum appears to have a slight setup advantage in this game.

@mith - I still think you are scum. It is not a cop guilty or anything to that extent, but you have a higher chance of flipping scum then either sotty or marble do individually (although sotty is close). I would be fine quicklynching either of those two though if they other flipped town over you.

Still say grouping here is mith/Sotty/Marble +-sevei/thor

[LlamaFluff]

@equinox - You do realize im also calling five people town right? And three people far more likely to be scum then anyone else? Not a whole lot of "wiggle room" there.

Chris is like 99% town at this point. DGB interactions basically demand it.

[LlamaFluff]

@equinox - I dont think it will come to having to choose between Thor and Sevei for last scum. I really dont think the game would last longer than what I was already talking about with those three. If it came down to Sevei or DH, no questions asked where my vote would go, but we arent in that situation right now.

[LlamaFluff]

k? k

no

DH is on the dont lynch
mith is on the do lynch
marble is on the do lynch (VCA with one scum dead is usually bad for clearing people, narrowing down is good)

Llama, what do you say about this? Do you really think Sevei and Llamarble are scum together?

No, but independantly they are in my short list.

I am completely fine lynching either of mith or Sotty here.

[LlamaFluff]

Real quickly:

^so if we can all agree on the two most likely town in this group (because the other players seem to be unanimous townreads) we can just chain-lynch from there.

mith, Sotty7, Llamarble, and DemonHybrid can be knocked out and roughly in that order. I don't particularly care to check and that's where I stand right now anyway.

Ok, I can feaseably see how someone could see mith as town, but I have NO clue how anyone reads sotty-town here. Explain that one to me.

[LlamaFluff]

DH is on the dont lynch
mith is on the do lynch
marble is on the do lynch (VCA with one scum dead is usually bad for clearing people, narrowing down is good)

We're not throwing mith on the "do lynch" list.

That said, we can lynch from Sevei/Fluff/DH/Sotty and still throw one more person in there and STILL win. There's two scum left, we only need to lynch one, meaning once we narrow it down to 5 today (or 4 tomorrow, 3 the next day etc), we auto-win.

No.

You have a

horrible

do lynch list. Sevei is on the borderline of being a fourth pick if that, DH is fairly solid town, the list is missing mith, missing marble... there is ONE name that should obviously be there. I would nearly rather pull names out of a hat then follow this list.

[LlamaFluff]

Also im not crazy, almost my entire team agrees with mith and Sotty being scum here.

[LlamaFluff]

Now I'm having doubts about Sevei-scum because she basically just called the town's almost-unanimous-list-of-town-reads... scum.

You are not "the entire town". Marble is no way in everyones "obviously town" list and is probably in the middle of the pack if you average everyone out. Apart from that her list is stretching, but I agree with it basically as much as your last list.

I'm not allowed to spell out the most obvious reason why mith is town.

Try it.

[LlamaFluff]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

Ok Sevei is town now.

This is actually one of the biggest reasons Sotty is scum too. She basically ignores everything that went on between SP and DGB until it came to the point where DGB was obviously in serious trouble and jumped the wagon almost entirely for pressure and rode it out until the end of the day. Following that, Sotty immediately attempts to drum up a "lynch everyone off the wagon" hunt, when herself really had nothing to do with the wagon.

That reads as scum bussing, and then trying to keep attention off of them by diverting the attention to a group that they are not a part of. The best way to not get lynched is to remove yourself from the table while at the same time pulling town off the table in an attempt to get them to agree with you.

Not to mention all of the shennanigans that went on between the marble-sotty interactions and DGB looking at them getting very interested, then trying to defuse them from going after eachother. Reads as scum trying to make sure that their partner is not going to get stuck in a "one or the other" situation when one more scum lynch ends the game.

unvote
Vote Sotty

[LlamaFluff]

This also means Thor takes the #4 scum spot. DGB launching full attack at him when she is obviously dead means nothing for him being town.

[LlamaFluff]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

Ok Sevei is town now.

This is actually one of the biggest reasons Sotty is scum too. She basically ignores everything that went on between SP and DGB until it came to the point where

Okay, hold up.

I don't get how you jumped to this. Elaborate? Because I think you left out some stuff.

Sevei is town because she is attempting to direct lynching at players who were on the DGB wagon instead of off the DGB wagon. If we are lynching on that pool, Sevei has no chance of making it, so its suicide and game losing if she is scum it would appear. Sotty is trying to play it the exact opposite. By lynching OFF the wagon, she is not going to be up for lynch discussion, so is pushing the lynches away from here.

Or simpler
Sevei make people look at pool with her in it
Sotty make people look at pool without her in it

So, you're actually leaning towards 2 scum being on the DGB wagon at the moment? Because that's what the case would be for that Sotty case to really make sense. There's no point in pulling herself off the table if she can't get her buddy out of the hotseat too, yeah?

Not necessarily but it wouldnt shock me at all. WIFOM aside, I would have basically discussed hard bussing by at least one player in the QT pregame as scum, since if someone goes down, you NEED to have everyone else in a good enough spot to ride out to the endgame. Now it doesnt quite mean that all scum was on the wagon, since off the wagon we still have marble, Chris, Klazam, me and DH alive and not on the wagon. Not a stretch of the mind in the least bit that one could be scum and Sotty is going for a Sevei + three of the five combo for a win. She puts them under attention, but even if we only lynch off the wagon, at least one of them live.

[LlamaFluff]

IPie.

Ythill being scum does NOT clear Mith. A team could be all town or all scum, or 2,2, or whatever. it's not all 1 out of 4.

I dont think IP is this dull since its about a 1/28 chance that a team has two scum roles on it, so about 50% chance it happened.

Anyway, Sotty wagon would be fun to see here.

[LlamaFluff]

@IP - Yeah I read that a little wrong, but I still stand by Sevei being more likely then not town. I just get that feeling from what she has been saying today, mostly as she is looking past her lynch to further days instead of fighting hard to change a wagon. Scum has no need to actually talk about stuff that will happen further down the road because that wouldnt occur if they got lynched, instead they would need to find a counterwagon.

Sevei instead is saying who we should lynch over the next few days after she gets lynched, trying to make it so scum gets lynched later if she instead goes today. That makes her somewhat likely to be town either way, since she is trying to pick out scum on her own wagon to have say in what happens in other days.

I still say Sotty is a good lynch here. I would be fine with some people (marble, sevei maybe Klazam) doing a shameless wagon here.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama's 503 is weak. I hate the bussing argument so much... So much so much. It's even more silly when I voted scum while he didn't. I'm not going to defend my choice to help pressure DGB and eventually lynch her. Still I am agreeing with Pie in that we're in a pretty sweet position right now. I'm willing to be lynched today as long as DH/Fluff go next. I'm reasonably confident lynching one of these two wins us the game.

This is sort of cutting out key parts of what I said...

You started off the day not paying any attention to what DGB said or did with regards to SP or not, just saying from time to time that you would read up on it. While the debate really never had a winning side, you never did. Instead you push hard on marble who was one of the better chances to be a counterwagon to DGB. Until a vote on DGB, the entire mention of her is "will read" with the exception of a super early disagreement over SP/Equinox alignments. There also is a half the game list which "contains two scum" that DGB appears in. Eventually, you snap to DGB for "pressure", and never actually call her scummy until she attacks Thor near the end of the day, at a point where there is little if any chance of another lynch occuring.

This is close to what I would expect from scum in a game like this, trying to make it look like they are an important part of the wagon on scum by throwing a vote down for pressure, trying to make others take a strong stance on her, and then adding on a little point.

What happens next though is EXACTLY what I would expect from scum, which is turning all attention off of them an onto others. Nearly everything that Sotty has said during today has been trying to make people lynch those that arent on the DGB wagon (opposite of where I think scum would be). I mean, for the entire scum team to be off the wagon, I just cant see that, especially since DGB was obviously a lynch for quite a long period of time. This game for sure you would not want to be caught off the D1 wagon of a scumbuddy without a great reason, since where do people normally look for scum?

I know its WIFOM, but I would have tried to slam any scum who was in trouble as scum, and encouraged others to do the same. There are few things better for scum that I see then having scum lynched day one and then all other scum look likely town from the resultant fallout.

In response to Sotty comment, I am basically fine being lynched if Sotty goes in the next five votes the following day. I would rather just end the game with me alive, but last thing I want is for her to make endgame here

@marble - I know my opinions arent popular, but im not about to let people take this game in a direction I dont like. Also ZERO way Klazam or Chris should be lynched this game. I would nearly lynch IP before those two.

[LlamaFluff]

IP is really starting to bug me here by continuing to just brush off my justifications for town and scum reads and trying to lead the town without listening to anyone who disagrees with him in the slightest.

@IP - Mith town read, Thor town read, Klazam scum read. Explain them all since you refuse to listen to why I disagree with them.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not completely sold that scum would bus. If anything, it'd be 1:1 on:off, but definitely not both, that's for sure.

Its 50-50 or so to me, although if both bussed, I would bet that one of the last three is scum. There was little chance for DGB to make it deep in this game, and I think attentive scum would have realized this and situated themselves for a DGB flip coming either day one or two.

See his top 4? Those are the people off the DGB wagon. Sevei and Sotty are the other two in the lynch pool. If you think both scum bussed DGB, it's possible that mith is teamed with Sotty or Sevei. However, he's willing to lynch any of the four lynchees that are all off-wagon, meaning it's less likely he's scum with them. Add this to the (imo) improbability of both scum bussing DGB, and mith is much less likely to be scum due to lack of team-mates.

So to make it clear....

Your mith town read is beacuse you dont think both scum bussed DGB. Nice to know thats a strong point in his favor... again look what mith is doing, very similar to Sotty. He is trying to put the maximum ammount of attention on a group that he himself is not a part of. The only one he calls town is the person everyone else has as town. As opposed to Sotty though, he actually is doing a much better job of hiding it, and I actually didnt realize it until you just pointed it out.

Want pairings that work? Mith and any of Sevei, Sotty and Thor work very well. I think the best thing mith has going is actually him saying Ythill is reading me as town, which scum has absolutely no need to contribute to the game. That is actually why I have Sotty over him.

(to elaborate - this reeks of scum too scared to jump on their buddy. "Everyone's telling me she's scum, but I don't see it. Why is she scum again?" - also mimics Fluff, which I admittedly didn't notice till mith pointed it out)

That case didnt make much sense to me, and I willingly admit I cant read the people who have very little in the terms of repeting logical trends (meaning I can figure out what they are doing). One person on my team was saying they thought she was scum, but I still didnt see it (and still dont see it).

Look at some of the DGB to Klazam posts though. In one of her early posts, she supports my vote on him without adding pressure of her own. Later on, she again encourages a wagon on him. This doesnt read like scumbuddy interactions but scum seeing if they can drum up a wagon on town.

ISO him and read his interactions with DGB. They just scream town. Plus DGB's vote on him at end-of-day, WIFOM or not, makes him look better in my book. Finally, he came out today wanting Sevei or DH lynches, two people I think are most likely scum via possible pairing analysis (PPA? can I coin an acronym? ), so he's not paired with either of them since scum cannot bus at this point (or if they do, they need to back off eventually), so he's town.

Draft mafia.

SC-scum is going down an jumps hard on one of his buddies near the end of the day, which buys the partner a mislynch before they go. The attack felt more forced then anything else to me. While I do see this as the read im closest to agreeing with you on, im not ready to call him town. I dont see anything though that makes them obviously not partners past your argued last minute vote.

Top five though: Sotty, marble, mith, thor, sevei (equinox can make an appearance here bumping sevei depending on how I feel at the time). I will NOT vote Klazam, Chris or DH for the rest of this game unless something drastic changes.

[LlamaFluff]

...Sooo, Fluff. Being that Amrun is doing the same thing as mith (and yourself), would you be willing to negotiate an Amrun lynch today?

No. Amrun is awesome and town.

@Sotty - Look at it from a sliding scale, scum bus early and will likely make it further in the game. The longer scum wait to bus (days wise), the better chances they have of losing as soon as one scum member goes down. I see zero reason why scum wouldnt be afraid to bus in this game. Lets say DGB had one partner bus very hard, and one partner not. The one who bussed hard has to just avoid lynching their partner for the next few days. Scum dont bus well? They are in trouble.

[LlamaFluff]

@IP - You do realize if I remove myself and chris (who everyone thinks is town) from the pool of "not on wagon" there are only three people not on the DGB wagon right? I think one is a good lynch, think one is still town from D1, and think the other is town given all the small attacks DGB lobbed at him. You are acting like some of these reads are out of nowhere, but I had been saying DH-town for a long period of time.

[LlamaFluff]

Still the one hangup I have about mith is why would he bring Ythill saying im town into that. He seriously is one of a very select group who do a good job at reading me, so it seems a little off to say that as mith-scum.

Still in basic agreement with Amrun over things though. I would be willing to swap to a marble wagon I guess, but there is ZERO way DGB didnt get bussed. I would bet so so much on that, especially as there was no counter wagon to DGB, and the only ones really trying to get one going were me and DGB.

[LlamaFluff]

So I guess a little side point, but encoragement for the Sevei wagon not to start up again...

The only two people who really work with Sevei at this point are DH and mith. I really dont see anyone else actually as a partner unless there is some REALLY reckless scum play going on. Third pick there would be Sotty, but if Sevei is scum, I dont see it not being with mith/DH.

Now, I think that Amrun is more likely then not town for actually not understanding the setup completely. Thats made obvious right here

DH: mith/DH does not feel like scum on scum. Gets minor scumpoints if Llamarble flips scum, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

I think if Amrun was following along scum-Klazam, she would have realized scum loses with one more scum flip. It *could* happen from either alignment, but I see mistakes about that sort of thing coming from VT players more than coming from scum players, who tend to read roles closer.

[LlamaFluff]

no matter what LlamaFluff says about the power of a bus increasing the earlier it happens, I would be insanely scared to play in sudden death mode for the next 4 days, and I'd expect even the best and ballsiest of scum to feel the same way. Thus, they'd at least try and see if they could get someone else lynched first.

You are thinking WAY to short term here for what scum would do, you need to plan for the late game as early as possible, its something I do near constantly and I feel is one of the reasons my scum record is one of the better ones on the site. You have a partner who is getting a whole lot of pressure, and a wagon that isnt going away. Apart from this, you have a few of the more vocal players showing suspicion of them, and most others have at least a hint of a scum read on that player.

They arent going to make it the necessary number of days for a clean sweep. MAYBE they would make lylo, but smart money says that flip is coming. Now, knowing that, I see no reason why scum would be trying to lob up other wagons in hope that things actually stick. Lets say that marble got lynched day one followed by DGB, who is going to be the people who get slammed starting D3? The ones who pushed marble over DGB. Lets say you bus day one, even with one off the wagon (im going to just pull Sotty-Chris as an example). Now we have a lurkerish player off the wagon, and someone on the wagon. The player on the wagon is now looking at a mislynch pool of others not on the wagon +- one or two on the wagon. Even if they get pulled into "possible scum" discussion themselves (if good bus they wouldnt), they are looking at a large pool to lynch from. If the bus was good, scum basically has a six-ish player pool to lynch from with only one scum in it, not an impossible task at all.

No reason for scum not to bus if they actually stop to think about it in this game. Getting one member in a strong position gives a high chance of winning, since too strong of a defense from scum early on can essentially mean they lose the game when the first member goes down, and that is a much bigger risk in my book. WIFOM aside, I would have bussed hard once it became obvious DGB was a day one/two lynch (may 18th-ish), its a risk im completely willing to take since if I came out in a good spot I can direct lynches away from a partner and not be brought up for it myself, a win-win.

[LlamaFluff]

One of my teammates has encouraged me to vote for Amrun. The same one that was telling me to lynch DGB yesterday.

Unvote, Vote: Amrun

Mith, I take it I can have some support here?

Postponing content as usual - only got a few hours of sleep; I've read everything but nothing's really sinking in. I don't like how DH avoids questions such as Equi's one to him about ChrisB; might switch to him if Amrun/Fluff wagons don't build. Although my Fluff read is heading towards neutral-town after 593.[/b]

*smack*

NO!

Ok, look. I will explain it more but this is a big no.

Who is scum with Amrun? Not many that is for sure, infact it basically ENDS with DH. Who is scum with DH? Well I can see more people being argued as a match there, so that means DH flipping town essentially means that Amrun is also town. People agree with this, so we ARENT lynching Amrun. Ever. If Amrun is scum, she loses when DH flips scum. If Amrun is town, DH flipping town clears her.

Lynch smart here. Amrun lynch ignores a lot of stuff.

[LlamaFluff]

So this huge townread you've had all game suddenly changes completely out of nowhere? I'm not buying it. Between this and your hypocrisy earlier, I'm much more comfortable with the following:

You didnt even come close to reading that correctly.

Its an arguement to lynch DH over Amrun, or more specifically, not to lynch Amrun. If Amrun-DH is the pairing, Amrun loses when DH flips scum. If DH is town, Amrun is essentially cleared when DH flips town. Therefore, if its between Amrun and DH, the correct lynch is quite clearly DH.

I dont really support a DH lynch too much since I think he is town and it only can start getting people to believe my town reads more (or end the game but I dont think so). No "slips" or "changes", just you probably skimming and still not listening to people.

Amrun still is obviously town for not understanding what setup we are playing I think. If it takes DH flipping town first, its not the end of the world as it would eliminate a late game possible mislynch and create a new probably town player for scum to deal with.

[LlamaFluff]

mith and marble are gone due to Amrun play, Thor is probably out.
Amrun-scum *should* be out given the two attempts from DGB to get a wagon on Klazam but I will keep going
Sotty I lean to not given a few quotes from each person
IP due to debate over mith-Ythill

That already is down to DH, Sevei, Equinox and Chris.

You are next gone given that it appears you are enough of a suspect to make it hard to argue Amrun wouldnt lynch you over course of the game.

Sevei and Chris I said are town for various reasons, although they *could* work as partners.

Mostly it leaves DH, and if Amrun-scum has the setup wrong, she has him in a position where scum normally shows on anothers "suspects" list.

Either way, DH-town basically throws Amrun further into a "dont lynch" category to me. Unless you think its Amrun-Chris/Sevei, im not sure who is even left to work there. Still given DGB trying to keep me on Klazam early, and then pushing people on him over SP, makes me think that slot is probably town and DGB was trying to get another player to orchistrate that mislynch for her.

[LlamaFluff]

No "slips" or "changes", just you probably skimming and still not listening to people.

To be fair, I can only trust my own reads, really.

Keep refusing to listen to anything someone you suspect says. I guarentee you that it will lose you games as town if it hasnt already lost you games in the past.

Regardless of myself possibly misreading your post, I still don't like this. Why? Because Amrun came out and defended you instead of letting you address the issue first. Why would town!Amrun have a motivation to do such a thing? I can only see you two being scum together right now.

Tunnel tunnel tunnel.

Look, there is plenty of motivation for Amrun-town to defend me just like as town I have motivation to defend Amrun. I want to keep someone I have a town read on AND someone who I think I can force others to have a town read on alive beacuse its taking someone who is in the lynch pool out of it. Big bonus points there. Amrun is defending me probably inpart due to how much I stand to help her in the game, but also due to what her reads are. Have you NEVER seen town full on defend town before? I mean, I DO that in almost every game I play, and see someone else do it in almost every game. Get your head out of your ass and look at OTHER OPTIONS, even just CONSIDER them, and then tell me what you think.

IP, if you are going to listen to me about one damn thing this game, shut up and listen to me about this. Amrun is a bad lynch. There are very few possible partners to her, and the interactions from DGB with her constant passive attacks on Klazam are not something that really are indicative of scum partners. Move on.

[LlamaFluff]

Aggressive jump on Klazam is good, though. I agree with #76

Early agreement with a Klazam case worded in such a way that encourages me to keep up an attack on him. When Klazam is not a top suspect of DGBs it make it unlikely that the player is scum, since there is no justification for continuing to keep me on a player whos scum flip wont make her look good or bad. If she was trying to argue for Klazam-scum then this would be null, but encoraging me to attack a partner who she has a neutral? Makes little sense to me.

Thats basically one of those things that just doesnt look like a bus. Busses are not really passive for the most part, since those tend to not net the town points that a bus is supposed to get.

Best I can offer is to why im town with those interaction is that I WOULD have bussed in that situation around the time that it was obvious who was winning that battle. I like to play more lone wolf as scum then most people do, and do massive damage to the town when I get the "probably town" lable. I have even bussed somewhat recently in a situation where I didnt know what the case on my partner really was just because the game was at a point where a bus would leave me in a scenario where I could ride out F5 to an easy endgame win as last scum. Its not my scum-MO to get caught looking bad from a partners flip, I put a whole lot of thought into my scum game such that I pick my pushes and cases not on who looks "scummy" but whos flips will leave me in the best position. As scum the DGB one (or even marble if he is town) would have really put me in a situation where I was up for lynch consideration by D3. Im not an idiot as scum, which is why I havent been lynched as scum without a cop guilty (or that mod-error game) in almost two years.

[LlamaFluff]

Bit of an oddball question probably, but it's relevant: LlamaFluff, how are you usually with catching breadcrumbs? Links to games would be helpful, too.

Pretty bad.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
vote mith

These will be good competing wagons.

[LlamaFluff]

THERE ARE FOUR COMPETING WAGONS

FOUR

LLAMAFLUFF HAD BETTER HAVE SOME GOOD REASONS WHY STIRRING UP A FOURTH ONE IS A GOOD IDEA

Because the Amrun one is due to fall apart and the similarities between the reasoning for the mith and Sotty wagons begs for both to be available to see what side people actually fall on when to near identical cases are pushed at the same time in hopes of finding even more possible parters for the two in question.

[LlamaFluff]

That said, what do you think of the DemonHybrid wagon and how it built up so far and the fact that both mith and Sotty7 are on it?

Makes me continue to dislike it a whole lot, still, better than Amrun wagon.

My teammate is also interested in the following hypothetical situation: If you were scum with DrippingGoofball, when and how would you have bussed her?

Probably would have put a little bit of pressure there around the time where I voted marble, at least not comitted to that wagon over her since momentum wasnt really predicatble at that point, and the amount of noise generated between SP-DGB ment that the most attention and most likely votes would move there in the near future. For what I would have said... maybe tried to restate what SP said in a way that made more sense and wasnt quite as disjointed mastin-esq "quote quote quote" style. Not sure really but something to steal part of the credit from him if she flipped.

Ive done about everything to defend DH as I really can at this point though, and despite my town read on him, and if town he may not be the worst possible lynch given the town credit I feel he gives to some of my town reads, and should leave who I think is scum in positions to be lynched tomorrow. Not optimal but hardly horrible.

[LlamaFluff]

Bulletproof case is bulletproof

unvote
Vote Sotty

Seriously, her/mith ends the game, nearly for sure. As the play continues I actually shy away from marble, but still like Sotty for scum.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah... back and forth some more

unvote
Vote mith

This game day needs to end soon due to deadline banking. Also im not insane, partners agree on my mith and amrun reads.

[LlamaFluff]

And Fluff I'm starting to think you are just screwing with me now. Any explanation for the switch?

No.

I just keep going back and forth between you and right now, I lean mith. This is all frustrating though since DH is the more inevitable lynch today and is getting stalled out for some reason.

[LlamaFluff]

Reasons DH is town

~He would have to be scum with Sevei (who leans town), Marble (neutralish) or Amrun (solid town). When none of them are doing anything to stop the wagon outside of maybe Sevei, DH is town.

This has been "reasons DH is town"

Any questions?

[LlamaFluff]

Actually... LlamaFluff: Let's say we're in some hypothetical totally implausible alternate reality where you and DH are scumbuddies, and one of you getting lynched ends the game. What would you be doing to "stop the wagon" other than repeatedly calling him town and voting for his attackers?

Sticking to my guns on one of you/sotty for one. Its obvious who supports what wagon and to what extreme, the best way to stave off the DH lynch would be to vote the right wagon and create the right arguements. Toggling back and forth constantly only creates no solid response to the wagon on DH and likely results in his lynch.

Also you really think he would attack me on crap misunderstandings like he did yesterday if we were scum together?

I dont see DH-scum without Sevei-scum here. Everyone else is either too gung-ho to lynch him or makes no sense as a partner. I would vote Sevei over DH.

[LlamaFluff]

The fellow pony says that he really dislikes the fact that LlamaFluff has been focusing on people on the DrippingGoofball wagon given that he himself was off it. I haven't had the chance to look into this deeper, but it's something I'm definitely doing when I go home. However, I'm going to go with this.

Unlike other people who are trying to justify on or off the wagon though, your teammate is apparently forgetting that I am ACTUALLY making arguements for why people are town, not to mention forgetting that I am more suspect of marble and Sevei than half the DGB wagon. Amrun I have covered extensively why they are town, DH as well and Chris. You know who that leaves off the wagon? Sevei. Thats it.

So of course im pushing on the wagon, three of my strongest five town reads are off the wagon. I cant see scum refusing to bus there when there was no counterwagon that existed for such an extended period of time.

unvote
Vote Sevei

I can do this, as Sevei-town essentially puts DH in the same spectrum as Amrun, Chris and Equinox at this point and Sevei-scum is good for obvious reasons. Thats a win-win

[LlamaFluff]

I bring up a chain lynch of LlamaFluff and Llamarble, and LlamaFluff doesn't pause to say, "Equinox, you've got it all wrong! She's WIFOMing you!" or maybe even, "It's Llamarble!" Instead, he tosses an L-1 vote on Sevei despite defending her for most of Day 2 and then posts some if-then reads... and suddenly I'm obvtown if Sevei flips town despite not being so before...? What?

First of all im not bringing that point up because of what you JUST said, it WIFOM. Thats what you call a distraction arguement. I could see DGB doing that if marble is scum or town, I can see her doing to MORE if marble is town for the exact reason that is unfolding. My prefered chain at this point is Sotty->Sevei->mith. Marble I lean to town actually given the lack of any other wagon that existed for the entire day. With DGB who is competent, and marble who is competent, is there REALLY no other wagon showing up? Ever?

Do I think Sevei is more likely town then a few players? Yes I do. At the same time though, its a very benificial lynch on a few levels. For one it gets rid of a couple paranoia pairings I have had that it can be something like Sevei-DH or Sevei-Amrun, which if are the pairing im going to just lead town to a loss. There are a few things that can point to a Sevei-DGB pairing as well. DGB really just vaugely called Sevei scum early in the game, and that was the enterity of the mention of DGB. Sevei was calling marble-DGB pairing for most of the first day, but tried to say that the marble flip was the right one to go with first until the last possible moment.

For what I keep having trouble with are some of my town reads, specifically Equinox and IP. Equinox I keep just getting this paranoia over, but as I look at it, there is no real good reason for me to continue to keep on you for the reasons that I am, because the only people you can be scum with im already going to power a lynch through of. Even those are stretches, for the most part. IP I actually continually have some stronger paranoia moves of, and one of my partners really doesnt like him at this point, but again really I dont think that I will run into a pairing where I am stuck defending two scum.

The conditional isnt a if Sevei is town you are town. That actually doesnt effect my read of you, what the Sevei town flip means is that DH is more town than before since thats basically the last legitimate chance for someone to be scum with him.

So there.

Im not going to pull a WIFOM frenzy mode on what DGB was saying since everyone has their own takes on a WIFOM arguement every time. I do reserve the right to change my reads if I feel that things have changed or I have reevaluated stances and will do so if events transpire. You dont like it? Tough.

[LlamaFluff]

If no one is going to lynch someone that I actually want lynched badly im sure as hell going to push through the lynch of someone that makes me more confident over my top few town reads if they flip town, and will eliminate the chance of me just running around leading town to oblivion otherwise defending two town reads as scum.

There are reasons to call Sevei town, there are reasons to call Sevei scum. I like the information from the flip either way. I like a few of the reasons for callng him scum, especially the DGB to Sevei interactions. It matches with some of my town reads, and isnt out of the question with any of the town reads. Dont really care if you dislike my vote, but I think it just locks down the game even more than it already does. Also your big arguement now is that I mixed up marble and Sevei for who was off the wagon?

Sevei-Mith looks like a very high likelyhood pairing at this point. If I get lynched, just wipe out Sotty, Sevei, mith and thats the game. I can see

two

possible pairings that dont include one of those two people.

[LlamaFluff]

Equi, Llamafluff also ignored my point that mith is pretty much confirmed town at this point as he wants to chain me, Sevei and mith.

You never made that point so its hard to ignore it. IP is the only one who has made a point like that (on bad WIFOM which also should mean im confirmed town to him at this point)

If I get lynched Sotty should be lynched within the first four posts tomorrow. No questions asked. Also Amrun should NEVER be lynched since most of the people who are pushing her (and DH) are using the arguements that I am scum with them. DH I can sorta live with although im fairly sure they are town. Amrun lynch is horrible and I almost feel like this is Cold War all over again where I defend town who is nearly at a lynch all the way down, get killed and then scum pushes their lynch through.

[LlamaFluff]

If I had four lynches....

Sotty/Sevei/mith/Thor

The last post from Thor REALLY bugged me since it seemed to come from a state of mind that I was definantly town.

@Equinox - Stop doing this gamblers fallacy stuff. What role you recieve in each game is an independant event, which means they have no bearing on eachother. Take for example my alt, I was scum in seven straight games with it, with most games being 25% scum. Each game I had a 25% chance to be scum, the chance of drawing scum that many times in a row is low, but each game still was 25% scum.

If I get lynched, Sotty next no questions asked. After that, look at the other three, and work out which ones need to go. I wouldnt be super against Sevei-Thor actually since those other three are the top contenders for mith partner, and cover a couple other possibilites that I am wary of.

Not sure what the case on me is either, I would like that to be actually brought up.

[LlamaFluff]

@Fluff: my tl;dr main point on you is accusing others of directing suspicion outside of their "group" (on or off DGB wagon) yet doing the same thing yourself (being off-wagon and directing attention to on-wagon players)

Look. I will explain this ONE more damn time because people keep bringing it up. I am backing up town reads of players who were not on the DGB wagon with CASES. I have laid out paragraphs about what Amrun is town. I have given reasoning as to why DH is town. If you disagree with them fine, but I actively am saying "not these people off the wagon as they are town for the following reasoning". Other people are saying "not the people on the wagon because they are on the wagon", big difference.

Show me who I am passing off as town without reasoning here, then reevaluate

@Equinox - Then make them give you reasoning.

[LlamaFluff]

The last post from Thor REALLY bugged me since it seemed to come from a state of mind that I was definantly town.

I apologize for having you as a town read since Day 1...?
I also apologize for agreeing to your stated desire of a Sotty lynch after your flip...?
I also apologize for being a handsome devil...?

Well then you dont lynch someone who you have as a town read... if you would rather lynch Sotty lets do that wagon. Im pretty sure there is sufficient support there (and the case transcends gut)

[LlamaFluff]

Spend most of the day running errands and you guys do a loco-explosion...

Im not sure what to make of this game right now, as something is just not adding up, at all. I mean... now we have had two people who obviously have no idea what is going on, one either running a "no pm" or probably is town for it gambit while the other still occasionally seems to miss the setup.

I continue to be torn on Sotty even though I really like her for scum, most of the resigned type posts seem to come from a similar mindset of ones that I have been putting out there so that makes me uncomfortable. DH I dunno, I mean that hammer holy crap that "hammer" gives me heeby geebies all over. I mean, its textbook correct play from scum (and town) to do that, but again. Look at the DH wagon members when it was serious over time: mith, Sotty, Equinox, Chris, IP and Thor. DH has been on Sevei this entire time. That leaves a grand total of Amrun with outlier of marble (yes me from outsider standpoint inb4mith). I just do... not... see it. I mean damn.

I need to think on Sotty still though something suddenly feels bad here, I think that sticking with my vote is right here given that Sevei has some legitimately odd interactions with DGB, and really works with nearly all of my high scum picks.

@Sotty - Compramise the Sevei/Singer lynch? If you think DH is town I think its the only way to not have that lynch occur.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama...by not even considering what roles other teams have gotten, you're taking a gambit of your own. You seem oddly afraid of someone (Equinox/Sotty) allowing someone (mith) who's been playing a decently strong town game, assuming they're "confirmed." In this game, the odds are more than just a 25% chance of getting scum; you have to factor in certain teams choosing certain players to play out those scum roles, and how unbalanced the team game would be if your team pulled any more than two scum

Engineer in me must argue math.....

Now, while the chance of a team being any number of scum is (3/13)^X, the chance of any player being scum is 3/13.

This means that odds of a team having (approx)
0 scum = 35%
1 scum = 42%
2 scum = 14%
3 scum = 5%
4 scum = ~1%

That means there is a 55% chance a team drew at least 3 scum roles, and as we apparently already saw, a 97% chance a team drew at least 2 scum roles. While you may think this is nice, you still need to play the odds, since if each player is assigned to a random game on a team and then roles are drawn, there is a 25%(ish) chance that each player is scum independantly. Like flipping heads or tails. 10 heads in a row doesnt mean the odds are better for a tails next.

The arguement that people would try hard to pick roles also ignores the secondary fact that people would pick specific games. For example there is ZERO way I would be in the dram game. I would rather have not played at all in an instant. Close to the same with the PYP game, I just dislike that type of role heavy play so pushed hard to get this game before roles even came out.

Nothing can be ruled out with math in this one. As I already showed chances are good there is a +50% scum team out there, heck its around a 12% chance there is an all scum team.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote mith

@Chris - Most of = half. One of my teammates has gone poof, the other occasionally quip in. Its a dead QT.
@mith - So half of your case is me defending and basing reads of DH-town which you now agree with?

My only hangup with Sotty-scum is that I think at this point it would need to be Sotty-Equi which is something I sure am paranoid over, but dont think is the pairing. Im actually more comfortable saying if im lynched quicklynch mith at this point instead of Sotty.

Also funny as im looking at marbles table, my "partners" are my strongest town reads.

[LlamaFluff]

If you were telling the truth, I'd have expected you to point out the 'more scummy than' bit not necessarily entirely equalling scum, not to try and make out 'most of = half'.

Well most of meaning most of the posts since its mostly one person who posted there yet half of the input... but im not sure that really accomplishes too much if you are going over my terminology for things there.

The Amrun votes/wagon is still just awful though, mith *is* right about that not being a pairing outside of Amrun-DH (and essentially conversely for DH).

I almost want to change (again) to something like mith-marble-equi at this point. This game is just giving me a headache given how fast my middling reads are changing here.

[LlamaFluff]

I still am pretty convinced that mith is scum here.

This has been gone over more than one time, but early game there is a whole lot of passive comments at DGB that really dont take solid stances. Mith thinks DGB sorta reminds him of a past scum game, mith thinks SP case on her is ok at parts, mith now thinks DGB is scum when the wagon takes off. On the other side DGB thinks mith is lurking, DGB thinks mith isnt doing much... just keeps reading like scum-scum. DGB being as opinionated as she is never takes a hardline stance on mith throughout the game despite a small exchance they had, mith floats the DGB read around until late in the day when the lynch is happening.

Since then mith really just isnt doing much. At all. Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day. More then thats its almost all regurgitated every five posts or so. He continues to call me scum with DH, and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too. One of my big things though is the way he is abandoning the DH thing right now

He is saying that because I have been defending DH the entire game, that im scum. I have had a town read on him since WAY early on in the game, and have been saying that he is town AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN. But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him. I say he is town, and because of it these others are probably town for interaction reasons and these people are scum but again, blown off and ignored by mith. When it looks like DH is going to get lynched anyway, you better be DAMN sure that if he flips town im going to shove my reads right in your face all indignant as such. This is pure BS though what he is pushing though that I was trying to line up lynches because WHAT ELSE DO I DO? You never really respond to what I am saying, just post "herp derp he could be scum with you" and continue to vote him. It takes a fakehammer for you to realize and then you say "OH WELL FLUFF IS SCUM ANYWAY".

If that is true why do you vote DH over me? You dont vote him over me, unless you are scum. Which you are. Who was trying to chain lynch DH then me, and then the DH lynch went away, so you got stranded.

[LlamaFluff]

"Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day." - ?? Quite a few of my day 2 posts were about DH... because he was my top suspect, I wanted him lynched, and we were going back and forth arguing. Almost everything? That's blatantly false.

Fine, almost everything that was related to strong reads was about DH. You go off on theory a few times, but most other things do loop back to the central point of DH being scum.

"...and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too." - Er, no... pretty much the opposite. I didn't (and don't) think Amrun is scum unless with DH, and didn't (and don't) have any interest in lynching her.

Enough of your posts were structured such that she was the second pick to DH it seemed.

"But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him." - What were you saying about him?! You haven't actually said much of anything about DH other than constantly repeating that he's town. (258, more likely town, not a strong read, no why; 444, he's town because his attacking you day one is "a bit of a town tell"... not something I can really do much with, having no meta on anyone; and then a whole lot of repeating that he's town and not in your lynch pool until very late in the day, 866, some pairing analysis which I did directly question you about.)

Partially due to not being able to word my read well, but also due to a feeling that the only thing I could word (pairings) would get the response it did from you of "well you can be with him" which lets you ignore my points for him being town.

To summarize my case (or that part of it, anyway): LlamaFluff has been very vocal about DH-town throughout, but as far as actually

defending

him, not so much (I didn't even realize how little reasoning he had given for his read on DH until ISOing him just now)... yet when he goes to L-2, he's weary of defending him and "he may not be the worst possible lynch". I just don't see any possible town motivation for that post. We weren't near deadline, we weren't in compromise mode... and until a few posts prior, DemonHybrid's wagon was one of four, and only leading by a single vote. Town in that position redouble their efforts to push things away from their town reads - they don't roll over and suggest that it won't be the worst thing in the world.

My town reads usually are very good, and I normally get stuck in situations like this where I cant explain them all that well, yet end up chasing everyone off the wagon of town. If DH feels town, im still going to just say it again and again while trying to get other reads off it. Still, you really refuse to look at this from my standpoint... people were arguing Amrun-scum and DH-scum, mostly with eachother and not anyone else. For the most part defending these wagons wasnt going so well either, yet the attacks came in such a way that if one got lynched, the other would get written as probably town. At the stage of the game nowhere near a lylo situation, yes I am fine with one mislynch to take another off the table. My read sure looks right, and if not being able to explain it well enough for you oh well. And trying to use one death to get another player cleared, I have zero problems with that if it ends up shutting down scum options. Not going to apologize for either of those at all, and I would do it again in an instant.

If I get lynched, mith tommorrow, in the first four posts. Period.

@DH - You normally start these conversations so go for it. Or move your vote somewhere useful.

[LlamaFluff]

I will get to this more tonight or tomorrow, but at this point my enitre team is in agreement with mith being scum. If I do get lynched you guys WILL lynch him in the minimum amount of posts necessary tomorrow, there will be no distraction of putzing around another lynch, it will be mith.

[LlamaFluff]

Im not going to vote marble. Pretty sure he is a mislynch, and I think that I could actually argue it from a stance that makes people agree with me for once (*cough* mith).

The wagoners are out. None of them are showing signs of wanting to come off the wagon which they would be when you look at Equinox off the wagon saying that they have intention to hammer, also removing them from the pool of with marble. The already has it down to DH, me and Sotty. DH gets a probable not given that I have a town read on him, and that marble kept him as a fairly high suspicion for most of the game, I dont think he ever was out of a top three situation. When there are as many needed mislynches as there were, and DH is as isolated in the three spot (fourth far out), and many people show DH-wagon interest, that doesnt work.

So, if someone is scum with marble, its Sotty. I just have this borderline gut feeling though that the way that they went after eachother during the first day that its not partners. This isnt the strongest feeling though, but I just really cant see a marble-scum that doesnt have sotty-scum attached to it at this point. Sotty also explicitly asked DGB to comment on marble, and had marble as a top two suspect to start the next day. So yes, not marble.

[LlamaFluff]

Dont sigh, vote someone else! Counterwagon it!

[LlamaFluff]

Because of the lack of hammer?

No. It didn't have to be a hammer. I wouldn't even have minded if either of you two had said nothing about the Llamarble wagon to let DemonHybrid and I read the pressure gauge properly. I was hoping whoever was town would play along so that Llamarble and his potential buddy if he had any could come in and help us get a read, but both of you came in and defended Llamarble from this wagon.

But there is no potential buddy. I just proved that.

@Thor - Not sure, maybe. I just think Sottys reactions, especially with the whole "one then the other" thing is more town like then miths are. Also paranoid as hell over a few people being scum that I want a night cycle first.

[LlamaFluff]

No.

Mith wagon. I am almost willing to do the MAD agreement for mith to get this done.

I dont see much more than mith for a sotty partner at this juncture that doesnt involve stretching. I see multiple working partners for mith.

[LlamaFluff]

I agree that Sotty could be a mith partner.

So let's lynch it.

No. See look, mith-Sotty works, we agree.

My problem is Sotty pairings stop becoming feasable with mith. Mith still has a few more people I can see him as scum with. Due to this, mith is the better lynch, since if the game doesnt end with his flip, it puts Sotty in a town category. If Sotty AND mith are town (unlikely but bear with me) the lynch of Sotty first does nothing to solve or prevent a mislynch of mith, while the other direction puts brakes on a runaway wagon.

Mith wagon. If you think thats the pairing, your vote goes there unless you can provide me with reasoning as to why Sotty has more possible living parters than mith does.

[LlamaFluff]

I see the Llama defending of Sotty. If he believed a Sotty/mith scumpair, he wouldn't be fighting this.

POSSIBILITY

That doesnt mean its my top pick for a pairing, its high up there but not my first pick. I just think that Sotty by lack of partner association leans town, and unless its mith-sotty I dont think its going to end the game.

[LlamaFluff]

Ready for another wrench in the gears? I think its mith-Equinox.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not moving off Llamarble until there is a Good Reason (i.e., better than what happened today, sheesh) to do so. Heck, maybe Amrun, depends on what I see when I read whenever that ever happens.

You are going to answer the following puzzle first: Llamarble is scum with _____.

There is no answer. We just lynched one of the people who he could be scum with, anyone else is a stretch. Are you arguing marble-DH? No you cant be given you think DH is town. marble-me? Thats all you can be pushing with marble when you attach Sotty-town to it.

Marble stays alive, I flat out refuse to vote him. There are only three people I would consider a vote of at this point really. Just need to spend time tonight working through which one of the pairings is the right one.

[LlamaFluff]

Amrun gets to answer the same question too for that matter.

[LlamaFluff]

DH gets to answer that question as well.

[LlamaFluff]

@Equi - I want to see who dies and then pour over pairings but maybe.
@Amrun - Lol no, mith-marble is out, and this comes from me thinking mith is scum. Im going to go out on a huge risky/limb here and say I am the one you should push if you think marble is scum, as a marble flip does nothing to "clear" me while a me flip would clear him in your book.

mith/Equi/Amrun

That is your lynch pool I think.

Everyone else is varying degrees of solid town.

[LlamaFluff]

Because if im getting fooled and BOTH scum are outside mith/Equinox, one is you. If ALL scum are in thor/chris/DH/marble, town essentially has lost at this point since I wont vote any of them outside of some agregeous slip (or however you spell that word meaning really bad, actually...) outside of some really bad slip.

[LlamaFluff]

I don't have any strong thoughts right now without seeing who scum kill. I'm basically at Fluff's point but flip Marble for Equi.

Marble with ______.

I still dont see a partner there really.

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - That situation is a easily defenseable WIFOM attack if you have played the next couple days correctly as there will be one or two people all ready to push over the edge.

Anyways, not much has changed. Going to read Equinox, Amrun and mith. Others are town enough to not be on the lynch block to me. Important votecount to me says Equi-Amrun are the right two lynches.

I almost want to actually vote Equinox here...

@Equinox - Why did you wait so long to vote DGB?

[LlamaFluff]

Also I may have bad access from monday to wednesday, should be able to at very least read along though

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - Really?

I mean, apart from (WIFOM coming) Thor flip pointing away from me and Equi (and to marble/chris although I still dislike those two lynches), you are going to need to do some heavy duty explaining on the me/Equi pair since I really am at a loss to how you can even end up there. What else is your team saying though at this point?

Now, as I said looking at the most recent NK makes the kill seem to not come from Equinox since Thor ended the day saying that he didnt find Equi as scum, and when Chris is around, why would Thor die over him if he is poised to attack mith/marble/amrun? I mean, it would need to be equi-chris almost for that to make sense. That doesnt make sense so im thinking not Equinox again.

Now its a mith or amrun thing for me more or less.

[LlamaFluff]

Amrun, Equinox, Fluff: Why are you not voting?

Beacuse I havent had time to do anything.

I am swamped by the RMP department at work right now since they picked me up to try and make sure everything is tagged out correctly, and when you are dealing with a couple thousand valves and whatnot for the regional wastewater plant, that takes time. Also am doing some more freelance stuff afternoons/nights for the last few days, which im about to leave to pick up a final small shift for. That ends today though so I will have at least part of my evenings back.

Just about all my time recently has gone to modding games though. Expect me to get caught back up here tomorrow or thursday when I have more than five/ten minutes since I really need it as I think on actions DH/marble are town. On NK-WIFOM of last night Equinox is town unless its with Chris. Chris is town for whatever reason, but the remaining mith-amrun pair doesnt work well.

[LlamaFluff]

You know what, we are doing this anyway.

Vote mith

DH is town, marble is town. Those two are definants.

Chris is next one out, I dont really think he can be scum without this being a complete crock of bastard modding where TBM changed the rules and gave scum QTs though, maybe but not going to vote there. If its Chris, almost for sure its with Equinox or someone Equinox is fairly sure is town.

Leaves Amrun, Equinox, mith, and a problem.

I really dont think its mith-Equinox, while it wouldnt be a complete shocker, I dont think thats happening. mith-Amrun? Again probably no, but this one is far more less out of the question then most people really consider it. I actually went back and checked something, interesting enough mith hasnt voted Amrun, which surprised me. Quite a few times he has posted in sequence something like "ooh that was interesting from Amrun, I need to reread amrun" and then "I dont think she is scum lets vote X instead"

Will get up more later, but at this point my list is looking something like

mith, amrun <gap> Equinox <little gap> chris <big big gap> DH, marble

Again, DH and marble town
If its chris its with mith/amrun/Equinox, with HEAVY prefrence to Equinox and a very low (but existant unlike DH/marble) chance of Amrun.

Also voting mith for gut
Also for what dead players have said. Yes it is important, outside of IP they all wanted him dead. You know the "why thor instead of chris?" question? Three possible answers

1) Chris is scum
2) Thor was more active
3) Thor was more right (note he said mith/marble/amrun as his lynches)

I vote three

I vote mith

I probably wont have time to post again until tomorrow (working outside all day fries you, also working next to a 100 ton liquid chlorine tank tires you due to nerves)

[LlamaFluff]

I talked a little to my team.

Chris stole the #3 spot from Equniox.

Biggest paranoia here is that Equinox-Chris makes SO SO SO much sense this game, and they both end up below the top two area.

NK speculation is WIFOM, but there are big things attached

1) SP was pretty adament about mith scum. As much as his playstyle bugs me at times, when he is reading well he is reading well. There are also a few other people that could have got killed instead of him there if he was going to lead town way down wrong path (he seemed to have mith/Amrun).
2) IP a good kill from anyone. Its mafia 101, you do NOT NOT NOT want the unpredictable player who is viewed as town alive. Its a rouge person who people are going to give backing to the reads of. Terrifying player to deal with. I have had a game where I killed Furcolow over a confirmed mason going into lylo because I had no clue where he would go after a mason death.
3) Thor nightkill is huge. It (seriously) makes no sense from me to kill him over chris unless I am scum with chris. Thor had JUST said that he agrees with me on two of my top two reads. I mean, why would anyone if chris is town outside of mith/amrun/marble ever push for him to be killed? Again this *could* point to chris-equinox, because despite thor saying equinox was town, there would be no real kill apart from chris.

So I need to think about this more.

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: It makes a great deal of sense for you (/your partner) to kill Thor if...

a. You're scum with Chris.
b. You're scum with Marble or Amrun, and the kill was more to do with your partner than yourself.
c. You wanted to be able to make a WIFOM argument that it doesn't make any sense for you to kill Thor (while in 1373 giving motivation for almost everyone else still alive to do so).
d. You're scum with pretty much anyone other than Chris and felt Chris was more lynchable than Thor. (See Also: Chris creeping up Fluff's list, for no apparent reason.)
e. Some combination of the above.

Well WIFOM but...

a - I wouldnt have. Probably would have gone with marble since most people were pushing that I am scum with him specifically so it would get that out of the way while keeping thor around to lynch you and amrun.
b - Then chris was the kill. Amrun I would have treated this game entirely different if I was scum with her, marble it would be considered but Thor talked in such a way that it wasnt his top pick, so again getting read of universal town read chris is better. Also Amrun? Seriously? Again im not foolish enough to slowly inch a very lynchable partner up my scumlist as the game goes on
c - Backing of my reads by a general town read is far more important than trying to set up a 'maybe WIFOM' situation
d - I have three people solidly over chris in wanting to lynch starting the day so there goes that arguement. The NK and pairing probability pushes chris over equinox as he works with more of my top reads then equinox does. Are you saying you disagree with some of my justification?
e - All covered, yadda yadda.

Either way, I make lots of more unorthidox kills as scum since I usually dont care about the immediate threats, but more where my support is going to come from. Who cares if you get rid of someone who thinks you are scum, ESPECIALLY in a game like this, when no one else is going to listen to your reads? Backing of what you think is going to be the best thing scum can have going for them in this game type. Why would I give away the person who backed my read more than anyone else in the game? Chris would have been the obvious kill if I was scum with anyone but him, if with him probably marble who isnt getting lynched and clears up one of the pairing people are pushing me on. Im not a complete idiot, I know what the right kills for me are as scum, which Thor was most certaintly not.

Anyway!

Impossible pairings (it will NOT be any of these)
Marble-Amrun
Chris-DH
Chris-Marble
Mith-DH
Amrun-DH

Unlikely pairings (not quite as unlikely, but the chance of happening is neglegable)
Equinox-Marble
Equinox-Amrun
Equinox-DH
DH-marble
mith-marble

Neutral Pairings (torn)
Equinox-mith
mith-Amrun

Decent Pairings (good chance)
Chris-mith
Amrun-Chris

Great Pairings (top picks)
Equinox-Chris


See this is where im just frustrated

This list shows DH is town, and marble is almost for sure town (someone challenge one of those, I dare you). Also shows probably not Equinox (writing this out is where my read there shifted). Whats more interesting though is how much it really points to a chris-scum or mith-scum thing here. I mean, as wierd as I KNOW this has to sound, I almost want a Chris lynch. At the same time, mith is a decent lynch since there really are few people he *cant* be scum with.

Just Grah really.

I mean, two bullets at this point? Not even sure really, but I know its in the mith/amrun/chris trio, heavily leaning mith-chris for the two shots, but Amrun really isnt a poor one. Yes im that confused at all this right now, and need to think about it indepth

unvote

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Chris

It makes too much sense.

[LlamaFluff]

NKs and possible pairings mostly. Also he just voted DH and im like "oh hellz no he didnt" so I went back and looked at other stuff and then was like "oh snap he actually could be scum here"

Oh and by the way, I get lynched that means under no circumstances DH or marble get lynched tomorrow. Seriously, to the extent where either of them being voted should be taken as a confession of being scum.

[LlamaFluff]

Amrun-Chris is likely enough... really not sure how to assign things like that percentages since there are so many variables though. It would be a top three choice for me however.

@Amrun - The slip is the *only* reason to not consider him obviously scum, and the only reason I didnt vote him until now. Just everything else points at it though. His way of constantly saying DGB is scummy yet finding a way to keep his suspicion limited and then push onto the opposing wagon which felt a little out of place. Subsequent pushes have also been lacking in just about everything, especially the DH attack which I really do not see happening. Also are you agreeing that when I get lynched you are never going to vote DH or Marble? I want you to say it such to the extent that if you vote them you will be auto-lynched.

[LlamaFluff]

To better show what I mean with the possible slip is the ONLY thing that Chris has going for him...

Goof also has my FOS, based on his jumping all over lurkers within hours of the game starting. Lurker-hunting is always a nice way to make it look like you're doing something active. On top of that, his 'town list' corresponds exactly with my 'scum list'.

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he.

<snip>

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

<snip>

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

Ok this is big.

Chris first takes a little lolz FoS DGB because she is harping on him hard for lurking (yet never actually attacks him hard). Later, all is from ONE post which is just wow. First he lays out that Equniox is his top scum pick, fair enough, then we move on to DGB where he says he likes the SP case on her and gives credit to it, yet wont vote and instead throws the vote on the counterwagon (who according to line one is not his top pick). It feels way off for him to brush by his top pick and jump on a latter one while at the same time saying he agrees with the case on scum, yet wont vote for them.

@Amrun - Who is marble scum with?
@Chris - Who is DH scum with?

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff, why is Amrun-DH impossible?

DH is turning an Amrun-town read around at the last minute, when most players in the game are already slightly suspicious of her, it really makes no sense for him to do such if they are partners because it could very easily trigger the lynch. Just keeping what he has been saying makes much more sense there if they were scum together.

Chris timing of intention to vote me is enough to make me more happy with my vote, and some of the marble points there fall flat, especially the second because its exactly what competent scum does in that situation if it can help them at all.

Anyways, here is what you do if you lynch me

1) Dont lynch DH or marble tomorrow
2) Dont lynch DH or marble tomorrow
3) Probably dont lynch Equinox tomorrow
4) Pay attention to past NKs
5) Lynch one of mith/amrun/chris
6) Im not sure who that probably should be, but I lean Amrun/Chris at this point actually given that unless its Equinox-mith or Equniox-marble (both unlikely but wouldnt be COMPLETELY shocking) you are looking at a 50-50 win chance.

[LlamaFluff]

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

Marbles points, not yours.

Who am I scum with?

[LlamaFluff]

Also

People who have agreed that voting marble/DH is claiming scum tomorrow after I flip: Amrun
People who still need to agree to it: Everyone else

If I am getting lynched today you are damn sure not allowed to lynch the people that only I am defending. Amrun should know this well from Cold War where I pull a wagon off town, then get killed and they immediately get lynched on the exact same case the next day, only difference is I wasnt there anymore to defend them. I am serious enough about this to policy vote anyone who wont agree today.

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: 1393, Equinox, go.

DH and marble are town (although if there is a pairing there its marble-Equniox due to when and how Sotty wagon started). You and Equniox only read scum from you to him, while the other way around it feels a little too brash to actually be scum in a white flag game since he keeps inching you towards the leaning scum list in a game that continually turns on a dime. Its mostly that as Equinox reads scum by a bit to me, it is VERY hard to sell him with anyone but Chris here, which detracts from that lynch heavily.

Amrun while I have about the same pairing availability, I see as more likely scum individually. Ehhhh... I just am at a complete damn loss right now for what to do next, and am *this* close from just sheeping DH for the rest of the game with my vote while trying to make sure DH/marble dont get lynched with my action since that looks like its going to be a far better use of my time.

[LlamaFluff]

@Chris - You didnt agree to not lynch DH and marble tomorrow. You still need to do that or provide concrete evidence why they are scum together today. Also you *just* said that the person who is trying to lynch me and I said that I would be perfectly fine lynching is my partner. Try again. If you are town, you are better then this. If you are scum, I expect about this much.

@DH/marble - If you are both alive tomorrow, together vote anyone who votes for one of you, it should win the game.

You lynch pool for tomorrow is mith/chris/amrun, dont lynch equinox unless you are specifically arguing him with marble

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: If you're town, I won't be voting for DH or Marble. I don't see any viable partners for either of them outside of you.

Which is why im done defending myself and instead trying to line up dont lynches for tomorrow since its about all that I can do to make sure town wins the game at this point.

List of has agreed: Amrun, mith
List of wont agree/ignoring: Chris
List of needs to agree: Equinox

Remember, if Amrun or mith vote DH or marble tomorrow, lynch them immediately.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not willing to say 'I absolutely won't vote for someone'. Currently, I have no intentions of voting for either. However, I've been flip turned upside down too many times in this game already.

*sigh*

You KNOW what flip coming im talking about. Mine. Town. No surprise on who flips. Lets say scum no kills. Agree or disagree with not voting them?

I think at this stage in the game, a good scum team is going to be playing bold, and throwing WIFOM in front of WIFOM. It's entirely possible that Llamarble has just played me. One thing going against you being town is that nobody's hammered yet. There's obvious opportunity here. This suggests that either you're scum and someone off the wagon is also scum, or you're town and two scum are already on the wagon.

Lol. You are cute scum.

First, you are ignoring the fact that no one who isnt voting me has actually posted, your arguement falls apart immediately there. Also im not overly confident that both scum are on my wagon, but at least one is (unless its Equniox-marble again). This statement sure makes it sound like you are willing to say you wont lynch DH-marble though, so why wont you commit to it actually?

Again, next post give me good reason as to why DH-marble are scum together or just claim scum. Im not making you remove them from the equation at all actually, im just reducing the pool of mislynches as much as possible by making you not be able to lynch them directly. You think its Equinox-marble? You vote Equinox tomorrow because he works with others. You do NOT. Under ANY circumstance vote marble. Capiche? Prove me wrong or agree, your options are one or the other, not "oh Im not sure".

[LlamaFluff]

(What I don't understand, regardless of Fluff's alignment, is why he's still voting Chris B. The resignation to being lynched to the point of not switching to the counter-wagon, who he says is in the lynch pool, does not strike me as pro-town... but it doesn't make sense as scum either unless there's some longer-term advantage I'm missing.)

Because if I dont lynch scum today im going to probably get mislynched for the loss tomorrow. Im nowhere near confident enough in Amrun-scum to lynch her over Chris, so im not going to vote Amrun here, nearly tempted to say even to save myself.

@Chris - You are the only one left to agree, lets go.

[LlamaFluff]

@mod

- Given that this is an open game, can we have the mafia role posted in the OP as well?

Mod edit: Sure

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - I DONT KNOW. That is my problem with this game right now, usually I can lob up a really easy case on anyone at anytime in the game which is why I have a rediculously high win rate as scum. They are easy to fabricate as scum to me, and they are just as easy to create as town when the game needs to move in a specific direction regardless of my reads on players. Now this may be the first game, ever, where I cant make a case to save my life, litereally. Its always a paranoia of me maybe being wrong on this scum read over the other one, not having no real basis to lynch anyone, which is just causing me to revert more to my defend others playstyle which usually is indicative of me being lost. I havent found my way out though, and am just digging deeping into utter confusion.

I mean... shit.

Chris has the daytalk thing
Equinox has the infodump thing
You have the posts from teammates
DH is town by default here
Marble is basically at the same thing...
Amrun I just am confused on but get the gut town read

I just have NO clue whats going on at this point. I mean, I almost keep looping back to Equniox-Marble but that goes against other reads then I think that mith/amrun are the right lynches although Chris really solves so much. I really dont know. I mean, my choice basically is changing constantly and the only thing I can really say with some form of certainty is that its not a few specific pairing and I wont vote marble/DH (although I still can see Equinox-Marble due to the end of marble/start of sotty transition).

Then again I want to just say "kill Equniox/Amrun" since otherwise the L-2 wagon on IP-town day one was all town.

[LlamaFluff]

That was a really exciting game. Everyone loves a come-from-nowhere win.

Maybe for scum...

Honestly I was almost ready to replace out around D2 because the play from IP was pissing me off that much. I could deal with someone thinking im scum but I felt like he was refusing to listen to anything that I said about anyone else for a vast majority of the game. Game and setup are decent, but I really lost almost all interest in the game around D2 due to that exchange.