Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Sathoris]

Sorry for only replying now. More shut off here than I though and only just managed to find a place with internet connection but it shuts down in 8 minutes.

Enigma is not my preferred lynch at the moment, I'd rather see Bvoigt lynched than Enigma at the moment so I'll put my vote on him for now.
VOTE: Bvoight

I'll be back friday afternoon with full inet access.

[PeregrineV]

I think we can agree to disagree. That's why we each have a vote, to use as we need to.
So, if you may, please give your non-craplogic case on smargaret, so we can all lynch her and move onto the next lynch.

[PeregrineV]

Post above was to The Fonz.

But also disagree with bvoigt lynch.

[Sotty7]

10th vote count of day 5

smargaret - 1 -

The Fonz

Sathoris - 1 -

bvoigt

PeregrineV - 2 -

smargaret, Beasts of the Sea

bvoigt - 2 -

Enigma, Sathoris

Enigma - 2 -

Furcolow, ThAdmiral

Beasts of the sea - 1 -

PeregrineV

Not voting - 1 -

Lowell

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
  
• sathoris
  is V/LA

[The Fonz]

I think we can agree to disagree. That's why we each have a vote, to use as we need to.

Except that a big part of the town is persuading other people. You can't achieve a lynch with one person's vote alone. The case on Smarg is obvious enough. That she deliberately and knowingly set up a 1-1 with a town player should be enough to auto-lynch her, but somehow it seems that this town is actually allergic to lynching incredibly scummy people. The fact that I don't think I've ever seen a wagon get to 8 players without any scum on it. The fact that she's using 'When I flip town, they will come for you' type appeals to fear to try to scare me off of her.

While we're at it, we never did get a proper explanation of 'misrepgate.'

[ThAdmiral]

And again, everyone currently feysalling needs to vote so we know where we stand.

Omg so true!

(Lowell - I hate you right now)

10th vote count of day 5

smargaret - 1 -

The Fonz

Sathoris - 1 -

bvoigt

PeregrineV - 2 -

smargaret, Beasts of the Sea

bvoigt - 2 -

Enigma, Sathoris

Enigma - 2 -

Furcolow, ThAdmiral

Beasts of the sea - 1 -

PeregrineV

Not voting - 1 -

Lowell

Holy shit can we ever get more than 2 votes on someone? EVER?!! ANYONE?!??

[ThAdmiral]

Town is totally going to lose this game because of retarded voting. Everyone is so goddamn stubborn!

[bvoigt]

@The Fonz- If you feel my argument is so bad, please explain to the best of your ability the high degree of similarity between Beasts number of votes and those of VP Baltar and Scott Brosius? Even Stephoscope was only voted on 3 occasions- the players just held thier votes over multiple days.

Sorry, but Fonz is right. Scum want to avoid getting voted, but so do town. And you can't choose the amount of times that people vote you. BTW, what was your nationality again?

I'll try to do some more analysis once everyone claims nationalities, but I know my vote needs to be somewhere else.

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

[Beasts of the Sea]

I am French.

Well, Mr American scum, because I do not believe there are any Soviet scum left. Am I wrong?

Yes, for a couple reasons. I have to once again say that balance wise two goons and a rolecop (three total) on a team in a game of 24 doesn't really seem like a balanced faction. In addition, gonnano claimed watcher results so unless he made up two nights of watcher results (highly unlikely) the Soviets have a watcher.

So, armed with this, it makes one wonder: were there any really major wagons Smarg wasn't on? My research yields precisely one: DavidParker. She maintained her one-woman wagon on Stephoscope throughout the lifetime of the DavidParker wagon, then jumped on Amrun after it had lost most of its momentum. This is a strong associative tell- I've found in the past, to my cost, that just jumping every single big wagon isn't indicative of scum. It's indicative of newbie or VI town who are really easily swayed. However, that on this one specific occasion and no other, she passed up a big wagon, is a scumbuddy hint.

I hadn't thought of it in this way before. Good insight.

@ fonz: there are already 2 people on enigma, and I believe more could be convinced. Enigma today, smarg tomorrow?

Or, as an alternative, PV or Enigma today and the other tomorrow?

Spend a bit of time reading his games. EVERY SINGLE TIME HE IS SCUM HE BUSSES. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
SO PREDICTABLE THAT EVEN A BLIND MONKEY WOULD NOTICE.

So how do you distinguish DavidParker's votes on Artem and gonnano as not busses?

How about instead of making everyone guess, you just tell us what your motivation to not read the game could be?

Use the gift I so kindly gave you.

Now you are just being intentionally difficult. You gave a list of possible reasons you didn't read my post, and now I am supposed to put on a sarcasm hat and make sense out of it?

The "entire case on you" hardly rests on your predecessors play. Or weren't you reading?

Or were you not reading? Or at least not in context. They are pushing scum solely because of voting patterns. Because my predecessor is one of the few unconfirmed on a town wagon ... which surely must always be pushed by scum no?

You forgot the parts where I called you scum for feigning surprise at there being two scum teams and then trying to muddy the waters with some sort of SK or third party running around. It isn't solely based on vote count analysis and you and I both know it. And no, wagons are not always pushed by scum, but the odds of a wagon getting to seven or eight votes without a single scum on it are astronomical.

[ThAdmiral]

@ fonz: there are already 2 people on enigma, and I believe more could be convinced. Enigma today, smarg tomorrow?

Or, as an alternative, PV or Enigma today and the other tomorrow?

If you are happy getting on enigma, then get on enigma. We need to consolidate votes.

[ThAdmiral]

Lowell
Furcolow
BotS
Thad

voting bloc?

We really need to get our shit together.

This is still on offer btw.

In fact Fonz also gets an invite for recent good participation.

[The Fonz]

Unvote, Vote PeregrineV

Bvoight's switch leaves me as a one-fer. I'd still somewhat prefer a Peregrine wagon to an Enigma one. Nationality claim analysis coming.

[The Fonz]

OK, this is a fucking wall. Live with it- it's a detailed analysis with several steps.

Claims

LIVING

2 American
4 Soviet
4 Others

(1 Polish
1 Albanian
1 French
1 West German)

DEAD

5 American
4 Soviet
5 Others


(Counting 'Vietnamese Soviet' and 'Hungarian Soviet' as the nationality, rather than the scumgroup name).

TOTAL

7 American
8 Soviet
9 Others

Here are my best guesses as to what we're facing.

There are a few factors at play here:

1) I would expect the setup to be 8-8-8 or 7-7-10 rather than 7-8-9.
2) I would expect the US to have some roles parallel to Gonnano's and Baltar's, namely American scum with non-American nationalities.
3) I would expect these players to feel safe to claim their nationalities honestly, meaning at least one, probably two scum in the Group <(Me) - Smarg - Sath - BoTS> . Though Sathoris looks scummy, I can't think of any Albanians that would make sense as American scum. Of course, it goes without saying who I think the best bet in this group is.

4) There are four dead American, and three dead Soviet town players.
5) From this, working on the assumption that there are equal numbers of Americans and Soviets, which I think is reasonable, there is one more living protown Soviet than there are living protown Americans.
6) Therefore, the following are possibilities:

i) All the living American Mafia claimed non-American nationalities. Enigma and ThAd are town, and the remainder are split between soviet and 'others.'

ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.

iii) Both the claimed Americans are American scum, and that leaves two between the other eight players.

Obviously if the living Soviet claimed American or something, that fucks everything up, but I don't find it plausible.


Further to the above:

I don't find iii) plausible, since I really would expect there to be American counterparts to the Vietnamese/Hungarian Soviet scum, and I don't think the Americans would be stupid enough to have these players fakeclaim US American names. Therefore, at least one of Enigma and ThAd is town.

i) is possible, but I think ii) is most likely. Especially since, when Enigma claimed, he seemed to be under the impression that there were NO other claimed yanks. In that situation, he is likely to have thought it safe to claim his actual name.

A soviet mafia would very likely have claimed Soviet here- it seems safe enough. My best guess in isolation would be Peregrine. Of course, he seems tied to Smarg as well, and of course they couldn't be Soviet together. I still find Furc scummier than Lowell or bvoight.

I don't think more than one American would have claimed Soviet. Likely the one under least suspicion, since the less scummy one would be going later in massclaim. It would be risky in terms of counterclaim, but it might protect from crosskills since presumably Soviet mafia would be less likely to suspect claimed Soviets of being American. I certainly don't think Furc's American- if he's scum, I'm pretty sure he's Soviet.

I think Smarg and Enigma are American, and the last Soviet is probably either Peregrine or Furc, with Peregrine also being a pretty good bet to be American due to Smarg ties. Lowell and Bvoight continue to be town reads. Really, the major effect of this nationality claim for me is to move Sathoris down a little, and Beasts up somewhat (since French, along with German, makes the most sense as a free world equivalant of Kadar and Ho).

I do think any American group which doesn't include Smarg would pretty much have to include both Enigma and Beasts. (Or to put it another way, I don't think Thad and Beasts are both scum, and I don't think that more than one US Scumbag will have claimed to have a Communist nationality).
__________________________________________________________________________
TL;DR:

ENIGMA AND THAD ARE NOT BOTH SCUM
TWO OF THREE OF BEASTS, SMARG, ENIGMA ARE AMERICAN
PEREGRINEV SCUMMIEST CLAIMED SOVIET

[Enigma]

(Ensure sarcasm hat is off here).

Did Penegrinev claim soviet? I can't see it. Maybe I'm blind.

I still don't like bvoigt and sathoris, adding to how they have also been voting each other as of late.

I don't mind your nationality claim. Kinda sums up what I was saying/thinking but much more detail. What I had in my mind was the claim order.
Me: American
Sath: Albanian
Bvoigt: Soviet
Lowell: Soviet
Furc: Soviet
Fonz: Polish

---
Smarg was West German I think?
---

Keep in mind, that American scum would be less gutsy to do a claim such as Albanian or Polish ... I wouldn't have thought of Albania .... kinda like the surprise Vietnam flip.

Which is why still imo bvoigt is the best lynch for today.
Sath I'll chill back a bit, but don't mind him or Pere if someone needs to die today.

[PeregrineV]

Going to respond out of order.
@Whoever missed it- DavidParker claimed Soviet Townie here, complete with name: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2818193
Soviet scum team questions it here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2818261
American scum team brings it up here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2818602

@The Fonz- decent analyis. Also like how #3 admits that Beasts may be scum. I concur with that name on the list. Also, I'm Soviet.

@Enigma- Can you post the complete living player list with nationality claim, since you seem to have a consolidated one?

[Enigma]

I just went thru the last few pages and picked them out in order. Still missing a few claims though.

Also it slipped my mind the Pere was the DP replacement slot. The Soviet Townie claim at that time makes him even less likely to be American scum.
Votes elsewhere please! (Hint: Bvoigt)

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

[The Fonz]

(Ensure sarcasm hat is off here).

Did Penegrinev claim soviet? I can't see it. Maybe I'm blind.

PeregrineV did not claim Soviet, but

DavidParker

did, so the slot had claimed.

I still don't like bvoigt and sathoris, adding to how they have also been voting each other as of late.

Could you explain your bvoigt suspicion? As far as I can see, he's had a mix of popular (Gonnano, Feysal, DavidParker) and independent (Stephoscope, Sathoris) suspicions, the scum he suspected (esp Gonnano) he was on early, he's not lurked, he's not made any truly horrible arguments, he's made some town reads. I can't see any single thing that says 'more likely to be done by scum' there. About the only thing is not having delivered any dead American scum, but then, no-one has done that.

Keep in mind, that American scum would be less gutsy to do a claim such as Albanian or Polish ... I wouldn't have thought of Albania .... kinda like the surprise Vietnam flip.

Yeah, like I say... Sathoris' claim helps him in my eyes. It doesn't come close to clearing him, since Albania was probably the most obscure country in the Ostbloc, so the one least likely to produce a counterclaim.

[PeregrineV]

I am French.

Well, Mr American scum, because I do not believe there are any Soviet scum left. Am I wrong?

Yes, for a couple reasons. I have to once again say that balance wise two goons and a rolecop (three total) on a team in a game of 24 doesn't really seem like a balanced faction. In addition, gonnano claimed watcher results so unless he made up two nights of watcher results (highly unlikely) the Soviets have a watcher.

Excellent-
So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.
Please label each living player as to thier scum or town affiliation.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- If you feel my argument is so bad, please explain to the best of your ability the high degree of similarity between Beasts number of votes and those of VP Baltar and Scott Brosius? Even Stephoscope was only voted on 3 occasions- the players just held thier votes over multiple days.

See, if you explain to me why Beasts is the same (under the radar, very low vote count) as the other mafia on paper, but oh so different just because, then I will switch my vote to someone else.

Otherwise, you can vote for Beasts also.

No. That's craplogic. That some scum were able to avoid getting votes doesn't mean that all the people who didn't get a lot of votes were scum. It's like saying 'We lynched two lurking town, so the rest of the lurkers must be town also.' Only one person voted for LMP all game, no-one ever voted for Nachomamma. Hardly anyone's voted for Lowell, either.

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that when I replaced in, the town lynch record was 1 scum, 2 town (now 3). Scum and vig kills have had better luck (or skill) at killing scum than whatever "traditional" scumhunting techniques were previously employed over the last month.

So, I'm presenting a case based on what I see is a pattern match to behavoir combined with reading the posts. Explain to me why it's craplogic when it it has yet to be proven wrong (or right).

[The Fonz]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

[PeregrineV]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

If you wouldn't mind, your town/scum reads since you believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

If there are only 2 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 6 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??

[PeregrineV]

If there are 4 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 2 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum Soviet (alive): ??

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??, ??

[The Fonz]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

If you wouldn't mind, your town/scum reads since you believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

Well, I explained in quite a bit of detail precisely where I think the mafia are hiding. But since you asked, for the sake of clarity:

1 Beasts of the Sea - neutral to leaning scum - much more likely to be American if scum, mostly based on nationality claim rather than actual play
4 Enigma - Probably scum, definitely American if scum
6 PeregrineV - Scummy and could belong to either faction
8 ThAdmiral - Townish - can't entirely rule out American scum, but would require multiple scummier people to be town, not Soviet Scum
10 Furcolow - Possibly soviet scum, don't see as American, believe he has claimed his actual rolename either way
11 Lowell - town
13 smargaret - Scum, American
18 bvoigt - town
22 The Fonz - Confirmed town to myself
24 Sathoris - neutral to leaning town

[PeregrineV]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

So, based on my prior posts and your prior posts, we should be hanging both ThAd and Enigma, and Beasts. Scott was US, ThAd & Enigma are US, and Beasts is the US version of the Vietnamese mafia. smargaret would be the West German town neighbor ot he East german Town Feysal.
Then, after those three are dead, we can kill the last of me/Lowell/Furcolow/Bvoight. You know, as the last soviet scum.

Ummm...not buying it.

But if you still do, vote Beasts and get him off of the list now.

P-edit: Posting this anyway, but will respond to your response next.