Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[MrBuddyLee]

Maybe Bella? I've eliminated everyone else for weak reasons as well.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I got her down for "neighbors are somewhat more likely to be town" and "it makes sense to let a claimed neighbor perform the nightkill".

[Meransiel]

That being the case, it still isn't a horrible idea to track her the following night.

[Shanba]

Vote Count:
3: Mrbuddylee

(Cogito Ergo sum, Amrun, Apokalyptica)

1: Scotmany12

(Apokalyptica)
Not Voting:

Scotmany12, Meransiel, MrBuddyLee Bella, implosion

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Bella needs prodding.

MBL should vote.

Meransiel shouldn't be trying to guide my choices.

[Meransiel]

I just said it isn't a horrible idea. She doesn't speak almost at all with me during the night, I can't find out anything about her.

[Shanba]

Bella is being prodded

[MrBuddyLee]

Unvote: Meran, Vote: MBL

I'll go along with this for a bit; do you want to elaborate or not?

VOTE: mrbuddylee

Why are you two voting for me?

[Amrun]

A) I thought CES was saying he had results on you.

B) I am still suspicious of you.

Since CES doesn't have role results on you, it is time to change.

VOTE: Merensial

Implied foreknowledge of Apok's alignment.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not going to vote until we hear more from Bella.

I doubt implo is scum based primarily on the fact that he apparently didn't commit the first nightkill, but also because he sounds somewhat townish. I don't think CES is scum.

I'd be surprised if kunk tried to get scumpartner Apok lynched over nopoint so close to deadline yesterday. (CES, do you agree?)

That leaves scot, Meransiel, Amrun, all of whom have said things that come across as varying degrees of townish. I don't like a few things about each, but that's not a complete case.

scot doesn't seem to have any firm suspects right now. (But as I'm explaining, that's not entirely unlike a town position right now.) He went after mozamis harder than I did for mozamis accusing me of bullshit things. Got the same townish vibe off Meransiel that I did mid yesterday. Locked in a bit hard on nopoint/iam for very rigid reasons. Looking for a bit more analysis from him on the remaining players. Don't really see his opinion of Amrun anywhere. Or Meransiel lately.

Meransiel bothers me with a lot of his little details, but I got a town vibe first half of yesterday despite nagging little things. However, he hasn't expressed a reasoned suspect in forever, which is scummy. I don't like how quickly he accepted Apok as a town doublevoter, particularly considering he seems to most recently agree that CES, Amrun and I are town, that doesn't leave many scum candidates.

Amrun is loose with the facts and quick to suspect for crappy reasons, but seems fairly interested in finding scum. I don't like that she's sheeping like a maniac--sheeping on a bad Apok point, sheeping on a CES vote, quick to agree with my FOS of Meransiel. I didn't like her move to Meransiel yesterday to seal a nopoint lynch, but if Apok is town, that's mostly irrelevant. She voted me today while claiming to suspect Meransiel both end of yesterday and start of today. Sketchy, but possibly just loose, somewhat irrational play like Ether played in the last game CES and I played together.

Little to go on with Bella, but I didn't dig:

Also: Meransiel is an idiot. Thanks for claiming for me on day one. Neighbour doesn't mean one must be scum. Shanba is too smart for that. The lack of confirmation significantly weakens the power of the role, which helps with the balance. Bleh.

Why idiot and not scum? Didn't seem to suspect Meransiel at all for the unprovoked claim.

CES I have a less strong read on, but I'd be willing to bet he's town. He's playing in a manner consistent with previous experience of his town play, at least - particularly the "vote without stating reasons" thing that's been leveled against him, I've seen him do that plenty of times as town.

Really not sure there was enough to go on to be willing to bet CES was town at the time. He was tunneled on nopoint and poking at Amrun. Null at best for me, thus I see Bella's statement here as overreaching and possibly scummy. "he votes without reasons as town" is a lousy argument for pro-town CES on April 12th.

[MrBuddyLee]

B) I am still suspicious of you.

Why? Your last few reasons (protecting CES, protecting mozamis) have pretty much been proven incorrect.

[Amrun]

My current suspect list (in order):

1. Merensiel
2. Scotmany (for not voting kunk yesterday and lack of content recently)
3. Bella (lack of content)
4. MBL- Lingering gut, mostly. Earlier vote was due to misunderstanding.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why do you think Implosion would've made the first nightkill, MBL?

Amrun, we're lynching scotmany or MBL today.

[Apokalyptika]

MBL--CES seemed like he had a thing going, so I wanted to see where he would go with it.

scotmany, even if you couldn't get back in time to vote, it makes no sense to just say that you have no problem with kunk claiming his role. It doesn't achieve anything but a pale, noncommittal distancing. I think this is a better lynch than MBL, and I'm debating whether I want to put two votes on him.

[scotmany12]

scotmany, even if you couldn't get back in time to vote, it makes no sense to just say that you have no problem with kunk claiming his role. It doesn't achieve anything but a pale, noncommittal distancing. I think this is a better lynch than MBL, and I'm debating whether I want to put two votes on him.

It makes perfect sense. I had my reasons, that were related to ces, for wanting the claim. You're reaching. I never had any chance to commit to the lynch, since I wasn't around after he claimed.

Same goes to amrun who just ignored my earlier statement about not being around during the lynch.

I am still not seeing the case on MBL. I think he is town, and ces is town. I'm going to reread amrun soon and see what I think of her.

[MrBuddyLee]

Amrun, we're lynching scotmany or MBL today.

Ignore this.

MBL--CES seemed like he had a thing going, so I wanted to see where he would go with it.

So why are you still going with it? Both of your current votes are for outdated/incorrect reasons.

Why do you think Implosion would've made the first nightkill, MBL?

Because he was perceived as more clear than kunkstar, and therefore less likely to be roleblocked or tracked. The only way he wouldn't have been chosen, imo, is if he was a traitor not part of the scumteam yet. (I am suspect of the 2 scum + traitor possibility given (1) 7 days for N1 and (2) 2 days for N2 hint that a required process that existed N1 no longer needs to occur--the discussion/agreement about who to attempt to integrate as a traitor is a possibility.)

double voter analysis:
Incorrect D1 vig + incorrect lynches D1 and D2 + nightkills N1 and N2 = 13-5=8 with 3 scum, one being a double voter, the game'd be at lynch or lose (and require all 5 town votes to align to overcome 4 scum votes) pretty damned early. Plus, Apok had no incentive to claim the role if scum--if she committed the nightkill, she'd have probably claimed cop or some such, if she didn't, she'd more likely have claimed vanilla and kept the double vote hidden? It's somewhat unlikely that Apok's scum at this point.

nightkill analysis:
PJ was a weird nightkill, considering he'd made it clear he was a 1-shot vig while CES had the potential to still investigate. Either scum didn't fear being investigated by CES N2 or they wanted to frame me by killing PJ--dude didn't express suspicion of ANYONE else after mozamis died. CES claimed to suspect Apok and MBL end of D1, so that's another reason to suspect Apok less--CES might have been the preferential nightkill for her over PJ.

Amrun, scot, Bella, Meransiel. Two scum in that batch, most likely.

[Amrun]

Scot, I didn't ignore it. It's just a "take my word for it" thing, which I can't trust. It's not the sole reason to suspect you anyway.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(I am suspect of the 2 scum + traitor possibility given (1) 7 days for N1 and (2) 2 days for N2 hint that a required process that existed N1 no longer needs to occur--the discussion/agreement about who to attempt to integrate as a traitor is a possibility.)

I complained to Shanba about the excessive length of Night 1 and he agreed with me. It's meaningless.

nightkill analysis:
PJ was a weird nightkill, considering he'd made it clear he was a 1-shot vig while CES had the potential to still investigate. Either scum didn't fear being investigated by CES N2 or they wanted to frame me by killing PJ--dude didn't express suspicion of ANYONE else after mozamis died. CES claimed to suspect Apok and MBL end of D1, so that's another reason to suspect Apok less--CES might have been the preferential nightkill for her over PJ.

I think the scum were worried about protection. Consider that they didn't kill PJ N1.

[Bella]

This is a post because Shanba is yelling at me and I don't have time to post properly.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hint: make time.

[Meransiel]

Meransiel bothers me with a lot of his little details, but I got a town vibe first half of yesterday despite nagging little things. However, he hasn't expressed a reasoned suspect in forever, which is scummy.

Scummy? Hell, it's anti-town at most. I'm sorry that nobody looks overly scum to me, but you'll just have to live with it. I have some town reads, though.

[implosion]

Prod dodge. I'll hopefully be posting content later today, but these upcoming weeks are likely to be somewhat bad for activity because I have AP tests and finals.

[Meransiel]

Don't worry, apparently everybody forgot about this.

[Meransiel]

V/LA Until Friday, sorry

[scotmany12]

Finals week. Limited access until exams are done.