Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Lowell]

Usually I find "voting patterns" to be more noise than substance. Behavior at certain key moments is a better way to get information on scumteams, voting patterns usually just serve as a diversion. Hence my concern.

[PeregrineV]

@Lowell- I consider it just one tool, which has sometimes proved useful, and sometimes not. Hopefully it will provide something this time. If not, it was my wasted time- others can use other methods while I do this.

[PeregrineV]

Voting frequency table fixed.
Corrections made: Old table had duplicate Furcolow, and was missing ThAdmiral and smargaret. New table contains corrected Furcolow, and ThAdmiral and smargaret added in.

Player Voting	Beasts of the Sea
Player	Frequency
Amrun	47%
The Fonz	16%
smargaret	13%
PeregrineV	11%
No votes	8%
Furcolow	3%
Gonnano	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	EGL
Player	Frequency
PeregrineV	37%
ThAdmiral	31%
Amrun	15%
LlamaFluff	10%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	2%
Player Voting	Enigma
Player	Frequency
No votes	100%
*****	***
Player Voting	DavidParker
Player	Frequency
Amrun	19%
Scott Brosius	19%
The Fonz	15%
Furcolow	15%
No votes	13%
Gonnano	8%
bunnylover	4%
Feysal	2%
VP Baltar	2%
LynchMePls	2%
Player Voting	PeregrineV
Player	Frequency
The Fonz	50%
No votes	50%
*****	***
Player Voting	ThAdmiral
Player	Frequency
smargaret	16%
Amrun	13%
hohum	13%
Feysal	13%
No votes	11%
PeregrineV	8%
Gonnano	6%
The Fonz	5%
LlamaFluff	5%
Enigma	5%
bvoigt	5%
*****	***
Player Voting	Furcolow
Player	Frequency
Amrun	27%
No votes	15%
Enigma	13%
Gonnano	11%
smargaret	8%
The Fonz	6%
bunnylover	5%
Feysal	5%
VP Baltar	3%
PeregrineV	3%
Beasts of the Sea	2%
No lynch	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	Lowell
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	21%
The Fonz	21%
PeregrineV	15%
No votes	15%
hohum	10%
Amrun	8%
bunnylover	5%
smargaret	5%
Feysal	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	smargaret
Player	Frequency
Stephoscope	19%
ThAdmiral	13%
Amrun	11%
Furcolow	10%
Feysal	10%
The Fonz	6%
Gonnano	6%
Enigma	6%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	5%
hohum	3%
LynchMePls	3%
*****	***
Player Voting	bvoigt
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	31%
Amrun	26%
Stephoscope	10%
ThAdmiral	8%
Nachomamma8	6%
Feysal	6%
bunnylover	5%
PeregrineV	5%
Furcolow	2%
No vote	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	jmj3000-mothrax
Player	Frequency
No votes	68%
Amrun	26%
Furcolow	6%
Player Voting	The Fonz
Player	Frequency
Furcolow	68%
No votes	32%
*****	***
Player Voting	Sathoris
Player	Frequency
No votes	40%
Furcolow	35%
Amrun	13%
smargaret	6%
LynchMePls	5%

[Sotty7]

3rd vote count of day 5

smargaret - 1 -

The Fonz

Sathoris - 1 -

bvoigt

Enigma - 1-

Furcolow

PeregrineV - 1 -

smargaret

Not voting - 6 -

Enigma, Sathoris, PeregrineV, Beasts of the Sea, ThAdmiral, Lowell

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST

[ThAdmiral]

I'm currently deciding which of The Fonz or Enigma is the best lynch for today.

The Fonz - you willing to help me lynch Enigma today?

Enigma - you willing to help me lynch The Fonz today?

This sounds your just going to go for the lynch that's easiest.

@ThAd- Where did your list of Sathoris, Smarg , or Enigma come from?

I've changed my mind about bvoigt, and these are the only other people I think are scum.

PeregrineV's charts are bad. There's no analysis (this has been pointed out), and what's more, he only indicates scum and includes players currently living. Furc is on there twice, JMJ/Mothrax is on there but Fonz is listed separately, he doesn't list who's voted me, they're just bad. It's a transparent attempt to look like he's providing content.]

I think it's ridiculous that you're voting him for making some effort, and for having a few errors in the charts. He said he was going to comment on the findings at a later stage when he could.

Posting the raw data indicates a desire to be seen doing the analysis, rather than just doing the analysis. as in 'HAI GUYZ LOOK AT ALL THIS WORK I'M PUTTING IN, I COULDN'T POSSIBLY BE SCUM!' I've seen Adel blind towns with charts and statistics enough times as scum to be very wary of it. That said, the real acid test is if he comes up with something original or interesting as a result of this.

^^

Edit: I just realized I was feysalling...

vote: smargret

[bvoigt]

@ThAd: Why did you change your mind about me?

[ThAdmiral]

I can't remember. I think it was based on your interactions with flipped scum.

[The Fonz]

Hey Enigma, remembered your reasons for your suspicions yet? Decided which of the two is more voteworthy?

[Furcolow]

bvoigt is town

unvote;
vote: Sathoris

[Beasts of the Sea]

My spouse just came in and told me we were going to make a surprise trip to my in laws for the weekend. V/LA while I wish I was dead all weekend...

[bvoigt]

A couple of random questions: do you guys agree that Scott was probably an intentional crosskill? He didn't seem particularly pro-town, but I don't remember anyone finding him very scummy, either. And can you find any breadcrumbs from LMP? He definitely found DavidParker/Peregrine scummy, but I'm not sure if it was watcher results or just regular scumhunting.

[Sathoris]

Well poisoned was the Soviet scum telltale wasn't it. Intentional, I'm not so sure. Scott didn't appear that scum or townie. I think the last soviet scum took a shot in the dark and happen to hit a US mafia.

While typing this. Why are some people thinking it could be 8v2? We already have one vig odd night vig down so one even night vig left. One kill from the vig (removed from bunker) one kill from the soviet (Poisoned) and one from the US team (Assassinated)

VOTE: PeregrineV

How do you think we might be in a 8v2 situation unless you know something else?

[bvoigt]

Sathoris, if Steph was the last mafioso, I think he could kill someone and be killed in the same night.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

[Sathoris]

Oh right, the games I started mafia on didn't always allow kills when you got NK'ed

UNVOTE: Peregri

I'm usually in favor of massclaiming. If we're 8v2 then we should. If we're 6v1v3 it might be. Odds says we should so I'm in favor.

[ThAdmiral]

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

Based on the flips so far...possibly?

[ThAdmiral]

btw...

Lowell
Furcolow
BotS
Thad

voting bloc?

We really need to get our shit together.

[PeregrineV]

Well poisoned was the Soviet scum telltale wasn't it. Intentional, I'm not so sure. Scott didn't appear that scum or townie. I think the last soviet scum took a shot in the dark and happen to hit a US mafia.

While typing this. Why are some people thinking it could be 8v2? We already have one vig odd night vig down so one even night vig left. One kill from the vig (removed from bunker) one kill from the soviet (Poisoned) and one from the US team (Assassinated)

VOTE: PeregrineV

How do you think we might be in a 8v2 situation unless you know something else?

When I first read thorugh this I saw discussion on the possible kill flavors for each group. I don't remember what the final decision was. Can you tell me what post it was in, or what page or range of pages I might be able to find it?

And frankly, I have no idea what we are still facing. You seem pretty sure it's not 8v2. Can you please elaborate?

[PeregrineV]

And off-topic, but,

Happy Easter

eveybpdy!!

[smargaret]

Happy Easter (except, apparently, for BotS who got dragged to the in-laws - glad I dodged that bullet!) and consequently I'm

v/la this weekend

I should have said something earlier, but I had churchy stuff to deal with and it slipped my mind until now.

[Sotty7]

4th vote count of day 5

smargaret - 2 -

The Fonz, ThAdmiral

Sathoris - 2 -

bvoigt, Furcolow

PeregrineV - 1 -

smargaret

Not voting - 5 -

Enigma, Sathoris, PeregrineV, Beasts of the Sea, Lowell

• With
  10
  players alive, it takes
  6
  to lynch
  
• Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
  
• Prod check tomorrow

[bvoigt]

@PeregrineV: RedCoyote was "poisoned," and someone was "assassinated" on Night 3, when we presumably had no vig shot. So the vig flavor must be "removed from the bunker." Then you can figure out the remaining flavors from crosskills. "Poisoned" is Soviet, and "assassinated" is American.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

Actually, instead of a mass name claim, how about just nationality claims?

[Enigma]

Happy Easter!
Don't eat too much chocolate.

Enjoy visiting your in laws, I'll enjoy abusing my body with some booze ... after all this horrible work is done.

To think .. everyone enjoying a 4 day holiday ... and the poor people who work in hospitality ... who have to work for 4 days straight so all you slackers can enjoy your holidays.
Le sigh.

[Enigma]

Which means i forgot to say ..V/LA for this 5 day

weekend

work week.

[Enigma]

Ok I lied, I couldn't sleep too much coffee.
And now I actually read the last 30 pages again from end of D1, instead of a very quick skim.

Stuff I want to say:

DavidParker/PeregrineV
I've played with DP ALOT. I know his scum game, and every time it is bus bus bus. If you don't believe, have a look at all his games It's too obvious really.

Scott def scum, LMP probable-scum.

This caught my attention alot. But I looked at his ISO, his bussing is usually not subtle, so with a lack of it, it really leaves me wondering. I can also tell you this guy wasn't really into the game, and when he isn't, he just mindlessly bandwagons regardless of alignment, so it's null for him.

What else caught my attention you may ask me:

So, it's probably one American and one Soviet scumteam?

VOTE: gonnano

Ok, from here we see that he immediately comes to the conclusion of an American scum team? Why?? This is post 1192, early D2.
I also think his 1501 will be useful later, but I can't immediately arrive at any conclusion from that right yet.

Spoiler: Attached for you convenience

OK, I figured it was time to stop being lazy.

Town

Beasts of the Sea- I wish he would post more often, because they're good when he does.
Feysal- He provides good questioning and analysis.
DavidParker- He used the wording of his role PM to clear TheAd.
LynchMePls- See the reasons for Feysal.
ThAdmiral- See DP. Of course, I'd have to rethink if one of the two flipped scum.
Lowell- While he doesn't have a lot of content, he has made a few good posts, such as ISO #13.
XScorpion- His tunneling on Amrun doesn't look something scum would do.
Amrun- Between the claim and the reaction to my "hammer," I just don't think she's that likely to be scum anymore.
bvoigt- I know my play has been halfhearted lately, but I'm going to improve.
The Fonz- I like his catchup post so far.

Not Sure

InflatablePie
EGL
Artem- I was leaning town, but his replace-out post is weird.
Furcolow- Ugh.
Scott Brosius

Scum

smargaret- She goes after a lot of the easy candidates. For example, ISO #8 is a very nitpicky point, and ISO #13 basically just goes after a lurker because everyone else is. ISO #45 is also a nitpicky way to push what turned out to be a mislynch.
gonnano- Expect a good case in an upcoming post.
Stephoscope- It feels like he's skating by on the outskirts of the game, and not really doing much scumhunting of his own.
Nachomomma8- My head tells me that he actually appeared more pro-town in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, where he (as Calcifer) was scum. But my gut says he's scum in this game, too.
Sathrois- Like Steph, he's been skating by, although his play has improved lately. I also don't like his Furc vote in ISO #24; while self-voting is not good play, it's not a scumtell.

The context of his jump in 1582 after the VP case onto Amrum also strikes me as scummy.

Guaranteed, huh?

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

I'm also juggling the possibility if that one of smarg or bvoigt flips scum, the other is possibly a partner from:

Guaranteed, huh?

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

/end wall .. more to come

[Enigma]

Now after deciphering my writing and realizing I meant bvoigt was scummy we look at the next person on the player list after him.

Also, before I forget I just want to say. First I want to say screw you all for calling me scummy for saying 2 scum teams.
I have a feeling that there may be a third party, looking at the night actions, I'm definitely feeling a 3rd party, I was going to head with vig, but the combinations just don't cut for me. A complementary odd/even night isn't working. And two shot vig is out of the question, and you don't find any 3+ shot above.
So in my little caffeine induced headache, I have decided that one (or even both) scum teams tried to shoot this SK who obviously needs some sort of bulletproof with so many night kills around, so they know who the SK is and probably are hinting to get them lynched.
Something worthwhile to consider a few days down the track.
Also, the first person to suggest SK doesn't fit in the flavor will get stabbed in the eye with my blue pen, and the second can get stabbed in the other eye with my red pen.

The Fonz.
Well all I have to say is this guy posts way too many wall posts, and even after I commit myself to another read, walls are ghey and I skimmed most his posts. So I shall sit him in the null read of my players.
He also needs to put player names in his quotes so I know who he is referring to.
That is all on him.

Now we get Sathoris.
I have three RED marks next to his name, 852, 1352, 1432.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

I hate this jump on Amrum. I find it scummy. Also for giggles look at Artems 856 a bit further down. It's funny starting a counter wagon on a buddy with 4 days on the deadline and 13 required to lynch.

His 1352 eluding to a single scum team (and so many damn town reads) honestly awe me.
Let's play some easter egg hunter found in this spoiler here.

Spoiler:

I'm disliking the 'whatever' by furculow, that's two times now. I was a bit worried he might be a jester during the first day. And now he just makes it so easy for us to lynch him. He's making powers up then lying about it and not caring. I've just got a nasty feeling he's playing right into our hands and it's more beneficial for him.

UNVOTE: Furculow

For now, don't want to wagon him too quickly.

-Are jesters common in these sort of games?-

I saw LMP answer this already, but since I've played with Sathoris more, I'll add my own opinion. In the games I've played with Sathoris he has usually been quite aggressive, and the last time I noted him being cautious he was a cult leader. Those games were much faster than this one so it makes sense that his play would be somewhat different, but I do see cause for suspicion.

If Sathoris was used to faster games, I would think he'd be more likely to play the opposite of how he is right now...as in, be

more

active and aggressive than the typical MS player.

I am usually a lot more belligerent, as I said in my first post here. And yes I am used to 'shorter' games. These games however move a lot faster than the ones I'm used to. Over time I'll probably adapt and join the fast paced action. Right now I'm still finding it a bit hard to mingle in. I don't know any of you people's meta games, or anything for that matter. That said I have been in this game for over a month so I'll post my list of who I think are most likely town and scum.

Town

Feysal
nachomma8
InflatablePie
Bvoigt
Amrun
Scott Brosius
Xscorpion
Artem
Beasts of the Sea
Gonanno
ThAdmiral
LynchMePls
EGL
Smargaret
Mothrax
Lowell
Stephoscope
DavidParker
Furculow

Scum

Why are you waiting for an explanation? I've clearly stated I have no intention of giving one.

Then why did you go through the trouble of semi vouching for ThAd's role if you're not going to explain it and your nameclaim has nothing to do with ThAd's?

Vote: Furcolow

He's been the obvious lynch since the beginning of today.

Yet you hardly provide any reasons.

Does anyone have any possibly-valid reasons why Furcolow's not busted?

Why don't you look into your own vote on furc and provide us reasons why he is busted.

Re 1432. I forgot what it was I wanted to say. Just read it for your own interest.