Cowboy Bebop Remix [Endgame]

[Lady Lambdadelta]

"Rhinox is town."

Best reason ever.

I agree that he is town... Because you and AGM are scum.

But you're using PoE.

So tell me, how does one Town Read out weigh another?

Let me guess, that one is easier to lynch?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And again, I'm being draw into fights with you two.

No more of this. I am not trying to convince you. I'm trying to convince the town.

[AlmasterGM]

I like how AGM uses wifom as fact.

Also, just because you say something, doesn't make it inherently true,

Finally, I'm done talking to you. I will convince the TOWN of my innocence. Not you who would twist my words.

I'LL TAKE YOUR SURRENDER NOW, LLD.

[GreyICE]

"Rhinox is town."

Best reason ever.

I agree that he is town... Because you and AGM are scum.

But you're using PoE.

So tell me, how does one Town Read out weigh another?

Let me guess, that one is easier to lynch?

I'm scummy... because I've changed a day 1 read?

Why isn't GreyICE dead yet?

First off, because he's town.
Secondly, because there's quite a few scum on his wagon.
Thirdly, because besides Vi, I have yet to see someone post a half legitimate case.
So, convince me differently of 1, by doing 3, won't you kindly CES?

Oh fuck me.

@Kdub: You're good. I wanted to check something, and you're fine.

UNVOTE:

@Jahudo: FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU Why are you so terribad? HONESTLY? Like... gah! I have other ideas for who Vi's scum buddies are besides you... and you come in and ruin that with your posting. >.>

Scum List currently:
Toasty/Rhinox/Jahudo/CES
Rhinox doesn't get lynched today. He's 4th on the list really.
Jahudo and CES are high, but I'm wavering a bit.
VOTE: Toasty

Either changing reads is scummy, or it isn't. But don't give me shit about reads changing when this is the sort of flip flopping you've done to get to day 5.

[Kdub]

I'LL TAKE YOUR SURRENDER NOW, LLD.

Yeah, it's stuff like this that's making me uneasy. My brain is telling me that AGM is more likely to be town, but his attitude is giving me a bad vibe compared to LL. There is no sense of urgency, even though getting this wrong probably means losing the game.

[GreyICE]

Things that are getting to me.

1) No one suggested that the scum no killed last night if AGM was a town roleblocker to push him into this fight. Everyone like this 1v1 idea.
2) Kdub is waffling his way at LLD in the most scum-like manner possible.
3) Toasty and Rhinox are the only players that care about other people today.

[ToastyToast]

@GreyICE: I kinda suggested #1, but moreso for the position. Scum wouldn't have known who AGM would have targeted, but if they felt they were safe they could have purposely started the argument. However, that seems too far-fetched. Add that with the fact that my top scumspects are involved in this argument, and I think we have at least one scum.

Not sure what you mean about #3

[GreyICE]

@GreyICE: I kinda suggested #1, but moreso for the position. Scum wouldn't have known who AGM would have targeted, but if they felt they were safe they could have purposely started the argument. However, that seems too far-fetched. Add that with the fact that my top scumspects are involved in this argument, and I think we have at least one scum.

Not sure what you mean about #3

You are the only people doing anything to push at other people. Well Rhinox half heartedly, but at least the intent to ask the town questions was there. Kdub seems like he's sitting there waiting to toss his vote on one of the two wagons. I'm fucking tempted to just lynch HIM today for that. Like 'weee, lets see if (SCUMPARTNER) can pull this one off, but I'll hold my vote here.' Kdub, nice job erasing all the town cred from day 1 with turbolurking and about 4 posts today.

LLD is more or less just begging us for support and calling me scum.
AGM is in a tunnel, of course

[ToastyToast]

Ok. So 4/6 people are suspects. super.

In regards to the "GreyICE is 100% confirmed town!" issue,
1) They weren't masons. But did you guys have a QT? A question that I think should've been asked sooner
2) Its highly plausible that UK only had a fake claim revealed to her
3) If UK was 100% convinced that GreyICE was town, then she probably protected him. What this says, I'm not sure, for there is no way to tell whether she died protecting him or if the shot was direct.

Questions for LLD:

Shock and motherfucking awe.
Now here comes AGM!scum to say he RB'd someone, and get the mislynch.
No, fuck that. I'm tempted to just lynch AGM or Grey in the spot today, but I think a no lynch is what we need in mylo. And it is most CERTAINLY Mylo.

What wierd about this is that it came before AGM, almost as if you were completely ready for it. Did you expect them to go after you?
Do you still have Rhinox/Kdub as suspects? I find your "well, maybe its them. Or maybe its them. Or maybe its them" stances from Jahudo lynch-on to be odd. LIke, waiting for the most likely wagon and hopping on.

TBH, I'm really torn on this one. I think the following are the most likely (in order) scumteams:
GI-AGM
LLD-Rhinox
LLD-Kdub
Kdub-AGM

I still have a strong town read on him, but people are calling him scum on all ends :/. My gut is just too strong on him.
I don't like LLD's desperation today, nor do I like her "whatever, I don't have to prove myself to you" stuff; she says that she wants to convince town. Yet, most of what I need to process comes from the argument between my suspects.

Ugh, really torn. A lot of the posts I'm making are self-dialogue, but I keep goin' back and forth.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

To answer both your questions, I have known since the beginning of yesterday that GI was scum, and I had a feeling AGM was scum with him. (UT was a good match for him too.)

Later in the day, interactions between Grey and AGM + AGM's RB claim were enough to convince me 100%.

I knew AGM would pull this gambit. I saw it coming a mile away. The second that they mislynches CES, I knew it was their plan.

I'll note that I didn't even get a chance to put my two cents in on the CES wagon. And I'm pretty damn active. That's how fast CES got lynched.

No one else can be scum but AGM and GI. I refuse to believe it. AGM is confirmed to me, and GI is too much his buddy.

[GreyICE]

Wait so I'm scum because I've changed my read on kdub
But I'm scum because yesterday ended way too quickly.

Care to comment on the hammer and 'intent to hammer' posts from yesterday, LLD?

[Kdub]

2) Kdub is waffling his way at LLD in the most scum-like manner possible.

Well yeah, I'm waffling. This is a critical decision, and it's not immediately obvious what the right play is. I've tried to lay out my reasoning on both sides. I'm not sure why you are calling me out specifically, as nobody (yourself included) has taken a firm stance or put down a quick vote, and rightfully so.

I'm not going to make excuses for hammering CES, his claim was dubious as hell, even if it ended up being true, and it was pretty clear that there was nothing he was going to say that was going to convince me otherwise.

2) Its highly plausible that UK only had a fake claim revealed to her

Well, take a look at how it went down. UK made the "100% town" statement after Grey claimed Alisa. She was suspicious of Grey for a while, but seemed to know right away that he was telling the truth after he claimed. What type of info could her role PM have contained that would have both confirmed an Alisa claim as town and not been a lie from the mod? The only thing I can think of is something along the lines of "you know that Alisa is in the game and is aligned with the town." She couldn't even have had info like "

if

Alisa is in the game..." because that left open the possibility that Grey was lying, yet she was 100% sure about him immediately after his claim. I'm not seeing very many possibilities here.

I knew AGM would pull this gambit. I saw it coming a mile away. The second that they mislynches CES, I knew it was their plan.

What made you "know" that scum-AGM would do this instead of making the safer play of killing and trying to get someone lynched normally? Have you seen him do something similar before as scum?

[Rhinox]

So, 4 scenarios, which is more likely?

1)

Scum no killed to town-AGM would block a townie and initiate a 1v1 where both options = scum win.

- I didn't even consider this until the second time GI pointed this out. The first time he said it, I thought he was talking about scenario 2. I don't think this is very likely. There was a 33% chance assuming random that AGM would target 1 of the 2 scum anyways nullifying this scum gambit vs. a 16.7% chance that AGM would target the scum committing a kill if scum just went ahead and tried to kill.

The only way this even makes sense as a scenario is if GI is scum and another non-GI nk was performed, which would make us further question why GI has not been killed yet. But then as GI has pointed out, we're all ignoring this scenario, why would scum GI bring it to our attention? He wouldn't...

tl;dr: What this boils down to is that scum are twice as likely to get lynched by no killing if AGM is town vs. making a nk.

2)

Scum no killed and scum-AGM is setting up town-LLD for the mislynch

- possible, but... If we assume the alternative to this is making a kill, lets see how it works out.

a) Assuming no kill scum AGM, there is a 50% chance of lynching scum today and a 50% chance of lynching town for the scum win.
b) Assuming AGM is scum and scum kill normally, there would be only a 40% chance of lynching scum today, and a 60% chance of mislynching a townie (only takes 1 wrong vote).

Where this falls apart for me is that LLD is arguing that there is no risk in (a) because even if LLD is lynched, then GI can manipulate the town for a scum win tomorrow. But that is also true with (b) with a still alive GI. So the fact of the matter is that if scum is GI and AGM and they are working on the assumption that GI can win as lone scum, then there is absolutely no sense in taking the risk to swing for the fence with (a) when (b) is less risky and leads to the same outcome. Or more simply, there may be little risk with (a), but there is even less with (b).

There is also the consideration that, if scum wanted to pull this gambit, there was a better town target to pull it on: me. Assuming GI/AGM scum team as LLD is saying, Kdub and toasty would be easily convinced of me being scum. LLD probably would too. It wouldn't be a big surprise to anyone if I were scum. I'd have got steamrolled.

tl;dr: possible due to wifom, but not the most optimal scum play.

3)

Scum LLD tried to kill, but town AGM blocked her

- probable, because the least risky play for scum is to make a kill today, especially if its LLD/Kdub, maybe even LLD/Toasty. LLD/ICE not likely IMO. No reason to do anything other than make the kill and hope the 16.7% chance of AGM blocking the kill doesn't happen.

4)

both AGM and LLD are scum

- give up one of themselves for the exchange of making the other "confirmed town" and unlynchable in LyLo tomorrow. The fact that others have been quick to dismiss it as a possibility makes it plausible, but I forgot about their claim anti-synergy from mass claim. I guess they probably wouldn't have claimed roles like that during mass claim if they were both scum.

------------------------

What wierd about this is that it came before AGM, almost as if you were completely ready for it. Did you expect them to go after you?

This was actually one of my first thoughts as well, but I questioned the validity of the accusation. Reason is, both me and GI also saw what was coming (though not the target) and made a post that could have been interpretted the same way had GI claimed to block one of us. Only difference is, LLD did a lot of crazy things before AGM even showed up.

First, there is the noted hostility that really does make me think she knew she was the one blocked.

Then there was the "tempted to lynch AGM or GI on the spot" comment - why would she say that if she didn't know she was the one blocked. Certainly, if she were town, she would have considered the possibility that AGM blocked me, or kdub, and that the lynch would be AGM or [target which is not GI]. And then she would have spent some time considering, not immediately maintain her belief that AGM and GI is scum.

And finally, there is the no lynch suggestion. It doesn't take a genius to see why a no lynch only helps scum when its a 1v1 by eliminating a town voice on the conversation, which a no lynch would do. It would still be AGM vs. LLD tomorrow. But today, town has a 66% influence (4 out of 6) where as after a no lynch and a nk, town would have a smaller 60% influence (3 out of 5). It is possible that "NO LYNCH ITS MYLO" is a very deeply ingrained policy that nobody stops to consider if it really is the best thing to do anymore, but I just get the feeling from this game that LLD should have known better.

-----------------

Overall tl;dr

- right now, I'm leaning towards LLD scum.

[GreyICE]

So, 4 scenarios, which is more likely?

1)

Scum no killed to town-AGM would block a townie and initiate a 1v1 where both options = scum win.

- I didn't even consider this until the second time GI pointed this out. The first time he said it, I thought he was talking about scenario 2. I don't think this is very likely. There was a 33% chance assuming random that AGM would target 1 of the 2 scum anyways nullifying this scum gambit vs. a 16.7% chance that AGM would target the scum committing a kill if scum just went ahead and tried to kill.

The only way this even makes sense as a scenario is if GI is scum and another non-GI nk was performed, which would make us further question why GI has not been killed yet. But then as GI has pointed out, we're all ignoring this scenario, why would scum GI bring it to our attention? He wouldn't...

tl;dr: What this boils down to is that scum are twice as likely to get lynched by no killing if AGM is town vs. making a nk.

One is not random at all. First, there's 6 people in the game, so AGM has a 40% chance of targeting scum if he targets at random. Obviously he doesn't because scum can read his read list. If scum feel they have a high chance of not getting RBed, it's fairly good play not to submit the kill. So offhand, it's a 60% chance that you don't get hit anyway.

Second, if you do get tagged, AGM has to convince the town that he's town and you're scum. Call that 50/50, depending on which scum he hit and how the town feels. So overall, if it forces the town into a 1v1, it's a 20% chance of town even correctly lynching scum if we close our eyes to play and look at the math.

It's not a terrible idea for, say, a Rhinox-kdub scumteam or something, so I was surprised I was the ONLY person who even CONSIDERED it.

I agree though that LLD's reaction is WEIRD. No Lynch here is ridiculous.

Town-AGM, well, it's utterly consistent. He'd never consider it TBF.

[Rhinox]

^^^ from my POV, I'm not scum, and you wouldn't have been the one bringing it to our attention if you were scum, so I would have to believe the scum are kdub and toasty for this to be possible.

And if the scum are kdub and toasty, they weren't getting lynched today anyways even if they made a kill last night, therefore this strategy would be kinda pointless with the risk that AGM was twice as likely to target "1 OR the other" of them rather than just the one who submitted the kill.

Not to mention, I didn't see any other realistic RB target for a town RB AGM other than me or kdub, considering CES town and his vocal opinion of LLD town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Rhinox: The reason I was chosen as the target for this gambit is because I suspected them both yesterday hardcore.

If AGM had come out today and said "I RB'd Rhinox, He's scum!", I would have lynched AGM on the spot.

Well... I actually might have No Lynched.

But I would still be as certain of AGM scum as I am now.

The fact is that if they pull this gambit, whoever AGM lies about RBing is immediately able to confirm AGM as scum, and cross vote him.

If he tried doing it to you, he'd have two people against him and thus a much lower chance.

But look at the past few days. I've not been seen as town by any stretch of the imagination.

AND I've expressed massive suspicion on AGM.

SO, it reads perfectly that if AGM pulls this gambit, he targets me because:

1) I'm already a vote against him, so it doesn't hurt him to FURTHER confirm himself as scum to me
and
2) Because I am easily the most lynchable player in the game right now, due to my GreyICE suspicion yesterday.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, assume for a moment that I am scum... and that AGM is town RB.

What POSSIBLE motivation would I have for wanting to be the one to send the kill?

It was obvious that if AGM were town, he would RB me.

Why?

Because if he thought I was town, but I had suspicion on me, then it would be a good play for him to RB me, and

potentially

clear me of some NK suspicion.

So as scum, it makes NO sense for me to send the kill last night ANYWAY.

He keeps talking about me "falling into his trap". This is AGM's way of bulldozing me into the ground and claiming that it would be "obvious for me to send the kill because AGM called me town."

I've just shown why I would never send kill as scum, so that is refuted.

If you want a tl;dr list of why I would never send the kill as scum:

1) I am the most suspected player in the game.
2) If AGM was town and I was scum, I am his most likely RB target.
- If he thinks I am town, he will RB me to clear me of potential suspicion (or catch me as scum if he is wrong)
-If he thinks I am scum, he would RB me to try and stop the kill and confirm me as scum.

Thus, it would make

no sense

for me to send the kill last night.

And so AGM is lying through his teeth.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Which ever way you look at it, this much is true:

Regardless of alignment, there is no way AGM could have stopped a kill by RBing me last night.

Thus, he is lying.

Thus,

AGM is scum.

[GreyICE]

LOL, because you didn't submit a kill. But he hit scum anyway.

That's fucking hysterical.

[GreyICE]

I did the same thing when I said I would flip a coin and send BV310 a PM to jailkeep two different people based on the outcome of the coin flip.

And I did. I was a 1-shot jailkeeper though, so my PM just confused BV.

As they say, don't play a player

[Rhinox]

I don't follow what makes you a better RB choice than Me or Kdub assuming AGMtown. If I understand, you're saying you were the obvious RB choice, and thus would not have sent in the kill, and thus AGM is lying. I don't see that being the case.

I am and have been much more suspected and am much more lynchable than you. I don't see any way you can claim otherwise. Nearly everyone has been calling you town all game, and no one was clammoring to vote you despite your attack on GI yesterday. I will also point out that while you were messing around trying to lynch GI yesterday, I was the one who was actually voting AGM - why wouldn't AGM have assumed I would be a guaranteed vote on him as well/rather than you. Meanwhile, everyone alive right now has been ok with my lynch at one point or another, and the only player who currently thinks I'm townish is GI.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

LOL, because you didn't submit a kill. But he hit scum anyway.

That's fucking hysterical.

You're fucking retarded.

For someone who tells people to read, you seem to fail at doing just that.

The entire situation I provided was a hypothetical one, showing why his claim is ridiculous even from the other perspective.

[ToastyToast]

@LLD: Thats quite a lot WIFOM

@Rhinox: This whole "I'm not scum from my perspective, but it makes more sense for the gambit to be pulled on me" is the only thing thats keeping you from a town read.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I don't follow what makes you a better RB choice than Me or Kdub assuming AGMtown. If I understand, you're saying you were the obvious RB choice, and thus would not have sent in the kill, and thus AGM is lying. I don't see that being the case.

I am and have been much more suspected and am much more lynchable than you. I don't see any way you can claim otherwise. Nearly everyone has been calling you town all game, and no one was clammoring to vote you despite your attack on GI yesterday. I will also point out that while you were messing around trying to lynch GI yesterday, I was the one who was actually voting AGM - why wouldn't AGM have assumed I would be a guaranteed vote on him as well/rather than you. Meanwhile, everyone alive right now has been ok with my lynch at one point or another, and the only player who currently thinks I'm townish is GI.

I'm sorry?

GI just suggested that you and Kdub could be scum.

I'm saying that GI/AGM is the scum team. Confirmed.

That means you are town.

>.<

[GreyICE]

LOL, because you didn't submit a kill. But he hit scum anyway.

That's fucking hysterical.