Mini 1148 -- Spare Me Mafia (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

Possible V/LA: Thursday to Saturday this week

Not sure whether I'll have internet.

Noted

Further to this, I do have internet, though access isn't great. I'm pretty lost with some of the main players at the moment - too many people are just making no sense to me. I'm hoping some flips will help (or at least get some of them out of the game ).

One thing I'm happy about is that Klazam is on the block. He's done nothing much all day. He popped up just when chess claimed vig to say "chess looks town", when he just didn't and it was a convenient moment for scum to be doing that. That's nearly the only read he's given, except unexplained scumreads on the popular picks of Duplicity and Apok. He's scum trying to coast along. Don't spare him.

[Duplicity]

It's getting late here, but I'll be back on tomorrow with a full list of reads and reasons why.

This was four days ago.............

[Nachomamma8]

wait.
is lynch pool seriously
klazam + freewill + apok
right now?

[Freewill]

wait.
is lynch pool seriously
klazam + freewill + apok
right now?

Yeah. Plus fishy theoretically.

[Fate]

Yes Nacho, were living the dream baby!

[Freewill]

I know how you all hate thinking and all, but consider this:

If Fishy is scum and not actually lynch immune and we put 3 others up, then scum will get to choose who is saved. They'll pick fishy. Thus "confirming" him as what he said he was.

[Duplicity]

There would be no way that he would be able to anticipate that we would leave the maximum number of people unspared as he stated he didn't need to be spared and couldn't spare vote almost instaneously at day start. I do agree with your conclusion that he's mafia, but I do think he legitimatly doesn't need to be spared to live today.

[Freewill]

There would be no way that he would be able to anticipate that we would leave the maximum number of people unspared as he stated he didn't need to be spared and couldn't spare vote almost instaneously at day start. I do agree with your conclusion that he's mafia, but I do think he legitimatly doesn't need to be spared to live today.

wait what? If he's mafia, he's not lynch immune. Unless there's some hugely strange role lurking out there or mechanic thingy, it just doesn't make sense for him to be mafia. I guess it's possible he's a 1-shot version of that, but it still seems pretty broken to me.

As for anticipation of it, I'll have to check the sequence of events, but I assume scum got a chance to talk before the game.

[Duplicity]

If you're attempting to say that you believe he 'gambited', the risk vs reward in the scenario do not match up at all. To be perfectly honest I don't even understand how you could speculate or ponder over that. Risk: Assume that town do not put the maximum number of people on the block, he dies. Reward: Assume that town do put enough the maximum number of people on the block, he gets the ability to save himself which is just the equivolent to someone spare voting for him.

[Freewill]

If you're attempting to say that you believe he 'gambited', the risk vs reward in the scenario do not match up at all. To be perfectly honest I don't even understand how you could speculate or ponder over that. Risk: Assume that town do not put the maximum number of people on the block, he dies. Reward: Assume that town do put enough the maximum number of people on the block, he gets the ability to save himself which is just the equivolent to someone spare voting for him.

I'm not saying I believe it. I'd say there's a relatively small chance (I don't know, maybe 20%) that he did.

And you've overlooked the obvious reward: it nearly confirms him as town. Mafia wouldn't be given a power like unlynchable. It juts wouldn't make sense. Or maybe there's a reward in his role for having himself saved. It's not really worth hypothesizing what the reward would be as there are a dozen different possibilities, each unlikely but not outrageously so.

My only point is that the town should not assume fishy is confirmed town when he survives the lynch.

[Duplicity]

My only point is that the town should not assume fishy is confirmed town when he survives the lynch.

I assumed this was a given, and if you've read my posts you'd have noticed that. His role obviously has another side to it regardless of his allignment as a 'Can't vote, Don't need to be voted' is a useless role as town and as mafia. Speculation as to whethere his role is really town-sided or not can be left until a full-claim occurs or more information is attained in future days.

[Internet Stranger]

Unless he is an SK that dies if he is spared.

[Freewill]

Unless he is an SK that dies if he is spared.

Or SK that gets night kill immunity if he's spared. I mean, there are lots of things. But those still seem far less likely.

The reason that mine is somewhat more important is that as a town we have the ability to change it. We could simply spare him and see what happens. Or we could spare someone else and see if he dies if we're not lynching to the max. It doesn't need to be done today, but I suspect at some point it will need to be done.

[Apokalyptika]

I'm about 99% sure that Freewill is scum now, trying to make me look scummy by association. Also, I'm giddy with excitement waiting for Protoss; he'd better come up with some good stuff.

Klazam, if you want to live, maybe you should bring out that amazing list of reads, no?

[Umbrage]

Hmm. Why am I dying, again?

I can still spare you. Just unvote chesskid3.

[Freewill]

I'm about 99% sure that Freewill is scum now, trying to make me look scummy by association. Also, I'm giddy with excitement waiting for Protoss; he'd better come up with some good stuff.

Klazam, if you want to live, maybe you should bring out that amazing list of reads, no?

99%! That's pretty sure. So you're saying if someone came to you with the following deal, you'd take it:

You put in $100. Bookie puts in $2. If I'm scum, you get the $2. If I'm town, the bookie gets your $100.

[Fate]

You trying to scare him out of realizing you're scum with gambling metaphors?

LOL FREEWILL

LOL

[Umbrage]

You trying to scare him out of realizing you're scum with gambling metaphors?

LOL FREEWILL

LOL

Wow. I actually agree with a Fate post.

[Fate]

The air's much nicer out here than in your ass, huh Umbrage?

[Freewill]

You trying to scare him out of realizing you're scum with gambling metaphors?

LOL FREEWILL

LOL

Why should I care? Apok isn't changing his vote to me, he'd be incredibly dumb to do so.

But while we're shooting the shit waiting for the deadline, it's worth my time to point out how ridiculous a "99%" certainty is.

[Apokalyptika]

I'm about 99% sure that Freewill is scum now, trying to make me look scummy by association. Also, I'm giddy with excitement waiting for Protoss; he'd better come up with some good stuff.

Klazam, if you want to live, maybe you should bring out that amazing list of reads, no?

99%! That's pretty sure. So you're saying if someone came to you with the following deal, you'd take it:

You put in $100. Bookie puts in $2. If I'm scum, you get the $2. If I'm town, the bookie gets your $100.

If I were a gambling woman? Yes.

[Freewill]

Tell you what, Apok. If I'm town, I get to change your avatar to whatever I want at the end of the game. If I'm scum, I'll reveal who my main account is and you can change its avatar to whatever you want.

[Freewill]

(i reveal the main account at the end of the game and the avatar gets changed at the end of the game, obv.)

[Freewill]

actually... that seems kind of game breaky. So I'll withdraw it. Just know that 99% certainty does not exist in mafia.

[Fate]

Ooooh AVATAR BETS

Just another reason

Fate > Free Will


YOU LOSE