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Post #20 (isolation #3) » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 pm
Postby Mr Stoofer »
Turbovolver wrote:Oh, but there is. Let's bring up another of Stoofer's Laws, if I may:
In a C9 game, a townie lynch on day one will have both scum on the lynchwagon.
He brought it up in a game I was in with him, and if we believe his statistics it has like an 80% success rate (sample size: 8 or so). The reason I put it out there is to see if other people have found it to be true or untrue in their experience.
It is OK that I say this, right Mr. Stoofer? I mean it's already sort of public knowledge when you posted it up in our game. If not, sorry
Turbovolver is quite right, This ought to be Stoofer's 1st Law in fact, since I have been propounding this for some time.
Note it only applies to C9 games, and therefore wouldn't apply to the invitational.
Post
Post #26 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:27 pm
Postby Mr Stoofer »
If you exclude one game with a self-voter, its about 80% in finished games I've been in. I noticed that Newbie 182 was just lost by the town on day 3. If the town had applied the rule it would have won.
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Post #46 (isolation #7) » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:43 pm
Postby Mr Stoofer »
Norinel, the "rule" applies to all pro-town roles, not just townies. I think your stats nin psts 36 are limited to vanilla townies, which is not the intention.
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Post #71 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:34 pm
Postby Mr Stoofer »
bigAl wrote:With a great use of my precious free time, I have determined
Stoofer's Constant, K, to be equal to 155
, in the equation P = 1 - (K/(K+n)). (Using experimental data from the latest five pages of Mafia Discusion - I did not include any topics after Mr. Stoofer stated his second law, as it seemed biased. Then I fiddled around in excel for a while, trying to find a way to determine the probability. My probably incomprehencible excel file can be downloaded here: http://members.shaw.ca/abphillips/new_o ... toofsK.xls)
Time for an update on this, I think. What is Stoofer's Constant in respect of posts over the last 12 months? (i.e. since Thok's Corollory and mith's Observation started to have effect?)