Newbie 1082: No Country for Old Mafia - Game Over!

[-L-]

@[L], yeah, no one should be the cop here. If you don't think that there's a cop in the game do you think that no lynch makes sense now?

The good news is that we should have a fine shot at winning this game without the cop; we've certainly gained information of at least some sort for the mass claim. What are you thoughts on WingDamaged9001 and Misder being cleared at this point?

@WingDamaged9001, I can give you what I think about what he did, sure. Again, I can't say what he was thinking at any particular time as I'm not him, but I can give it some analysis if you think it would be useful. Let me look it over in isolation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

But just because I'm not the cop doesn't mean that there isn't one

But yes, continuing as though there were no cops would mean that lynching today is the best option. But I've lost confidence in my scumhunting skills after the Prosarus fiasco. Although I really like your style, Zorblag, I think Romanus/you are the most suspicious. I see your style of play as separate from your role - you play very well to explain to us newbs. You've been doing that very well so far - but while avoiding any talk directly about the game.

Please do explain your predecessors actions!

[crazypianist1116]

@zmuffinman:
We are at Mylo if Wing is doc. All scum have to do is kill wing during the night as he cannot protect himself. Zorblag basically summed up my stance pretty well. Yes I'll agree that it's a possibility, which is what you were trying to argue, just an extremely unlikely possibility.

@[L]
By PoE I think Zorblag and zmuffinman are scum as I have a town read on you. Your reads?

[Zorblag]

@zMuffinMan, I disagree that I'm overrating a potential cop claim in MyLo. It's still something that the scum team should be pretty worried about (and I say that as someone who's willing to pull things like roleblocking a partner at night just in case I get tracked or watched doing it (I was part of Chimaira in Hydra Mafia.)) A cop with results is something that you need to make specific plays to work around, usually involving direct confrontation, and it's rare to see a scum team that actually sets up situations where direct confrontation is more likely.

In this case in particular though, if there's either a cop or a doc then we've got WingDamage9001 (sorry that I've been putting an extra d in there up till now) as our doc. For the scum to gain anything on this gambit you're saying they might have pulled they had to get somewhat lucky with the claim order, they had to get a doc instead of a cop who had two nights to work and they had to have WingDamage9001 protect scum rather than town. It's not good scum play to expect that things are going to fall into place like that. It would also be entirely possible to get just about the same usefulness out of fake claims if they went for the kill in addition to the claim. Basically they'd be gambling on a doctor protecting scum night two for this to be the right move for them to make. I don't think that's likely to have been what they went with at all.

Another argument against the need to bother with a gambit is that I think there was a pretty clear favorite for the lynch heading into to day; Romanus (and now me.) The claim process has done nothing to get me out of the spotlight so if I'm scum there wasn't anything gained from it. If I'm town I don't know why scum would bother when they've got an easier path by killing someone else and getting my spot lynched today.

In the end though, if you want to try to make a case on Misder you're certainly welcome to put one out there. You're technically correct that he's not fully cleared. I suspect that we'll have much better places to look today than that but I won't object to someone looking closely that way as long as it doesn't detract from other scum hunting.

@WingDamage9001, so I agree with pretty much everything that Romanus put out there as IC advice. Pressure is good; warning what was going on with the RVS vote was fine, in general it is good to "stir the shit" as he says (I'd probably say aggressively push people) and I don't have any trouble with early wagons; as long as it's clear when the wagons hit and no one can use ignorance of the votes as an excuse for a hammer they're a good thing. Past that I think that he could have been putting more into digging at various players while he was about; that's how pressure actually accumulates and becomes meaningful and it's a shame he didn't do more of it. I would have left my vote on Misder when he hit L-1 despite the fact that this is a newbie game; I'm inclined to believe that getting used to how things normally go is more valuable than artificially making breathing room and at that point I don't think I would have had a great reason to think that Misder was town (which is what I'd want to take a vote off on day one.) I'm fine with not explaining why things have meaning right away. There are certainly times when it's useful to the town not to fully explain what you're thinking (a great example would be my push for the mass claim without fully explaining my reasoning.) In the case of his cjdrum vote it's possible that he was casting the vote just to make things happen and it's possible that he really didn't like what he was posting. I suspect that had Romanus not had RL come up that would have been made clear.

In the end, it looks like he didn't have a chance to post after day one in a meaningful way; I assume that's because things came up given that he got replaced. I don't think that he did anything overly scummy during his time here despite how other people have reacted to it. He was less active than would have been ideal and he got his day one vote wrong (and it looks like he would have gotten his first serious vote wrong as well given what's happened with the claims) but being wrong happens to town.

I can see why people don't love his behavior, especially in a newbie game though it's not stellar town play in any setting. On the other hand I don't think that he did anything overly scummy during his time here.

If there are particular issues that came up for him that you'd like me to address I can do that but that's my take on what you got from him in general. It's been a pretty fast game (and in particular we had a very fast day two) so that's probably concentrating opinions to some degree. Basically we probably want to see more from everyone in order to make more informed decisions at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@[L], yeah, there still could be a cop, but if there is then they're making a mistake by not claiming now and probably hurting the town's chances at this point. I hope that everyone in the game realizes that and as such I'm willing to work with the assumption that there isn't one. Also keep in mind that getting one read wrong doesn't mean that you'll be wrong consistently. Speaking from experience I can say that Prosaurus does have the ability to look scummy when he's town. We still need to be willing to make our best guesses and know that winning doesn't take being right all the time.

Also, you didn't give a position on how likely it is that WingDamage9001 and Misder are town. Please let us know what you're thinking now as well as briefly your reasons.

@crazypianist1116, the troublesome thing, as I've said, is that I'm inclined to agree with you about a town read on [L]. I need to go back and nail down what it is that's giving me that (though a lot of it is the strength of conviction on the Prosaurus case yesterday even though it ended up being wrong.) Could you do me a favor and make the strongest case you can for [L] being town? It should help me with my reads on both of you.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zMuffinMan]

We are at Mylo if Wing is doc. All scum have to do is kill wing during the night as he cannot protect himself.

Uh... Well that changes things a bit.

I didn't realise doctors couldn't protect themselves (I overlooked that part when I read the role description), and this means I'm going to have to re-evaluate my analysis of the game, since it was partially based on the doctor being able to protect himself.

[Zorblag]

OK, I've now looked over crazypianist1116 in isolation and I've got to say that if he's scum he's made a

huge

improvement to his scum game since Newbie Game 1064. Like I said before he's doing a great job of following up on what people are saying in the game in general without just sitting back and letting the town play and responding when he gets called up as an issue. The only real issue that I could come up with his play is that there really hasn't been any interaction of note with anyone but people we know are confirmed town at this point (well, and Misder who I'm working with an all but town place for and who he more responded to than suspected.) The trouble with that is that I don't overly fault either of the first two lynches we've had; both cjdrum and Prosaurus did look fairly suspicious when they got lynched.

@crazypianist1116, in addition to what you think makes [L] likely to be town (you don't seem to have mentioned it before now) I'd like to see what you think the scummiest parts of zMuffinMan's play have been so far. Is there any reason that you didn't have anything the least bit critical to say about him before today? You were clearly following the game fairly well and it's a bit surprising that you don't seem to have much at all on the record about either of those two players. For completeness, was there anything about WingDamage9001 that you didn't mention that you were aware of just so that I've got responses that I can compare. Pretend you don't know the claims for that one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, looking at [L]'s posts I've realized that I probably got the gender wrong there when using pronouns previously. Sorry about that. I also see that we've got a warning to zMuffinMan about playing the newbie card in Post 148 burried in the middle and without any pressure to go with it. Actually, it turns out there's really no pressure on either crazypianist1116 and zMuffinMan for all of day one; she did mention them and make the occaisonal comment to them but the attention was focused elsewhere. Day two we've mostly got an attack on Prosaurus which I'm inlclined to call a bit pro town. I don't hate the points but the bigger issue here is that if [L] was scum she would be making an attack she knew was false on day two. I think that suspicion could have gone other ways easily enough (it was a particularly short day but there was an easy case to make against my player slot that got completely ignored based on the emphasis she chose to put on Prosaurus) and I largely think that scum don't need to commit that heavily to a particular mislynch (especially when there's either one power role out there to find or there are zero or two and scum have to figure out which.)

The assumption that we probably have a cop (even basing play on the hope that we've got one) is a bit disconcerting. To be honest, if Misder came out with a cop claim now that didn't contain an innocent on [L] I'd take that as a pretty good sign that [L] was getting there with extra knowledge (i.e. a roleblocker setup in which one too few PRs claimed) but I don't expect that to happen. Barring that I'm inclined to write it off.

@[L], in addition to your thoughts on the degree to which WingDamage9001 and Misder are claimed I'd like to hear what you think the scummiest things both crazypianist1116 and zMuffinMan have done thus far. You do a lot of talk in your posts about getting a feel for what to expect from players which I like a lot; I tend to ask questions for the same reasons. Based on what you've seen what sort of players do you think that Misder and crazypianist1116 are and what do you expect from them?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zMuffinMan]

@Zorblag

The reason I disagree about cop claims at MyLo being a big threat to mafia is that I think mafia would have an advantage.

Firstly, I am only suggesting this possibility in the case that there are two goons, meaning Mafia know there is only a doctor or a cop, not both.

Now, the biggest problem town would have is questioning why no night kill occurred - there's a lot of WIFOM around this, but there'd still be confusion. After that, there's the believability of the claim. Then there's the problem of counter-claims. Then after all that, there's the problem of what the Cop findings actually are.

You said that mafia would have to lynch the cop or lose. This is wrong, unless the Cop has found both mafia. If the cop has found one, or none, then it's a case of either:

- Mafia lynched (if Cop found one), Cop dies that night, town have at most one confirmed townie the next day and it's still MyLo.
- Cop claims to have confirmed two townies still alive, but long story short, town have at most a 33% chance of winning in this case (not taking into account reads). If you don't follow this and need me to explain it further, I will, but there's a lot of possibilities around what happens here and I don't want to get into too much detail when it's largely irrelevant (because it hasn't happened in this game)
- Cop confirms one townie still alive, there's a 50/50 town mislynches, and if they don't, cop dies that night and it's 1 confirmed vs 3 unconfirmed, good for mafia
- Cop lynched day 3, town lose.

Because of the unlikelihood of a cop finding both mafia nights one and two (unless he picked up particularly scummy reads from them), I think you're overrating a cop claim at MyLo after no night kill.

Is there something I'm missing here?

In this case in particular though, if there's either a cop or a doc then we've got WingDamage9001 (sorry that I've been putting an extra d in there up till now) as our doc. For the scum to gain anything on this gambit you're saying they might have pulled

they had to get somewhat lucky with the claim order, they had to get a doc instead of a cop who had two nights to work and they had to have WingDamage9001 protect scum rather than town

. It's not good scum play to expect that things are going to fall into place like that. It would also be entirely possible to get just about the same usefulness out of fake claims if they went for the kill in addition to the claim. Basically they'd be gambling on a doctor protecting scum night two for this to be the right move for them to make. I don't think that's likely to have been what they went with at all.

I'll address the three bolded parts in order...

Firstly, Mafia should not have known there would be a mass claim. Other than a mass claim, I don't see what you mean by luck with claim order. Maybe I'm missing something.

The second part is based on your belief that there being a cop instead of a doctor is bad, I disagree with this for reasons stated above.

And finally, no, Wing didn't have to protect mafia, it would just work better if he did. They don't actually have anything to lose if a doctor (and no cop) is in the game and they choose not to night kill.

In the end though, if you want to try to make a case on Misder you're certainly welcome to put one out there. You're technically correct that he's not fully cleared. I suspect that we'll have much better places to look today than that but I won't object to someone looking closely that way as long as it doesn't detract from other scum hunting.

The reason I'm bringing up different possibilities is not because I think Misder is mafia. It's because I have a scummy read on crazypianist, and at the start of this day phase he seemed to be absolutely sure a kill was blocked and, after the claims, that Wing and Misder were "confirmed" town. I assumed a kill was blocked last night, but I found it especially weird that he seemed to know for sure. It looks like a scum slip, and he's started retracting it, telling us that he isn't 100% sure, he just thinks it's highly likely. You don't say something is confirmed just because you think it is highly likely.

[Zorblag]

@zMuffinMan, I think that we're going to disagree that mafia would have the advantage with a cop claim in MyLo but I largely think that doesn't matter from here on out and I'm not going to take up more game time talking about it beyond this post. It's a decent topic post game but for now it's actually the perceptions that people have of the advantage town or mafia would have that matter and I'd be pretty surprised if people in this game (or in general) thought that a cop claim in MyLo wouldn't worry scum because they might have tools to deal with it. As a quick argument that the actual cop should have the advantage of being believed in a mass claim situation I'll for now point out that an actual cop cant' be caught in a lie if they tell the truth. If scum need to claim first they can be caught in various situations that make a lie more likely to be exposed. Scum also tend not to go out of their way to set up a position in which they need to lie to get by.

As far as expecting a mass claim goes, the only real advantage that scum get from no killing comes in a claim situation. They would really need to be anticipating a mass claim if they went with a no kill. I have a lot of trouble envisioning a scum team sophisticated enough to push a no kill through that didn't also anticipate what they'd be doing with a claim and expecting it to happen.

Mafia that chose to no kill in a game where there might be a cop could be in a situation where they need to get the cop lynched or they die. They're fairly likely to be in a position where they need to get the cop lynched or lose one member. They might get lucky and have just one town investigation (though they'd still probably be better off trying to hit the cop with their night kill in that situation.) If they ended up in a position with a cop with 2 town investigations then they'd be looking at a 1/3 chance of losing assuming random lynches (2/3 chance of hitting scum the first day, 1/2 the second day and those get multipled for your final odds) but the lynches wouldn't be random and connections from the game before that should lower their odds significantly.

There's just no great reason for scum not to try to take out the power role if they've got the chance; they don't lose anything by doing it and they've got a good chance to mitigate potential damage for the future.

Since you're aware of the way basic probability works what would you say the chances are, at a guess, that we're talking about something that's actually come up here. I sort of expect you to be more interested in finding scum than defending this point just now if you're town.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@zMuffinMan, and as far as crazypianist1116's reaction goes, I don't find it particularly scummy. I came out of the claims thinking that we could probably count on both WingDamage9001 and Misder were town. I expect that less sophisticated players would be more likely to lean that way and without meaning to insult him at all I expect that crazypianist1116 would probably be willing to make the statements he has as town.

If you're getting your own reads that's fine. If you're presenting a case is there anything else that makes you worry about crazypianist1116 in particular?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zMuffinMan]

My reads are based on his input with, and reactions to, the lynches days one and two, as well how he has come across today. I read the game he was scum (if it's the one that I think Misder linked), and I don't see why you're getting a town read from him this game, based on meta from that game. But I wasn't participating in that game, so maybe that's why I see it differently. It should also be noted that you're obviously one of the two most likely players I think would be mafia with him, so I'm not really taking your "read" completely seriously.

If you want me to write up a full case on him, I'd be happy to do so in about 2 hours. I'm picking up my brother again today, will be back later.

In the mean time, if you get a chance to respond before I'm back, can you go into more detail about your town reads on him?

[zMuffinMan]

ebwop: when I say "more detail", I'm talking about what specifically he's saying that makes you think he's town.

be back later

[Zorblag]

Right, so looking through zMuffinMan's posts I find it particularly fascinating that neither crazypianist1116 nor [L] had anything to say about his take on Romanus's actions. It's not like there wasn't anything to say there and it went largely un-commented about. As far as the play itself goes there's a reluctance to change votes in the early game that I find more common in scum trying to seem consistent with their actions than I do town trying to figure out who's scum in a game. We've also got the same argument that Prosaurus is probably scum because he seemed certain of something that I'm seeing used against crazypianist1116 now; I think that in both cases he's taking statements and applying too much certainty without use of context; I don't think that either one was meant as an absolute but that's how they're being taken as far as I can tell.

After day one we get prodding of [L] based on his case on Prosaurus day two and then some complaints about crazypianist1116 for the reaction to the claims today. It's tough to make out which of those comes across as more sincere.

On the whole I like zMuffinMan's play less than either that of crazypianist1116 or [L]. If I were to vote right now he'd be my first choice fairly easily.

@zMuffinMan, I don't expect anyone to believe my reads just because I give them. That's why I provide reasoning for them. As far as the difference between crazypianist1116's behavior this game and his behavior in Newbie 1064 it's a matter of aggression. In that game he mostly sat on his haunches and reacted to what people said to him and asked him. He objected to cases that people raised against him and got reads based on that but did almost nothing to look at behavior outside himself after the first couple pages of the game. This game he's been much more proactive; it's not a sure sign that he's town but it's doing much more to help me get a read on him as well as others and that's pro-town behavior in and of itself. Like I said earlier, if he's scum this game he's doing a much better job of it than in that game; I've just got decide whether it's him learning or whether it's a good tell that he's town here.

I'd like to see what you disliked about crazypianist1116's reactions to the day one and two lynches as that doesn't seem to have come up at all before now. I'd love to see the strongest cases you have to give on either crazypianist1116 or [L] (hell, or my player slot for that matter) as up till now I don't see much suspicion cast at either of them and I'm interested in seeing if you still have the same issues you did before with what Romanus did. It seems to me that the reaction to the claim is a pretty small thing to latch onto given that you're willing to accept as wide ranging a scum strategy as plausible as you are. I'd like to see when exactly you decided that crazypianist1116 was in your top two (assuming I'm reading you right.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Misder]

@Zorblag at crazy I've read that game before this game started and I reread the game again- I think the games are so different- in the game that you link, he has been attacked while in this game the only pressure he's gotten is with me and Wing saying that he's scum admittedly without evidence. Also, if you look at that game, I would say that crazy's attack on h3llo shows that he will still be aggressive and its not only responses- I do also see similarities to the responding part of his scumplay- he only attacks ppl that already in question eg cjdrum/prosaurus- his analysis this game has been lackluster to say the least or more of an, I expected more for you type thing. I really don't see him stepping it up this game, but if you would like to point out something that I may have missed, I'd gladly take that into account.

So I was thinking whether or not we should no lynch today and here are my thoughts: so either way, its going to be mylo or lylo for however long this game goes, so if we lynch town ever, we lose. However, I'm thinking in terms of how easy it is for mafia to bandwagon in a 3v2 situation, so having a 4v2 situation might be better to lynch someone, esp, because we will get no info tomorrow night as mafia will kill wing. Or, we can discuss today who we lynch, and then tomorrow, no question asked, we lynch whoever we decide thereby avoiding the weakness of 3v2 but still have a tiny bit of confirmation after night 3.

edit before posting: so I didn't read any of the zorblag vs MuffinMan stuff above this post yet, and since I'm about to fall asleep, I'll see if my commentary is needed on that tomorrow.

[Zorblag]

@Misder, do you mean that you think crazypianist1116's games are

not

so different? I think you might have left a word out with your initial assessment. I do agree that he's been attacked much less here but I also think that he's been looking around at the play much more this game; it feels much more like he's looking at things that are happening rather than just reacting to what people bring to him. Again, that doesn't mean that he's town but if he isn't then he's hiding it much better.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zMuffinMan]

crazypianist day one:

I don't see anything about his play that looks particularly pro-town. He accused a few different people (Misder, Prosaurus, cjdrum), 2 who are now confirmed townies, and the other who is likely a townie, and he defended Romanus's motives on his behalf, which seemed odd. He votes Prosaurus, stating that Prosaurus was coming across as very scummy, then the next post he retracts it and says it looks more newb than scummy, and votes cjdrum instead, with very little reason (most of the post in which he voted cjdrum was him talking about how scummy Prosaurus was). He then asks whether cjdrum was softclaiming a PR by taking part of cjdrum's post out of context when what cjdrum said wasn't in any way related to claiming. He seems to be a lot more persistent in creating pressure on cjdrum and forcing a claim out of someone, and apparently doesn't get the same "newb" read on cjdrum he got from Prosaurus, which I find extremely hard to believe, considering the content of cjdrum's posts. A lot of inconsistency. Post-lynch, he gets pretty defensive when accused of not scumhunting.

Day two, I was very wary of what crazypianist was saying about Prosaurus. His "read" on Prosaurus went back to "scummy" from "newb" for no real reason - he just acknowledged that he shouldn't have changed his read. I think he was taking advantage of the fact that Prosaurus was an easy lynch target (like cjdrum day one), and there were already people who were questioning his motives. It didn't look like he was really hunting scum to me. Unfortunately the day ended early with an unexpected hammer, so there wasn't really much discussion. During twilight he made a remark about the premature lynch, and I could be reading too much into this again, but he seemed to know the lynch didn't favour town...

Oh boy! Another premature lynch! What did you think you'd accomplish with that, Wing?

Yes, I could be reading too much into this, but I see scolding someone for lynching a townie pretty much the same as complimenting a doctor for blocking a kill. It's scummy to me. I know he's talking about doing it prematurely, but I see it as him trying to shift suspicion away from himself.

Finally, we have today, which I've already gone over.

I don't like his play-style at all, I don't think it's pro-town and I think some of his recent posts were slips. If you're really reading it differently to me, then so be it, I can't change your mind if you're interpreting information differently due to meta knowledge you have on him. I think it's all too coincidental that he had a part in pushing two mislynches and I am reading some of the things he's been saying as slips. It's interesting to note that you seem to think that crazypianist is less scummy because he's not playing the same as in a game where he was scum and

lost

.

By the way, I missed this post earlier...

Since you're aware of the way basic probability works what would you say the chances are, at a guess, that we're talking about something that's actually come up here. I sort of expect you to be more interested in finding scum than defending this point just now if you're town.

I was defending the point strongly because it tied in with one of the reasons I'm suspicious of crazypianist today. crazypianist posted without even looking at possible alternatives. I don't like that. Even if they aren't as likely, they're still possible.

And yes, this particular part of my argument is similar to one particular part of my argument against Prosaurus. That is very perceptive of you, Zorblag.

[-L-]

I am a girl, just so you know.

@Zorblag on WingDamage: He does not ever appear to be scumhunting; he never felt suspicious about any one person to go and dig deeper on. He consistently said "still unsure on everyone", "no strong reads on anyone". He did express suspicion of me, but never asked me anything so I could respond. That bothers me, because that isn't like my style of play. When I find someone who seems guilty, I dig deeper in on that person until I'm satisfied. Looking at Wing's posts in ISO, he never does any digging, his posts are one or two lines each - filled with either scorn, votes, promises to post more [which never happened], and his Doctor claim.

It was at this point [the claim] that us newbs lost control of the game, and I honestly feel like we're being handled, and shown a certain way to think. You, Zorblag, came onto the scene and handily convinced us that Wing is telling the truth. Now, granted, a lot of his posts could be like a doctor keeping a low profile - but it is the lack of scumhunting that is sticking in my craw. Up until this point, I've been getting a town read on Wing, but it was just based on intuition. I never really looked at Wing because of this. Looking at him in ISO right now though, opens up possibilities that he's the real scum, at this point. I'm suspicious of you and Wing at this point in time.

I'm conflicted though, because the mafia failed or did not kill last night. If the scum were newbs, then we should believe they failed, because all newbs would attempt a kill. If they were experienced people, then we should believe they failed, or are running a gambit.

In the beginning I really focused on Misder for his apparent "knowledge" - but after I saw his massive scumhunting efforts on day 1, I was sure he was a townie. It seems as if his intuition is working the same as mine. That is why I unvoted him [unsuccessfully since it was post lynch!]. There is a major difference between Wingdamage and Misder or me, for instance.

Which brings me to another observation of WingDamage: I don't think he's the newb he portrays himself to be. Watch the diction in his writings:

Post 27:

Vote McGriddle

Told ya.

As for crazy's questions,
1. This is my second game here, and I have three games on another site.
2. I enjoy playing mafia because it is fun. Heh.

@[L] - My wings aren't the ones that are damaged...

But he says things like this, that sound experienced to me:

Post 140:

Well, nobody wants to get lynched. It's like saying "Oh, that person voted for someone. Scum vote for people."
Or even "That person was talking. Scum talk. That person must be scum."

I've been trying to keep up with the IC, and his reasons seemed good. And then he's been all... Mm.
So I've been lost - I've already been programmed to trust ICs, and everything threw me off and I've gone haywire. It's kind of hard to keep up with... What Romanus is being.

Lalala WIFOM lalala...

This post is exactly how I expect to see newb scum respond to strong pressure. I very much expect cj to flip scum at this point.

Unvote, vote cjdrum

This comment about "newb scum" strikes me as someone who is well versed in these games.

@Zorblag on MuffinMan: I find that he uses a lot of WIFOM, and obviously so. Whether he's using it to throw people off [as scum], or is really trying to gain understanding of certain mechanics is hard to tell. Looking at MuffinMan in ISO, I see a lot of scummy things from him.

Some things he says really bother me, like:

I was defending the point strongly because it tied in with one of the reasons I'm suspicious of crazypianist today. crazypianist posted without even looking at possible alternatives. I don't like that. Even if they aren't as likely, they're still possible.

And yes, this particular part of my argument is similar to one particular part of my argument against Prosaurus. That is very perceptive of you, Zorblag.

Defending at this point is not what a townie would be concerned with doing. It is almost as if he is deflecting to crazy.

And when he says "How perceptive of you, Zorblag", that sent chills down my spine. Intuition says he fails.

OK, I'm going to lay some thoughts out based on the claims that I've had a some time to think through.

First of all, the claims eliminate two setups. With no cop claim, there are only two possible setups left:

# 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies, or
# 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townie

I'll cover my thoughts on the second scenario first, since I think it is more likely.

Just speaking probability - I see many more possibilities than that. How does he settle on one as being more likely than the other one? Scummy.

As for crazy, I've never looked at him in depth because others set off my scumdar more than he. I'll post my thoughts on crazy later today when I have time.

Regarding Zorblag, I have a loud suspicion that I'm being gamed by him. It's as if he came into the game, declared a person innocent, took control - when his predecessor looked very scummy to most people [and to me, in hindsight].

Because I'm suspicious of Wing, Zorblag, and Muffin, I'll be placing my vote now.

I vote Muffin because his overall diction is not appealing to me.

Vote: zMuffinMan

[Fenchurch]

Third Vote Count of Day Three:

zMuffinMan - 1 ([L])

Not Voting: 5 (Misder, WingDamage9001, zMuffinMan, Zorblag, crazypianist1116)

With six alive, it will take four votes to lynch someone.

Deadline is: Monday, 25th April at 8:50 am GMT.

[zMuffinMan]

@L,

You have the uncanny ability to misinterpret, misunderstand or ignore the things I say.

Explain how it's even possible for Wing to be mafia, without using the so-called "WIFOM" in the post where I explain some different possible scenarios around the claims and lack of kill last night.

You've also attacked me for defending part of my argument -- What?

I can't understand what you mean when you say you see more possibilities than what I mentioned. There are only two possible scenarios, since we can pretty much confirm there is no Cop in the game, and if there is a Cop at this point, and he does claim later, he should be lynched immediately on the grounds of being a terrible player (and very, very untrustworthy).

Yes, I use WIFOM, as do several other players. For example, there are people claiming that mafia always kill in a newbie game. And Zorblag has used WIFOM a lot.... I mean, he is telling us it's less likely crazypianist is mafia because he's not playing the same as when he was scum in a game he got lynched day 2 and lost. That statement actually blows my mind. This game is doing my head in.

Interesting to note is that crazypianist appears to be buddying you, while accusing Zorblag and I of being the two mafia. Neither crazypianist or you have a case on me that doesn't revolve completely around what I've said today, which has apparently made me an easy target. Neither of you has even voted me, or accused me of being scummy, before today.

[crazypianist1116]

So what I'm going to do here is respond to zmuffinman's case on me before I start giving my cases for [L], zmuffinman, and WingDamage9001.
Post 315 is filled with blatant misrepresentations.

His opening paragraph is horrible. He says I voted for Prosaurus and then switched to cjdrum for little reason after seeing Prosaurus as newb and then further goes on to say that I was calling Prosaurus scum in the post where I voted cjdrum. This is completely ignoring cjdrum's posts. Cjdrum bandwagonned SO heavily. I originally thought the switch from Misder to Romanus was newb rather than scum (see post 112), but this changed after post 121. I explicitly said in 112 what Romanus was calling him out for and she refused to read. Further others had called her scummy. He was completely ignoring all of this. This looked more like newbscum rather than newbtown to me. As for the reason for suspecting a power claim, that's just what soft claims are, subtle. If he was going to cite later after claiming that 128 was his hint after claiming, then I wouldn't have bought it at all. At the end of day 1, I was trying to get cjdrum to actually accomplish something, rather than just giving unfounded accusations.

Post-lynch, he gets pretty defensive when accused of not scumhunting.

That's because it was a blatant lie.

The paragraph about day 2:

Day two, I was very wary of what crazypianist was saying about Prosaurus. His "read" on Prosaurus went back to "scummy" from "newb" for no real reason

HMMMMMMM WHAT DID PROSAURUS DO AT THE END OF DAY 1? OH THAT'S RIGHT! HE HAMMERED CJDRUM! Further if you go back and compare his hammer to the game in which he was hammered by Zorblag, it looked really really canned. I then went back to thinking newbscum rather than newbtown.

If you want to criticize me about attacking wing's hammer, go back and read wing day 2. Maybe you'll see why I said such things. He posted 5 times with barely any content whatsoever. His last post he comes in to hammer Prosaurus with only a short remark. Looks like bandwagonning to the extreme.

Horrible case is horrible.

[-L-]

@crazy: And your thoughts on the rest of us?

[crazypianist1116]

I'm getting there. I'll post later tonight.

[zMuffinMan]

His opening paragraph is horrible. He says I voted for Prosaurus and then switched to cjdrum for little reason after seeing Prosaurus as newb and then further goes on to say that I was calling Prosaurus scum in the post where I voted cjdrum. This is completely ignoring cjdrum's posts. Cjdrum bandwagonned SO heavily. I originally thought the switch from Misder to Romanus was newb rather than scum (see post 112), but this changed after post 121. I explicitly said in 112 what Romanus was calling him out for and she refused to read. Further others had called her scummy. He was completely ignoring all of this. This looked more like newbscum rather than newbtown to me. As for the reason for suspecting a power claim, that's just what soft claims are, subtle. If he was going to cite later after claiming that 128 was his hint after claiming, then I wouldn't have bought it at all. At the end of day 1, I was trying to get cjdrum to actually accomplish something, rather than just giving unfounded accusations.

cjdrum was bandwagoning, you thought Prosaurus was newb not scummy, so the reason you switched from Prosaurus was purely because cjdrum bandwagoned. Now considering the IC was advocating bandwagoning as a good thing and cjdrum was obviously not an experienced player, how could you even seriously fault that?

You claim you got a newbscum read off cjdrum but Prosaurus as newb(town) and scummy, just not newbscum?

He didn't even remotely softclaim. You took his post out of context.

That's because it was a blatant lie.

I don't see how you can call it a blatant lie, when in Misder's opinion, you weren't scumhunting...

HMMMMMMM WHAT DID PROSAURUS DO AT THE END OF DAY 1? OH THAT'S RIGHT! HE HAMMERED CJDRUM! Further if you go back and compare his hammer to the game in which he was hammered by Zorblag, it looked really really canned. I then went back to thinking newbscum rather than newbtown.

Yeah, but he hammered after a claim, and obviously felt cjdrum was scummy enough to hammer. I don't see how hammering at an appropriate time (even if early) changes someone from newb town to newb scum... He was hammering someone who claimed vanilla, even if he got his read wrong, it wasn't a bad hammer.

Considering he expressed his intent to hammer after a claim, you had the option of unvoting if you didn't want the lynch to go through, but you chose not to.

If you want to criticize me about attacking wing's hammer, go back and read wing day 2. Maybe you'll see why I said such things. He posted 5 times with barely any content whatsoever. His last post he comes in to hammer Prosaurus with only a short remark. Looks like bandwagonning to the extreme.

No, it looks like you were trying to make an easy target of him. Thinking about it from a logical perspective, he was either really bad scum or really confident town. To be honest, it's a play I'd expect from a doctor because it would pretty much guarantee scum don't want to night kill him, just because it makes him an easy target and I don't doubt you'd be calling for his lynch if he hadn't claimed doctor.

Horrible case is horrible.

As it is, your case on me is simply that I have suggested that the night activities weren't necessarily as black and white as a doctor blocking a night kill. And you supposedly have a town read on L. Strong case.

You can't really criticise bandwagoning when the whole game has been you looking for easy lynches, today being no exception. Maybe if you accuse me of using WIFOM some more, your case might be stronger.

[-L-]

Unvote

This has gotten heated.

[crazypianist1116]

Hey guys. I'm sorry I didn't get this out earlier. Fell asleep while typing it up >_>

cjdrum was bandwagoning, you thought Prosaurus was newb not scummy, so the reason you switched from Prosaurus was purely because cjdrum bandwagoned. Now considering the IC was advocating bandwagoning as a good thing and cjdrum was obviously not an experienced player, how could you even seriously fault that?

You claim you got a newbscum read off cjdrum but Prosaurus as newb(town) and scummy, just not newbscum?

There's a big difference between jumping on a bandwagon for no purpose and actually looking like you support what you're voting for.

He didn't even remotely softclaim. You took his post out of context.

I saw no reason for a vt to make such a quote.

That's because it was a blatant lie.

I don't see how you can call it a blatant lie, when in Misder's opinion, you weren't scumhunting...

Great and I can say gravity doesn't exist.

HMMMMMMM WHAT DID PROSAURUS DO AT THE END OF DAY 1? OH THAT'S RIGHT! HE HAMMERED CJDRUM! Further if you go back and compare his hammer to the game in which he was hammered by Zorblag, it looked really really canned. I then went back to thinking newbscum rather than newbtown.

Yeah, but he hammered after a claim, and obviously felt cjdrum was scummy enough to hammer. I don't see how hammering at an appropriate time (even if early) changes someone from newb town to newb scum... He was hammering someone who claimed vanilla, even if he got his read wrong, it wasn't a bad hammer.

Considering he expressed his intent to hammer after a claim, you had the option of unvoting if you didn't want the lynch to go through, but you chose not to.

Misrep misrep. I never said I didn't support the lynch. I said that Prosaurus' hammer looked so insincere. At the end of the day I was trying to get cjdrum to do actual scumhunting but it wasn't happening.

If you want to criticize me about attacking wing's hammer, go back and read wing day 2. Maybe you'll see why I said such things. He posted 5 times with barely any content whatsoever. His last post he comes in to hammer Prosaurus with only a short remark. Looks like bandwagonning to the extreme.

No, it looks like you were trying to make an easy target of him. Thinking about it from a logical perspective, he was either really bad scum or really confident town. To be honest, it's a play I'd expect from a doctor because it would pretty much guarantee scum don't want to night kill him, just because it makes him an easy target and I don't doubt you'd be calling for his lynch if he hadn't claimed doctor.

So you're saying I shouldn't have criticized him because I thought he was really bad scum?

Horrible case is horrible.

As it is, your case on me is simply that I have suggested that the night activities weren't necessarily as black and white as a doctor blocking a night kill. And you supposedly have a town read on L. Strong case.

You can't really criticise bandwagoning when the whole game has been you looking for easy lynches, today being no exception. Maybe if you accuse me of using WIFOM some more, your case might be stronger.

That's funny, because as far as I was concerned, I've been defending myself.

---

Rereading zMuffinMan is iso, I see a few interesting things. Day 1 was mainly just tunneling Romanus. While a few people jumped on to this wagon, he continued staying on throughout the day. I would have liked to see some opinions of other people. There was no comment while the cjdrum wagon happened.
Day two was completely attacking Prosaurus. I don't think this is as scummy as above given the length of day two (hell, I even did it too). I do however find the fact that he completely dropped the suspicion of Romanus a bit shady. Then again,

Romanus was my top suspect yesterday, but you have been setting off way too many alarms since the hammer.

However this statement contradicts the fact above that he was trying to defend Pro's hammer.

I can give my opinion of day three but I think most of it is already there. I just don't see why he wouldn't be pushing for a no lynch if he doesn't believe the claim. We could "verify" the claim, or at least the stance of another player and thus have a better chance at hitting scum.

I'll write up a few other things later as I have class in 10 minutes. I'm really sorry I didn't get this up last night.