Newbie 1082: No Country for Old Mafia - Game Over!

[crazypianist1116]

VT
Misder.

[crazypianist1116]

Oh excuse me.
Popcorn to Misder.

[Misder]

Vanilla Townie. Popcorn: [L]

[-L-]

Vanilla townie.

That's the end? /nom

[zMuffinMan]

So, 1 Doc claim and 5 VT claims.

I have some thoughts that I'll post soon, but I have to go pick up my 5-year-old brother from school and feed him, so expect something probably a couple hours from now.

[crazypianist1116]

Ok so there we have it. Wing's doc and Misder's confirmed. If anyone wants to give reasons to the contrary go ahead but I don't think it's possible/probable otherwise. We should no lynch today as there's no confirmed scum and only 2 confirmed town. Everyone should give any opinions they want to before we make the no lynch final.

[Misder]

@crazy Technically, I'm not confirmed. There still is the chance that scum did not send in a hit. However, I will give you that it is highly unlikely.

[Zorblag]

So it's late and mostly I'll want to get to things tomorrow (my reads, the reason for WingDamaged9001 as my preference for the first to claim and other content related things) but for now I can say that the reason for a no lynch today is largely gone but that we're in a better spot.

Assuming that the scum attempted to kill last night (and I pretty strongly expect that they did; I'll talk more about it tomorrow) we do have WingDamaged9001 as essentially confirmed town. We're in better shape now than we would have been with a no lynch followed by a WingDamaged9001 night kill tonight (which was probably a somewhat likely possibility.) The only reason that a no lynch would really make sense here is if we were going to eliminate potential mislynches with a night kill. We should no longer be in a spot where that's an issue.

We should most likely end up choosing between the four remaining players as the lynch for today; we'd almost certainly have the same choices tomorrow as well. If we go for the lynch today then we get more input from town without any extra risk. We can discuss the possibility of a no lynch now if people like but unless someone has a reason that it actually helps us here I'm opposed to it at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[crazypianist1116]

Hmmmm I suppose you're right. I was thinking that a nk would confirm the reads of today, but I don't really see scum making such a risky gambit.

Unvote

I'll discuss my opinions tomorrow as well.

[zMuffinMan]

OK, I'm going to lay some thoughts out based on the claims that I've had a some time to think through.

First of all, the claims eliminate two setups. With no cop claim, there are only two possible setups left:

# 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies, or
# 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townie

I'll cover my thoughts on the second scenario first, since I think it is more likely.

In this case, Wing would be Doc. Misder would be unconfirmed. I see no reason mafia would have had to submit a night kill last night. In fact, I think it would have been smart for mafia not to night kill. In this setup, there'd be 2 goons, so there could only be either a cop or a doc, not both. If there was a doc, and mafia chose not to night kill, there's a likelihood that town would assume the kill was blocked, and therefore assume that whoever was protected was town, regardless of their actual alignment. If there was a cop, and mafia chose not to night kill, the cop would be claiming during MyLo, and even if he found both mafia with his checks, the claim would be questionable, especially if there was a counter-claim from mafia (or if mafia claimed first).

Now for the second scenario: in this case Wing would be mafia. I see this as less likely, but still possible. In this setup, there would be a Roleblocker and a Goon, and they would know that there's either 7 vanilla townies or 1 cop, 1 doc and 5 vanilla townies. They might have gambled that it was the former, and chose not to submit a night kill based on the plan that one of them would come out as Doc today. The main benefit of this would be that one mafia would be "confirmed" as Doc, which would most likely lead to a win. Of course, if they were wrong about the setup, this would most likely completely backfire. But looking at the risk vs reward, if they felt there were no town power roles, this is something they might do.

I find it interesting that you're ruling out possibilities, crazypianist. Why is it confirmed both Wing and Misder are town-aligned?

I'll wait until both Zorblag and crazypianist have had a chance to post before I lay out some other thoughts I have about the lynch (or lack thereof) today.

[WingDamage9001]

I see a lot of WIFOM in that though. I would imagine that in a newbie game, the scum would always want to NK. It doesn't hurt that I already had a town read on Misder. Lol.

[crazypianist1116]

Wow I can't believe you made that post zmuffin. So much WIFOM. Regardless, if you can show me a game where scum don't choose to nightkill in a newbie game I might somewhat believe you, but you just earned major scum points. The chance of scum gambling like that is highly unlikely, as a counterclaim would automatically make one of the two scum.

If you actually believed your points, you'd be voting no lynch right now.

[Fenchurch]

Second Vote Count of Day Three:

No Lynch - 1 ([L])

Not Voting: 5 (Misder, WingDamage9001, zMuffinMan, Zorblag, crazypianist1116)

With six alive, it will take four votes to lynch someone.

Deadline is: Monday, 25th April at 8:50 am GMT.

[zMuffinMan]

@crazypianist,

Wow I can't believe you made that post zmuffin. So much WIFOM. Regardless, if you can show me a game where scum don't choose to nightkill in a newbie game I might somewhat believe you, but you just earned major scum points.

I don't see any WIFOM in my post, I am talking about possibilities that you're ignoring, I'm not saying any of that actually happened.

The point is, you're talking about two players being confirmed town. The question is, how do you know that? You subtly ignored my question.

You either know it from information you have, or you're actually making assumptions based on WIFOM....

If you actually believed your points, you'd be voting no lynch right now.

Well, actually, regardless of whether anything I said is what actually happened, I see no reason to push for no lynch even if something like that did happen. I see merit in lynching and merit in not lynching, but regardless, I don't have a reason to push for no lynch quickly.



@Wing

I'm not saying Misder isn't town, I'm just saying it's not confirmed. He's nowhere near my top suspect, but I just found it interesting that crazypianist has been telling us he's confirmed town. It looks like he's buddying because his night kill failed.


@Anyone,

By the way, if you actually have a reason other than "this is a newbie game", I'm interested in where anything I mentioned is flawed. The fact that I am thinking of it in a newbie game means it's a possibility that could occur in a newbie game, so don't give accuse me of using WIFOM while saying "it's a newbie game, it wouldn't happen".

[zMuffinMan]

ebwop: Any grammar mistakes are due to having just woke up. Meh. Gonna drink some coffee now.

[crazypianist1116]

The point is that what you said is so highly unlikely. What's the benefit of scum choosing to not kill? So they can enter a possible gambit situation like the one described above? It's not advantageous at all. If they kill, they more often then not get rid of another town player. There are very few situations where scum will choose to not kill at all, and this is certainly not one of them. It has nothing to do with the fact that this is a newbie game. If you want to play the whole know vs. think game then fine. Yes scum could have chosen to not kill. But it's extremely unlikely and I see no benefit whatsoever for scum to do it. As I said, give me an example of where in a similar position where scum has done such a thing and I'll accept your postulations as a possibility. But as far as I know, there is no advantage to scum not killing in this situation.

If you do not believe the claims are true, then you should be voting for no lynch as we can get more information from that since we're only in MyLo. But I believe Wing's claim. Misder's towniness follows from the fact that scum are going to kill town, and Wing protected the town person they were going to kill.

[-L-]

@xMuff: First off, the claims were mostly lies, because the scum didn't come out and admit they were scum. So I hope the cop did the same so they wouldn't be targeted. We don't have any way to even prove Wing is the Doc, because we don't know who was targeted last night. I don't believe the mass claim until we move forward, or see the scum slip up. I find your post trying to guess WIFOMy as well because of how your scenarios run.

Who do you think deserves lynching, then?

@crazy: A gambit that would be - totally agreed. But are the scum the newbies, or more experienced players? That is also WIFOMy.

Who do you believe deserves lynching, then?

@zorblag: Just trying to understand our position exactly. If we mislynch today, plus a night kill, that leaves us with 2 scum, 2 town. At that point it would take how many votes to lynch? 3? And so, if we mislynch at that point, we lose, right? But if we lynch scum today, plus a night kill, that will put us at 1 scum, 3 town. That's most certainly a win, because the cop can finish scanning! Right? [I really believe there is a cop, I'm not giving up hope~]

So isn't a No Lynch better since it will put us in a better position? Why are you against a no lynch?

[zMuffinMan]

@crazypianist,

I already outlined the benefits/advantages Mafia would have from night-killing, but I will go over it one more time.

Let's assume the more likely (less risky) scenario: that this game is 1 doc, 2 goons, 6 vanilla.

Goons know there is either a doctor or a cop in the game, not both.

If there was a cop, it would actually be MyLo today, and any claim by a cop would have to be taken with a grain of salt - and mafia could counter-claim or claim first if they felt necessary.

If there was a doctor, then the doctor would automatically assume that they protected the night kill, and like what has happened today, some people would assume that this means whoever he protected is a townie.

I'm not saying this is what happened. I'm discussing possibilities. And I could be way off. But I can see why not killing wouldn't be a bad idea. I asked you to tell me where you think my reasoning is flawed, and you haven't done so. The other setup I think is more far-fetched, but I can still see it happening, and if mafia pulled it off correctly, it would virtually guarantee a win because people would probably assume mafia wouldn't gamble like that.

You are telling me that there are no advantages to not night killing, when there clearly are. You're telling us that there are two confirmed townies, and there aren't. The thing is, I personally think that Wing and Misder are town, but I could be wrong. You act like you

know

they are definitely town.

I can't provide an example of a similar situation where no night kill has occurred. Asking me to do so is absurd, when I've never played before and have read a select few games, some with different setups to this. Does that mean it hasn't happened before? No. Does that mean it won't happen ever? No. Does that mean it isn't currently happening? No.

Why should I be voting no lynch if I believe something I said is true? We are not at MyLo if Wing is Doc. There are benefits to lynching, there are benefits to not lynching, but even if I truly did want no lynch, why would I push for it without letting people discuss their opinions on the game?


@L,

What? Why would a Cop lie in their claim? Any cop claim from this point onwards cannot, should not, be believed.

[Zorblag]

OK, let's start with what the claims give us as there's some questioning of it going on.

I think that there's a really good chance that a kill got blocked last night. Newbie game or not I have a lot of trouble believing that the scum team would choose to no kill while there was a potential cop in the game. Despite what zMuffinMan says it would be pretty deadly for the scum team to have a cop come out with a couple results against them; even one guilty would be more than they should want. I know that I'd consider no killing at certain points in newbie game (for example, that's exactly what I did in Newbie Game 749) but that was when I knew what the situation with the power roles was (we'd already killed our cop and I knew there wasn't a doc.)

This game has gone quickly enough that I don't think the scum team would have had a chance to get a good read that there weren't any cops in the game; I just don't think that any scum team, newbie game or otherwise, would gamble on a lack of cops in that sort of situation.

I'm particularly comfortable saying that WingDamaged9001 should be a doctor because the claim came first. If he was scum we'd have to be looking at a scum team with a goon and a roleblocker who chose not to kill and then were confident enough to claim with the first go in mass claim; it's a possibility but it's just so small that I'm willing to be wrong ignoring it if it happens to turn out to be what happened. It's slightly less clear that we should consider Misder cleared from the lack of night kill and the claim but I still think he's got a much better chance of being town than scum at this point based solely on the lack of night kill and claim.

I guess it's important to remember that WIFOM type situations don't mean that all the options are equally likely. It's possible that scum chose not to night kill just to set up this situation here. If that's true then they would have had to both be fairly sure there wasn't a cop (which I don't think they could) or be willing to allow the potential for more investigations (which I don't think they would) and they'd have to plan on someone pushing the mass claim like I did at the start of the day. I'm unlikely to have done that as scum both because I probably would have been better with the no lynch and because (as I was pretty sure would happen when I suggested it) the mass claim actually leaves me slightly more likely to get lynched today than I was before based on who we should be considered essentially cleared now. I haven't been in this game long enough for anyone to have had an idea that I might make that push based on previous play here and I don't think that crazypianist1116 (the one player with other experinece) would have been planning on me doing that. It's possible that I spoke up before scum had a chance but a no lynch largely throws away the potential gambit gains they might have had coming if it was a no kill last night and I didn't see any moves in that direction.

For those who care, I was actually hoping for a claim and a counter claim in the mass claim process. I don't know that it was particularly likely but it would have been about the best thing we could have gotten as it would have given us a clear choice for today between two players and then a decent chance of good information to work with for tomorrow if we made the right choice today (and actually it might have even been worth it to no lynch after the conter-claims depending on what they were.) As it was, this was more what I expected but I'm still happy enough with the results.

I chose WingDamage9001 to be the first to claim because I hadn't seen anything in my read through that made him jump out as town to me and I was pretty uncomfortable with his hammer to end the day yesterday. I also figured that of the players in the game he was the one most likely to make a rash claim as scum and be caught in a mistake. The fact that I think that contributes to the fact that I don't think there's much chance at all that scum chose to no kill if they've got a roleblocker; I just don't think that WingDamaged9001 would go in for that sort of play as a member of the scum team.

I didn't pick crazypianist1116 as my second choice (despite Misder's request) because I've actually got a bit of town read on him based on meta right now. It's possible that he's just learned from our last game together (Newbie Game 1064) but there's a pretty noticeable difference between his play here and his play there (where he was scum.) This game he seems much more interested in actually figuring out what people are up to; that game he was almost entirely reactive and it got him caught.

From my point of view, at this point it looks like it really should be 2 of the 3 of crazypianist1116, [L] and zMuffinMan as the scum team. Before the mass claim I actually would have said that both crazypianist1116 and [L] were probably town (crazypianist1116 for the reasons that I gave before and [L] because there was a pretty big commitment to what ended up being a mislynch on day two when he wasn't in any real danger of getting lynched himself which I typically take to be a bit of a town tell.) I had WingDamaged9001 as my prime suspect and needed to look at Misder and zMuffinMan again. At this point clearly I was either wrong about one of the town reads or the whole bit about the night kill and I think the town reads are the places it makes sense to look.

If I had to vote right now it'd be for zMuffinMan for those reasons as well as the fact that it really looks like he's trying to keep people from getting off the suspicion list which has a pretty clear scum motive. As it is I'm going to take some time to take a look at crazypianist1116, [L] and zMuffinMan again in isolation.

If anyone has any questions about what I've thought of particular things or would like me to take a look at anything in particular content-wise do let me know. I realize that I'm coming into to day as a top suspect based on what people thought of Romanus. I'm happy to give my take on his play if you'd like but as I don't know what he was thinking there's not much about it I can actually answer for.

@[L], I'm assuming that town didn't like at this point. If we've got a cop it's absolutely in their best interest to have claimed. If you're the cop I hope that you'll claim now so that we've got a fuller set of information to work with. The benefit of actually claiming today is that we're sure we get any information the power roles have and we don't have any chance of losing them tonight. We should have enough information from them based on the first two nights work to give ourselves a good shot of putting the whole thing together.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@zMuffinMan, you're giving ways that the scum could react to a cop claim if there was one but is there any reason that you think they'd be better off doing that then they would making the night kill and potentially taking out a cop and not having to deal with a situation where they need to get a particular lynch (the cop) or lose?

I certainly agree that the situation could be mitigated but I don't see why you think that the no kill would actually be beneficial here. As I said in my last post this looks like you're trying to justify not saying someone should be most likely town. Or are you just arguing against fully cleared as opposed to largely cleared? It could be the latter given your latest post where you give your thoughts so I suppose some clarification would be nice.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[-L-]

@Zorblag: I'm not the cop. :\

[WingDamage9001]

I really like Zorblag's play, but I'm not sure I can accept it considering the scum level of the player he's replacing. Zor - can you analyze or otherwise explain your predecessor's play?

[Zorblag]

@[L], yeah, no one should be the cop here. If you don't think that there's a cop in the game do you think that no lynch makes sense now?

The good news is that we should have a fine shot at winning this game without the cop; we've certainly gained information of at least some sort for the mass claim. What are you thoughts on WingDamaged9001 and Misder being cleared at this point?

@WingDamaged9001, I can give you what I think about what he did, sure. Again, I can't say what he was thinking at any particular time as I'm not him, but I can give it some analysis if you think it would be useful. Let me look it over in isolation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[zMuffinMan]

is there any reason that you think they'd be better off doing that then they would making the night kill and potentially taking out a cop and not having to deal with a situation where they need to get a particular lynch (the cop) or lose?

If I were mafia in a situation where I knew there was either a doctor or a cop with 3 vanilla townies dead at night 2, it's something I'd consider doing, precisely because I don't know whether there is a cop or a doctor. Speaking purely objectively, not taking into account any reads anyone might have got on anyone, there is a 50% chance that not night killing would mean a situation like today, and there is a 50% chance that there is a Cop, who would have to claim at MyLo. I think you're overrating a cop claim at MyLo.

Or are you just arguing against fully cleared as opposed to largely cleared?

I am arguing against fully cleared.

[WingDamage9001]

Zor - I think it would be extremely useful