Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[Amrun]

LOL, does being a jerk generally work well for you in mafia games?

I dunno, never tried it!

What you've seen vis-a-vis CES and me is a valid observation. We just got done playing a game together in which we nailed the last three scum in the last three lynches after being lynch-or-lose for a month. I have ideas about how to evaluate his alignment, and I imagine he ignores most of what I post and has ideas on how to read me.

@Amrun, how would you order {Truant/CES, nopoint, OGML/Apok} in order of most-to-least-scummiest, and why?

Also,

Oh, and I forgot to mention that MBL's "case" on Truant is conditional upon Merensial flipping scum -- which, if MBL and Truant/CES are scumbuddies, they know will not happen.

Got inside info that Meransiel's town?

Why would he ignore most of what you post...?

I don't think I buy that explanation. There's a definite connection between you two and Occam's razor tells me it's most likely because you're scum together.

As to the listing of scum, I haven't done a complete re-read of the game, which I want to, keeping in mind that mozamis is town.

HOWEVER, I'll do it, just keep in mind that the list is tentative, pending re-read:

Truant/CES, OGML/Apok, nopoint. Truant/CES for reasons outlined above, OGML/Apok for leading questions on mozamis and Merensial, nopoint for poorly constructed arguments.



As to your last question, of course not. My point was that if you and CES are the scumteam, Merensial is unlikely to be your third, precisely because of the post I quoted. I think you were planning to use the Merensial flip and other "evidence" to "clear" Truant / CES and turn around a scumread on him to a townread, thereby decreasing suspicion on you should he later flip scum. You could just go, "I should have trusted my gut impression from the beginning of the game! I second guessed myself."

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Meanwhile, CES has been buddying to MBL (imho) and definitely answering questions directed to MBL about MBL's intents in posts and things like that, which had already caught my eye.

How is this supposed to support MBL-CES exactly?

[Amrun]

Meanwhile, CES has been buddying to MBL (imho) and definitely answering questions directed to MBL about MBL's intents in posts and things like that, which had already caught my eye.

How is this supposed to support MBL-CES exactly?

You answering for him?

The way you answered, you were explaining MBL's "intents" in ways that made him appear BETTER, and not WORSE. Of course a scumbuddy wants his partner to appear better to the town.


VOTE: MrBuddylee

Will be willing to vote for him or CES. It doesn't really matter which one goes first, I suppose.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The question was about both. Buddying tends to be scum on town.

Do you think my explanations were accurate? Do you think MBL could've given those explanations himself? Do you think scum would tend to link themselves to their partner like that?

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, this is incorrect:

MBL's "case" on Truant is conditional upon Merensial flipping scum

My actual case(s):

* I found Truant's case on Meransiel weak (IIOA, rolefishing and defending an inactive scumbuddy (Magnetic/MBL)).
* I found Truant to be overly certain of his Meransiel case ("I don't know if this could get any easier.")
* I found Truant's case on me terrible and in ignorance of the facts
* I found Truant overly certain of his case on me ("100% certain of scumtell in this situation")

I said that IF Truant comes up scum or IF Meransiel comes up scum, then it is worth considering WHY Truant suddenly switched from one "certain" case to another. But my Truant case was not in any way conditional upon Meransiel flipping scum.

Your play is sloppy, Amrun. You notice some good things, but you need to be more rigorous in your analyses or you will be seen as scum omitting data selectively to help you push bad cases.

[MrBuddyLee]

There's a definite connection between you two and Occam's razor tells me it's most likely because you're scum together.

Is that mozamis defending merensial?
Yeah there's something going on there.
At least I think so.
mozamis and meransiel looking more linked by the post.

Might want to get a new razor.

[implosion]

Damn, 8 pages in the 4 days I've been away. OH JOY MORE REPLACEMENTS. This post is long, not necessarily required reading, just a catchup for 8 missed pages.

---

I'm sorry, but I still don't buy the case on MBL.

jeez cant people be more concise with their points? walls of texts are just a pain in the arse to read. as well as being good camaflage for scum (IWOA-is that the right buzzword?)

For the first time in this game, quite possibly, I agree with mozamis. Too many textwalls >_>.

Hence why, for the time being I am not going to say whe else I find suspicious, until we lynch Buddy. Unless he/someone else does a really good job of persuading me he is town.

bad.

@implosion, how is this:

Regarding pj's kill - I'm strongly against democratically deciding who it's used on, actually. Voicing opinions is perfectly fine, but petroleumjelly should have the final say in who is killed. It tells us more about his alignment if he's scum, and if he's town then we have a kill being directed by town. Democratic daykilling didn't really work in the only other game I've played with daykills (Cyclic experimentation) since they allowed the mafia to have too much control over the kill. I'm definitely for a kill on either mozamis or Meransiel, however.

any different from this:

I'm okay with Meransiel's plan of L-1 claims/dayvigging

if dayvigging is determined appropriate.

considering L-1 dayvigging is democratic and gives mafia significant control over the kill?

Bold in my second quoted post added for emphasis. People can voice opinions, but pj vigs only if pj determines that vigging is appropriate.

In Buddys above post, note how most of it is him listing other people's accusations of Meransial, and at the end of it saying "so yeah, Meransiel's done some scummy things".
Clearly, someone being attacked doesn't mean that someone is scummy.
So he still paints a vague picture of Mernasiel as scum, mainly it seems, based on other people attacking mernasiel as scum.
ps YES I AM DEFENDING MERANSIAL lol

I actually agreed with this until I read the post that MBL linked to, which explained his stance on Meransiel.

lol'd at 368-374.

Scot 381 = goodposting.

Amrun 385 is fairly good.

Amrun 397 is also goodposting.

@kunkstar and implosion:

You guys sound clever enough. Let's move forward to a post-mozamis world for a moment.

* If mozamis comes up town, who do you think is more likely to be scum?
* If mozamis comes up scum, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

Everyone else is welcome to respond as well.

Not sure. mozamis scum would

probably

make me think Meransiel more than right now based on the early game and their odd interactions with each other. mozamis town, really not sure. I honestly don't think a mozamis-town flip is all that informative, and I can't think of any immediate people that it would make me suspect. A mozamis-scum flip would be incredibly informative.

And Meransiel seems to think the opposite apparently. Care to explain why?

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping. And I'm not impressed with your whole "who else do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody.

This may be true, and MBL's post asking people about mozamis's flip does seem kind of odd to me, actually... at this point it's probable that mozamis is going to be killed (probably dayvigged) so I suppose it makes sense to ask for both scenarios while both are still applicable, but on the other hand I can see a definite possible scum motivation for that question - setting up mislynches, that is, being able to sheep on to whoever's opinion implies townies are mafia.

I like MBL's summary of nopoint, except for one thing -

Good distancing (from M&M) I must say. AND here we have our winning reciprocal distancing!

(guess, incorrect)

Why do you say that this is incorrect?

The rest of the case is actually fairly convincing, IMO... nopoint has basically been misrepping without evidence throughout the game.

nopoint 439 is terribad. He says that there were 3 people in between the posts... again, even after being corrected by MBL. Which CES catches in 442. The post itself is just bad too... he accuses MBL of lying and forging evidence, while MBL has explained how what nopoint is saying is inaccurate.

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu@moz flip.

pair speculation = bad. moz/Meransiel speculation was off, as it turns out - don't speculate about pairs until one member of the pair flips.

*caught up*

[implosion]

Oh, and VOTE: nopoint because I find MBL's case convincing. I also find it slightly odd that MBL isn't voting on it.

[Amrun]

The question was about both. Buddying tends to be scum on town.

Do you think my explanations were accurate? Do you think MBL could've given those explanations himself? Do you think scum would tend to link themselves to their partner like that?

Good point. If only one of you is scum, you're more likely to be it.

Unvote

VOTE: CES

In some cases, I think they were accurate, but you shouldn't be speaking for others. He definitely could have given those explanations himself.

And I think they do, sometimes, yes.



@MBL: Well, I seem to have misunderstood your point about Merensial, but that doesn't change my overall point about the link between you two. And the link between mozamis and Merensial was much more tenuous, and even so, being wrong once does not mean I will be wrong every time. That's poor logic.

[kunkstar7]

@kunkstar and implosion:

You guys sound clever enough. Let's move forward to a post-mozamis world for a moment.

* If mozamis comes up town, who do you think is more likely to be scum?
* If mozamis comes up scum, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

Everyone else is welcome to respond as well.

Noticed this being quoted on the last page and haven't seen the flip so I feel my answer is sufficiently pure (make of it what you will):
If mozamis flips scum I will have a solid scumread in OGML (or whoever replaced him) based off of his earlier connections to mozamis.
If mozamis comes up town, I don't think it points to anyone being more so scum due to the fact that she looks solidly scum individually, making a pretty easy bus for any partner.

[kunkstar7]

Vote: Amrun.

Explain this thought process:

*You state a connection between MBL and CES.
*You then go on to state your scumreads as Apok, CES, nopoint. Two of which come from cases made by MBL.
*You then proceed to argue with CES, but vote MBL, which although you mentioned a connection, never put in your scumlist. wha?

Why does CES's statement make you vote MBL? If you were going to vote MBL, why did you not do it with your earlier connection statements? Clearly if there was a strong enough connection to mention it, then he must have registered on your scumlist, BEFORE you decided to post one.

[Amrun]

No, that was NOT my scumlist. Re-read. MBL asked me to list those three particular people in order of scumminess, and I did so. That was not my overall scumlist but a direct response to MBL's question.


As the latter part, I wanted to see his reaction first. His reaction solidified my opinion.

Then I thought about it more and decided CES is scummier as a whole, whereas MBL's scumminess is partially dependent on CES being scum, so it makes much more sense to lynch CES first.

[kunkstar7]

No, that was NOT my scumlist. Re-read. MBL asked me to list those three particular people in order of scumminess, and I did so. That was not my overall scumlist but a direct response to MBL's question

Point rescinded, your wording in the response lead me to believe that was your own scumlistings before a reread, I did not think to read the quoted section clearly (This would also explain the correlation with MBL's major focuses >_>).

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL has been tunneling on mozamis and nopoint with a couple of scattered mentions of Truant.

By tunneling, I suppose you mean "voting someone else entirely all game".

Good distancing (from M&M) I must say. AND here we have our winning reciprocal distancing! (guess, incorrect)
Why do you say that this is incorrect?

I'm pretty sure nopoint was talking about me distancing from M&M in that segment. And I'm not distancing from anyone in this game--thus, incorrect.

Oh, and VOTE: nopoint because I find MBL's case convincing. I also find it slightly odd that MBL isn't voting on it.

I was uncertain about mozamis, and I'm uncertain about nopoint. "dumb, or scum?" is the indelicate way to put it. I typed up that case on nopoint, and a part of me said "he's trying, he's just locked on like an autistic pit bull". I read a few games of his play as scum and town, and this didn't look typical for him. I want to see more breadth from the guy--so much of his posting is anti-MBL, and I want to temper any OMGUS I feel rising in my throat.

[Amrun]

Tunneling was not a good word to use. I meant focusing your attention on.

[scotmany12]

Woah. Walls of text. Drunk post without reading page 20 and the last few posts of page 19. Not in the state to comprehend them.

Vote: nopointinactingup

The guy is scum. He continually ignores my request for him to point out where MBL lied. He has tunneled worst than me. He has focused his attack on MBL on flat out false information. I see no concern for the town from him. Absolutely none at all. If anyone wishes, I can give a more thought out case on him when I'm sober.

I still think mer could be scum. He is definitely up there on my choices of who we should lynch. But his recent contributions have a towny vibe to them. I could explain more needed on that.

There might be some questions posed to me that I missed. If you have asked me to respond to something, and I haven't at the moment. Please say so. I will do so shortly.

[Meransiel]

I find scot's points on actingup to be fairly valid, though his defensive stance on MBL does send quite a strange vibe...

Anyway, since I don't think of MBL as scum (mainly because I'm not seeing the inconsistencies and fluff other people are seeing in his posts, for some reason), and I don't consider myself capable on generating a (successful) wagon on my own, and those 2 seem to be the most popular choices right now, I will do this:

Vote: nopointinactingup

Mod, can you please count them?

@implosion's question: I did explain why I thought so. Anything unclear?

[MrBuddyLee]

Noticed this being quoted on the last page and haven't seen the flip so I feel my answer is sufficiently pure (make of it what you will)

This is probably one of those lame "gotcha!" questions, but I've gotta ask anyway. How did you know there was a flip if you haven't seen what it is?

"who else do you think is scum?" schtick

MBL's post asking people about mozamis's flip does seem kind of odd to me, actually... at this point it's probable that mozamis is going to be killed (probably dayvigged) so I suppose it makes sense to ask for both scenarios while both are still applicable, but on the other hand I can see a definite possible scum motivation for that question - setting up mislynches, that is, being able to sheep on to whoever's opinion implies townies are mafia.

A litter higher in your post, you said that if mozamis flips town, we won't have much information to work with. That was the eventuality I was concerned with, and thus wanted to get more people on the record about more people, just in case. Fortunately, it was a vig instead of a mislynch, so we have more time to get people on the record today, but do you really see "who else is scum besides #1 suspect?" being a question loaded with scum motivation? If sheeping was the purpose, couldn't I just sheep after they vote the mislynch instead of asking the question?

Also, who do you see as having sheeped on to others' mozamis suspicions as we're discussing here?

Tunneling was not a good word to use. I meant focusing your attention on.

mozamis was the top suspect of most people, and an obvious vig target. Doesn't it make sense to focus on him to try to determine his alignment? I tried getting better behavior from the guy back on March 22nd or so and you said:

coaching super-scummy mozamis doesn't help me get a townread on you

As for focusing on nopoint, here's a quote of mine from March 28th:

he could just be town sticking to a shallow case on me that's based only on my entrance into the game and not on my suspicions. He seems to have delved into my early posts in some level of detail, which is somewhat townish, but his base assumption, that I lied, is wrong. He sounds pretty positive that I am scum distancing from my scumpartners M&M. It doesn't sound entirely believable, but it's one possible interpretation of my play thus far.

Here are your three options:
1) I'm scum focusing on him because he's being an idiot and looks like an easy mislynch.
2) I'm scum, we're partners together, and this is brilliant distancing.
3) I'm town, and I'm trying to figure out what's up with this nutjob.

@Amrun: Do you think it's reasonable for me to "focus" a little on assessing nopoint, considering the vehemence of his attacks on me?


Finally, how can you say I've been taking it easy on Truant when this is your first read on Truant all game:

Truant/CogitoEroSum - Null, leaning scum.

I had a weak townread on Truant

, though I didn't agree with some of his logic. CES' posts just rubs me the wrong way.

[Meransiel]

MBL, hear me out a little. Amrun knew the chance mozamis would die today was astronomical. If he was scum,

he would know that saying "coaching super-scummy mozamis doesn't help me get a townread on you"

would land him in a VERY suspicious spot. I think that proves he is a town, somewhat.

The rest of your post, I agree with.

[kunkstar7]

Noticed this being quoted on the last page and haven't seen the flip so I feel my answer is sufficiently pure (make of it what you will)

This is probably one of those lame "gotcha!" questions, but I've gotta ask anyway. How did you know there was a flip if you haven't seen what it is?

PJ's dayvig was the last thing I read before I left so the mod had to put up a flip at some point if pj's kill was in fact real,and the thread topic title was changed.

MBL, hear me out a little. Amrun knew the chance mozamis would die today was astronomical. If he was scum, he would know that saying "coaching super-scummy mozamis doesn't help me get a townread on you" would land him in a VERY suspicious spot. I think that proves he is a town, somewhat.

This statement is pretty weak seeing that it is speculation on Amrun's thought process, essentially WIFOM. His alignment shouldn't dictate the meaning of his post, it should be the other way around. Because he posted "coaching super-scummy mozamis doesn't help me get a townread on you", it reflects scumminess from him as you say it would land him in a suspicious spot. Your position asserts some foreknowledge of Amrun's alignment.

[Meransiel]

No, it's actually nothing but common sense. If you are scum, thus, knowing who is innocent and who isn't, you don't go around accusing people of coaching "obvscums", especially since you KNOW said obscums are going to die and flip town.

Hence, I stand on my belief that Amrun is town. Do with that as you wish.

[Amrun]

Wow, MBL. That attack is poor.

I didn't have any problem with your focus on mozamis and nopoint -- UNTIL you said Truan/CES was scummier than them. Truant attacked you just as vehemently as those 2, yet you make a big case on nopoint while Truant/CES remains a higher scumread? THAT'4 what makes no sense to me and made me suspicious.

And what does it matter what I thought of Truant? This has nothing to do with my reads, only yours. I'm trying to evaluate the validity and cobsistency of your suspicions. For this, my reads on the people you suspect are irrelevant.

[MrBuddyLee]

I didn't have any problem with your focus on mozamis and nopoint -- UNTIL you said Truant/CES was scummier than them. Truant attacked you just as vehemently as those 2, yet you make a big case on nopoint while Truant/CES remains a higher scumread? THAT'4 what makes no sense to me and made me suspicious.

CES just replaced into the game. He's posted like seven times and I've asked him two questions thus far about his suspicions. I still suspect his player slot even though CES himself hasn't been scummy yet.

Your attacks are pretty shaky, Amrun. This one included. The CES-MBL "connection" causes you to say this:

VOTE: MrBuddylee

Will be willing to vote for him or CES. It doesn't really matter which one goes first, I suppose.

Which sounds like you're VERY sure both are scum. Or you're VERY reckless.

So, for starters, please point me to one CES post you disagree with thus far. Or better yet, give a full analysis of his posting thus far. I want to know if your vote for him is based on his play, or based entirely on the fact that he and I are cordial with one another. Can you make the big case on him that you're expecting I should have made?

[Amrun]

Bad attacks => target is town.

If I had to pick one CES post I disagreed with the most, it would be this. I think it happens quite often that town picks up things on scum but doesn't know how to articulate it; scum do this, too, but saying that if it's a bad attack the target is town is a complete fallacy.



But CES caught my eye ever since his very first post ... which was a vote with ZERO backing. Just a vote.

None of his votes have had backing, which is the main reason I had him at "null leaning scum" in the first place.


These things made me pay more attention to him, and after I decided to closely examine you two together, I noticed that his votes are actually just sheeps off of your posts, which strengthens the connection between you two in my mind. The trick of him not explaining, thereby not confirming that they are sheeps off of you, strengthens that as well.



The other post you pointed out, MBL, was a bit too reckless. That's why I changed my vote to CES, who is more likely to be scum overall, regardless of your alignment.

Let's say that CES is scum and that you are town, MBL. He could easily be town-buddying and relying on your lingering trust from the last game to get a townread from you. I can see that scenario.

After I re-evaluated from that perspective, I decided I definitely prefer a CES lynch.

@CES: Why did you vote for nopoint for your very first post in the game with no explanation? Why then switch to mozamis?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Bad attacks => target is town.

If I had to pick one CES post I disagreed with the most, it would be this. I think it happens quite often that town picks up things on scum but doesn't know how to articulate it; scum do this, too, but saying that if it's a bad attack the target is town is a complete fallacy.

Obviously bad attacks on both town and scum occur; I'm merely positing correlation. It just looks like a stronger claim because it has been stripped of its context.

The other post you pointed out, MBL, was a bit too reckless. That's why I changed my vote to CES, who is more likely to be scum overall, regardless of your alignment.

Let's say that CES is scum and that you are town, MBL. He could easily be town-buddying and relying on your lingering trust from the last game to get a townread from you. I can see that scenario.

After I re-evaluated from that perspective, I decided I definitely prefer a CES lynch.

I'm noting that you failed to mention that this re-evaluation was a result of my questioning.

@CES: Why did you vote for nopoint for your very first post in the game with no explanation? Why then switch to mozamis?

I thought nopoint was scum. I changed my mind as to who was scummier.