Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[mozamis]

I can't really a give an honest scum list at the moment. As i already said, no one else seems that summy so far.
Sorry about that.
Voting for me beacuse I don't want to post a scum list is hardly pro town btw.

[mozamis]

Probably gonna get hammered i guess. All I would ask is that people hold off for as long as possible. See how much patience Buddy has got

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not hammering you any time soon, mozamis. But there's no way you can persuade me (or anyone else) that you're town when your one and only suspect is MBLtown.

You locked in on me carelessly for the first sentence I posted, and then have expanded upon that with:

* flinging lots of accusations
* flailing
* not being as nice as I usually am when I'm town
* pointing out that you've been a rude d-bag in other games too
* lying
* walls of text
* drawing connections
* getting people to name their other suspects
* insinuating Meransiel is scum without voting for him
* sowing confusion and paranoia
* posting bullshit to cover for an early game mistake
* not answering other people's questions

If you're town, this is called using confirmation bias. You're sure I'm scum, so you're viewing each potential piece of evidence from that perspective and fitting it into that worldview. Believe it or not, I'm town, and all of those things you claim I'm doing for nefarious, scummy reasons, I've actually done to try to ferret out who the scum are. Take a moment and see if anything/everything makes sense from the opposite perspective. And if it does, consider trying a bit harder to find scummy things in other people's play.

Our job is to figure out why you aren't very good at scumhunting--is it because you're scum or because you're careless town?

[Darkstrike_11]

Voting for me beacuse I don't want to post a scum list is hardly pro town btw.

dude, its not a case of "not wanting to post a scumlist" its a case of; you aren't helping the town out by offering opinion and analysis. Even with the threat of a hammer you aren't helping! I don't want to lynch you (at the minute), but can't you see how you aren't helping the town?

[MrBuddyLee]

@Apok

What do you think of nopoint? Were his attacks/vote on MBL also "silly"?

What do you think of Tuncali?

[scotmany12]

@ Scotmany: re: MBL flailing around. It's just an impression thing. A few of his posts after his weird "joke" about his predecessor being scummy just looked like he was trying to come up with as many reasons as possible to cover his mistake.
Just check out his next few posts after his entrance and you'll see what I mean.

No. This is not sufficient. I am not going to go back and do your work for you. I want specific examples. Where did MBL flail around? No more telling me to go back and read his first few posts. You show me where he has flailed, with specific examples.

but also your lack of reads and commitment to them.
.

Yes I changed my mind. Baffles me why people think thats scummy.

It's not that you changed your mind. It's when you were pressured for you to explain your reads and statements, you avoided it for quite some time, and then when you did give a response, its that you don't believe it anymore.

Don't like Darkstrike's vote on Moz. Reasoning seems pretty weak. I get the impression that he doesn't actually think Moz is scum. Darkstike: why vote for someone you don't want lynched atm? If your vote is simply to pressure him into doing something, why tell him that?

[MrBuddyLee]

@kunkstar and implosion:

You guys sound clever enough. Let's move forward to a post-mozamis world for a moment.

* If mozamis comes up town, who do you think is more likely to be scum?
* If mozamis comes up scum, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

Everyone else is welcome to respond as well.

[Darkstrike_11]

Don't like Darkstrike's vote on Moz. Reasoning seems pretty weak. I get the impression that he doesn't actually think Moz is scum. Darkstike: why vote for someone you don't want lynched atm? If your vote is simply to pressure him into doing something, why tell him that?

Don't blame you. Yeah the intention was to pressure, but it clearly didn't work. I was hoping for some sort of reaction to being at -1, but none was forthcoming. Moz is doing nothing to hep himself, is annoying. You can usually rely on someone giving a panicked defence at -1 which will help explain their alignment, one way or another...

While you're here Scot, opinion on moz?

[Darkstrike_11]

oh and

unvote

no use for that now we have all deconstructed the actual risk to Moz. >_<

[Meransiel]

* If mozamis comes up town, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

If mozamis turns up town, I think I'm kinda fucked. Everybody would vote for me, so my opinion on the matter would be worthless, but whatever: I would vote for you, MBL. It is hard for me to perceive you as scum right now, I agree (what with your posts being coherent, pro-town and picturing pretty obvious scumhunting and logic that is not fallacious), but here's my problem: you're building cases on everyone, and drawing the connections back to me and moz (more me than moz, but whatever). I don't say that is wrong, actually, good job no matter your alignment. But this way, you can retreat to one of your other cases, would a mislynch happen (I can't say right now if you're working preemptively as a strategy, subconsciously, or not at all, but a moz town flip would clarify the matter a bit). And if you're scum, you know a mislynch will happen, so you do the exact opposite of tunneling (which is the main difference between you and...well, absolutely everybody else, honestly) to keep in fresh with suspects, and also make us suspect each other (which, as I have stated above, is a great strategy for either alignment, so I cannot tell until mozamis dies).

* If mozamis comes up scum, who do you think is more likely to be scum?

If mozamis turns up scum, I would have to go with scots. When most people were schooling moz and giving him some rest, scots was genuinely hunting him down (just like MBL, but, as stated above, MBL plays cleanly and consistent in general, so it doesn't apply) and reinstating the questions moz was ignoring, bringing up new accusations and such, which could either be scumhunting or faking scumhunting. This is either classical bussing, as if moz turns up scum, we would never think to connect the two of them (something scots is very clearly aware of), or a genuine attempt to kill scum. Again, we can't tell until moz flips.

So, yeah, I do believe that a moz flip is most urgent now (though I do believe a lot of people will comment on me changing my mind too often, but there's nothing I could do about it). I also believe that at least 1 scum is on his wagon (no matter his alignment), but we can work on that on day 2.


I hereby declare that I will hammer unless petro posts. No, I'm not joking.

[Meransiel]

Damn, he's at L-2 now? Nevermind the hammer then....

[mozamis]

Buddy-anyone who goes through a whole game of mafia without entering the world of confirmation bias is:
1) A genius.
2)A deity.
3) Scum.
Jury is still out on the first, I'm hoping for a good result with St. Peter, and I'm not the third.
I play a mean tamborine tho!

[petroleumjelly]

By the way, if anybody gets hammered before I can use my DayVig, you will earn my eternal wrath. In fact, I am going to go so far as to say: if you hammer before I DayVig, you get lynched (or DayVigged, if we're both still alive) on Day Two.

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping. And I'm not impressed with your whole "who

else

do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody. When (and if) I want to diversity my attacks on different players, I will. If I attack one player exclusively, it's because I find it the most enlightening at that point. The more I talk about everybody, the more my points are diluted and lost in the smoke of battle.

[mozamis]

@Scotmany: I've answered your question. Move on, nothing to see here.

[Meransiel]

By the way, if anybody gets hammered before I can use my DayVig, you will earn my eternal wrath. In fact, I am going to go so far as to say: if you hammer before I DayVig, you get lynched (or DayVigged, if we're both still alive) on Day Two.

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping. And I'm not impressed with your whole "who

else

do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody. When (and if) I want to diversity my attacks on different players, I will. If I attack one player exclusively, it's because I find it the most enlightening at that point. The more I talk about everybody, the more my points are diluted and lost in the smoke of battle.

Ah, great, just wanted you to post.

Now, it DOES seem far enough in the day for you to start giving hints at who you're gonna vig, no?

[petroleumjelly]

If I knew who I was going to Vig, I would just Vig them. So no; no hints.

And in fact, that is one reason why I do not think it is particularly good idea for me to list out everybody I am considering Vigging, because then the game will almost naturally start revolving around those players (much like how Kingmaker games have historically run). Better to keep the field open until I find it necessary to close it.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping.

Why are you telling me how to post? Everyone here is perfectly capable of reading that statement from their own perspective, just as we're capable of reading mozamis's intransigence and Meransiel's flightiness critically. I assume you didn't have a problem with the rest of the post, which was the relevant part. Mozamis is either town tunneling or lazy scum stuck to a single crappy case born of flapdoodle. And now that you're giving approval to tunneling D1 play, we're probably not going to get any more from him. Bravo.

And I'm not impressed with your whole "who

else

do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody. When (and if) I want to diversity my attacks on different players, I will. If I attack one player exclusively, it's because I find it the most enlightening at that point. The more I talk about everybody, the more my points are diluted and lost in the smoke of battle.

Ok, that's how you play. I play by getting people to make statements about townies and potential scumpartners that can be analyzed later. And I don't really care if I'm impressing you right now--you're a softclaimed vig who's spent eight days poking solely at a townie. In fact, you've only asked me one question in those eight days, while you've spent the rest of your time preaching about my poor play. Prior to that, you asked M&M a few questions on March 21st. Totally uninquisitive, while discouraging me from asking questions. Again, play the game how you like, but it's lame of you to criticize me for doing the questioning you're not doing.

You recently tried to get people to post more by threatening them with a vig. I'm getting people to post more by asking them specific, insightful questions about each other. I'm not sure why you have a problem with my technique when arguably it's going to deliver better information.

That's strike one and strike two, bucko. One more strike and you're outta here.

PJ, please explain why you haven't vigged mozamis yet when he's clearly hit strike 12. This is not trying to goad you into vigging him--it's me asking you what's changed since you made that post.

[mozamis]

Meransiel, when i flip town, why do you think you would be "kinds f***kd"? Sure you voted for me at one stage,but i dont see thats a big problem.

[mozamis]

By the way, if anybody gets hammered before I can use my DayVig, you will earn my eternal wrath. In fact, I am going to go so far as to say: if you hammer before I DayVig, you get lynched (or DayVigged, if we're both still alive) on Day Two.

MBL, quit your whole "I'm Town, I'm Town" in your posts. Not helping. And I'm not impressed with your whole "who

else

do you think is scum?" schtick you have going. I (and others) don't have to solve the entire game on Day One just to lynch somebody. When (and if) I want to diversity my attacks on different players, I will. If I attack one player exclusively, it's because I find it the most enlightening at that point. The more I talk about everybody, the more my points are diluted and lost in the smoke of battle.

GOD I WISHED I HAD SAID THAT

[mozamis]

Oh and to pre-empt the predictable criticism-no, I'm not suckin gup to PJ, its just the guy has an uncanny knack of articulating what i'm thinking.

[Meransiel]

Meransiel, when i flip town, why do you think you would be "kinds f***kd"? Sure you voted for me at one stage,but i dont see thats a big problem.

It's not me voting for you or anything like that, just...I'm the 2nd biggest suspect (1st for several people), and if your flip is not as informative as expected (and doesn't steer any reactions that could lead to something) then going for either the second biggest target or people that voted for you would be the most sensible thing to do for day 2 (I'd do it if I wasn't myself, naturally). Glad you're calm about it, though.

[mozamis]

Ah understand. But after my lynch, and night one, things might look a bit different (someone might have a PR or there might be an SK, or an interesting scum kill.
So I wouldnt worry too much.
Just vote for who you think is scum, and it will all be cool.
ps See you in the dead QT

[MrBuddyLee]

Let's review the evidence that nopoint has posted.

red

=guesses/unsupported/false evidence,

orange

= so-so accusation supportable by evidence,

green

= decent point supported by evidence:

(Evidence--quotes from nopoint--are inside the spoiler, for those who wish to ignore "walls-o-text", mod feel free to remove spoiler tag if you see fit.)

Spoiler:

1> He is lying.

(a guess, a stretch, and false)

2> It's a reliable scum-card.

(FAIL)

I also think the M&M are scummy buddies. Was gonna vote for meransiel had MBL didn't come in and be obv-scum. (

buddy accusation unevidenced

)

If his post history was what you looked into then why does he look like "obvious scum" and not "obvious cheater". (

missed the joke

)

(@Meransiel) I'm certain that I see your possible connection with moz. (

repeating buddy accusation, getting scummier

)

The only people I see saying their predecessor is scummy is scum. It's like saying "Hey guys, my predes was scummy as fuk, but don't chu worry Imma look as townish as possible". (

blatant misread--predecessor didn't post

)

Additionally, you apparently didn't even read that Magnetic never had 1 post. (

falsehood

)

Stop lying. You retract your statement apx 10 hours after you made your so called "gambit to see who's paying attention". If it was really a gambit, why would you reveal it right when only about 3 people have seen it. (

lie--5 of 11 active players had posted before I revealed the joke, possibly more had seen

)

tut tut over-elaborated excuses. (

guess, stretch, and incorrect

)

this kid is flapping his wings all over the places. (

misinterpretation, but meh

)

THINK, why the fuk would someone do a gambit like " Oh cool lol Imma lie to see if people pay attention or not". (

guess, incorrect

)

He was not joking. He said so himself. (

lie

)

My initial comment was essentially meant to pressure. (

Really? "he is lying" is pressure?

)

Good distancing (from M&M) I must say. AND here we have our winning reciprocal distancing! (

guess, incorrect

)

Lol Wut? Why the vote? ( Oh shit he's DayVig, get rid of him, GET RID OF HIM .. *subconciously votes* ... ) (

fair, but doesn't comment on Tuncali doing the same

)

he revealed his card when only 3 people have commented on his post, implying that is not his underlying purpose at all. (

repeated lie

)

@Meransial why do you now think I am scum?

well, tell me why you are suspicious of me

lol scum self awareness. There's no way a town be so self conscious as to act this kind of questions. You are caught scum mozamis.
ZOMG LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH this guy. There's no way a town can say this! That increase the probability that merensial is town tho.

Unvote.Vote:Mozamis

(

not seeing it, but whatever

)

PJ, please vig mozamis after his fake claim

so I can talk about how mozamis is MBL's partner in law. (

1-2 punch

)

Conclusion: nopoint claimed to have found three scum right off the bat. "All the Ms". Evidence:
for MBL is scum, he's relying 90% on "lied about entrance into the game" and 10% on "distancing from M&M". Mostly red(guesses, unsupported or false) evidence.
for Meransiel is scum, he relied 100% on association with mozamis. Recently implied possible change of heart on Meransiel.
for Mozamis is scum, he relied 80% on association with Meransiel, 20% on mozamis asking Meransiel why he suspected him, after Meransiel expressed willingness to unvote moz.

Basically, nopoint had a circular case going on M&M based entirely on their interactions. "You're scum because he's scum, because you're scum, because you're both scum." No pointing to specific evidence about either of their suspicions of other players. Thin. And now that nopoint reduced his suspicion of Meransiel, 80% of his case on mozamis is gone but he's sticking to it just as strong. nopoint's current case on mozamis is now "you asked Meransiel why he suspected you, and town would never ask that!"

nopoint's case on MBL is even worse. There are at least three lies by nopoint and five unsupported guesses, along with interpretations of "flailing" and "overelaboration" and accusations of distancing from M&M by making cases on them. He makes no comments on MBL's suspicions or quality of presented evidence other than to say accusations of mozamis and Meransiel are distancing.

Terrible play, or scum? I still think Apok/OGML is sketchy (weak, cliche suspicions, sounds a little like parroting) while nopoint looks more willfully ignorant of evidence and unidimensional. Mozamis could be scum, but nopoint's presented case is weaker than his degree of conviction. Just like it was for his weaker, false and incorrect MBL case.

[mozamis]

At least the main point people will go away with is "Moz amis could be scum....". Lol another classic Buddy post. Intelligent, awesomely presented and full of vague suspicions, and of course the inevitable pseudo-subliminal nonsense about "M+M".
A scum tour de force! Bravo

[MrBuddyLee]

I just accused nopoint of improperly tying "M&M" together, you dimwit.