Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

[Apokalyptika]

Hey guys.

Unvote

Rereading as we speak.

[Amrun]

A dayvig that screws with vote mechanics? Sound pretty hax if it's true.

Sorry for inactivity. Anniversary.

[Darkstrike_11]

Hey guys! I'm BlenBlen's replacement, gonna do a read and will make a cheeky post later today.

[Amrun]

Welcome to the replacements.

More suspicious of BlenBlen in particular because he dropped out after taking some heat. Is iffy, though.

[Shanba]

Truant has requested replacement and is being replaced. Have someone lined up, need to check if he's still up for it though.

Cogito Ergo Sum replaces Truant!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: nopoint

[MrBuddyLee]

it feels rather disjointed that you left your vote on OhGodMyLife after that post.

OGML expressed extreme enthusiasm for this game, and then took some heat from two players for what could best be called "inviting others to drum up suspicion on M&M without giving any analysis himself." And then OGML disappeared from the game. I didn't spot this before I made my long analysis post, but OGML made two posts in another game Wednesday and again Sunday, so clearly he replaced out of this game selectively. At this point, there are a few hypotheses you can choose between:

1) He's time-limited and chose to stick with the other game because it's further along and he likes it better.
2) He didn't like the heat he was getting in this game and thus replaced out.

(1) is less likely because he was "more excited for this game than I have been for pretty much any game in ever."
(2) is more likely. It's possible he replaced out as town because he was frustrated at drawing heat and didn't want to have to debate with me/others to prove his innocence.

Regardless, at the time I made the post you didn't like, PJ, OGML fit the mold of "scum hiding out in hopes that the other smoldering wagons will build before he has to answer tough questions". Regardless of M&M's alignment and possible protections between them and others, OGML is/was still an excellent vote and he is significantly likely scum for the two reasons outlined above. The fact that he was trying to get others to shovel suspicion on M&M means that if OGML is scum, at least one of M&M is probably town and the other very well may be. If one was scum with him, he might be more likely to post, as the scumteam would have less to lose from him pulling heat. That's all independent of THEIR play thus far.

In fact, your entire Post 188 seems to read, when boiled down, as: "Everybody who agrees with me is Town: high-five! Everybody who attacked me – mozamis, Truant, nopointinactingup, and Meransiel – is scum. And anybody who even suggests that any of those four are Town or fails to vote them (because they instead voted somebody else) are scum trying to protect their partner."

That's not at all true. My top four suspects, who I listed in a previous post, are Truant, OGML, mozamis and Meransiel. My OGML suspicions are actually the OPPOSITE of what you claim. I think he appears scummy for

attacking

M&M without reasons, not for defending them.

Nopoint clearly "protected" M&M by voting me for what you agree is a "terrible reason" when he thinks they're "obvious" scum. I don't think you disagree with that assessment. It's tough to say right now what nopoint is up to--he could just be town sticking to a shallow case on me that's based only on my entrance into the game and not on my suspicions. He seems to have delved into my early posts in some level of detail, which is somewhat townish, but his base assumption, that I lied, is wrong. He sounds pretty positive that I am scum distancing from my scumpartners M&M. It doesn't sound entirely believable, but it's one possible interpretation of my play thus far. Recently, he's changed his mind and decided that Meransiel is possibly town based on a mozamis post, and voted mozamis. My wagon was losing momentum at the time, and mozamis was taking heat, so I want to hear more from nopoint about his worldview right now. His play surrounding the leading wagons is opportunistic, and the vote on mozamis is for a weird reason and not the first one I'd pick as primary evidence. I don't have a firm read on this guy yet, so when you (PJ) say I'm calling him scum for attacking me, you're incorrect. I'm just pointing out his unusual play surrounding M&M, and myself, for future reference.

I said Truant is possible scum because he was VERY sure Meransiel was scum, but then switched his vote to me for what you once again call a bad reason, and expressed "100% confidence" in that bad reason. If Meransiel comes up scum, this is damning, because it means the Truant player slot used selective application of a scumtell to move his vote from Meransiel to lock it in "100%" on a townie. This is a reasonable connection to draw, once again for future reference.

mozamis refuses to answer simple questions like "what do you think of scotmany". He drew attention to ender's early vote on scotmany in an unusual post that looked like a possible sniff for a cop result. The conjunction of these two things makes my paranoid self wonder why mozamis is so sure scot is scum when he won't give us any supporting evidence. Thing is, I haven't seen scot's posts as terribly scummy, though I haven't done a careful read of the past few days I've missed, so this is just something to note for the future (and like the M&M situation below is unidirectional and doesn't necessarily mean much if moz flips scum). I made my post before you softclaimed, and said mozamis was unlikely scum with you because he didn't move his vote rapidly to me. mozamis is obviously connecting himself intentionally to Meransiel for no good reason I can tell. I don't see much town motivation for that, and it also doesn't make Meransiel scummier because it's the kind of thing scum in trouble could do to try to hitch themselves to a townie. tl;dr: if scot or Meransiel flip scum, moz looks bad for protection/buddying(Mer) and for certainty without evidence(scot)


I'll get to a Meransiel read in a moment, because you asked for it in detail and I'd like to reread to date before giving a detailed opinion.

It's also curious how the "protections" seem to revolve around the same players in the game. Your post almost comes to the point of just assuming mozamis and Meransiel are scum; and yet your vote is currently on OhGodMyLife for -- as far as I can tell -- pretty much focusing on mozamis and Meransiel and asking others to answer questions.

First off, I haven't reached firm conclusions on either, as should be obvious from the presence of my vote on OGML. You seem to be implying that I should have a consistent worldview on those three, but it's not really possible considering OGML's limited post history and the early state of the game.

Protections are vote switches or claims of suspicion without corresponding vote switches. (Or, I suppose, vocal defenses.) Obviously, that means that the only obvious protections we can guess at at this point will involve players currently being voted or under suspicion. You can interpret scot, implosion, kunkstar and BlenBlen as having protected me, but obviously I'm not going to delve into that because I'm town. None of their reasons for defending me looked overtly like scum sucking up, so I'm leaving it alone and even giving them minor points for not opportunistically hopping onto a growing townwagon. Most of the protections I discussed involved the decision to vote MBL or stick with an existing suspicion of mozamis/Meransiel, or switch between the two of them. That's about all we've had to work with, besides possibly selective omission, but I haven't looked for that yet. As I re-review the vote counts, the only other comment-worthy voting quirks involve BlenBlen, Truant and kunkstar moving their votes amongst each other. It's possible that one or more of the votes on Truant are votes on town protecting a M and/or M scumbag. Just things to note for the future, and as I see Truant as suspect and at least kunk's voting reason solid, I don't suspect that right now. BlenBlen is another story--his vote on Truant is without evidence.

You also did not seem to squeeze the same information from the same actions. You seem to either analyze votes as meaning "not scum with the player they are voting" sometimes, and "there is a connection between who this player is

not

voting" other times. On the whole, it looks like you are looking for "non-connections" for the players you are likely not going to attack (like me), and connections for players you

are

likely to attack.

If you really want to follow up on this after my above clarifications, please provide a couple of examples or omissions that rubbed you the wrong way. I thought my applications of protection theory were consistent and fairly thorough. And I don't think I'm weighing any of them heavily today in my decisions about who's scummy and who's not. Today is more about who's using available evidence and voting power like a townie. Future days, connections come into play, so I'm leaving a roadmap.

[MrBuddyLee]

ps. howdy, CES! And hello Apok and Darkstrike, thank you all for replacing in.

[mozamis]

Buddy, stop scattering your posts with"M and M". Stop trying to reinforce the factually non existent hypothesis that there is a connection between me and Meransial.
Still, I suppose its your job as scum to get town to think there are links where there are none, but you can do better than that, I'm sure

[MrBuddyLee]

Why have you been defending Meransiel to the point where he appears to be wary of you? Did you get an amazing townread off him or something?

Why are you so certain that scotmany is scum? Can you please show us the evidence you found to support your suspicion?

[scotmany12]

Moz: Respond to this in your next post.

Moz: Why did you just ignore both implosion and me asking you to point out where MBL is flailing around?

And I have a hard time believing you forgot those two questions. They were just repeated on the last page. So are you not reading the game? Even if you did forget, wouldn't you then go back and see what the questions were? Don't try to say you only thought one question was posed at you.

Respond to that. Now. Where is MBL flailing around? And respond to the latter part as well.

And respond to the questions other have been posing in your next post too.

I'll post more either tonight or tomorrow. Just a quick post now before I go to work.

[mozamis]

I'm no longer convinced Scot is scum. I'm pretty sure buddy is scum. And i think Mernasiel is town.

[Amrun]

But what made you have that read and then change it? What a copout.

[Darkstrike_11]

hey guys! So I read the thread, and I thought it would be fun to record my reactions to the game as I read it! its well interesting too cos you see how my reads change and stuff.

WALL OF WORDZ:


#7 Ok early on there was drama with Tuncali’s commenting on the RVS, I put that down not to scummyness but to new-ness.
#8 Scotmany12’s jumping on him could be worrying, unless he didn’t realise that there was more to Tuncali’s post than face value, in which case it is quite town-ish.
#10 Amrun’s jumping on the wagon initially piqued my suspicion, but since I have nothing against a cheeky early wagon to progress the game out of the hated RVS and into the serious stuff, it remains a neutral post in my eyes.
#14 Mozamis gave me early scum vibes with his assertion that the double vote was suspicious. He said this, yet didn’t vote on it, just placeheld. I dislike posts like this, they spread suspicion and paranoia, and are generally anti-town. Also I didn’t find Truant’s post at all suspicious. So an early scum read on Mozamis.
#15 Truant got really jumpy, really fast. Neutral read for starters. Raises his profile, and such offence at his vote? Both seem townish traits to me. We’ll see.
#18 hooray for questions! Early town read for PJ.
#23 I get an early scum vibe from OGML. He votes without explaining, gives a really quick answer to the question asked, doesn’t contribute at all apart from that.
#29 Amrun puts some good questions to Truant. They are from a “I wanna find out why you did this” perspective; this seems quite pro-town to me
#38 Scotmany12 again with a curious post. I agree with his point, lurkers are more likely to be scum, but it’s quite a low-key appearance in the game, kinda gives the impression of a post to appear active. Especially since he is accusing the lurkers of scumminess.
#39 Yeah Tuncali is town. Wayyyyy town.
#41 So far nothing to suspect Meransiel. Hasn’t looked like maliciously directing the action or anything, townie read.
#52 Meransiel must be an alt, surely.
#53 Ender posts without anything else. Eughhh
#55 I agree with my predecessor, Truant doesn’t look great with a quick copy-vote. Not enough to remove my town read on him though.
#58 mozamis assumes there are 2 scum. In a 13 player game? Perfect information=v. scummy.
#64 Again with a Scotmany12 quick post. However I agree with what he’s saying again. So neutral I guess…
#65 Meransiel has looked ok so far, but the whole “it’s a scum tell, but I don’t suspect it” reeks of laying down ideas, spreading confusion and suspicion, as well as buddying. Quite scummy.
#72 Scotmany putting his vote where his mouth is. Town read is now prevailing.
#74 OGML comes in with questions but no content. Scummy.
#79 lol code in a v/la message? I really hope Meransiel is being sarcastic here, otherwise its just plain dumb. (and a little scummy)
#80 Truant looking bad by trying to get people to swing to his vote.
#88 Scotmany= town
#93 I agree with my predecessor. I can’t see a huge amount to link Meransiel and Mozamis, apart from the fact that I have scum reads on the both of them.
#97 Moz and Mer almost team up in defence. Starting to see it now…
#102 Something I’ve noticed about Meransiel that interests me. From a logical perspective, he isn’t too great, making big deals out of little things, and getting the wrong ideas about stuff i.e. the whole code thing. Yet his knowledge of the game is good. Makes him difficult to read I.M.O. but im not gonna jump straight to scum for this guy. Not yet.
Oh but hey. Vote for Scotmany12? Really?
#103 Moz defends Mer. Odd choice, if they are being considered as scum together, makes no sense to openly defend him from Implosion.
#113 The wagon on Moz is made up entirely of people I have pro-town reads on. (apart from Mer)
#125 NPIAU comes in, nails my exact feelings about the whole game. Neutral. Lol.
#128 Meransiel is making some bad calls, but I don’t know what this says about alignment, possibly nothing…
#131 Wow. Truant will jump on anything! Sooooo suspicious, just looks like trying to get a wagon going.
#135 MrBuddyLee looks allright. More needed.
#140 OGML calls it so good with Mer being town, moz buddying. QFT.
#143 Mer is displaying classic townie being set upon symptoms. Massive town read.
#160 Moz doing absolutely nothing to help himself. “I might vote buddylee” for a silyl reason and just because everyone else is? Not buying it poppet.
#175 ohhhhh my days Mer is doing so much bad work. Lots of contradictions, and they are understandably getting picked at from PJ and MBL. Still don’t think it’s a scum read, just a misunderstood townie. I hope. Otherwise it’s a scum playing reeeeely badly.
#188 lol MBL does what I’m doing! Classic!
#191 PJ keeps up his pro town job he has been doing all game. Solid town read.
#192. WOAH. Im hoping for a jokey day vig claim?
#200 shit he’s being serious.
#205 Mer ad hom, stuff is getting nasty. Suspicious that he would get so upset at a day vig claim.
#210 I’m completely confused as to how to judge this PJs claim. Could be maverick scum, could be a townie gambit, could actually be a vig.
#215 Moz is just being plain anti-town here. Its annoying more than anything else.
#227 MBL brings up Moz’s history. Ah. That explains it. Guess its back to a neutral read for him then
#228 Awful tuncali vote
#246 Not sure how to read nopoint, he accuses a lot of people but doesn’t actually vote. Slight scum read
#261 Still really interested in Truant. He is giving me massive scum vibes.
#269 word brutha
#284 the game has kinda deteriorated here, with replacements, people not being around, Moz and mer continuing to play the same style.
#308 MBL vs Moz is boring, Moz is scummy, MBLs repeated attacks are boring.


as you can see, I got more bored/less was happening later on.

Basically I get massive scummy reads from Mozamis, from Truant and from Ohgodmylife (simply for inactivity and lack of pro-town effort)

I'm actually happy with where my vote is on Truant, he gives me massive scum vibes from his vote hopping and seeming desire to start wagons.

An important fact about me: I have never played a theme game before, and all the games I have previously played were fairly straight-forward set ups. Thus I'm a bit out of water with stuff like dayvig claims. The way I see it, I want to see the dayvig kill today, as it gives us more time to analyse before a mafia kill, and gives us SOMETHING to analyse (a flip and PJs possible motivations). Plus, when night comes PJ would be an obv kill. Also, this is all assuming that PJ is telling the truth (I tend to think he is simply because I get a pro-town read from him, and his claim timing makes no sense as scum)

I would be happy with a Moz day kill, but I also think that PJ should make up his own mind so we can analyse him after it happens

[petroleumjelly]

MrBuddyLee:

Your giant post essentially attacked people for "protecting" mozamis and Meransiel. Despite your assertion that this does mean M&M are scum, your post nevertheless points out how they protect each other, and you

constantly

insinuate they are scummy.

Example

: You accuse nopointinactingup of "protecting" mozamis/Meransiel because while he says they are "obvscum" on one hand, he is voting for you. But you are pretty much doing the exact same thing by voting for OhGodMyLife over mozamis / Meransiel, when your post bleeds "M&M are scum and their partner is protecting them." Yet if M&M are scum and their partners are protecting them, it seems rather preposterous to be voting for a player who is not protecting them.

Frankly, trying to say that "protections" don't necessitate scum while going through the trouble of pointing out four to five people who are "protecting" mozamis / Meransiel is just

not a credible response

; your post oozes with the presumption that M&M are scum and that their scumpartners are protecting them.

~

As a note, I also checked up on OhGodMyLife's posting, and although he did post in one game on Wednesday, it was also a single, and short, post. Contrast that with the past two weekends where he posted quite a bit. This just suggests to me that he just has more time on the weekends, and that he indeed found his other game, which has been running longer than this game, more pressing to post in. Nonetheless, he got a strike from me on principle in case he was partially ducking out, but I am not about to hang my hat on it when there is an equally (if not more) obvious and reasonable explanation.

[Amrun]

PJ, what about blenblen replacing out? I found that far more scummy.

[petroleumjelly]

PJ, what about blenblen replacing out? I found that far more scummy.

Post 290.

[MrBuddyLee]

Your giant post essentially attacked people for "protecting" mozamis and Meransiel. Despite your assertion that this does mean M&M are scum, your post nevertheless points out how they protect each other, and you

constantly

insinuate they are scummy.

My giant post contained three lines that talked about strange things Meransiel did. He voted me with a thin explanation, for a bad reason.. looked opportunistic. Since he was previously voting mozamis (or scotmany, depending on whether you look at votes or modcount) this is a mild possible protection of them. He stated unusual certainty that scotmany was scum but said he kept his vote on me because I'm the "easier lynch". And he stated that he "never thought scotmany could be town" which is probably bad English but kind of reads like he knows scotmany is scum. That's not

insinuating

that Meransiel is scummy.. that's pointing out very specific things that I think are either terrible play or scummy. And yes, I've drawn possible connections from other people, including mozamis, to this person who has done scummy things. That's how mafia is played, and I don't see why you have a problem with it.

Meanwhile, mozamis has consistently defended Meransiel. Some of it is somewhat reasonable (the poke at Truant, and semi- the poke at implosion) but it's seemed a little over the top. More importantly, mozamis has seemed net scummy, and I'm drawing possible connections between this possible scum and people who have adjusted their behavior surrounding him. Again, that's how mafia is played and I don't see why you have a problem with it.

You accuse nopointinactingup of "protecting" mozamis/Meransiel because while he says they are "obvscum" on one hand, he is voting for you. But you are pretty much doing the exact same thing by voting for OhGodMyLife over mozamis / Meransiel, when your post bleeds "M&M are scum and their partner is protecting them." Yet if M&M are scum and their partners are protecting them, it seems rather preposterous to be voting for a player who is not protecting them.

Do you think nopoint is voting me for a good reason? If not, then is it reasonable to wonder

why

he's voting me instead of the other people he claimed to find "scummy buddies"?

Your analogy stinks here unless you think my reason for voting OGML is as bad as nopoint's reason for voting me.

As a note, I also checked up on OhGodMyLife's posting, and although he did post in one game on Wednesday, it was also a single, and short, post. Contrast that with the past two weekends where he posted quite a bit. This just suggests to me that he just has more time on the weekends, and that he indeed found his other game, which has been running longer than this game, more pressing to post in. Nonetheless, he got a strike from me on principle in case he was partially ducking out, but I am not about to hang my hat on it when there is an equally (if not more) obvious and reasonable explanation.

Do you or do you not think OGML's post history was scummy? Particularly the post drawing the general connection between M&M without giving analysis of his own? It's

possible

it's a town post, but man, it reeks. Also, your analysis totally ignores the fact that OGML was incredibly juiced to play in this specific game.

Frankly, trying to say that "protections" don't necessitate scum while going through the trouble of pointing out four to five people who are "protecting" mozamis / Meransiel is just

not a credible response

; your post oozes with the presumption that M&M are scum and that their scumpartners are protecting them.

Bull. In a prior post, I listed the three-man scumteam I saw at the time, and it was OGML-mozamis-Truant. As a townie, it's my job to continue to look at everyone else until they're cleared, with more focus on the people I find scummier. Right now, and at the time of my post, I saw a hazy cloud of scumminess surrounding {Truant, mozamis, OGML, Meransiel} with nopoint flitting around the edges of the cloud and scotmany being pulled towards the cloud more by other people's posts than by his own. I reserve the right to draw hypothetical connections aloud in hopes that whether I'm dead or alive later, those connections (or non-connections) can be used to implicate (or exonerate) scum (and town).



Your take on my post(s) doesn't make a lot of sense. You seem to be implying that I have a firm opinion of Meransiel, which I don't, and I don't think my posts show evidence that I do have a firm opinion that he's scum. You seem to be saying that I should have a firmer worldview, and not make as much noise about people if the evidence contradicts or is not consistent. Or something like that. That if I'm not pretty sure Meransiel is scum, that I shouldn't be drawing possible connections between him and other people. Sorry, that's not how I play. I find evidence, try to present it honestly and relatively unbiased, and some of it turns out to be useless later. What's the harm in what I'm doing if Meransiel or mozamis come up town later? Like I said, I'm not using these connections as primary evidence of their possible guilt (unless the connection involves something inherently scummy, like clearing/suspecting someone for no reason/bad reasons), and I'd be surprised if you can find an example to the contrary.


Please assume for a moment that I am town and explain to me why my play, or specifically that post, is not good town play. I'm not seeing it.

[Amrun]

Pj: Yes, but didn't you say just now that OGML's flaking was likely not scummy? I was asking if BlenBlen's replacement was still scummy to you and if so, why. I assumed you dug deeper into them both?

[petroleumjelly]

Sorry, but no. I don't want to exchange walls of text. My point is that your post in the whole reads as "Meransiel and mozamis are scummy, and therefore so is everybody who protects them." You also attack every single person who attacked you. And then you vote OhGodMyLife, who was (i) not attacking you, and (ii) not protecting mozamis and Meransiel. Your OhGodMyLife vote feels disjointed, and your recent posts have not convinced me otherwise.

And as it should be clear, I try to read

every

post to see if I think they are written by town or scum. I think your post was a pretty bad attempt at subtly pushing the game to focus on M&M while you voted OhGodMyLife (for doing the exact same thing, except he was not being subtle about it.)

~

PPE: BlenBlen looks liked he just plain flaked from the site after being lynched in his Newbie Game. So no, I don't particularly find him replacing out as particularly scummy, or "scummier" than OhGodMyLife for flaking.

[mozamis]

But what made you have that read and then change it? What a copout.

Maybe. But, be fair amrun-haven't seen too many reads from you.

[petroleumjelly]

And just to be super-duper clear:

Savvy scum know how to push games in the direction they prefer while being subtle about it.

OhGodMyLife basically said, "Hey guyz, am I the only one who think M&M are scum together?" Although I'm not particularly fond of the question, it was probably already on most people's minds. (I know I was certainly wondering about it about that time.) And given that I know OGML is a complete lush, I can believe he was probably drunk when he posted it. For reference: OGML was the guy was going to run Mixology Mafia, but then he flaked from the site. If that gives you any insight on his daily habits / playing habits.

MrBuddyLee (you), on the other hand, essentially write a focus that technically only mentions scummy things mozamis and Meransiel do a "handful" of times... and yet scummy things

other

players do somehow seem to link back to mozamis and Meransiel in the end. The overall

effect

of your post was focused on mozamis and Meransiel. Basically, it reads to me as a more subtle attempt to keep the focus where you like while you silently keep your vote on OhGodMyLife. And in my opinion, subtle play has a great tendency to point to scum play.

[mozamis]

But what made you have that read and then change it? What a copout.

I should give u more on what i was thinking i guess. Seem to remember Scotty popping up to back up some of MBls attacks -it kinda looked like they were working in tandem maybe. But scot has since fell silent. Frankly, I just dont have enough evidence on him to think he's scum. Guess he's still in my top 5 maybe, but lynching him now would be way too premature.

[mozamis]

jeez cant people be more concise with their points? walls of texts are just a pain in the arse to read. as well as being good camaflage for scum (IWOA-is that the right buzzword?)

[mozamis]

have to say all this protecting/defnding stuff seems balls. why shouldnt i defend people who i think are town? when did that become a scumtell? Cobblers, as we say here in dear ol' Blighty